MENA Daily Fixed Income Report - 31 December

Transcription

1. MENA Daily Fixed Income Report – 31 December 2020 Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” News Updates GCC records $142bn bond, Sukuk issuances in 11M – The total value of issuances in the GCC region reached about $142 billion year-to-date (YTD)-November-2020, almost in line with last year's levels. The full-year 2020 issuances are forecast to marginally exceed last year's levels, according to Kamco Invest's report citing data from Bloomberg. Since May 2020, the GCC government and companies have recorded fixed income instrument maturities worth $38.7 billion, which were largely refinanced. The GCC governments have issued $47.5 billion bonds since the beginning of 2020 and until November 2020, including $35.4 billion during the first half (H1) of 2020. Meanwhile, the governments have issued $28.7 billion Sukuk, which was equally split during the first and second half of 2020. In 2019, the governments' bond and Sukuk issuances amounted to $48.8 billion and $34.3 billion, respectively. As for the GCC companies, $46.2 billion bonds and $19.9 billion Sukuk were issued in 2020 until November 2020, compared to last year’s $45.3 billion bonds and $14.8 billion Sukuks. (Source: Mubasher) GCC Sovereign Yields Sovereigns Maturity Sovereign Ratings Price ∆ (YTD %) 5.40 Yield % Abu Dhabi 2025 0.73 Abu Dhabi 2030 1.55 Abu Dhabi 2050 2.74 Bahrain 2026 3.26 Bahrain 2030 4.77 Bahrain 2047 6.10 Dubai 2029 2.57 Tunisia Central Bank Holds Benchmark Interest Rate – Tunisia’s central bank on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate at 6.25%, and renewed calls for greater reforms critical to drawing in investment and reviving the economy. The bank highlighted the domestic and global challenges resulting from the coronavirus pandemic. It stressed “the need to speed up the carrying out of structural reforms that ensures macroeconomic stability and putting in place of safety mechanisms for vulnerable” Tunisians. The bank also took note of: January-November current account deficit 6.2% versus 7.9% the previous year. Worker remittances up 7% year-on-year in January-November. The bank’s board also extended until the end of September 2021 a measure that allowing deferrals of loan installments for self-employed individuals and firms. (Source: Bloomberg) 2025 1.17 9.64 KSA 2030 2.02 10.86 KSA A1 A-u A 19.00 KSA 2050 3.26 9.76 UAE Aa2 NR AA- -1.11 Oman 2025 4.11 -1.14 AA AA Oman 2029 5.42 -1.04 Abu Dhabi Aa2 16.57 Qatar Aa3 AA- AA- -3.74 Oman 2048 6.73 -0.81 2.58 Qatar 2025 0.84 6.78 Bahrain B2 B+ B+ Oman Ba3 B+ BB- Egypt B2 B B+ Lebanon C SD RD Jordan B1 B+ BB- Turkey B2 B+u BB- Tunisia B2 NR Maturity Yield % Kuwait 2022 0.04 1.34 Qatar 2030 1.62 12.52 Kuwait 2027 1.07 5.97 Qatar 2050 2.81 22.70 Bonds and Sukuk Indices Yield % Duration (yrs) 1D ∆ (%) YTD ∆ (%) Bloomberg GCC FI Index 2.46 8.08 -0.08 8.63 S&P MENA Bond and Sukuk Index 2.01 NA -0.21 9.07 Bloomberg Emerging Markets USD Index 3.51 6.80 0.05 6.43 0.83 7.42 0.27 9.24 Index Name Saudi banks raise investments in gov’t bonds 12% in 11M – Banks Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index operating in Saudi Arabia have raised their investments in governmentissued bonds by 12% or SAR 46.34 billion in the first eleven months of 2020 when compared to 2019. Total bank investments in Saudi bonds reached SAR 430.01 billion during the January-November period, compared with SAR 383.67 billion in 2019, according to data collected by Mubasher based on official figures. In November, Saudi banks’ investments in government bonds rose by 13.17% or SAR 50.06 billion yearly, whereas dropped by 0.36% or SAR 1.57 billion when compared to the previous month. (Source: Mubasher) KSA Price ∆ (YTD %) 6.75 Sovereigns Interbank Rates (%) KIBOR SAIBOR BHIBOR QATAR AEIBOR EURIBOR LIBOR 3 Months 31/12/2020 31/12/2019 1.4375 2.7500 0.8175 2.2314 2.2500 2.6667 0.9825 2.2500 0.3825 2.2086 -0.5380 -0.3830 0.2539 1.9084 6 Months 31/12/2020 31/12/2019 1.6875 2.9375 0.8700 2.2557 2.5333 2.7000 1.0838 2.3500 0.4975 2.1914 -0.5230 -0.3240 0.2571 1.9121 USD Swap Rates 1-Year 2-Year 5-Year 7-Year 10-Year 30-Year Yield % 0.1937 0.2023 0.4372 0.6653 0.9400 1.4170 Currencies 1D ∆ (bps) 0.00 0.03 -0.05 0.13 0.44 0.13 YTD ∆ (%) -89.1 -88.1 -74.7 -63.0 -50.4 -32.2 US Treasuries 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year 12 Months 31/12/2020 31/12/2019 1.9375 3.1875 0.9413 2.3071 2.6833 2.8333 1.3542 2.5333 0.6404 2.2900 -0.4950 -0.2490 0.3413 1.9963 KWD SAR BHD QAR OMR AED USD 0.3033 3.7526 0.3771 3.6414 0.3850 3.6730 UK Guilts Yield % 0.12 0.37 0.92 1.66 1D ∆ (%) 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 Yield % -0.18 -0.08 0.21 0.77 1D ∆ (bps) 0.0000 -0.0027 0.0000 0.0055 0.0000 0.0000 YTD ∆ (%) -0.07 -0.02 0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.00 German Bunds 1D ∆ (%) -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 0.08 Yield % -0.76 -0.76 -0.63 -0.17 1D ∆ (%) -0.02 -0.06 -0.06 -0.31 Moody’s S&P Kuwait A1 AA- Fitch AA B Morocco Ba1 BBB- BB+ US Aaa AA+u AAA UK Aa2 AAu AA- China A1 A+ A+ USD 5Yr CDS 31-Dec 2020 31-Dec 2019 Kuwait 40.69 36.700 KSA 63.77 56.915 Abu Dhabi 36.03 36.090 Dubai 104.06 91.005 Qatar 36.70 36.705 Bahrain 233.58 175.995 Oman 353.60 234.400 Iraq 542.74 383.680 Egypt 330.47 277.420 Morocco 102.56 91.435 Turkey 299.47 282.130 US 11.52 10.810 UK 15.13 16.210 China 26.70 31.205 Japan 14.74 21.042 Germany 9.09 7.080 France 14.42 16.130 Source: Bloomberg This report has been prepared and issued by Kuwait Financial Centre K.P.S.C. (Markaz) , which is regulated by the Capital Markets Authority and the Central Bank of Kuwait. The report is owned by Markaz and is privileged and proprietary and is subject to copyrights. Sale of any copies of this report is strictly prohibited. This report can not be published. A number of sources which include Bloomberg, Zawya, and daily newspapers were utilized in the creation of this report.