GCC Equity Market Monitor - 10 May

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g May 10, 2017 5/10/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% Daily Return YTD Return ‐0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% ‐0.4% Kuwait  ‐ Wtd 0.0% ‐6.2% ‐4.0% ‐3.5% 0.8% 14.8% 4.5% ‐5.5% 7.8% MTD Return ‐1.6% ‐1.3% ‐0.2% 1.4% ‐3.6% ‐2.8% ‐2.0% ‐1.5% Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait ‐ PI Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Qatar Bahrain 0.1% ‐0.5%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 2.148 million (c. US$ 5.6 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Bank Muscat Banking 428,122 19.9% BUY SELL NET 1,917,494 1,917,494  1,941,272 1,941,272  (23,779) Ominvest Inv Hldg Inv Hldg 286 411 286,411 13 3% 13.3% GCC 83,140  136,096  (52,956) Al Anwar Holding Inv Hldg 170,302 7.9% Arabs 6,782  16,362  (9,580) Al Madina Takaful Insurance 140,657 6.6% 140,109  53,794  86,315  Omantel Services 128,880 6.0% OMANIS OTHERS MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,254,634  9.8 1.1 5.9% MSM 30 5,423.26 5,440.93 ‐0.32% ‐1.64% ‐6.22% Financial 3,309,363  8.4 0.9 5.0% Financial 7,953.31 7,986.32 ‐0.41% ‐1.27% 3.67% Industrial 924,423  12.2 1.3 5.4% Industrial 7,412.92 7,417.54 ‐0.06% ‐0.53% 0.08% Services 2,682,038  11.8 1.6 6.8% Services 2,778.93 2,794.89 ‐0.57% ‐1.49% ‐9.15% MSM Shariah 2,489,896  11.0 1.5 6.6% 792.12 793.18 ‐0.13% ‐0.93% ‐8.85% MSM Shariah 5/10/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   % Chg MENA  Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD %QTD %YTD   ‐0.5 ‐4.0 3.2 2.7 ‐1.8 7.2 4.8 ‐0.5 4.2 0.3 ‐0.1 22.0 ‐1.4 ‐1.6 ‐2.4 ‐2.4 12,933.7 0.8 4.0 2,160.3 ‐0.3 ‐1.1 5,721.7 ‐0.1 1.3 24,535.2 ‐0.4 1.5 529.4 ‐0.2 2.3 95,323.4 1.6 0.7 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) 118.8 0.6 ‐1.1 97.0 0.5 ‐0.6 S&P GCC LMC S&P GCC (USD) S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return  S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return  MSCI GCC MSCI GCC MSCI Frontier  MSCI Frontier ex GCC MSCI Arabian Index 991.6 0.2 ‐0.9 ‐2.6 ‐1.2 1,612.4 465 2 465.2 545.5 845.2 507.5 0.2 07 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.7 ‐0.9 ‐1.1 11 0.8 1.6 ‐0.9 ‐1.7 ‐1.4 14 1.6 2.6 ‐1.3 2.6 ‐2.4 24 9.2 12.2 ‐2.2 Index  S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,396.9 20,975.8 6,120.6 66,277.7 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX , 7,342.2 5,398.0 12,749.1 Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia 19,888.0 25,117.7 30 182 7 30,182.7 3,089.4 2,282.1 1,085.7 Closing  % Chg %MTD %QTD Index %YTD  ‐0.2 0.8 2.1 8.1 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,851.0 ‐0.4 1.3 3.2 9.5 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,656.6 0.1 2.3 5.5 12.6 990.6 0.6 1.3 3.4 14.9 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 562 5 562.5 ‐0.1 01 ‐1.3 13 02 0.2 20 2.0 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 228.7 ‐0.2 ‐0.3 0.3 ‐1.2 ‐3.7 ‐6.1 Commodity (Bloomberg)  Commodity  82.2 0.2 ‐2.2 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %YTD   0.5 0.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 3.5 2.0 7.1 6.1 13.7 10.0 0.6 0.3 0.4 1.9 2.5 2.5 0.3 5.4 3.5 2.8 11.0 11.0 0.2 0.9 08 0.8 0.3 ‐0.5 0.4 3.6 2.0 09 0.9 ‐2.1 3.5 ‐2.6 5.2 4.2 19 1.9 ‐4.1 5.6 ‐2.5 4.0 14.2 13 4 13.4 ‐0.5 12.6 ‐5.8 %QTD %YTD %YTD  ‐0.9 2.3 ‐2.8 ‐2.1 3.2 1.0 ‐0.4 ‐0.3 ‐0.2 0.3 ‐3.4 ‐0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 ‐2.7 3.6 ‐1.9 2.8 5.0 2.5 1.2 0.6 ‐0.4 5.1 2.2 0.9 ‐2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 Global Currencies 1,893.4 MSCI EM Index %QTD Asia Pacific Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD ‐0.1 ‐0.2 0.3 1.1 %MTD Europe Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing   % Chg Americas  4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 99.427 1.089 1.371 113.820 1.295 8.884 1.007 6.905 7.786 64.626 0.737 13352.000 3.621 0.385 3.673 3.751 0.305 3.641 0.377 ‐0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 ‐0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 ‐0.4 ‐2.0 0.0 ‐0.3 ‐1.2 ‐0.2 ‐0.1 ‐0.6 ‐1.6 ‐0.2 ‐1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.2 0.0 0.0
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD  NYMEX Crude 46.2 0.7 ‐6.3 ‐9.5 ‐18.2 ICE Brent Crude 49.0 0.6 ‐5.8 ‐8.8 ‐16.5 Crude Oil, Oman  48.0 ‐1.2 ‐5.6 ‐7.5 ‐11.6 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.2 ‐0.6 ‐2.0 ‐1.4 ‐9.9 148.6 ‐0.2 ‐4.0 ‐12.4 ‐20.3 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,222.3 0.1 ‐3.6 ‐2.2 6.1 Silver Spot 16.2 ‐0.1 ‐6.0 ‐11.4 1.6 Platinum Spot  906.6 0.1 ‐4.1 ‐4.6 0.3 Palladium Spot  797.0 0.4 ‐3.6 ‐0.1 16.5 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 864 8 1,864.8 ‐0.5 05 ‐2.0 20 ‐4.5 45 94 9.4 LME Copper‐Spot 5,486.3 0.4 ‐3.9 ‐5.7 ‐0.7 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,609.0 0.7 ‐0.4 ‐5.1 2.0 LME Lead‐Spot 2,170.8 0.2 ‐4.9 ‐6.9 8.6 LME Nickel‐Spot 9 173 5 9,173.5 07 0.7 ‐2.5 25 ‐7.9 79 ‐7.9 79 Steel  US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  610.0 0.0 ‐0.8 ‐1.6 0.2 Agriculture  C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  366 5 366.5 00 0.0 00 0.0 ‐1.4 14 06 0.6 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  429.8 0.1 ‐0.6 ‐2.1 ‐1.0 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  975.0 0.1 2.0 1.9 ‐4.3 Shipping  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  1 007 0 1,007.0 06 0.6 Closing %MTD %QTD %YTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Index  ‐9 2 ‐9.2 ‐22 4 ‐22.4 48 4.8 Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  805.0 ‐0.6 ‐1.8 ‐5.3 Benzene FOB Korea Spot 720.0 ‐5.9 ‐10.6 ‐13.3 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 725.0 ‐5.8 ‐10.5 ‐13.2 Benzene CFR India Spot 730.0 ‐5.8 ‐10.4 ‐13.1 ‐8.5 ‐9.2 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  420.4 ‐10.2 Naphtha C&F Japan  432.8 ‐5.0 ‐7.7 ‐12.8 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 417.4 ‐6.2 ‐10.9 ‐14.1 p g p p Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  46.9 ‐5.1 ‐7.7 ‐12.7 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  1,160.0 ‐4.5 ‐2.5 25.4 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,160.0 0.0 5.9 5.0 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,155.0 0.0 6.0 5.0 790 0 790.0 00 0.0 ‐5.4 54 ‐8.7 87 5.8 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 920.0 ‐1.6 ‐10.7 2EH CFR South East Asia 940.0 ‐1.6 ‐10.5 5.6 DOP CFR Far East Asia 950.0 ‐1.6 ‐1.6 ‐3.6 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  8,580.0 ‐2.8 ‐6.2 ‐12.1 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 1,120.0 ‐0.9 ‐1.8 ‐4.3 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,150.0 ‐0.9 ‐0.9 ‐1.7 y p Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,150.0 , ‐0.9 ‐1.7 1.8 1.3 ‐4.8 1.9 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  1,580.0 UREA Cornbelt 240.0 0.0 ‐4.0 ‐12.7 UREA Middle East 205.0 ‐7.2 ‐3.3 ‐16.3 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 372 8 372.8 35 3.5 06 0.6 80 8.0 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 5/10/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News CBO  Treasury Bills Tender Results  (Source: ONA)  A tender of Government Treasury Bills, issue number 457, was held at the Central Bank of Oman this week with total value of the allotted  treasury bills amounted to RO 77 million, for a maturity period of 91 days, from 10th May until 9th August 2017.  Average accepted price reached 99.731 for every RO 100 while the minimum accepted price arrived at 99.725 per RO 100. The average  discount rate and the average yield reached 1.07906% and 1.08197%, respectively. discount rate and the average yield reached 1.07906% and 1.08197%, respectively.  Note that the interest rate on the Repo operations with CBO is 1.494% for the period from 09/05/2017 to 15/05/2017 while the discount  rate on the Treasury Bills Discounting Facility with CBO is 2.244%, for the same period. Oman raising $3.6 billion from Chinese banks Oman raising $3.6 billion from Chinese banks (Source: Reuters) (Source: Reuters)  Oman is seeking a $3.6 billion five‐year bullet term loan from Chinese banks, as per news sources. Oman’s finance ministry is self‐ arranging the senior unsecured deal, which pays an interest margin of 190bp over Libor.   , p , g two  Bank of China, China Development Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China are the mandated lead arrangers with the latter also acting as bookrunners on the senior unsecured deal. Banks are being invited to participate at three ticket levels.  Mandated lead arrangers with commitments of $500 million or above will earn an all‐in pricing of 210bp over Libor based on an upfront  fee of 100bp, while lead arrangers coming in for $250 million−$499 million receive an all‐in of 206bp over Libor based on an 80bp fee.   Arrangers with commitments of $100 million−$249 million get an all‐in of 202bp over Libor based on a 60bp fee. Commitments are due by  June 2 and signing is scheduled for June 12. Proceeds are for the Oman government's general budgetary purposes. Oman Chlorine‐ Commencement of trial production in Union Chlorine (Source: MSM)  Oman Chlorine Co has announced the trial production of Union Chlorine plant in the Abu Dhabi Industrial Zone has started on 8‐May‐ 17, with a designed capacity of 70 Metric Tons Per day.  Union Chlorine is owned by Oman Chlorine direct investment of 48.8% and 11.1% indirect investment through OIDC. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Al Madina signs MoU for healthcare PPP projects (Source: Oman Observer)  Al Madina Real Estate SAOC (Al Madina) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the ICM Maltauro Group, an Italian conglomerate with interests in developing large commercial complexes, airports, railways, and roads, and F&M Ingegneria, one of the leading Italian multidisciplinary companies providing design, engineering, and project management services in infrastructure, building, and environment domains over the last 35 years.  The terms of the MoU outline the cooperation between the two companies in developing a multi‐specialty hospital project in the Sultanate.  As part of the MoU, opportunities are to be explored across Oman and a proposal will be submitted for the approval from the respective authorities in due course.  Upon finalisation and with necessary approvals in place, the project is expected to be developed under a Public‐Private Partnership (PPP) model. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Sideways movement to prevail, Support seen at 5,400 levels… During the previous trading session, we saw yet another day of mixed closing among the regional markets with Oman and Bahrain continued to reveal negative trend. Oman traded lower by 0.3% and continue to reveal technical weakness. We expect the MSM and the GCC markets to trade sideways movement for the day and also anticipate reduction in overall market participation. MSM continue to remain technically weak and to find support closer to 5,400 levels. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE  News Aldar Properties reports Q1 2017 results (Source: Gulf Business)  Aldar Properties reported a small drop in first quarter profit on Tuesday, and said it is seeing growth opportunities in the middle‐income market. The results come against a slowing economy and weak property market in the oil‐rich capital of the United Arab Emirates.  Aldar made a net profit attributable to shareholders of Dhs637m in Q1 2017 compared with Dhs649.05m in the prior‐year period. Q1 revenue grew 28% to Dhs1.58bn, h b with h Dhs1bn h b off that h coming from f d l development sales l and d Dhs402m h f from recurring revenue.  Despite higher revenue in the quarter, profit fell as deliveries of completed government projects was minimal in the first three months of 2017 compared with the same period last year  Aldar has Ald h awarded d d Dhs2.3bn Dh 2 3b off construction t ti contracts t t so far f this thi year. In I April, A il it launched l h d a six‐tower i t mid‐market id k t project j t including i l di 1,272 1 272 units, three of which have sold out. Tabreed reports Q1 2017 results (Source: The National)  Tabreed said that its Q1 net profit advanced 19% on the back of an expansion of its cooling services across the region. Net profit attributable to the parent rose to Dh75.4 million from Dh63.4m, the company said.  Core chilled water revenue increased by 15% to Dh255.2m compared with Dh222.3m in the same period last year.  The company said that in the first quarter it added more than 20,000 refrigerated tonnes out of which 16,227 refrigerated tonnes were in the United Arab Emirates and 3,800 refrigerated tonnes in Qatar.  The company also said that it appointed Khaled Abdulla Al Qubaisi as chairman to replace Waleed Al Mokarrab Al Muhairi. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC  News Saudi Steel Pipe reports Q1 2017 results (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Steel Pipe Co. (SSP) reported a net profit of SAR 10.2 million in Q1 2017, a 19.8% year‐on‐year rise, mainly attributable to the improvement in the financial results of Global Pipe Company (associate) and TSM Arabia (subsidiary).  On a sequential basis, the company turned to profit in Q1 compared to a net loss of SAR 62 million in the previous quarter. L’Azurde’s reports Q1 2017 results (Source: Argaam)  L’Azurde Company for Jewelry reported a net profit of SAR 21.9 million for Q1‐2017, a 57 percent year‐on‐year (YoY) drop on lower operating revenue and the one‐off foreign exchange gain of SAR 13.7 million in Q1‐2016.  When compared to Q4‐2016, the company swung to net profit in the first quarter of 2017 compared to a net loss of SAR 766,000, backed by higher operating revenues and lower operating expenses. Maaden reports 61% hike in gold output in Q1 (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Arabian Mining Co. (Maaden) has reported a 61% surge in gold production to 71,000 ounces in Q1 2017. This production increase was due to the start of commercial operations in Ad Duwayhi gold mine, owned by Maaden Gold and Base Metals (MGBM), on April 1, 2016.  Continued focus on efficiency and productivity helped Maaden to reduce cash cost in gold by 22% compared to the same quarter last year.  Maaden produced and sold 599,000 tons and 467,000 tons of ammonia, up 97 percent and 127 percent respectively as compared to the same quarter last year. Saudi Vitrified Clay Pipes reports Q1 2017 results (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Vitrified Clay Pipes Co. (SVCP) reported a net profit of SAR 11.9 million for Q1‐2017, a 64.6 percent plunge year‐on‐year (YoY), due to lower sales and an increase in the cost of sales.  The company reported a 164.4% surge in net profit as compared to Q4‐2016, thanks to a decline in the cost of sales and operating expenses. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 5/10/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11