Qatar Market Review And Outlook - 6 April

Transcription

1. ` QSE Index and Volume Regional Indices Qatar (QSE)* Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia# Kuwait Oman Bahrain Close WTD% MTD% YTD% 10,456.01 3,566.35 4,615.23 7,050.91 7,029.80 5,613.35 1,353.36 0.6 2.5 3.9 0.7 0.0 1.1 (0.2) 0.6 2.5 3.9 0.7 0.0 1.1 (0.2) 0.2 1.0 1.5 (2.2) 22.3 (2.9) 10.9 10,391.70 6,000,000 10,344.08 10,280 0 2-Apr 3-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr Volume Market Indicators Value Traded (QR mn) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) QSE Index Week ended Apr 06 , 2017 1,235.6 Week ended Mar 30 , 2017 1,571.5 560,511.9 556,345.3 0.7 40.5 59.2 (31.5) 15,354 20,921 (26.6) 43 44 (2.3) 20:21 23:20 – Volume (mn) Number of Transactions Companies Traded Market Breadth Market Indices Total Return ALL Share Index Banks and Financial Services Industrials Transportation Real Estate Insurance Telecoms Consumer Goods & Services Al Rayan Islamic Index Market Indices Weekly Index Performance 4.5% 6-Apr Close 17,439.54 2,956.17 3,059.86 3,304.50 2,306.64 2,404.69 4,327.96 1,259.17 6,400.88 4,182.30 WTD% 1.3 1.1 1.6 0.1 (0.9) 0.8 1.1 6.0 (0.3) 1.5 MTD% 1.3 1.1 1.6 0.1 (0.9) 0.8 1.1 6.0 (0.3) 1.5 Chg. % (21.4) YTD% 3.3 3.0 5.1 (0.1) (9.5) 7.1 (2.4) 4.4 8.5 7.7 3.9% 2.5% 3.0% 1.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) 341.18 494.64 321.32 4,087.07 497.37 50.79 26.70 Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) 153,916.6 108,293.9# 121,133.6 441,605.4 95,238.0 22,460.6 21,598.3 TTM P/E** 15.5 15.2 18.2 17.3 21.8 11.3 8.9 Bahrain (0.2%) (1.5%) Kuwait Foreign institutions remained bullish with net buying of QR57.5mn vs. net buying of QR98.1mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions turned bullish with net buying of QR19.7mn vs. net selling of QR43.2mn the week before. Foreign retail investors turned bearish with net selling of QR9.3mn vs. net buying of QR12.4mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bearish with net selling of QR67.8mn vs. net selling of QR67.2mn the week before. In 2017 YTD, foreign institutions bought (on a net basis) ~$793mn worth of equities. 10,397.85 10,380 Qatar (QSE)* Trading volume decreased by 32.50% to reach 40.54mn shares versus 59.18mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions decreased by 26.61% to reach 15,354 transactions versus 20,921 transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting for 31.6%, followed by the Banks and Financial Services sector, which accounted for 30.6% of the overall trading volume. Vodafone Qatar (VFQS) was the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 8.7mn shares. 10,456.01 Saudi Arabia Trading value during the week decreased by 21.37% to reach QR1.24bn versus QR1.57bn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 41.6% of the total trading value. The Real Estate sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for 20.4% of the total trading value. MARK was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR232.3 million (mn). 12,000,000 10,466.99 Oman Masraf Al Rayan (MARK), Ooreedo (ORDS) and QNB Group (QNBK) were the primary contributors to the weekly index gains. MARK was the biggest contributor to the index’s weekly increase, adding 59.3 points to the index. ORDS was the second biggest contributor to the increase, tacking on 35.3 points to the index. Moreover, QNBK contributed 25.6 points to the index. On the other hand, Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS) deleted 9.1 points. 10,480 Dubai The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index gained 65.41 points, or 0.63% during the trading week to close at 10,456.01. Market capitalization increased by 0.75% to QR560.5 billion (bn) versus QR556.3bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 44 listed companies, 20 companies ended the week higher, while 21 fell and 3 remained unchanged. Ooreedo (ORDS) was the best performing stock for the week with a gain of 7.1% on 604,393 shares traded. On the other hand, Al Khaleej Takaful Co. (AKHI) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 5.2% on 21,637 shares traded only. Abu Dhabi Market Review and Outlook P/B** Dividend Yield 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.8 3.8 3.8 4.4 3.4 3.4 5.3 5.8 # Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any; Data as of April 5, 2017) Page 1 of 6
2. News Corporate & Economic News  ERES issues Sukuk worth $500mn – With reference to the Ordinary General Assembly's endorsement of Ezdan Holding Group (ERES) of the recommendation of the board of directors to issue Sukuk compatible with Shari’ah with amount ($2bn) or the equivalent in other currencies, either in part or multiple parts, ERES has issued the second phase of Sukuk program with the amount of $500mn 5-year RegS only Sukuk offering. The Sukuk was issued at par with a profit rate of 4.875%, representing a spread of 295bps over 5-year mid-swaps. (QSE)  CBQK’s EGM approves capital hike by 5% to QR4.047bn – Commercial Bank’s (CBQK) shareholders have approved a 5% increase in the company’s capital to QR4.047bn from QR3.85bn at their Extraordinary General Assembly (EGM). Shareholders gave approval to the issuance of one or more global program for the issue of certificates of deposit, US and/or European commercial paper in different currencies directly by the company (rather than through an SPV) up to a maximum amount outstanding at any one time of $5bn or its equivalent in Qatari riyal. The maximum maturity of this will be up to five years less one day for any of the above mentioned issues either through regular markets or in the form of a private placement. (Gulf-Times.com)  Barwa Bank to work with Credit Suisse on merger plans – Barwa Bank appointed Credit Suisse Group as financial adviser to help with a three-way bank merger in Qatar. Barwa and International Bank of Qatar both closely-held are likely to be absorbed by Masraf Al Rayan (MARK), the publicly-traded bank involved in the merger. Masraf Al Rayan has yet to name banks for the deal, the people said, adding that no final agreements have been reached. (Gulf-Times.com)  MARK sets up committee to oversee merger with International Bank of Qatar, Barwa Bank – Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) said a committee has been established to oversee the three-way merger with International Bank of Qatar and Barwa Bank as per an initial timeline. The committee, which has been approved by the three collective boards of directors, would utilize the support of financial and legal consultants with the objective of conducting the necessary studies and evaluations for the merger process in compliance with the Qatar’s laws and regulatory requirements as well as best international practices, said Masraf Al Rayan Chairman and Managing Director Dr Hussain al-Abdullah. (Gulf-Times.com)  QIIK gets nod to issue $700mn Sukuk – Shareholders of QIIK gave their approval for all items on the agenda of the Annual General Assembly Meeting (AGM), including extension of their approval to issue Sukuk up to $700mn, and also the recommendation of the board of directors to distribute cash dividends of QR4 per share, equivalent to 40% of capital. Seeking extension of its approval for the fresh issuance of Sukuk (which is part of $2bn Sukuk program approved in 2013 AGM), and extension of approval to issue Additional Tier1 Sukuk non-convertible into an ordinary shares up to QR3bn (QR1bn issued during 2016) over three years, were some of the important agenda of AGM. (Peninsula Qatar)  QIIK’s JV in Morocco to start work within a short period of time – Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK) expects its joint venture bank in Morocco, Umnia, to commence operations within a short period of time, according to its Chairman and Managing Director Sheikh Dr Khalid bin Thani bin Abdullah alThani. Sheikh Dr Khalid said, “We expect this investment will achieve good results based on the detailed studies done in the Moroccan market for Islamic banks.” On the bank’s expansion plans outside of Qatar, he said, “We meticulously examine any available opportunity and conduct feasibility studies, especially in terms of risks.” (Gulf-Times.com)  QGMD’s net loss widens to QR5.1mn in 4Q2016 – Qatari German Company for Medical Devices’ (QGMD) net loss widened to QR5.1mn in 4Q2016 as compared to net loss of QR1.2mn in 3Q2016. However, for the year 2016, net loss narrowed to QR10.4mn as compared to net loss of QR11.4mn in 2015. Revenue came in at QR3.5mn in 4Q2016, representing an increase of 4.7% QoQ. (QSE)  QNBK to disclose its 1Q2017 financial statements on April 11 – QNB Group (QNBK) announced it would disclose its 1Q2017 financial statements on April 11, 2017. (QSE)  QOIS to disclose its 1Q2017 financial statements on April 25 – Qatar Oman Investment Company (QOIS) announced it would disclose its 1Q2017 financial statements on April 25, 2017. (QSE)  GWCS to disclose its 1Q2017 financial statements on April 18 – Gulf Warehousing Company (GWCS) announced it would disclose its 1Q2017 financial statements on April 18, 2017. (QSE)  QFLS changes disclosure date of 1Q2017 financial statements – Qatar Fuel Company (QFLS) announced that it has changed its disclosure date for 1Q2017 financial statements to April 26, 2017 instead of April 27, 2017. (QSE)  QIBK to disclose its 1Q2017 financial statements on April 16 – Qatar Islamic bank (QIBK) announced it would disclose its 1Q2017 financial statements on April 16, 2017. (QSE)  AKHI to disclose its 1Q2017 financial statements on April 27 – Al-Khaleej Takaful Group (AKHI) announced its intent to disclose its 1Q2017 financial statements on April 27, 2017. (QSE)  QISI’s AGM endorses all items on its agenda and approves the distribution of 35% cash dividend – Qatar Islamic Insurance Company (QISI) announced the results of the Ordinary General Assembly Meetings (AGM) held on March 29, 2017. The shareholders have approved the board of directors’ proposal to distribute to the shareholders cash dividends at the rate of 35% of the nominal value of the share equivalent to QR3.5 per share. (QSE) Page 2 of 6
3. Qatar Stock Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners 9 .0% 0.0% 7.1% 6.0% -2.0% -2.1% 3.9% -2.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.4% 2.4% -3.0% -4.0% 0.0% Ooredoo Qatar Industrial Manufacturing United Development Medicare Group Barwa Real Estate -5.0% -5.2% -6.0% Al Khaleej Takaful Qatar International Insurance Islamic Bank Doha Bank Milaha Commercial Bank of Qatar Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) 270.0 8.7 9.0 232.3 180.0 5.9 6.0 92.5 90.0 82.4 77.7 Vodafone Qatar Barwa Real Estate 71.3 0.0 Masraf Al Rayan Ezdan Real Estate QNB Group Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) 80% 60% 29.02% 9.91% 21.65% 2.7 3.0 0.0 Vodafone Qatar Ezdan Real Estate Masraf Al Rayan National Leasing 39.43% Mazaya Qatar 24.37% Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) 48 Non-Qatari 433 10.67% 481 20.05% 40% 20% 2.6 Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded 100% 5.6 (48) 44.91% Qatari 803 755 0% Buy Sell Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) (200) - 200 Net Investment 400 Total Sold 600 800 1,000 Total Bought Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Page 3 of 6
4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX Source : Bloomberg The Index closed flattish another week but managed to gain some points (65.41 points to be exact) and pushing the index to 10,456.01. This subdued attitude to the Index added more idleness on the technical indicators; which means indecision remains the main theme among market participants. Support level remains at 10,300, and resistance level at the 11,500 level. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal. Page 4 of 6
5. Com pany Nam e Price April 06 % Change WTD % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Qatar National Bank 148.50 1.64 0.28 137,161 11.3 2.6 Qatar Islamic Bank Div. Yield 2.1 102.10 (0.20) (1.73) 24,126 11.8 1.7 4.7 Commercial Bank of Qatar 33.25 (2.06) 2.31 12,816 40.4 0.7 N/A Doha Bank 30.45 (3.03) (9.64) 7,867 9.8 0.9 9.5 Al Ahli Bank 34.05 0.15 (8.33) 6,822 10.8 1.6 2.8 Qatar International Islamic Bank 65.10 (4.96) 3.66 9,854 12.6 1.5 6.1 Masraf Al Rayan 42.55 0.95 13.16 31,913 15.4 2.5 4.7 Al Khalij Commercial Bank 14.61 0.07 (14.06) 5,260 12.3 0.7 5.1 Qatar First Bank 8.60 (0.35) (16.50) 1,720 N/A 1.0 N/A National Leasing 18.70 (1.84) 22.06 925 183.6 0.9 2.7 Dlala Holding 22.54 (0.35) 4.89 640 164.0 2.5 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 9.70 (0.92) (2.51) 306 22.8 1.0 5.2 Islamic Holding Group Banking and Financial Services 67.00 0.60 9.84 379 91.5 2.7 1.5 Zad Holding 89.90 0.45 0.78 1,176 11.6 1.4 4.5 9.95 0.51 (1.49) 115 N/A 1.5 N/A Salam International Investment 10.55 0.00 (4.52) 1,206 10.6 0.7 7.6 Medicare Group 98.00 2.40 55.80 2,758 42.4 2.7 1.8 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 30.00 0.00 9.29 188 44.1 1.4 3.3 134.70 (0.96) 0.98 13,393 15.2 1.9 4.8 Widam Food Co. 64.40 (1.23) (5.29) 1,159 N/A 3.8 5.4 Mannai Corp. 79.90 (0.13) (0.13) 3,645 6.8 1.4 5.0 166.80 (0.95) (4.96) 3,336 16.8 2.4 5.4 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices Qatar Fuel Al Meera Consumer Goods Consum er Goods and Services 239,789 26,976 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 45.40 3.89 2.02 2,157 11.1 1.4 6.6 Qatar National Cement 79.20 0.76 1.30 5,176 10.9 1.7 4.6 110.70 0.36 (5.79) 66,974 22.7 2.0 3.6 61.40 0.33 4.96 7,634 27.6 3.0 1.6 215.80 (1.91) (4.93) 23,738 15.4 2.9 3.5 Aamal 14.60 1.74 7.12 9,198 19.8 1.2 N/A Gulf International Services 28.15 (0.53) (9.49) 5,231 79.2 1.4 3.6 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Industrials 14.90 (0.20) (5.70) 18,719 18.8 1.3 4.0 Qatar Insurance Doha Insurance 71.40 1.56 (3.17) 19,800 17.8 2.4 1.8 16.75 0.66 (7.97) 838 11.6 0.8 3.6 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 39.10 (0.26) (16.81) 3,422 15.6 0.5 3.8 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 20.57 (5.21) (2.51) 525 40.0 1.0 4.9 Qatar Islamic Insurance Insurance 62.60 (0.63) 23.72 939 14.8 2.7 5.6 United Development 20.29 2.99 (1.74) 7,184 11.5 0.7 6.2 Barw a Real Estate 36.60 2.38 10.08 14,242 8.9 0.8 6.8 Ezdan Real Estate 15.80 0.00 4.57 41,909 23.0 1.4 3.2 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development Real Estate 14.21 (1.52) (1.25) 1,567 21.0 1.1 N/A 103.50 7.14 1.67 33,153 15.1 1.5 3.4 9.42 0.86 0.53 7,964 N/A 1.7 N/A Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 74.60 (2.48) (21.97) 8,544 11.9 0.6 4.7 Gulf Warehousing Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 52.70 0.57 (5.89) 3,088 14.8 2.0 3.0 21.20 (0.24) (8.19) 11,745 12.3 2.2 4.7 Industries Qatar Qatari Investors Group Qatar Electricity and Water Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecom s Transportation Qatar Exchange 138,827 25,523 64,902 41,117 23,377 560,512 Source: Bloomberg Page 5 of 6
6. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi , CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa Mohamed Abo Daff QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6589 PO Box 24025 mohd.abodaff@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 6 of 6