Kuwait Financial Centre Markaz Weekly Wrap - 5 November

Transcription

1. Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” Weekly Wrap 05 Nov 2017 Equity Watch Indicators MENA Markets Saudi (TASI) Turkey ISE National 100 Abu Dhabi (ADI) Kuwait SE WT.INDEX Qatar(QE Index) Dubai (DFMGI) Morocco (CAI) Egypt (Hermes) Jordan (Amman) Bahrain (BAX) Oman(Muscat SM) Lebanon (BSE) Emerging Markets MSCI EM Index MSCI FM Index Shanghai A Share Index SENSEX Index (India) S&P GCC Composite Developed Markets MSCI WORLD Index US (S&P 500) UK (FTSE) Japan (Nikkei 225) Germany (DAX) * M. Cap (USD Bn) Last Close WTD % MTD % YTD % 439 181 133 99 91 84 66 42 22 20 14 9 6,957 111,293 4,465 419 8,146 3,622 12,452 1,355 3,951 1,283 5,040 1,167 0.66 3.16 -0.06 -2.36 0.22 -0.79 0.40 2.58 -0.20 0.43 1.65 0.89 0.32 1.04 -0.32 -0.23 -0.23 -0.37 0.64 0.21 0.59 0.48 0.59 0.86 -3.5 42.4 -1.8 10.2 -21.9 2.6 6.9 24.4 -2.9 5.1 -12.8 -3.7 4 9 6 -0 0 12 30 73 -4 0 7 4 14 10 11 15 12 10 20 13 14 9 10 7 4.5 2.9 5.4 3.4 5.1 4.8 3.4 2.5 4.7 5.2 6.0 7.5 1,126 1.44 1,079 -0.62 3,531 -1.32 33,686 1.59 97 0.15 0.63 -0.09 -0.65 1.42 0.13 30.6 21.0 8.6 26.5 -2.2 9 2 -12 2 4 15 15 16 25 15 2.3 3.2 1.8 1.2 3.4 0.43 0.49 0.90 0.73 1.60 16.8 15.6 5.8 17.9 17.1 5 10 14 0 7 22 23 20 18 15 2.4 2.3 3.8 1.6 2.5 5,013 119 5,011 908 894 37,588 23,283 2,734 3,532 1,421 2,045 2,588 7,560 22,539 13,441 0.53 0.26 0.74 2.41 2.34 2016 P/E Div. % TTM Yield - P/E & Div. Yield for GCC as per Zawya US Tres. 10yr 2.343 2.431 -0.088 8.78 Germany 10yr 0.360 0.208 0.152 -198.3 9.55 KIBOR Yield Curve (%) U.K Japan 10yr 10yr 1.265 0.051 1.250 0.041 0.016 0.010 -107.8 -229.2 8.44 9.82 India 10yr 6.861 6.610 0.251 451.8 6.94 China 10yr 3.885 3.005 0.880 154.1 8.21 Deposit rate S&P GCC MENA* 3.29 3.38 -0.090 94.7 n/a Close WTD % MTD % YTD % 1,269.46 -0.25 -0.14 10.2 16.80 -0.05 0.68 5.5 62.07 2.70 1.85 9.2 428.19 0.00 -1.76 1.4 9.14 1.16 114.06 0.30 0.35 -6.73 0.01 -0.34 -0.10 -0.09 -10.22 0.32 -0.39 -0.12 0.20 2016 Price Close 1,151.46 15.934 56.82 422.27 2016% 9 16 52 13 14.04 1.0513 116.87 0.3054 0.321 -23 -3 -3 1 -3 -34.9 -9.4 2.5 0.9 -8.6 Blue Chip Watch M. % Cap W Last (USD T Bn) D Saudi Arabia (SAR) SABIC 80 99.4 1.0 STC 36 67.3 -0.9 AL-RAJHI BANK 28 64.7 0.8 SAUDI ELECTRIC 27 24.2 2.9 NCB 26 48.6 3.3 United Arab Emirates (AED) ETISALAT 42 17.8 -0.6 FIRST AD BK 31 10.3 -1.9 DP WORLD 20 24.3 -1.0 EMAAR PROP 16 8.3 -2.8 EMIRATES NBD 13 8.4 1.8 Kuwait (KWD) NBK 15 0.76 -1.7 KFH 11 0.58 -2.8 ZAIN 7 0.48 -6.4 P WARE H_AGLTY 3 0.77 -8.1 BOUBYAN 3 0.44 -4.6 Qatar (QAR) QNB 30 121.1 -0.7 INDUSTRIE QAT 15 95.8 0.8 OOREDOO 7 87.8 2.6 MASARAF AL RAY 7 35.2 -0.6 EZDAN HOLIDING 7 9.5 0.6 Companies % M T D -3.5 -4.9 -2.1 0.9 -5.5 % P PAT (Mn) Y 2016 / Div % Gr T % E yield H12017 YoY D (ttm) 8.7 19 -7.2 6 2.7 21 7.8 42 14.0 -16 16 14 12 11 10 6.9 6.7 2.4 4.3 2.7 8,940 4,904 4,403 7,167 5,120 17 12 20 11 6 4.5 4.3 1.6 1.8 4.8 4,061 3,705 2,837 3,894 -6 40 15 5 0.1 -3.0 -6.3 -12.7 -0.2 15 17 12 16 23 3.7 2.6 7.4 1.8 1.3 165 82 82 31 22 9 15 0 12 16 6,654 1,610 1,097 1,020 1,155 7 -40 -25 -3 25 23.1 -13 18.8 10 17.1 17 37.3 29 16.7 -6 -0.7 -18.2 12 4.4 -18.5 6 6.0 -19 36 -5.1 -1 0 -9.5 -31 -5 9 22 4.0 5.7 5.3 2.6 4.2 4.0 5.7 5.3 Note: 1 Weekend Details – Turkey, Morocco & Lebanon – Saturday & Sunday; MENA, Ex-Turkey, Morocco & Lebanon – Friday & Saturday; US, European & Emerging Markets – Saturday & Sunday. Markaz Research can now be accessed on Bloomberg. Type “MRKZ” <Go>. US 3M Rate % Diff FY16 Diff 1.34 0.06 1.34 0.55 1.34 -0.24 1.34 0.04 1.34 -1.15 1.34 0.91 1.34 -1.78 1.34 -0.65 1.34 -2.24 1.34 -1.66 Next FOMC Mt Date: Dec -0.14 0.65 -0.45 0.75 -0.74 0.80 -1.41 -0.65 -1.90 -1.20 12/13 5 year CDS (USD) Watch (bps) Country Current 2016 Saudi Arabia Abu-Dhabi Dubai Qatar Oman Bahrain 82.30 62.21 132.39 101.57 210.50 243.93 113.67 67.98 159.77 88.2 263.5 302.72 52-week High Low 143.98 82.30 76.81 38.72 167.35 103.91 124.66 56.64 276.00 178.00 374.80 209.09 Corporate Earnings Watch 14 7 8 396 1 2.9 -5.3 17 1.0 3.1 26 8.0 38.5 -14 -2.1 16.5 25 -0.4 -1.6 15 3M Int rates % Kuwait 1.40 Saudi 1.89 UAE 1.10 Qatar 1.38 Oman 0.19 Bahrain 2.25 Euro -0.44 UK 0.69 Switzerland -0.90 Japan -0.32 Last FOMC Meeting Date: Oct 31/ Nov 01 Commodity/Currency/Volatility Watch Precious Metals Gold $/oz Silver $/oz IPE Brent $/bbl CRB Commodity Index Volatility & Currency CBOE VIX index USD (1 EUR =) Yen (1 USD =) KWD (1 USD =) KWD (1 EUR =) US Treasuries (In %) Interest Rate Watch Fixed Income Watch (*Bond & Sukuk Index) Government Bonds YTM % 2016-End, % YTD Chng, % Spread (bps) Duration (yrs) Yield Curve Watch LIBOR (In %) Company Name BUPA BUDGET SACO BAWAN Earnings Type 9M 9M 9M 9M Country KSA KSA KSA KSA Currency SAR(Mn) SAR(Mn) SAR(Mn) SAR(Mn) LFY 399.45 127.94 93.91 53.78 PFY 438.96 139.07 86.95 103.42 % Chg -9.0 -8.0 8.0 -48.0 News & Views 15  5 -5.9 0.3 -6.1 17 world’s 17 second-largest 4.5 The UAE, the Arab economy, has the capacity to slow 1.7 -14fiscal 18consolidation 1.4 down1.1 the 22.2 pace of to offset a potential deceleration of the 1.5 1.8 8.2 2 11 economy because of low oil prices, according to the Institute of International 9 1.9 Finance. 1.9 The 7.1UAE26economy, 11 4.2 the most diversified in the Arabian Gulf region, is 15 forecast to slow to 1.4 per cent in 2017 from 3 per cent last year, but expand at 2.8 per cent in 2018, the Washington-based institute said.  European syndicated bond sales reached €1.13 trillion Nov 1st, surpassing 2016 totals with two months left in this year. Ultra-low interest rates and European Central Bank asset purchases have buoyed the European bond market, attracting overseas investors.  The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to raise interest rates to 0.5% from 0.25%, the first increase since July 2007. Governor Mark Carney indicated that more increases are likely over the next few years. This report has been prepared and issued by Kuwait Financial Centre K.P.S.C (Markaz), which is regulated by the Capital Markets Authority and the Central Bank of Kuwait. The report is owned by Markaz and is privileged and proprietary and is subject to copyrights. Sale of any copies of this report is strictly prohibited. This report cannot be quoted without the prior written consent of Markaz. Any user after obtaining Markaz permission to use this report must clearly mention the source as “Markaz “. This Report is intended to be circulated for general information only and should not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but in no way are warranted by us as to its accuracy or completeness. Markaz has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report. For further information, please contact ‘Markaz’ at P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095, Kuwait. Tel: 00965 1804800 Fax: 00965 22450647. Email: research@markaz.com 7.2