Treasury Brief - 7 March

Transcription

1. TREASURY MM ORNING BRIEF TREASURY ORNING BRIEF 07 March 2017 Treasury Sales +44 207 648 7786/89 - Reuters BACM Market Report Markets Not much in store for today, Eurozone GDP and U.S Trade Balance the picks of a dull economic calendar. European Indices initially looked like ticking higher , so far only the FTSE is holding on to those early gains and that can be put down to a declining GBP. Peers return to the House of Lords today to debate the article 50 bill once more , chances are Pm Theresa May will again feel like Kevin the Teenager, government at risk of a second defeat. Speculation is rife Peers will impose another amendment to the legislation inserting a requirement for May to hold a "Meaningful vote" in parliament, a huge sigh, shrug of the shoulders , hair flopping over her face and a shout of "it's so unfair!". There's no question that any of this will stop article 50 but the white noise is palpable, no doubt an irritant to the PM, as it is to a heavy looking Cable. WTi Crude Oil is a little higher this morning. April delivery costing around $53.30 a barrel, Iraq said it was ready to cut production in the second half of this year if OPEC decides to extend a policy limiting output, trouble is markets interest to take Oil higher is comparable to that of Kevin the Teenager when asked to wash his father's car. Gold remains at the lower end of the recent trend, March rate hike expectations keeping the precious metal heavy, support at $1,220 an ounce holding. EM Credit Core Bond Yields mixed this morning , 10 Year Treasury and Gilt yields are making moves higher ,2.507% and 1.217% respectively, EGB 10 Year yield trading lower at 0.33% no doubt political events in France having impact. As for EM? a better start to the day sums it up. Turkey 5 Year CDS tighter below 240, South African 5 Year insurance stable at 191. The recent Eurobond 10 year issues from Turkey and Egypt are both regaining composure, value seen. Foreign Exchange The dollar continues to find support, to be expected given current circumstances. Against the greenback the EUR is holding better than GBP. EM currencies also holding their own, TRY doing better as Central Bank tightens funding. ZAR gives up some gains but still below 13.00 even as GDP disappoints. EUR/USD support 1.0570 1.0550 resistance 1.0640 1.0675 GBP/USD support 1.2200 1.2180 resistance 1.2250 1.2300 Economic Indicators Area EC EC US CA CA Data GDP SA QoQ GDP SA YoY Trade Balance Int'l Merchandise Trade Ivey Purchasing Managers Index Date Q4 Q4 Jan Jan Feb Previous 0.4% 1.7% -$44.3b 0.92b 57.2 Expected 0.4% 1.7% -$48.5b 0.75b 58.5 Today's Tipples  Warba Bank offering a USD Perp non-call five year Sukuk  South African GDP remains at 0.7% YoY, annualized QoQ misses expectations posting -0.3%  Ghana and Iraq both signal willingness to extend production curbs  Nigeria expected to exit recession in 2017  RBA left rate unchanged at 1.5% as expected WWW.BACB.CO.UK
2. FX Markets Bond Markets GBP /USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/EUR Close 1.2236 1.0582 113.89 1.1564 Today 1.2206 1.0576 113.92 1.1542 USD/CHF USD/MAD USD/TND USD/LYD USD / TRY USD/NGN USD/ZAR 1.0123 10.0933 2.3046 1.4276 3.7095 314.81 13.02 1.0138 10.0965 2.3071 1.4339 3.6860 314.85 12.9810 Close 56.01 5843.75 1225.29 17.78 1876.50 458.50 19.15 Today 56.17 5843.75 1224.41 17.72 1876.50 458.50 18.96 US 10 Year UK 10 Year GER 10 Year Today 2.50 1.21 0.32 Equity Markets FTSE 100 S&P 500 DOW JONES Euro Stoxx Nikkei Shanghai Comp Close 7350.12 2375.31 20954.34 3387.46 19379.14 3233.87 Today 7360.28 3386.30 Commodities Brent Crude Copper Gold Silver Aluminium Wheat Sugar This document has been prepared for information purposes only and is issued by British Arab Commercial Bank plc (BACB). It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication only. It does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue, or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire, securities in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this document, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. Any information contained in this document does not take into account any particular investment objectives, or other financial situation which may be relevant to any particular investor to whom this information may be sent. As a result, investors using the information should assess whether it is appropriate in light of their own individual circumstances before acting on it. The information in this document is based on information obtained from sources believed by BACB to be reliable, but BACB does not represent or warrant, nor accepts responsibility, as to its completeness or accuracy. If you are to rely on the information you are strongly recommended to take your own independent advice. The information on which this document is based may change and BACB is under no obligation to update the information. Sources of information obtained from third parties are cited as appropriate. Copyright (c) British Arab Commercial Bank plc 2013, ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, or on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of British Arab Commercial Bank plc. British Arab Commercial Bank plc Registered Office: 8-10 Mansion House Place, London EC4N 8BJ. Registered in England Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority - Firm Reference Number 204564 WWW.BACB.CO.UK