GCC Equity Market Monitor - 1 June

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g June 1, 2017 6/1/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return MTD Return Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait ‐ PI 0.4% ‐6.2% ‐1.7% 1 7% 0.0% ‐4.7% ‐2.0% 2 0% 0.0% ‐5.4% ‐2.2% 2 2% ‐1.7% ‐2.6% ‐2.1% 2 1% 0.9% 18.0% ‐0.8% 0 8% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research, MTD pertains to May 2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Kuwait Kuwait  ‐ Wtd 0.6% 6.4% ‐0.9% 0 9% Qatar Bahrain ‐1.6% ‐5.1% ‐1.6% 1 6% 0.0% 8.1% ‐1.2% 1 2%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 4.345 million (c. US$ 11.3 million) Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Figures In RO Al Madina Takaful Insurance 724,865 16.7% BUY SELL NET 2,780,004 2,780,004  3,756,432 3,756,432  (976,428) Bank Nizwa Bank Nizwa Banking 578 633 578,633 13 3% 13.3% GCC 350,060  382,333  (32,273) Omantel Services 460,389 10.6% Arabs 67,886  93,486  (25,600) Al Anwar Holding Invs/Hldg 425,977 9.8% 1,146,632  112,331  1,034,301  Al Madina Investment Invs/Hldg 304,047 7.0% OMANIS OTHERS MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,249,364  13.1 1.1 5.9% MSM 30 5,421.95 5,402.44 0.36% ‐1.66% ‐6.24% Financial 3,355,529  8.5 0.9 5.0% Financial 8,061.56 8,018.60 0.54% 0.07% 5.08% Industrial 907,342  12.9 1.3 5.5% Industrial 7,294.88 7,274.35 0.28% ‐2.12% ‐1.52% Services 2,645,936  62.0 1.7 6.9% Services 2,771.42 2,760.80 0.38% ‐1.76% ‐9.39% MSM Shariah 2,449,584  13.1 1.5 6.7% 793.19 791.74 0.18% ‐0.80% ‐8.73% MSM Shariah 6/1/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   % Chg MENA  Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD %QTD %YTD   2.7 ‐3.3 2.8 1.4 ‐2.0 9.7 8.1 0.2 3.8 ‐1.0 ‐0.4 24.8 ‐1.2 ‐1.7 ‐2.2 ‐2.5 13,339.6 0.8 0.0 2,175.2 0.7 0.0 5,698.5 ‐0.1 0.0 24,210.0 0.8 0.1 528.0 ‐0.1 0.0 97,541.6 0.2 0.0 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) 119.0 ‐0.4 0.0 96.9 ‐0.3 0.0 S&P GCC LMC S&P GCC (USD) S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return  S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return  MSCI GCC MSCI GCC MSCI Frontier  MSCI Frontier ex GCC MSCI Arabian Index 1,001.0 ‐0.9 0.0 ‐1.6 ‐0.2 1,628.3 464 4 464.4 561.5 866.8 507.2 ‐0.9 ‐0.5 05 0.3 0.3 ‐0.4 0.1 00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.8 ‐1.6 16 4.5 5.2 ‐1.4 3.6 ‐2.6 26 12.4 15.0 ‐2.3 Index  S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,411.8 21,008.7 6,198.5 62,711.5 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX , 7,520.0 5,283.6 12,615.1 Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia 19,877.4 25,763.5 31 184 4 31,184.4 3,103.4 2,344.4 1,053.3 Closing  % Chg %MTD %QTD Index %YTD  0.1 0.0 3.1 9.2 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,877.5 0.3 2.8 4.7 11.0 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,685.2 0.5 4.1 7.3 14.6 MSCI EM Index 1,005.3 ‐0.6 0.0 4.9 16.6 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 580 6 580.6 03 0.3 19 1.9 34 3.4 53 5.3 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 230.5 ‐0.1 0.5 1.1 ‐0.4 ‐2.9 ‐5.3 Commodity (Bloomberg)  82.9 0.1 0.1 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %YTD   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 1.7 4.9 ‐3.5 7.7 6.3 15.1 4.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 3.1 2.5 5.3 8.7 9.9 1.2 0.4 01 0.1 ‐0.4 ‐0.1 ‐2.0 1.2 0.4 01 0.1 ‐0.4 ‐0.1 0.0 5.1 6.9 53 5.3 ‐3.7 8.5 ‐5.4 4.0 17.1 17 1 17.1 0.0 15.7 ‐8.6 %QTD %YTD %YTD  ‐3.3 5.5 ‐1.3 0.3 2.5 3.3 3.5 1.4 ‐0.3 0.6 ‐3.0 0.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 ‐5.1 6.9 ‐0.4 5.4 4.3 4.8 5.2 2.2 ‐0.4 5.4 2.7 1.3 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 Global Currencies 1,911.7 Commodity  %QTD Asia Pacific Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD 0.0 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐2.0 %MTD Europe Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing   % Chg Americas  4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 97.038 1.124 1.350 111.010 1.287 8.687 0.969 6.795 7.791 64.443 0.740 13305.000 3.527 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.304 3.642 0.377 0.1 0.0 0.0 ‐0.2 ‐0.2 0.0 ‐0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 ‐0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 ‐0.2 ‐0.2 0.0 ‐0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 ‐0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD  Index  Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  Benzene FOB Korea Spot 815.0 755.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 760.0 ‐1.3 ‐6.2 ‐9.0 Benzene CFR India Spot 765.0 ‐1.3 ‐6.1 ‐8.9 ‐7.5 ‐8.2 NYMEX Crude 48.7 0.8 0.8 ‐5.2 ‐14.1 ICE Brent Crude 51.2 0.8 0.8 ‐5.2 ‐13.0 Crude Oil, Oman  49.7 ‐2.6 ‐0.5 ‐4.2 ‐8.4 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.1 0.6 0.6 ‐6.8 ‐13.9 161.0 0.8 0.8 ‐4.5 ‐12.9 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,266.8 ‐0.2 ‐0.2 1.4 9.9 Silver Spot 17.3 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐5.2 8.7 Platinum Spot  946.3 ‐0.4 ‐0.4 ‐0.5 4.7 Palladium Spot  813.5 ‐0.3 ‐0.3 1.9 18.7 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 925 8 1,925.8 02 0.2 00 0.0 ‐1.4 14 13 0 13.0 LME Copper‐Spot 5,657.8 0.4 0.0 ‐2.7 2.4 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,587.0 ‐1.0 0.0 ‐5.9 1.1 LME Lead‐Spot 2,099.3 0.5 0.0 ‐9.9 5.0 LME Nickel‐Spot 8 922 0 8,922.0 ‐1.7 17 00 0.0 ‐10.4 10 4 ‐10.5 10 5 Steel  US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  575.0 ‐0.7 0.0 ‐5.7 ‐5.4 Agriculture  C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  371 8 371.8 ‐0.1 01 ‐0.1 01 00 0.0 21 2.1 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  430.5 0.3 0.3 ‐1.9 ‐0.9 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  917.8 0.2 0.2 ‐4.1 ‐9.9 00 0.0 ‐32 3 ‐32.3 ‐8 6 ‐8.6 Shipping  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  878 0 878.0 ‐2 4 ‐2.4 %MTD %QTD %YTD ‐0.6 ‐6.2 ‐4.1 ‐9.0 Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Closing 0.6 ‐1.3 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  425.1 ‐2.2 Naphtha C&F Japan  436.5 ‐4.2 ‐6.9 ‐12.1 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 429.8 0.3 ‐8.3 ‐11.6 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  47.3 ‐4.3 ‐6.9 ‐11.9 ‐6.7 20.0 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  1,110.0 ‐8.6 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 980.0 ‐15.5 ‐10.5 ‐11.3 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 975.0 ‐15.6 ‐10.6 ‐11.4 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot 860 0 860.0 89 8.9 30 3.0 ‐0.6 06 9.8 Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 955.0 2.1 ‐7.3 2EH CFR South East Asia 975.0 2.1 ‐7.1 9.6 DOP CFR Far East Asia 985.0 2.1 2.1 0.0 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  9,125.0 ‐0.2 ‐0.3 ‐6.6 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 1,090.0 ‐3.5 ‐4.4 ‐6.8 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,110.0 ‐4.3 ‐4.3 ‐5.1 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,130.0 ‐2.6 ‐3.4 0.0 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  1,600.0 2.6 ‐3.6 3.2 UREA Cornbelt 225.0 ‐6.3 ‐10.0 ‐18.2 UREA Middle East 210.0 ‐5.0 ‐0.9 ‐14.3 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 350 5 350.5 ‐2.6 26 ‐5.4 54 15 1.5 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 6/1/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Fitch rates sovereign Sukuk ‘BBB’ (Source: Oman Tribune)  Fitch Ratings has assigned final ratings of ‘BBB’ to the Sultanate’s trust certificate issuance programme and US dollar‐denominated sovereign global Sukuk trust certificates. The ratings are in line with the expected ratings of ‘BBB (exp)’ assigned last week and with the same long‐term foreign‐currency issuer default rating and stable outlook.  Oman Sukuk, a closed joint stock company, is the issuer, trustee, purchaser, seller and lessor under the Sukuk documentation. The rating is driven solely by the Sultanate’s IDR of ‘BBB’ with stable outlook, which Fitch published on January 3, the report says. The rating is based on the view that a default of these senior unsecured obligations would reflect a default of Oman in accordance with the agency’s rating definition.  Fitch has not considered any underlying assets or collateral provided, as ‘Fitch believe the issuer’s ability to satisfy payments due on the certificates will ultimately depend on the Omani government satisfying its unsecured payment obligations to the issuer under the transaction d documents’ t’ Real Estate Transactions Value data ‐ April 2017 (Source: ONA)  The value of traded contracts in real estate sector stood at RO 971.4 million in April 2017, comprising a decline by 76.8% compared with the same period in the previous year, year according to the official data  The collected fees stood at RO 30.3 million, increased by 20.8% while the value of traded sale contracts during April 2017 stood at RO 442.9 million, an increase of 11.9%.  The number of sale contracts duringg April p 2017 stood at 21,675, , , comprising p g a decline 19.4% compared p with 26,883 , contracts duringg the same period in the previous year.  The value of mortgage contracts fell by 85.7% to register RO 542 million compared to RO 3,800.1 million during the same period last year. The number of mortgage contracts stood at 7,405 comprising a decline by 16.9%.  The value of the exchanged contracts stood at more than RO 6.5 million, comprising a rise by 194.5% in the same period in 2016, which worth RO 2.2 million. The number of exchanged contracts comprised a rise by 14.4% to stood at 317 as at the end of April 2017 compared with 277 contracts during the last year.  The number of title deeds registered for the first time during April 2017 stood at 83,307 comprising a fall by 4.8%, compared to the same period in 2016, 2016 which stood at 87,489 87 489 title deeds. deeds GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Phoenix Power ‐ Litigation Settlement in relation to the Final Power Claim (Source: MSM)  Phoenix Power Co SAOG has given updates to the statements made by the company in its IPO Prospectus concerning the litigation instigated by Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co. Ltd. (the EPC Contractor) against the Company relating to the delay of Final Power (the Claim), the company announces that an agreement to settle the Claim has been reached between the two parties.  The settlement agreement obliges the Company to pay a settlement sum of $11.8 million (c. RO 4.5 million) to the EPC Contractor.  The Company clarifies that in settling the Claim, the Company’s ability to pay dividends to shareholders will be impacted from January 2018. The settlement is not likely to have an adverse impact on the Company’s profit and loss statement for 2017 and onwards.  per the IPO p prospectus, p , the company p y has estimated to p payy dividends of RO 0.0047 p per share duringg Jan 2018,, this would be impacted p As p negatively. Commercial guidelines being drafted for electricity spot market (Source: Oman Observer)  Procedures ggoverningg the operation p of an electricityy spot p market,, due to come into operation p in 2020,, are currentlyy under compilation, p , according to the Oman Power and Water Procurement Company (OPWP).  The landmark initiative will operate alongside the existing system of long‐term power supply agreements secured by the state‐run utility with various independent power projects (IPP) in operation around the Sultanate.  The spot market is expected to increase competition in Oman’s power generation market, and to make available additional capacity that might otherwise not be readily accessible through the existing (power purchase agreement) procurement channel.  Significant headway has already been made in preparing the groundwork for the introduction of an electricity spot market.  A detailed framework underpinning this initiative has been submitted to the Authority for Electricity Regulation (AER), the sector’s regulator, for regulatory approval.  IT systems for spot market operations are planned to be procured later this year, according to the utility. Operational trials are scheduled to commence in 2019 with full commercial activities planned the following year. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Beginning of Summer to impact volumes, MSCI FM and MSM30 Index revision activity may support… During the previous trading session, we saw mixed closing among the regional markets with underperformance seen in UAE (ADX) and Qatar mainly on the outflows related to MSCI changes. Oman saw foreign buying interest in stocks which are added to MSCI FM index which lead to the market gaining 0.4% for the day. For the month of May 2017, all the regional markets ended on a negative note on relatively low market participation. We anticipate the local and the GCC equities to open see mixed opening for the first trading day of the month and to see further activity related to MSCI rebalancing. The new MSCI Index revision would be effective from today. In Oman, we see activity in stocks like Bank Muscat, OTEL, Ooredoo, Bank Sohar, Bank Nizwa, HSBC Oman and Phoenix Power. The MSM , points. p Index mayy see short term rallyy with the next resistance seen around 5,450 GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE  News DEWA awards Dhs798 million power plant contract to Spanish firm (Source: Gulf Business)  Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) has awarded a contract worth Dhs798m for the third phase of its K‐Station at the Jebel Ali power station to Spanish company Duro Felguera. The global tender received “several competitive bids”, DEWA said in a statement.  The project includes the supply, installation, testing and launch of two F‐type gas turbines from Siemens AG that will produce 590MW at 50 d degrees centigrade. d The h turbines b are planned l d to be b operationall by b the h second d quarter off 2019.  K‐Station is part of the Jebel Ali power and water desalination station, and uses natural gas turbines to generate power. Remotely operated, the station is fully‐automated and features control systems and operating technologies that minimise emissions.  The currentt generation Th ti capacity it off K‐Station K St ti is i 948MW. 948MW After Aft the th completion l ti off the th third thi d phase, h 590MW will ill be b added, dd d bringing b i i the th station’s t ti ’ total production capacity to 1,538MW.  On completion of this project in 2019, DEWA’s total installed capacity will be 11,990MW, including clean energy, it said. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC  News QP mulls raising capacity of LNG trains (Source: Trade Arabia)  Qatar Petroleum has signed an agreement with Chiyoda Corporation for conducting a detailed study to identify the modifications that are  required for debottlenecking the capacity of Qatar’s LNG trains, located in Ras Laffan Industrial City.  The move aims to process additional quantities of gas that will be produced from the planned new North Field gas project.   Qatar Petroleum had announced 3 its intention to develop a new gas project in the southern sector of the North Field with a capacity of about  2 billion cubic feet per day for export.  The study is expected to be completed before the end of this year, which will allow QP to kick off the FEED work early next year, if it  p p Q concludes that this option will achieve the optimum value for the State of Qatar.  Saudi Aramco signs deals to build Gulf's biggest shipyard (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Aramco plans to build the Gulf's largest shipyard through a joint venture with three companies that it announced, a $5.2 billion project  aimed at helping reduce the economy aimed at helping reduce the economy'ss reliance on oil. reliance on oil.  Aramco had signed a shareholder agreement with National Shipping Co of Saudi Arabia (Bahri), a state‐controlled firm which ships oil for  Aramco, London‐listed United Arab Emirates engineering firm Lamprell Plc, and South Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries Co.  q ( q ) py j p The 4.3 square kilometer (1.7 square mile) shipyard will be located at Ras Al Khair on Saudi Arabia's east coast. Major production is  expected to start in 2019 with the yard hitting full capacity by 2022.   It will be able to work on four offshore rigs and over 40 vessels a year including three very large crude carriers (VLCCs), Aramco said.  The government will cover about $3.5 billion of the total cost, with the remainder funded by the joint venture, said Lamprell, which will invest  up to $140 million and own 20 percent of the venture. Aramco will own 50.1%, investing as much as $351 million.  Bahri will invest up to $139 million for a 19.9 percent stake and Hyundai up to $70 million for 10 percent. The government's Saudi Industrial  Development Fund has agreed to provide a debt facility worth about $1 billion. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. GCC  News Moody's maintains negative outlook on Bahrain's banking system (Source: Gulf Base)  The negative outlook reflects the challenges posed by weakening economic growth, the sector's exposure to government debt and the authorities' lower capacity to support banks.   Moody's in a recent report conveyed that it expects Bahrain's growth to slow on the back of low oil prices, stagnant hydrocarbon output and  reduced government spending reduced government spending.   Economic growth is forecast to decline to around 2% in 2017‐18 from 3.1% in 2016. Growth in Bahrain's relatively diversified non‐oil  economy will also slow to 2.5% in 2017‐18, from a strong 3.7% in 2016.   g, , p p y % , pp y p j Overall lending, which was flat in 2016, is expected to expand by 3% in the next 12 to 18 months, supported by infrastructure projects.   The outlook for Bahrain's banking system over the next 12 to 18 months is negative, as it has been since 2015. The operating environment for  Bahraini banks will soften, driven by lower economic growth and increased sovereign debt issuance, as low oil prices sustain large fiscal  deficits, leading to an increase in banks' holdings of government bonds   The rating agency expects modest pressure on asset quality over the outlook period, with problem loans rising to around 7% of gross loans  from the already weak 6.3% at the end of 2016.  GBCM Morning Briefing 11
12. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 6/1/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 12