GCC Equity Market Monitor - 5 July

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g July 5, 2017 7/5/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% ‐15.0% ‐20.0% Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return QTD Return Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) UAE (ADX) Kuwait ‐ PI Kuwait  0.2% ‐2.6% ‐0.3% ‐0.5% 1.1% Kuwait  ‐ Wtd 0.5% ‐11.8% ‐0.4% ‐0.4% 1.2% ‐1.7% ‐1.7% ‐3.3% 0.7% 0.7% ‐3.4% ‐0.8% ‐0.8% 15.5% ‐1.8% ‐1.8% 4.6% ‐0.4% ‐0.4% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Qatar Bahrain ‐0.5% 0.1% ‐14.8% ‐1.5% ‐1.5% 7.9% 0.6% 0.6%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 1.683 million (c. US$ 4.4 million) Figures In RO OMANIS GCC Arabs OTHERS Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share BUY SELL NET Ooredoo Services 595,852 35.4% 1,262,302 1,262,302  1,026,723 1,026,723  235,578 235,578  Omantel Services 197 229 197,229 11 7% 11.7% 144,326  160,394  (16,068) Phoenix Power Utilities 138,077 8.2% 3,979  14,843  (10,864) Bank Sohar Banking 97,943 5.8% 272,106  480,752  (208,646) Raysut Cement Industry 76,510 4.5% MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Value Leaders Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 5,838,745  12.1 1.1 6.3% MSM 30 5,097.59 5,088.50 0.18% ‐0.40% ‐11.85% Financial 3,169,714  7.9 0.9 5.3% Financial 7,632.78 7,648.45 ‐0.20% ‐0.58% ‐0.51% Industrial 880,199  12.3 1.3 5.6% Industrial 7,082.09 7,110.96 ‐0.41% ‐0.50% ‐4.39% Services 2,439,482  58.1 1.6 7.5% Services 2,595.85 2,591.12 0.18% ‐0.17% ‐15.13% MSM Shariah 2,303,245  12.3 1.5 7.1% 760.23 760.31 ‐0.01% ‐0.22% ‐12.52% MSM Shariah 7/5/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   % Chg MENA  Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD %QTD %YTD   ‐0.5 0.3 1.4 ‐0.2 1.7 0.8 8.0 0.2 11.3 2.8 4.4 29.5 ‐1.4 ‐1.1 0.1 ‐0.5 13,334.8 ‐0.7 ‐0.5 2,173.8 0.1 0.3 6,107.2 0.5 1.4 25,152.1 ‐0.2 ‐0.2 553.8 0.7 1.7 101,207.8 0.7 0.8 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) 121.8 ‐1.6 ‐1.4 98.9 ‐1.4 ‐1.1 S&P GCC LMC S&P GCC (USD) S&P GCC (40 Index)‐ Price return S&P GCC (40 Index)‐ Total return MSCI GCC MSCI GCC MSCI Frontier  MSCI Frontier ex GCC MSCI Arabian Index 970.2 ‐0.3 0.2 0.2 ‐3.3 1,578.2 479 4 479.4 565.5 882.0 522.8 ‐0.3 ‐1.8 18 ‐0.2 ‐0.3 ‐1.7 0.2 ‐1.4 14 0.3 0.2 ‐1.3 0.2 ‐1.4 14 0.3 0.2 ‐1.3 0.4 06 0.6 13.3 17.1 0.7 Index  S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,429.0 21,479.3 6,110.1 63,231.6 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX , 7,357.2 5,174.9 12,437.1 Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia 20,040.3 25,478.9 31 264 3 31,264.3 3,190.3 2,388.0 1,017.6 Closing  % Chg %MTD %QTD Index %YTD  ‐0.1 0.1 0.1 9.6 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,875.6 ‐0.2 0.0 0.0 10.9 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,668.5 ‐0.5 0.3 0.3 13.4 MSCI EM Index 1,006.7 ‐0.7 ‐0.4 ‐0.4 16.8 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 588 8 588.8 00 0.0 00 0.0 00 0.0 68 6.8 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 297.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.6 ‐5.0 Commodity (Bloomberg)  83.1 0.0 0.6 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %YTD   0.2 0.6 ‐0.5 0.5 0.2 0.6 ‐0.5 0.5 8.5 8.7 13.5 5.0 ‐0.3 ‐0.4 ‐0.3 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.1 0.9 3.0 6.4 8.3 0.0 0.4 02 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.0 ‐1.1 11 1.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.2 1.7 0.0 ‐1.1 11 1.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.2 1.7 4.8 15.8 17 4 17.4 2.8 17.8 ‐11.7 %QTD %YTD %YTD  0.6 ‐0.6 0.2 ‐0.7 ‐0.8 ‐1.1 ‐0.7 ‐0.2 0.0 ‐0.2 ‐0.9 0.0 ‐1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 0.9 0.0 ‐5.9 8.0 3.9 3.3 4.7 6.9 5.6 2.2 ‐0.7 4.9 5.7 0.9 ‐0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 ‐1.6 ‐0.1 Global Currencies 1,918.9 Commodity  %QTD Asia Pacific Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD 0.2 0.6 ‐0.5 ‐0.1 %MTD Europe Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing   % Chg Americas  4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 96.197 1.136 1.294 113.170 1.292 8.522 0.965 6.796 7.807 64.739 0.762 13353.000 3.557 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.303 3.700 0.377 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6 ‐0.6 0.2 ‐0.7 ‐0.8 ‐1.1 ‐0.7 ‐0.2 0.0 ‐0.2 ‐0.9 0.0 ‐1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 0.9 0.0
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD  Index  Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  Benzene FOB Korea Spot 805.0 740.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 745.0 ‐2.0 0.0 ‐10.8 Benzene CFR India Spot 750.0 ‐2.0 0.0 ‐10.7 4.9 ‐9.3 NYMEX Crude 47.0 ‐0.2 2.0 2.0 ‐17.4 ICE Brent Crude 49.5 ‐0.1 1.6 1.6 ‐15.8 Crude Oil, Oman  48.3 ‐0.4 4.0 4.0 ‐10.9 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.0 1.2 ‐1.6 ‐1.6 ‐16.5 152.7 ‐0.5 0.9 0.9 ‐16.5 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,226.0 0.2 ‐1.3 ‐1.3 6.4 Silver Spot 16.2 0.5 ‐2.8 ‐2.8 1.6 Platinum Spot  911.3 ‐0.3 ‐1.7 ‐1.7 0.9 Palladium Spot  852.9 1.2 1.9 1.9 24.4 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 920 8 1,920.8 00 0.0 04 0.4 04 0.4 12 7 12.7 LME Copper‐Spot 5,867.3 ‐0.7 ‐1.0 ‐1.0 6.2 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,793.5 ‐0.3 1.5 1.5 9.2 LME Lead‐Spot 2,279.3 ‐1.6 0.3 0.3 14.0 LME Nickel‐Spot 9 141 0 9,141.0 ‐2.2 22 ‐2.2 22 ‐2.2 22 ‐8.3 83 Steel  US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  637.0 ‐0.2 ‐0.5 ‐0.5 5.3 Agriculture  C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  388 5 388.5 20 2.0 20 2.0 20 2.0 46 4.6 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  555.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 24.0 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  980.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 ‐0.9 ‐3 3 ‐3.3 ‐3 3 ‐3.3 ‐9 4 ‐9.4 Shipping  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  871 0 871.0 ‐1 2 ‐1.2 %MTD %QTD %YTD 0.0 0.0 ‐5.3 ‐10.8 Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Closing ‐1.2 ‐2.0 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  420.2 4.9 Naphtha C&F Japan  426.6 3.1 3.1 ‐14.1 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 416.5 ‐0.5 ‐0.5 ‐14.3 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  46.1 3.1 3.1 ‐14.1 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  1,045.0 ‐5.9 0.0 13.0 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 885.0 ‐9.7 0.0 ‐19.9 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 880.0 ‐9.7 0.0 ‐20.0 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot 820 0 820.0 ‐4.7 47 00 0.0 ‐5.2 52 5.2 Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 915.0 ‐4.2 0.0 2EH CFR South East Asia 935.0 ‐4.1 0.0 5.1 DOP CFR Far East Asia 945.0 ‐4.1 0.0 ‐4.1 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  8,890.0 ‐1.1 ‐1.1 ‐9.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 1,070.0 ‐1.8 0.0 ‐8.6 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,080.0 ‐2.7 0.0 ‐7.7 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,110.0 ‐1.8 0.0 ‐1.8 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  1,665.0 0.3 0.3 7.4 UREA Cornbelt 210.0 ‐6.7 0.0 ‐23.6 UREA Middle East 192.0 ‐8.6 0.0 ‐21.6 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 334 2 334.2 00 0.0 00 0.0 ‐3.2 32 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 7/5/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News CBO Issues Treasury Bills Tender Results (Source: ONA)  A tender of Government Treasury Bills, issue number 459 was held at the Central Bank of Oman (CBO) with total value of the allotted Treasury bills amounted to RO 60.77 million for a maturity period of 91 days, from 5th July until 4th October 2017.  Average accepted price reached 99.724 for every RO 100 while the minimum accepted price arrived at 99.715 per RO 100. The average discount rate and the average yield reached 1.10670% and 1.10977% respectively.  The interest rate on the Repo operations with CBO is 1.727% for the period from 4/7/2017 to 10/7/2017 while the discount rate on the Treasury Bills Discounting Facility with CBO is 2.477% for the same period. OCCI endorses more than RO 680m worth bills (Source: Oman Observer)  Oman Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OCCI) has approved bills worth more than RO 680 million in the first half of 2017, according to a statement from the OCCI.  A total of 21,575 bills came for approval in the first half out of which 16,211 were commercial bills while 16,118 were involving different transactions and were passed by the authorities.  5,866 bills were endorsed for domestic commodities which is considered to be a major support to the local production.11,352 bills involved production certificates for various local p produces while the number of international p products was 2,471 , in the last six months local p  352 applications for duplicate trade certificates and 698 requests for generalised system of preference through ‘Form A’ were handled by the OCCI.  pp for trade agencies g in the first six months while the bills for authorised agencies g were On the other hand, there were 1,123 applications 2,056 and foreign commodities bills amounted to 5,327. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Oman Banking Data ‐ April 2017 (Source: Oman Tribune, CBO)  The total outstanding credit extended by financial institutions in the Sultanate increased 6.1% YoY to RO 22.4 billion during the period ended April. While Credit grew by meager 1.3% Year to Date (YTD).  Credit to the private sector increased 7.7% to RO 20.3 billion during the period. Of the total credit to the private sector, personal loans accounted for 46.2% closely followed by the non non‐financial financial corporate sector at 45.6% and financial corporations at 5%.  Total deposits with financial corporations grew 7.8% at RO 21.6 billion as of April 2017. Deposit growth remain at 5.6% YTD. Private sector deposits of the banking system registered a growth of 6.4% to RO 13.8 billion.  per cent of the total p private sector deposit p base,, followed byy nonfinancial corporations p at 28.9 The households sector accounted for 48.9 p per cent, financial corporations at 19.3 per cent and the other sectors at 2.9 per cent.  The conventional banks in the Sultanate saw a 3% increase in credit disbursement during the period. Credit to the private sector increased by 5.3% to reach RO 17.8 billion.  Islamic banking entities provided financing to RO 2.7 billion as at the end of April 2017 compared to RO 1.9 billion a year ago. Total deposits held with Islamic banks and windows also registered a significant increase to RO 2.5 billion in April 2017 from RO 1.7 billion last year.  Aggregate deposits held with conventional banks increased by 4.4% to RO 19.1 billion in April 2017 from RO 18.3 billion a year ago. Government deposits with conventional banks went up by 11.1% to RO 5.2 billion.  The core capital and reserves of conventional banks as at the end of April 2017 stood at RO 4.1 billion.  Narrow money stock (M1) when measured on year‐on‐year basis, registered a drop of 3.3% to RO 5.2 billion. However, quasimoney witnessed growth of 5.3% during the period. Broad money supply M2 stood at RO 16.1 billion, a rise of 2.3% during the period. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source Bloomberg, Source: Bloomberg GBCM Research Market Outlook – Flattish trend to prevail, Focus to remain on political developments… During D i the th previous i t di session, trading i mostt off the th GCC equities iti ended d d on a negative ti note t with ith Saudi S di equities iti revealing li profit fit booking b ki trend post recent rally. While Kuwait and Oman saw buying interest to close in green for the day. After continued selling pressure, Oman saw buying support coming in few of the index heavyweights, to end higher by 0.2% and trade closer to 5,100 points, which would act as near term technical support. We expect the local and GCC equities to open on a flattish note for the day on to await for the political developments along with the upcoming Q2 earnings. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE  News Moody’s: United Arab Emirates–Aa2 Stable (Source: Gulf Base)  The credit strengths of the United Arab Emirates (UAE, Aa2 stable) include assumed unconditional support from the Abu Dhabi (Aa2 stable) government, with estimated assets under management at the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) exceeding total liabilities in the UAE's public sector.  Superior infrastructure f supporting diversification, d f very high h h per capita income and d hydrocarbon h d b reserves off more than h 70 years at the h current rate of production also support creditworthiness.  In addition, the UAE's domestic politics have a track record of stability and the country has strong international relations.  The UAE's Th UAE' main i credit dit challenge h ll relates l t to t weaker k economic i and d fiscal fi l metrics t i caused d by b the th oilil price i shock h k and d the th country's t ' fiscal fi l reliance li on hydrocarbons, 48 per cent of government revenue in 2016.  A lack of institutional transparency and the absence of public data on the composition of offshore assets and some of the emirates' public finances also constrain creditworthiness. Dubai plans to develop new $1.36 billion business district (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Holding has announced the launch of Emirates Towers Business Park, an integrated business district to be developed at a cost of Dh5 billion ($1.36 billion) on an area between Sheikh Zayed Road and Happiness Street; in close proximity to Dubai International Financial C t (DIFC), Centre (DIFC) the th leading l di financial fi i l hub h b for f the th Middle Middl East E t and d Africa Af i (MEA) and d South S th Asia A i region. i  An integrated district located in the heart of Dubai, Emirates Towers Business Park will boast a suite of office space, hospitality, commercial amenities and purpose‐built infrastructure to support the growth of businesses.  The development is the result of mutual collaboration between Dubai Holding and DIFC in response to the increasing demand from international corporations looking to set base in Dubai’s thriving business environment. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC  News Moody's changes Qatar's rating outlook to negative, affirms Aa3 rating (Source: CPI Financial)  The key driver for the outlook change to negative is the economic and financial risks arising from the ongoing dispute between Qatar and a group of countries, including its fellow Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) neighbours Bahrain (Ba2 negative), Saudi Arabia (A1 stable) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE, Aa2 stable).  In Moody Moody'ss view, view the likelihood of a prolonged period of uncertainty extending into 2018 has increased and a quick resolution of the dispute is unlikely over the next few months, which carries the risk that Qatar's sovereign credit fundamentals could be negatively affected.  The rating affirmation at Aa3 takes into account a number of credit strengths embedded in Qatar's credit profile and reflects Moody's view that the sizable net asset position of the Qatari government and exceptionally high levels of wealth will continue to provide significant pp to the sovereign g credit p profile for the time being. g support Investcorp makes first real estate acquisitions in Europe  Investcorp, a leading provider and manager of alternative investment products, Investcorp products has acquired two modern warehouse units in Doncaster, Doncaster one of the most important distribution locations in the UK.  Additionally, the company has also bought a light manufacturing facility on the Sutton Fields Estate, the largest industrial estate within Hull.  Investcorp said the acquisition of 504,000 504,000‐sq‐ft sq ft properties in the UK was the group group'ss first real estate investment in Europe. Both the properties have been let to two different tenants on long leases.  The assets were acquired for a total consideration of £35 million ($45.4 million) by investment firm in partnership with UK‐focused real estate investment group Brydell Partners.  The two acquisitions form the seed assets of Investcorp’s UK industrial and logistics programme, which will target income‐generating industrial assets across the UK. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 7/5/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11