GCC - Equity Market Monitor - 22 June

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA , Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage June 22, 2017 6/22/2017
2. GCC - Equity Market Monitor 20 .0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Daily Return Oman -1.4% Saudi 5.5% UAE (DFM) -1.0% UAE (ADX) 0.1% Kuwait - PI -0.3% Kuwait - Wtd -1.1% Qatar -1.8% Bahrain -0.4% YTD Return -11.4% 1.7% -3.2% -1.9% 17.7% 6.2% -15.9% 7.6% MTD Return -5.5% 6.7% 2.4% 0.7% -0.3% -0.2% -11.3% -0.5% QTD Return -7.7% 4.8% -1.8% 0.3% -3.8% -2.4% -15.5% -3.1% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2
3. MSM - Net Buy /(Sell) Position Top 5 - Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 5.530 million (c. US$ 14.4 million) Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Figures In RO Bank Muscat Banking 1,831,351 33.1% BUY SELL NET 3,415,934 3,388,647 27,287 Ooredoo Services 1,211,097 21.9% GCC 600,677 449,985 150,692 Oman Tel Services 569,867 10.3% Arabs 32,300 50,202 (17,903) Bank Sohar Banking 488,763 8.8% 1,481,276 1,641,352 (160,076) Oman Orix Leasing Leasing 217,798 3.9% OMANIS OTHERS MSM - Lead Indicators Value Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend Yield (%) Indices Monitor Current Closing Previous Closing Daily % MTD % Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 5,848,658 12.2 1.1 6.3% MSM 30 5,121.47 5,195.12 -1.42% -5.54% -11.43% Financial 3,169,434 8.0 0.9 5.3% Financial 7,716.03 7,832.39 -1.49% -4.29% 0.57% Industrial 883,284 12.6 1.3 5.6% Industrial 7,127.75 7,152.70 -0.35% -2.29% -3.77% Services 2,449,102 57.4 1.6 7.5% Services 2,598.78 2,625.77 -1.03% -6.23% -15.04% MSM Shariah 2,318,551 12.4 1.5 7.1% 764.31 770.12 -0.75% -3.64% -12.05% MSM Shariah 6/22/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA Markets Performance Index Global Markets Performance Closing % Chg MENA 13,376.4 -0.3 Egypt Jordan Tunis Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD 0.3 2,149.2 -0.1 -1.2 5,922.7 -0.2 3.9 24,433.1 -0.7 0.9 543.1 0.0 2.9 99,390.1 0.1 1.9 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 122.2 2.6 2.7 S&P GCC (USD) 99.0 2.4 2.2 966.0 -1.4 -3.5 S&P GCC (40 Index)- Price return S&P GCC (40 Index)- Total return 1,571.4 -1.4 -3.5 MSCI GCC 480.1 2.9 3.4 MSCI Frontier 559.9 -1.5 -0.3 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 867.7 -1.1 0.1 MSCI Arabian Index 523.0 2.7 3.1 %QTD %YTD 2.9 -4.5 6.8 2.3 0.8 11.7 8.4 -1.0 7.9 -0.1 2.4 27.2 1.5 0.4 -5.1 -4.2 1.7 4.2 5.4 1.7 0.4 -0.4 -3.7 0.0 0.7 12.1 15.2 0.7 Index Closing % Chg Americas S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,437.0 21,467.1 6,188.0 60,766.2 Index Closing Nikkei Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD 1,920.0 -0.1 0.4 3.6 9.6 MSCI World -Ex USA 1,871.2 -0.3 -0.3 4.3 10.7 MSCI Europe- USD 1,664.1 -0.1 -1.2 6.0 13.1 MSCI EM Index 1,006.5 -0.2 0.1 5.0 16.7 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO USD Vs Canadian Dollar USD Vs Japanese Yen USD Vs GBP USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar USD Vs Indian Rupee USD Vs Aus Dollar USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot USD Vs Omani Riyal USD Vs UAE Dirham USD Vs Saudi Riyal USD Vs Kuwait Dinar USD Vs Qatar Riyal USD Vs Bahrain Dinar Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices) US 10+ Yr TR 588.8 -0.2 1.4 4.8 6.8 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 297.1 0.1 1.3 5.1 1.2 -6.7 -9.0 Commodity (Bloomberg) Commodity 79.7 0.0 -3.8 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %YTD 1.0 2.2 -0.2 -3.1 3.1 3.9 4.7 -6.5 8.9 8.6 15.0 0.9 -0.6 0.2 1.6 2.0 3.3 4.1 4.6 8.9 11.6 2.6 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 -6.9 6.6 6.8 5.4 -2.6 9.1 -11.9 5.5 17.0 17.2 1.1 16.3 -14.9 Closing % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD %QTD %YTD -2.8 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.1 0.8 -0.4 0.6 -1.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 -1.4 -0.1 -4.6 6.2 0.9 5.2 2.7 4.1 4.8 1.7 -0.6 5.3 4.8 1.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 -1.4 -0.1 -0.7 -0.3 -0.8 -2.0 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD %QTD Europe 7,472.7 -0.7 5,293.7 -0.3 12,814.8 -0.6 Asia Pacific 20,163.6 -0.3 25,741.7 -0.4 31,219.2 -0.3 3,137.3 -0.1 2,355.9 -0.6 981.0 -1.7 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Global Benchmark Indices %MTD 4 97.503 1.117 1.332 111.130 1.267 8.747 0.972 6.832 7.800 64.485 0.756 13,318.000 3.532 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.304 3.691 0.377 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.6 -0.7 1.3 -0.3 -1.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 1.7 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.3 0.0
5. Commodities Performance Index Closing Petrochemical Performance % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD Index Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam Benzene FOB Korea Spot 810.0 755.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot Benzene CFR India Spot NYMEX Crude 42.5 -0.1 -12.5 -17.7 -25.3 ICE Brent Crude 44.8 -0.1 -11.8 -17.0 -23.9 Crude Oil, Oman 43.5 -2.8 -12.9 -16.2 -19.9 NYMEX Natural Gas 2.9 0.2 -5.6 -12.6 -19.2 140.8 -0.2 -11.8 -16.4 -23.9 Precious Metals Gold Spot 1,252.5 0.5 -1.3 0.2 8.7 Silver Spot 16.6 0.6 -4.1 -9.0 4.4 Platinum Spot 931.7 0.4 -1.9 -2.0 3.1 Palladium Spot 881.1 0.5 8.0 10.3 28.6 Base Metals LME Aluminium-Spot 1,857.8 -1.0 -3.5 -4.8 9.0 LME Copper-Spot 5,717.5 1.5 1.1 -1.7 3.5 LME Zinc-Spot 2,631.5 3.4 1.7 -4.3 2.9 LME Lead-Spot 2,163.5 2.8 3.1 -7.2 8.2 LME Nickel-Spot 8,952.5 2.1 0.3 -10.1 -10.2 Steel US - Hot Roll Coil Steel 589.0 0.0 2.4 -3.4 -3.1 Agriculture Corn - Active Contract 375.8 -0.3 -1.1 -0.9 1.2 Wheat - Active Contract 476.8 -0.6 7.4 5.1 6.5 CBOT - Soya bean 927.8 0.0 1.0 -2.8 -6.2 Shipping Baltic Dry Index 844.0 -0.4 %QTD %YTD -0.6 0.0 -1.2 -6.2 -4.7 -9.0 760.0 0.0 -6.2 -9.0 765.0 0.0 -6.1 -8.9 -9.1 -14.0 -14.7 %MTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT) Energy NYMEX Gasoline Closing -3.9 -34.9 -12.2 Condensates (in USD/ MT) European Naptha 395.2 Naphtha C&F Japan 403.0 -7.7 -14.1 -18.8 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 382.8 -10.7 -18.3 -21.3 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot 43.6 -7.8 -14.1 -18.8 Olefins (in USD/ MT) Ethylene Spot 1,055.0 -5.0 -11.3 14.1 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 900.0 -8.2 -17.8 -18.6 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 895.0 -8.2 -17.9 -18.6 Propylene FOB Korea Spot 820.0 -4.7 -1.8 -5.2 5.8 Intermediate (in USD/ MT) 2EH CFR Far East Asia 920.0 -3.7 -10.7 2EH CFR South East Asia 940.0 -3.6 -10.5 5.6 DOP CFR Far East Asia 940.0 -4.6 -2.6 -4.6 Polymers (in USD/ MT) LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT) Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 8,765.0 1,080.0 -4.1 -0.9 -4.2 -5.3 -10.2 -7.7 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,100.0 -0.9 -5.2 -6.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,120.0 -0.9 -4.3 -0.9 Urea (in USD/ MT) Urea Price (RMB/ MT) 1,660.0 2.5 0.0 7.1 UREA Cornbelt 220.0 -2.2 -12.0 -20.0 UREA Middle East 206.0 -1.9 -2.8 -15.9 US Urea Avg. Retail Price 335.3 -4.3 -9.5 -2.9 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 6/22/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Royal decrees on Infrastructure projects promulgated (Source: Oman Tribune)  Royal Decree No. 24/2017 declares the project to implement the Fourth Batch of the Haima-Thumrait railway as a public utility project.  Article (1) declares the project to implement the Fourth phase (first package) of the Haima-Thumrait railway, which connects the Wilayat of Haima in the Governorate of Al Wusta and the Wilayat of Thumrait in the Governorate of Dhofar, as specified in the memo and diagram attached to this decree, as a public utility project.  Article (2) stipulates that the departments concerned may expropriate, through direct implementation, the properties and lands necessary for the aforementioned project, along with all the installations therein, in accordance with provisions of the Public Utility Expropriation Law promulgated by Royal Decree No. 64/78.  Article (3) says that this decree shall be published in the Official Gazette and enforced on its date of issue.  Royal Decree No. 25/2017 declares the project to upgrade the efficiency of the Al Rusayl-Nizwa road from Al Sahwa Tower’s roundabout to the Bidbid-Sur junction as a public utility project.  Article (1) declares the project to upgrade the efficiency of the Al Rusayl-Nizwa road from Al Sahwa Tower’s roundabout to the Bidbid-Sur junction, as specified in the memo and diagram attached to this decree, as a public utility project.  Article (2) stipulates that the departments concerned may expropriate, through direct implementation, the properties and lands necessary for the aforementioned project, along with all the installations therein, in accordance with provisions of the Public Utility Expropriation Law promulgated by Royal Decree No. 64/78.  Article (3) says that this decree shall be published in the Official Gazette and enforced on its date of issue. United Finance rejects alizz Islamic proposal (Source: Oman Tribune)  Leasing firm United Finance has declined alizz Islamic Bank’s merger proposal submitted early this month.  In a filing on the Muscat Securities Market on Wednesday, the company said its board met on June 20 to discuss the letter and “decided to decline the proposed offer and insist on receiving an offer for full cash acquisition”.  This is the second time in two years that there has been offers and finally getting declined by United Finance GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Muscat Gases seeks investor approval for 70 % stake sale (Source: Oman Tribune)  Muscat Gases is to hold an extraordinary general meeting on July 6 for shareholders to approve establishment of a limited liability company under the name of United Industrial Gases Company and authorise the board of directors to complete procedures for this.  It will also seek approval for the transfer of its industrial gases business to the new firm in line with the terms and conditions in the information memorandum.  The meeting will also take up the sale of 70 per cent of the issued share capital of the new company to Air Products Leasing BV.  Earlier, Muscat Gases has signed a conditional agreement with Air Products Leasing, a wholly-owned subsidiary of US-based Air Products and Chemicals.  Muscat Gases had in June 2016 announced its intention of selling a stake in one its line of businesses. A’Namaa Poultry, Meethaq sign RO 50m project finance deal (Source: Oman Observer)  A’Namaa Poultry Co SAOC and Meethaq, the pioneer of Islamic banking in Oman from Bank Muscat, signed agreements to successfully conclude long-term financing facilities of RO 50 Million to finance the biggest “Poultry Project” of the Sultanate with a poultry meat producing capacity of 60,000 MT p/a, near Ibri, in Al Sawmahan Water catchment area.  The Project will comprise of 240 poultry houses in addition to a Hatchery, Feed mill, Processing plant, Water treatment plant, other utilities and administration block. 13 new hotels launch operations during first five months of 2017 (Source: Oman Observer)  As many as 13 new hotel facilities commenced operations in the Sultanate during the first five months of this year — part of a portfolio of 81 properties set for launch over the 2017-2018 timeframe, according to the Ministry of Tourism.  According to the Director General of Investors Services & Quality Control room capacity as end-December 2016 climbed to 18,825 rooms distributed across hotels, resorts, hotel apartments, tourist camps, rest houses, guest houses, heritage hotels and green hotels across the Sultanate. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. Oman News Omran , Damac ink $1b pact for redevelopment of PSQ (Source: Oman Tribune)  Oman Tourism Development Company (Omran) has partnered with Damac International for the redevelopment of Port Sultan Qaboos into a world-class, waterfront mix use destination.  ‘Mina Sultan Qaboos Waterfront’ is being redeveloped into a $1 billion integrated tourist port and lifestyle destination that includes hotels, residences, as well as a dining, retail, leisure and community facilities that is set to make it amongst the top waterfront destinations in the region.  The redevelopment of the port by Omran will build renewed interest and focus to the area, while creating a strong investment proposition for the tourism, real estate and leisure industries.  Futaisi said: “The transformation of Mina Sultan Qaboos into a thriving economic and tourist hub stems from His Majesty the Sultan’s vision to move the port’s commercial activity to Port Sohar, paving the way for the redevelopment of the port into an integrated tourist hub.” Oman Market Regulator Expects 6 Insurance Cos to IPO This year (Source: Bloomberg)  Cos expected to list as 3-year grace period stipulated by 2014 royal decree ends, CEO Abdullah Al Salmi says in emailed statement.  CMA approved listing of Al Ahlia Insurance, Vision Insurance. Each company’s listing will be of 25m shares  Vision IPO at 0.162 riyal/shr; subscription from July 9 to August 7  Al Ahlia IPO at 0.300 riyal/shr; subscription from July 4 to August 2 GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. MSM - Market Watch Source : Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Last trading day of Q2 2017, to witness range bound activity… Except Saudi rest of the regional indices closed on a negative note owing to considerable decline in the oil prices. While Saudi market surged by 5.5% on account of Saudi appointment of new crown prince and MSCI news. MSM Index during the previous trading session closed down by declining 1.4% at 5,121 points. We anticipate the market to open flat for the last trading day of Q2 2017 and may witness range bound activity amid traders position closing for the month and also quarter. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. UAE News First Abu Dhabi Bank 's Wealth Sentiment Index up 1.56 per cent in June 2017 (Source: Markets Today)  First Abu Dhabi Bank, FAB, the UAE’s largest bank and one of the world’s largest financial institutions, has announced the latest score of its Wealth Sentiment Index, WSI, which has increased from 1038.28 in May to 1054.52 in June 2017.  The Wealth Sentiment Index increased by 1.56 per cent this month, due to the outlook of the WSI Council and a drop in inflation. An increased inflow of tourists to the UAE, particularly from China, is another key factor, whilst a fall in oil prices and the Purchasing Manager’s Index has had a negative impact. Nevertheless, business optimism remains high and companies are positive about the UAE economy. Central Bank's foreign currency assets up to AED322.4 billion in May (Source: Markets Today)  The UAE Central Bank's foreign currency assets increased 1.5 percent to AED322.4 billion during the month of May from AED317.44 billion in April, according to statistics released by the bank.  The surge is attributable to the rise in UAE banking balances and deposits overseas from AED147.85 billion in December to AED215.66 billion by the end of May.  In the meantime, foreign securities held at the bank until their maturity date during the same period continued to depreciate from AED149.34 billion to AED101.46, with other foreign assets following suit from AED13.72 billion to AED5.29 billion by the end of May.  The bank's total assets in May amounted to AED382.1 from AED364.45 in December 2016.  As per the CB statistics, deposits increased to AED95.1 billion during the month of May, while investment portfolios held until their maturity date fell to AED150.62 billion, loans and debts down to AED3.2 billion and other assets to AED2.61 billion. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. GCC News Riyad Bank plans dividend for H1 2017  (Source: Argaam) Riyad Bank’s board of directors recommended a 3.5% cash dividend (SAR 0.35 per share) to be issued for the first half of 2017, amounting to a total of SAR 1.05 billion. Gulf Union, Al Ahlia ink non-binding deal for potential merger (Source: Argaam)  Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance Co. and Al Ahlia for Cooperative Insurance signed a non-binding agreement to start due diligence for a potential merger, both companies said in separate statements.  The two insurers agreed that the merger will be closed via a share swap deal, under which Al Ahlia will turn into a subsidiary of Gulf Union. Gulf Union will issue 0.5625 new shares for every issued share in Al Ahlia.  When the merger is completed, Gulf Union will issue 9 million new shares to Al Ahlia shareholders in exchange for all issued shares in that company. Accordingly, total issued shares of the merged entity will stand at 24 million, with SAR 240 million in capital.  The two companies added that in case an agreement is reached on the planned merger, Gulf Union will submit a bid for Al Ahlia shareholders. The due diligence process is expected to be finalized in H1-2018.  Meanwhile, both companies will continue their operations and trading on the Saudi bourse normally until the merger is completed. GBCM Morning Briefing 11
12. | Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage - Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 6/22/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 12