Kuwait Financial Centre Markaz Weekly Wrap - 22 Oct

Transcription

1. Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” Weekly Wrap 22 Oct 2017 Equity Watch Indicators MENA Markets Saudi (TASI) Turkey ISE National 100 Abu Dhabi (ADI) Kuwait SE WT.INDEX Qatar(QE Index) Dubai (DFMGI) Morocco (CAI) Egypt (Hermes) Jordan (Amman) Bahrain (BAX) Oman(Muscat SM) Lebanon (BSE) Emerging Markets MSCI EM Index MSCI FM Index Shanghai A Share Index SENSEX Index (India) S&P GCC Composite Developed Markets MSCI WORLD Index US (S&P 500) UK (FTSE) Japan (Nikkei 225) Germany (DAX) * M. Cap (USD Bn) Last Close WTD % MTD % YTD % 443 186 134 100 95 86 66 41 22 20 14 8 7,011 108,489 4,505 432 8,172 3,673 12,307 1,307 3,960 1,279 5,067 1,155 0.34 2.13 -0.45 -0.01 -2.04 0.34 -1.43 0.10 -0.55 0.33 -1.20 0.06 -3.07 7.18 2.23 -0.32 -2.96 3.12 0.39 3.49 -1.39 -0.38 -1.40 0.90 -2.8 38.8 -0.9 13.5 -21.7 4.0 5.7 20.1 -2.7 4.8 -12.4 -4.7 4 9 6 -0 0 12 30 73 -4 0 7 4 15 10 11 16 12 10 20 12 14 9 11 6 4.4 3.0 5.4 4.3 5.0 4.7 3.4 2.6 4.7 5.2 6.0 7.6 5,013 119 4,997 879 894 1,120 1,079 3,539 32,390 98 -0.55 -0.81 -0.35 -0.13 0.06 3.81 1.64 1.03 3.95 -1.60 29.9 21.1 8.9 21.6 -1.3 9 2 -12 2 4 15 15 16 24 15 2.3 3.2 1.8 1.2 3.4 2,036 0.37 2,575 0.86 7,523 -0.16 21,449 2.36 12,990 0.06 2.39 2.72 2.87 5.83 2.63 16.2 15.0 5.3 12.2 13.1 5 10 14 0 7 22 23 22 18 14 2.4 2.3 3.9 1.6 2.6 37,588 23,200 2,749 3,445 1,431 2016 P/E Div. % TTM Yield Yield Curve Watch LIBOR (In %) KIBOR Yield Curve (%) Interest Rate Watch - P/E & Div. Yield for GCC as per Zawya Deposit rate Fixed Income Watch (*Bond & Sukuk Index) Government Bonds YTM % 2016-End, % YTD Chng, % Spread (bps) Duration (yrs) US Tres. 10yr 2.381 2.431 -0.050 8.82 Germany 10yr 0.451 0.208 0.243 -193.0 9.58 U.K Japan 10yr 10yr 1.329 0.070 1.250 0.041 0.079 0.029 -105.2 -231.1 8.47 9.86 India 10yr 6.763 6.610 0.153 438.2 6.98 China 10yr 3.719 3.005 0.714 133.8 8.26 Close WTD % MTD % YTD % 1,280.33 -1.85 -0.03 11.2 17.00 -2.05 1.52 6.7 57.75 1.01 -0.26 1.6 427.78 -0.58 -1.85 1.3 S&P GCC MENA* 3.24 3.38 -0.140 85.9 n/a 9.97 1.18 113.50 0.30 0.36 3.75 0.33 -1.46 -0.23 0.11 1.01 -0.34 -0.61 -0.17 -0.51 2016 Price Close 1,151.46 15.934 56.82 422.27 2016% 9 16 52 13 14.04 1.0513 116.87 0.30538 0.321 -23 -3 -3 1 -3 -29.0 -10.8 3.0 1.0 -9.9 Blue Chip Watch M. % Cap W Companies Last (USD T Bn) D Saudi Arabia (SAR) SABIC 79 98.4 0.4 STC 37 68.6 -0.9 AL-RAJHI BANK 28 64.7 2.7 SEC 27 24.0 4.7 NCB 26 48.9 1.1 United Arab Emirates (AED) ETISALAT 42 17.8 -1.1 FIRST AD BK 31 10.5 -0.5 DP WORLD 18 22.3 0.2 EMAAR PROP 17 8.8 0.6 EMIRATES NBD 12 8.2 -0.6 Kuwait (KWD) NBK 15 0.78 -0.3 KFH 12 0.60 0.7 ZAIN 7 0.51 -1.0 P WARE H_AGLTY 4 0.85 2.8 BOUBYAN 3 0.46 2.9 Qatar (QAR) QNB 31 123.3 1.2 INDUSTRIE QAT 16 94.0 -4.0 OOREDOO 8 85.9 0.8 MASARAF AL RAY 7 35.7 -1.5 EZDAN HOLIDING 7 9.1 -2.8 % M T D -4.5 -3.1 -2.1 0.1 -4.9 % P PAT (Mn) Y 2016 / Div % Gr T % E yield H12017 YoY D (ttm) 7.5 19 -5.4 6 2.7 21 7.0 42 14.7 -16 16 15 12 11 10 6.9 6.7 2.4 4.3 2.7 8,940 4,904 4,403 7,167 5,120 14 7 8 396 1 2.9 -5.3 17 2.5 4.6 26 -0.9 27.1 -14 3.1 22.7 25 -2.1 -3.4 15 18 13 18 11 7 4.5 4.3 1.7 1.7 4.9 4,061 3,705 2,837 3,894 -6 40 15 5 2.5 0.2 -0.8 -3.8 5.5 26.0 -13 22.6 10 23.9 17 51.3 29 23.3 -6 15 18 13 18 25 3.7 2.6 6.9 1.6 1.2 165 82 82 31 22 9 15 0 12 16 1.1 2.5 3.7 -3.9 -13.0 -16.7 12 -20.0 6 -19 36 -1 0 -31 -5 9 22 4.1 5.6 5.5 6,654 1,610 1,097 1,020 1,155 7 -40 -25 -3 25 2.6 4.3 4.1 5.6 5.5 3M Int rates % US 3M Rate % Kuwait 1.33 Saudi 1.50 UAE 1.10 Qatar 1.33 Oman 0.19 Bahrain 2.00 Euro -0.44 UK 0.38 Switzerland -0.90 Japan -0.32 Last FOMC Meeting Date: Sep 19/20 Commodity/Currency/Volatility Watch Precious Metals Gold $/oz Silver $/oz IPE Brent $/bbl CRB Commodity Index Volatility & Currency CBOE VIX index USD (1 EUR =) Yen (1 USD =) KWD (1 USD =) KWD (1 EUR =) US Treasuries (In %) Diff FY16 Diff 1.33 0.00 -0.14 1.33 0.17 0.65 1.33 -0.23 -0.45 1.33 0.00 0.75 1.33 -1.14 -0.74 1.33 0.67 0.80 1.33 -1.77 -1.41 1.33 -0.95 -0.65 1.33 -2.23 -1.90 1.33 -1.65 -1.20 Next FOMC Mt Date: Oct 31/Nov 01 5 year CDS (USD) Watch (bps) Country Current 2016 Saudi Arabia Abu-Dhabi Dubai Qatar Oman Bahrain 84.29 61.08 132.13 101.99 200.00 237.60 113.67 67.98 159.77 88.2 263.5 302.72 52-week High Low 148.73 84.23 76.81 38.72 167.35 103.91 124.66 56.64 276.00 178.00 379.22 209.09 Corporate Earnings Watch Company Name SADAFCO GWCS QIBK RIBL Earnings Type 9M 9M 9M 9M Country KSA Qatar Qatar KSA Currency SAR(Mn) QAR(Mn) QAR(Bn) SAR(Mn) LFY 152 157.3 1.77 2.97 PFY 162.4 150.1 1.61 3.05 % Chg -6.4 4.8 10.3 -2.5 News & Views  Oman’s economy has achieved a robust 12.3 per cent growth rate to USD 33.8 billion for the first half of 2017, mainly driven by a marked growth in crude oil prices in the international market and prudent fiscal policies of the government. 15  5 -5.9 0.3total -6.1non-oil 17 exports 17 4.5 Qatar’s for the first nine months of 2017 stood at USD 1.7 1.1 Non-oil 22.2 -14 18 for1.4 3.51bn. exports September 2017 fell by 12.6% to USD 0.41bn 1.5 1.8 8.2 2 11 from USD 0.47bn recorded in August this year. 9 1.9 1.9 7.1 26 11 4.2  15 Non-oil growth in the UAE is estimated to remain resilient in 2017 while Opec-mandated oil production cuts limit oil growth, said the World Bank. The non-oil sector is estimated to grow by 3.3 per cent in 2017, reflecting higher public investment and a pickup in global trade.  Total new debt issuance in GCC amounted to USD 24bn compared to USD 21bn in Q2 17. Private sector activity continued to weaken in third quarter, with the share of sovereign issuances up to 94 percent. Total outstanding debt was up a healthy USD 20bn, to rest at USD 415bn. Note: 1 Weekend Details – Turkey, Morocco & Lebanon – Saturday & Sunday; MENA, Ex-Turkey, Morocco & Lebanon – Friday & Saturday; US, European & Emerging Markets – Saturday & Sunday. Markaz Research can now be accessed on Bloomberg. Type “MRKZ” <Go>. This report has been prepared and issued by Kuwait Financial Centre K.P.S.C (Markaz), which is regulated by the Capital Markets Authority and the Central Bank of Kuwait. The report is owned by Markaz and is privileged and proprietary and is subject to copyrights. Sale of any copies of this report is strictly prohibited. This report cannot be quoted without the prior written consent of Markaz. Any user after obtaining Markaz permission to use this report must clearly mention the source as “Markaz “. This Report is intended to be circulated for general information only and should not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but in no way are warranted by us as to its accuracy or completeness. Markaz has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report. For further information, please contact ‘Markaz’ at P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095, Kuwait. Tel: 00965 1804800 Fax: 00965 22450647. Email: research@markaz.com 7.2