GCC - Equity Market Monitor - 19 June

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA , Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage June 19, 2017 6/19/2017
2. GCC - Equity Market Monitor 25 .0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Daily Return Oman 0.0% Saudi 0.9% UAE (DFM) -0.4% UAE (ADX) 0.0% Kuwait - PI 0.6% Kuwait - Wtd 1.5% Qatar -0.8% Bahrain -0.3% YTD Return -9.2% -4.6% -2.5% -1.0% 19.2% 6.7% -12.0% 8.4% MTD Return -3.2% 0.1% 3.1% 1.7% 1.0% 0.3% -7.2% 0.3% QTD Return -5.4% -1.7% -1.0% 1.3% -2.5% -1.8% -11.6% -2.4% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2
3. MSM - Net Buy /(Sell) Position Top 5 - Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 2.257 million (c. US$ 5.869 million) Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Figures In RO Bank Muscat Banking 812,094 36.0% Oman Hotels & Tour Services 390,643 17.3% BUY SELL NET 1,481,413 1,535,855 (54,442) 681,771 610,576 71,195 Al Madina Investment Brok/Inv 215,694 9.6% Arabs 4,660 2,320 2,340 Anwar Holding Inv Hldg 131,323 5.8% OTHERS 89,524 108,617 (19,093) Anwar Ceramic Tiles Industry 111,950 5.0% OMANIS GCC MSM - Lead Indicators Value Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend Yield (%) Indices Monitor Current Closing Previous Closing Daily % MTD % Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,028,162 12.6 1.1 6.1% MSM 30 5,249.24 5,248.41 0.02% -3.19% -9.23% Financial 3,272,094 8.2 0.9 5.1% Financial 7,890.74 7,883.54 0.09% -2.12% 2.85% Industrial 882,635 12.6 1.3 5.6% Industrial 7,130.58 7,121.78 0.12% -2.25% -3.74% Services 2,528,016 59.3 1.6 7.3% Services 2,662.88 2,658.97 0.15% -3.92% -12.94% MSM Shariah 2,367,433 12.6 1.5 6.9% 774.59 773.60 0.13% -2.34% -10.87% MSM Shariah 6/19/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA Markets Performance Index Global Markets Performance Closing % Chg MENA 13,496.5 0.1 Egypt Jordan Tunis Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD 1.2 2,154.2 -0.1 -1.0 5,889.8 -0.2 3.4 24,433.1 -0.7 0.9 538.2 0.7 1.9 98,192.6 -0.6 0.7 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 118.6 0.7 -0.3 S&P GCC (USD) 96.4 0.5 -0.5 1,598.1 -0.1 -1.9 S&P GCC (40 Index)- Price return S&P GCC (40 Index)- Total return 464.3 0.8 0.0 MSCI GCC 562.7 0.3 0.2 MSCI Frontier 874.5 0.5 0.9 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 507.1 0.7 0.0 MSCI Arabian Index 118.6 0.7 -0.3 %QTD %YTD 3.9 -4.3 6.3 2.3 -0.1 10.4 9.3 -0.7 7.3 -0.1 1.5 25.7 -1.5 -2.2 -2.6 -1.6 4.8 6.2 -1.4 -1.5 -2.5 -3.0 1.7 -2.6 12.7 16.1 -2.3 -2.5 Index Closing % Chg Americas S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,433.2 21,384.3 6,151.8 61,626.4 Index Closing Nikkei Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD 1,923.2 0.4 0.6 3.8 9.8 MSCI World -Ex USA 1,881.6 0.8 0.2 4.9 11.3 MSCI Europe- USD 1,673.4 1.1 -0.7 6.6 13.8 MSCI EM Index 1,003.1 -0.1 -0.2 4.7 16.3 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO USD Vs Canadian Dollar USD Vs Japanese Yen USD Vs GBP USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar USD Vs Indian Rupee USD Vs Aus Dollar USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot USD Vs Omani Riyal USD Vs UAE Dirham USD Vs Saudi Riyal USD Vs Kuwait Dinar USD Vs Qatar Riyal USD Vs Bahrain Dinar Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices) US 10+ Yr TR 589.7 0.2 1.6 5.0 7.0 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 232.9 0.3 1.0 2.2 0.7 -5.0 -7.3 Commodity (Bloomberg) Commodity 81.1 -0.2 -2.1 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %YTD 0.9 1.8 -0.8 -1.7 3.0 3.5 4.1 -5.2 8.7 8.2 14.3 2.3 -0.8 -0.4 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.5 8.2 11.1 1.5 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.6 -5.6 5.5 6.3 4.8 -3.1 9.3 -10.7 4.3 16.5 16.6 0.6 16.5 -13.7 Closing % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD %QTD %YTD -3.2 5.1 0.7 0.4 1.8 3.1 2.9 1.1 -0.4 0.8 -0.1 0.3 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 -0.8 -0.1 -4.9 6.4 1.7 5.4 3.5 4.6 4.6 2.0 -0.5 5.5 5.7 1.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD %QTD Europe 7,463.5 0.6 5,263.3 0.9 12,752.7 0.5 Asia Pacific 19,943.3 0.6 25,626.5 0.2 31,056.4 -0.1 3,123.2 -0.3 2,361.8 0.0 994.4 0.2 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Global Benchmark Indices %MTD 4 97.179 1.120 1.322 110.960 1.277 8.703 0.974 6.812 7.798 64.355 0.762 13,280.000 3.499 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.304 3.673 0.377 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.4 2.1 -0.2 -0.9 -0.2 -0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.2 2.6 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 0.0
5. Commodities Performance Index Closing Petrochemical Performance % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD Index Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam Benzene FOB Korea Spot 785.0 745.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot Benzene CFR India Spot NYMEX Crude 44.6 -0.4 -7.8 -13.3 -21.5 ICE Brent Crude 47.2 -0.4 -7.0 -12.6 -19.8 Crude Oil, Oman 46.0 0.8 -7.9 -11.3 -15.2 NYMEX Natural Gas 3.0 -2.7 -3.8 -10.9 -17.6 145.7 0.1 -8.8 -13.6 -21.2 Precious Metals Gold Spot 1,253.0 -0.1 -1.3 0.3 8.7 Silver Spot 16.7 -0.1 -3.8 -8.7 4.7 Platinum Spot 929.3 -0.1 -2.2 -2.2 2.9 Palladium Spot 864.4 -0.1 5.9 8.3 26.1 Base Metals LME Aluminium-Spot 1,856.0 -0.3 -3.6 -4.9 8.9 LME Copper-Spot 5,639.0 0.0 -0.3 -3.0 2.1 LME Zinc-Spot 2,512.3 0.9 -2.9 -8.7 -1.8 LME Lead-Spot 2,091.0 0.9 -0.4 -10.3 4.6 LME Nickel-Spot 8,882.8 1.1 -0.4 -10.8 -10.9 Steel US - Hot Roll Coil Steel 589.0 0.0 2.4 -3.4 -3.1 Agriculture Corn - Active Contract 387.5 -1.1 2.0 2.2 4.4 Wheat - Active Contract 479.3 -0.5 8.0 5.7 7.0 CBOT - Soya bean 957.8 0.8 4.3 0.4 -3.2 Shipping Baltic Dry Index 851.0 -0.5 %QTD %YTD -3.7 -1.3 -4.3 -7.5 -7.7 -10.2 750.0 -1.3 -7.4 -10.2 755.0 -1.3 -7.4 -10.1 %MTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT) Energy NYMEX Gasoline Closing -3.1 -34.4 -11.4 Condensates (in USD/ MT) European Naptha 400.9 -7.7 -12.7 -13.4 Naphtha C&F Japan 411.3 -5.8 -12.3 -17.2 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 395.2 -7.8 -15.7 -18.7 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot 44.5 -5.9 -12.4 -17.1 Olefins (in USD/ MT) Ethylene Spot 1,125.0 1.4 -5.5 21.6 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 885.0 -9.7 -19.2 -19.9 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 880.0 -9.7 -19.3 -20.0 Propylene FOB Korea Spot 805.0 -6.4 -3.6 -6.9 8.6 Intermediate (in USD/ MT) 2EH CFR Far East Asia 945.0 -1.1 -8.3 2EH CFR South East Asia 965.0 -1.0 -8.1 8.4 DOP CFR Far East Asia 950.0 -3.6 -1.6 -3.6 -1.9 -0.5 -2.0 -4.8 -8.1 -7.3 Polymers (in USD/ MT) LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT) Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 8,970.0 1,085.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,110.0 0.0 -4.3 -5.1 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,120.0 -0.9 -4.3 -0.9 Urea (in USD/ MT) Urea Price (RMB/ MT) 1,645.0 1.5 -0.9 6.1 UREA Cornbelt 220.0 -2.2 -12.0 -20.0 UREA Middle East 206.0 -1.9 -2.8 -15.9 US Urea Avg. Retail Price 337.8 -3.6 -8.8 -2.2 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 6/19/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Real estate contracts value hits RO 252m in May (Source: Oman Observer)  Transactions involved sale, grant, inheritance, exchange, mortgage redemption and division transactions –  Dr Ali bin Azzan al Hashami, Deputy Secretary of the Real Estate Registry at the Ministry of Housing, said that the value of traded contracts during May 2017 stood at RO 252 million while the collected fees amounted to RO 7.831 million.  He added that the real estate activity involved 33,279 transactions that included sale, grant, inheritance, exchange, mortgage and mortgage redemption, usufruct and division transactions.  He further said that the total value of mortgage contracts stood at RO 133,161,000 through concluding 1,933 contracts at the level of governorates in the Sultanate.  He pointed out that the fees collected from mortgage contracts hit more than RO 638,000 while the highest percentage of mortgage contracts registered in the Governorate of Muscat with 591 compared to the other governorates in the Sultanate.  The Deputy Secretary of the Real Estate Registry at the Ministry of Housing added that the total value of exchange contracts hit more than RO 1 million while the fees collected from such contract transactions stood at above RO 22,000 through 75 relevant contracts. MOCI issues order on import of steel (Source: Oman Observer)  The Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MOCI) has issued an order that effective from July 2,2017, traders and importers will be able to import steel only after obtaining an import permit.  While making it mandatory, a directive from the ministry said, “all importers and traders should obtain licence for dealing in the sale of steel in construction sector”.  Although much details are not given, the directive said that the move is aimed at confirming that the construction sector is adhering to building standards and specifications.  Reacting to the decision, a quality assurance engineer with a leading steel mill said that the decision will help prevent imports of cheap steel and its unfair competition in the market. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Meethaq of Bank Muscat Signs Financing Agreement with SAFE Alloys LLC (Source: ONA)  Meethaq Islamic Bank at Bank Muscat, signed a financial agreement with SAFE Alloys LLC, a Sohar Free Zone Company, which intends to set up a Low Carbon Ferro Chrome production plant at the Sohar Free Zone.  The agreement comes within the strategy of Meethaq Islamic Bank to provide banking and financial services complying with Islamic Sharia principles to individuals and institutions in various fields and sectors.  The investment cost of the project is approximately USD 14 million and it will be set up on 56 thousand square meters. This plant will be the first of its kind in the Middle East and will create around 100 employment opportunities in its first phase.  The second phase, which is expected to begin during the next five years, will witness an investment of around 18 Million USD and provide 150 jobs bringing the total of employment opportunities to 250 jobs.  The project has the capacity to produce 16,500 tonnes of Low Carbon Ferro Chrome per annum and will be exported to Europe, the United States, Korea, Japan and India. Low Carbon Ferro Chrome is produced from Chrome Ore and Lime and Silicon Metal and is used in many Stainless steel industries and special steels, Aerospace, Oil and Gas and Automotive industries.  Demand for Low Carbon Ferro Chrome is growing due to the global demand in Stainless steel, Aerospace and Automotive industries reaching 1 Million tonnes per annum. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM - Market Watch Source : Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Stock specific activity to prevail… During the previous trading day, except Qatar, Bahrain and DFM rest of the GCC markets closed on a positive territory. MSM ended the day flat amid dull market participation. We anticipate the local and the regional markets to trade within a narrow range coupled with low market participation ahead of holiday season. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE News Drake & Scull shifts focus to UAE for turnaround (Source: Arabian Business)  Drake & Scull International (DSI) will focus on bidding for more projects in the UAE, particularly schemes with high profit margin, according to chief executive officer Wael Allan.  The company, which is owed $2.18 billion [AED8bn] as of March 2017, is currently bidding for several projects in the UAE.  Allan said they are in the final stage of negotiation on three projects in the UAE. “One is in the wastewater treatment area and other are in MEP (mechanical, electrical, and plumbing),” Allan said, without giving any project details. DSI to complete capital reduction by end of third quarter (Source: Reuters)  Drake & Scull International (DSI) expects to complete a plan to reduce its capital by 75 percent by the end of the third quarter, deferring the process by one month, its chief executive said.  The capital reduction is the first phase of a plan to revive DSI's fortunes amid a slump in the Gulf's construction market as governments have cut back on project spending as a result of the fall in oil prices.  The second phase of DSI's restructuring plan involves a 500 million dirham ($136 million) capital increase by Tabarak. DSI's capital reduction plan was one of the conditions for investment by Tabarak.  The firm didn't reveal specific information on where the capital injection will be spent. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC News GCC will see 'modest' growth until 2019, says World Bank (Source: Arabian Business)  GCC economic growth is expected to pick up gradually between now and 2019, but oil production cuts continue to weigh on recovery, according to a World Bank report.  Growth will rise from around 1.3% in 2017 to 2.6 percent in 2019, the World Bank projects in the first edition of its new Gulf Economic Monitor, to be produced half-yearly.  The report indicates that, although growth in the non-oil sector has bottomed out, overall growth will remain weighed down by oil production cuts.  Regional fiscal and current account balances are expected to improve, but they are unlikely to return to pre-2014 double-digit surpluses, and the contribution from net exports to growth is expected to remain small over the short-to-medium term.  Geopolitical developments in the region continue to bring downside risks, while OPEC’s production cuts could also be undercut by quickacting non-conventional energy producers in North America, the World Bank said.  Still, oil prices are set to stabilise at close to current levels and the pace of fiscal austerity is slowing. With wider economic reforms planned in the region, spending and sentiment in the non-oil sector will continue to lift over the coming 18 months, according to the report. Saudi Oger said to close down, lay off staff by June end (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Arabia’s labor ministry will transfer employees of financially-troubled Saudi Oger to other firms, amid reports that the construction firm has decided to lay off its staff and shut down offices by the end of this month, as per news sources.  As many as 8,000 employees are working for the giant construction group, including 1,200 Saudis, and the ministry is aiming to transfer about 600 Saudis to other companies.  The Human Resources Development Fund (HADAF) was also ordered to find jobs for the remaining Saudi employees. Meanwhile, a total of 6,000 expatriates will be moved to other companies.  According to an AFP report, the company’s last day of existence would be June 30. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage - Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 6/19/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11