GCC - Equity Market Monitor - 6 June

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g June 6, 2017 6/6/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% ‐15.0% Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return QTD Return Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) ( ) UAE (ADX) ( ) Kuwait ‐ PI ‐0.4% 0.5% ‐0.7% 0.0% ‐0.4% Kuwait  ‐ Wtd ‐0.8% ‐6.5% ‐0.3% ‐3.4% 1.4% ‐6.0% ‐0.7% ‐1.4% 1.3% 18.4% 0.3% ‐2.6% ‐0.5% ‐4.7% 0.9% ‐3.2% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Qatar Bahrain ‐7.3% ‐0.4% 5.7% ‐0.6% ‐11.8% ‐7.1% 8.7% 0.5% ‐2.7% ‐11.4% ‐2.1%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 2.270 million (c. US$ 5.9 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Ooredoo Oman Services 401,813 17.7% Omantel Services 373 067 373,067 16 4% 16.4% BUY SELL NET 1,942,597 1,942,597  2,045,469 2,045,469  (102,872) GCC 225,924  98,751  127,173  Al Anwar Holding Inv Hldg 193,207 8.5% Arabs 18,310  6,550  11,760  Al Madina Takaful Insurance 170,634 7.5% OTHERS 82,966  119,027  (36,061) Renaissance Serv. Services 125,187 5.5% OMANIS MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,249,301  13.1 1.1 5.9% MSM 30 5,405.73 5,427.89 ‐0.41% ‐0.30% ‐6.52% Financial 3,373,438  8.5 0.9 5.0% Financial 8,060.99 8,103.74 ‐0.53% ‐0.01% 5.07% Industrial 908,155  12.9 1.3 5.4% Industrial 7,288.05 7,310.47 ‐0.31% ‐0.09% ‐1.61% Services 2,625,897  61.6 1.7 7.0% Services 2,739.52 2,748.09 ‐0.31% ‐1.15% ‐10.44% MSM Shariah 2,456,900  13.1 1.5 6.7% 794.72 799.33 ‐0.58% 0.19% ‐8.55% MSM Shariah 6/6/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   % Chg MENA  Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD 13,520.1 0.2 1.4 2,169.8 ‐0.4 ‐0.2 5,739.5 0.1 0.7 24,311.2 0.1 0.4 526.6 ‐0.3 ‐0.3 98,192.0 ‐0.7 0.7 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) 118.9 ‐0.8 ‐0.1 96.7 ‐0.9 ‐0.2 S&P GCC LMC S&P GCC (USD) S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return  S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return  MSCI GCC MSCI GCC MSCI Frontier  MSCI Frontier ex GCC MSCI Arabian Index %QTD %YTD   4.0 ‐3.6 3.5 1.8 ‐2.3 10.4 9.5 0.0 4.6 ‐0.6 ‐0.7 25.7 ‐1.3 ‐2.0 ‐2.3 ‐2.7 979.3 ‐2.9 ‐2.2 ‐3.8 ‐2.4 1,593.0 465 1 465.1 568.8 881.8 508.2 ‐2.9 ‐0.8 08 0.0 0.3 ‐0.8 ‐2.2 02 0.2 1.3 1.7 0.2 ‐2.9 ‐1.4 14 5.9 7.1 ‐1.2 1.4 ‐2.4 24 13.9 17.0 ‐2.1 Index  S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,436.1 21,184.0 6,295.7 62,450.5 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX , 7,525.8 5,307.9 12,822.9 Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia 20,048.9 25,962.4 31 284 0 31,284.0 3,089.5 2,368.6 1,044.3 Closing  % Chg %MTD %QTD Index %YTD  ‐0.2 1.0 4.2 10.3 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,897.7 ‐0.2 1.1 5.8 12.2 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,695.2 ‐0.3 0.6 8.0 15.2 MSCI EM Index 1,017.6 0.2 1.2 6.2 18.0 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 583 6 583.6 ‐0.4 04 05 0.5 39 3.9 59 5.9 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 230.3 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 1.0 ‐0.5 ‐3.9 ‐6.3 Commodity (Bloomberg)  82.0 0.0 ‐1.0 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %YTD   1.0 0.8 1.6 ‐0.4 3.1 2.5 6.5 ‐3.9 8.8 7.2 17.0 3.7 ‐0.3 ‐0.7 1.2 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.8 3.6 4.1 5.4 9.2 11.7 ‐0.6 0.4 ‐0 0.1 1 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.2 2.0 1.2 04 0.4 ‐0.9 0.9 ‐0.9 6.0 7.7 56 5.6 ‐4.1 9.6 ‐6.2 4.9 18.0 17 5 17.5 ‐0.5 16.9 ‐9.4 %QTD %YTD %YTD  ‐3.8 5.9 ‐1.0 1.6 3.0 3.8 4.1 1.3 ‐0.3 0.8 ‐1.8 0.3 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐5.5 7.2 ‐0.1 6.6 4.8 5.4 5.8 2.2 ‐0.5 5.6 3.9 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 Global Currencies 1,931.7 Commodity  %QTD Asia Pacific Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.2 ‐0.1 %MTD Europe Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing   % Chg Americas  4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 96.570 1.128 1.346 109.680 1.293 8.641 0.963 6.797 7.793 64.336 0.749 13283.000 3.523 0.385 3.673 3.751 0.303 3.646 0.377 ‐0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.4 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.1
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD  Index  Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  Benzene FOB Korea Spot 765.0 740.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 745.0 ‐2.0 ‐8.0 ‐10.8 Benzene CFR India Spot 750.0 ‐2.0 ‐8.0 ‐10.7 ‐10.1 ‐10.8 NYMEX Crude 47.2 ‐0.5 ‐2.4 ‐8.3 ‐16.9 ICE Brent Crude 49.2 ‐0.5 ‐3.1 ‐8.8 ‐16.3 Crude Oil, Oman  48.3 ‐1.0 ‐3.3 ‐6.9 ‐11.0 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.0 0.2 ‐2.7 ‐9.9 ‐16.6 152.8 ‐0.7 ‐4.3 ‐9.3 ‐17.4 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,286.8 0.6 1.4 3.0 11.7 Silver Spot 17.6 0.4 1.8 ‐3.4 10.8 Platinum Spot  960.4 0.7 1.1 1.0 6.3 Palladium Spot  841.5 0.0 3.1 5.4 22.8 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 900 1 1,900.1 ‐1.5 15 ‐1.3 13 ‐2.7 27 11 5 11.5 LME Copper‐Spot 5,597.8 ‐0.7 ‐1.1 ‐3.8 1.4 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,469.0 ‐1.8 ‐4.6 ‐10.2 ‐3.5 LME Lead‐Spot 2,082.8 ‐0.3 ‐0.8 ‐10.6 4.2 LME Nickel‐Spot 8 866 8 8,866.8 ‐0.1 01 ‐0.6 06 ‐11.0 11 0 ‐11.0 11 0 Steel  US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  580.0 0.9 0.9 ‐4.9 ‐4.6 Agriculture  C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  372 0 372.0 ‐0.3 03 00 0.0 01 0.1 21 2.1 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  431.8 0.5 0.6 ‐1.7 ‐0.6 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  921.0 ‐0.1 0.5 ‐3.8 ‐9.6 ‐6 5 ‐6.5 ‐36 7 ‐36.7 ‐14 6 ‐14.6 Shipping  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  821 0 821.0 ‐1 1 ‐1.1 %MTD %QTD %YTD ‐6.7 ‐8.1 ‐10.0 ‐10.8 Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Closing ‐6.1 ‐2.0 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  413.2 ‐4.9 Naphtha C&F Japan  432.5 ‐0.9 ‐7.8 ‐12.9 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 412.6 ‐3.7 ‐11.9 ‐15.1 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  46.8 ‐0.9 ‐7.8 ‐12.8 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  1,125.0 1.4 ‐5.5 21.6 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 925.0 ‐5.6 ‐15.5 ‐16.3 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 920.0 ‐5.6 ‐15.6 ‐16.4 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot 855 0 855.0 ‐0.6 06 24 2.4 ‐1.2 12 8.6 Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 945.0 ‐1.1 ‐8.3 2EH CFR South East Asia 965.0 ‐1.0 ‐8.1 8.4 DOP CFR Far East Asia 975.0 ‐1.0 1.0 ‐1.0 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  8,885.0 ‐2.8 ‐2.9 ‐9.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 1,090.0 0.0 ‐4.4 ‐6.8 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,120.0 0.9 ‐3.5 ‐4.3 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,130.0 0.0 ‐3.4 0.0 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  1,600.0 2.6 ‐3.6 3.2 UREA Cornbelt 225.0 0.0 ‐10.0 ‐18.2 UREA Middle East 199.0 ‐5.2 ‐6.1 ‐18.8 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 340 8 340.8 ‐2.8 28 ‐8.0 80 ‐1.3 13 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 6/6/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News OTI to buy 40 % stake in Hass Petroleum (Source: ONA, Oman Tribune)  Oman Trading International is to acquire 40% in Hass Petroleum, a leading regional oil marketing company with significant presence across African markets. OTI will provide its supply and trading capabilities to strengthen Hass service across the region.  In turn, Hass will enhance OTI’s market access to African markets. Hass will continue to operate its business and work closely with OTI to grow and maintain long long‐standing standing relationships with customers, suppliers and regulators.  This acquisition is in line with the long‐term strategies of the two companies. OTI’s strategic priority of accelerating its growth by entering emerging markets with strong growth potential ties closely to Hass plan of being Africa’s leading oil marketing company.  g supplier pp of refined p products to the Southern and East African region, g , this transaction will enable OTI and Hass to strengthen g its As a regular businesses across and beyond an already substantial African footprint, the statement added.  The completion of the transaction remains subject to approval by the relevant authorities. Raeco p plans 78MW p power p plant in Musandam ((Source: Times off Oman))  Rural Areas Electricity Co (Raeco) is planning a gas‐fired independent power project (IPP) with a generation capacity of 78 megawatt (MW) in the Musandam governorate of Oman, according to a seven‐year outlook statement from the Oman Power and Water Procurement Co (OPWP).  The current plan is to bring these units online once total demand (in Musandam) increases beyond 100 megawatt, which, as per Raeco’s demand forecast, is expected to be in 2019.  A private developer, who wins the concession agreement through a competitive tender, will build the project for selling electricity to Raeco. The capital expenditure for the project is not known.  Musandam Power Company is a joint venture between Oman Oil Company, the government’s investment arm in the energy‐related sectors, holding a 70% stake, and LG International, which owns the remaining 30% stake. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Alizz Islamic Bank ‐ Possible Merger between Alizz Islamic Bank and United Finance Co (Source: MSM)  Alizz Islamic Bank has disclosed that it has expressed interest in the possibility of strategic merger with United Finance Company subject to conducting due diligence.  No legally binding commitment has been made and the transaction remains subject to approval by the regulators and other stakeholders. Oman real GDP growth to grow to 2.4%‐ Word Bank (Source: ONA)  Oman’s real GDP growth will increase to 2.4% in 2018 and 2.9% in 2019 compared to 0.9% in 2017, according to World Bank report published on its website under the theme '' Global Economy Outlook Outlook'‘  The Bank said that growth in the region is projected to fall to 2.1% in 2017 as the adverse impact of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production cuts on oil exporters outweighs modestly improving conditions in oil importers.  Growth is expected to pick up to 2.9% 2 9% in 2018, 2018 assuming a moderation of geopolitical tensions and an increase in oil prices. prices  The World Bank forecasts global economic growth to strengthen to 2.7% in 2017 as a pickup in manufacturing and trade, rising market confidence, and stabilizing commodity prices allow growth to resume in commodity‐exporting emerging and developing economies. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Volatility to prevail amid increase in risk aversion, MSM to find support closer to 5,360 levels… During the last trading session, we saw most of the regional markets ending on a negative note amid prevailing diplomatic tensions. Qatar declined sharply 7% for the day, while Saudi revealed outperformance gaining 0.5% on expectations of MSCI EM inclusion. Oman ended in red declining by 0.4% 0 4% on selling pressure seen in select index heavyweights. heavyweights We anticipate the local and regional markets to see continued volatility with further reactions to the ongoing tensions. Over the short term, the risk aversion to increase within the GCC region. In terms of the local market, the MSM is back and trading around 5,400 levels, which will remain as initial support and to test next support around 5,360 points. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE  News UAE’s non‐oil business growth declines in May 2017 (Source: Argaam)  Growth in the United Arab Emirates’ non‐oil business slowed down last month, although the rate of expansion remained strong, Emirates NBD said. The seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the UAE declined to 54.3 in May from 56.1 in April.  Output and business activity of the firms surveyed increased on average (57.4) last month, but the rate of growth was the slowest since April 2016, the h survey showed. h d New order d growth h also l slowed l d (57.5) ( ) as export orders d were broadly b dl unchanged h d month‐on‐month. h h  Employment was slightly higher in May at 50.7. Both input and output prices declined last month, as firms competed to secure new work, the report noted. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC  News Bahri to inject $139 million in Aramco Ras Al‐Khair shipyard project (Source: Argaam)  The National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia (Bahri) will inject SAR 522.4 million ($139 million) in the Ras Al‐Khair maritime yard project, which is set to be the Gulf region’s largest shipyard.  Other shareholders, including UAE’s Lamprell Energy and South Korea‐based Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. Ltd will inject SAR 2.63 billion ($700 million), million) Bahri said in a statement. statement  Bahri’s holds a 19.9% share in the project, while Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Saudi Aramco) owns 50.1%, Lamprell Energy 20%, and Hyundai Heavy Industries 10%.  g to p purchase not less than 75% % of its required q commercial vessels over a 10‐year y period p Elsewhere,, Bahri said it inked an off‐take agreement from the project’s start date, or around 52 vessels, including very large crude carriers. Saudi non‐oil growth drops to six‐month low in May 2017 (Source: Argaam)  Growth in Saudi Arabia’s non‐oil sector slipped to a six‐month low in May, as tough competition in external markets weighed on export orders, Emirates NBD said in a report.  The headline seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 55.3 in May, from 56.5 in April, the report said. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 6/6/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11