Oman Weekly Market Monitor - 5 February
Oman Weekly Market Monitor - 5 February
Transcription
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research February 5, 2017 Current Week Index Performance MSM 30 . Financial Industrial Services Previous Week WTD (%) YTD (%) Beta (Yr) 5,802.62 5,750.96 0.90% 0.34% 1.000 8,057.81 7,934.54 1.55% 5.03% 1.210 7,694.35 7,597.68 1.27% 3.88% 0.736 3,017.93 3,021.82 ‐0.13% ‐1.33% 0.600 Positive sentiments prevail, Index trades above 5,800 levels… During the last week, MSM Index witnessed a modest surge of 0.9% and closed the week above 5,800 points lead by ongoing dividend season. For the week, the Financial Index and Industrial Index advanced 1.55% and 1.27% respectively. The Services Index ended the week lower by 0.13%. In terms of market activity, a total of 87.532 million shares got traded during the week amounting to an aggregate turnover of RO 17.865 million as against RO 17.066 million in previous week. In terms of participation, Omani Investors remained as net buyers to an extent of RO 3.145 million. GCC and Foreign Investors emerged as net sellers to an extent of RO 1.751 million and RO 1.429 million respectively. Source: MSM, GBCM Research MSM 30 Index Performance Vs Turnover 7,000 In RO 000s 5,810 5,800 5,790 5,780 5,770 5,760 5,750 5,740 5,730 5,720 5,710 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 ‐ Turnover 26‐Jan 5,919 29‐Jan 3,103 30‐Jan 5,871 31‐Jan 3,147 1‐Feb 5,063 2‐Feb 4,677 MSM 30 5,751 5,763 5,751 5,776 5,793 5,803 MSM Weekly Trading Activity ‐ Total Turnover RO 17.865 million (c. US$ 46.5 million) S Fig. In RO Omanis GCC Arabs Buy Sell Net Buy / (Sell) 14,831,613 11,685,950 3,145,663 255,196 2,006,256 (1,751,060) 129,140 95,212 33,928 2,649,131 Others 4,077,661 (1,428,530) Oman Trade Balance data‐ September 2016 Oman Trade Balance registered RO942.2 million in surplus till Sep 2016, as per official data. Total commodity exports stood at RO7.5 billion till the end of Sep 2016, comprising a decline by 28.2%, compared to the same period in 2015. Oman commodity imports stood at RO6.5 billion till the end of September 2016, comprising a decline by 21.4%. The total value of oil and gas exports stood at RO4.1 billion till the end of September 2016, comprising a decline by 32.9%. (Source: ONA) Outlook for the upcoming week… During the previous trading week, we saw most of the GCC markets ending on a negative note amid mixed set of ongoing earnings season and also on traders profit booking trend. UAE (ADX) and Qatar closed 3.8% lower for the week. While Oman and Bahrain ended higher by 0.9% WTD and 0.6% WTD respectively. We anticipate the local and the regional markets to open on a flattish note and reveal sideways movement for the week. We do expect the upcoming dividends season to bring in buying interest from the regional institutions. We also see the continued risk on rally in the global equities to remain as triggers for the GCC markets over the short to medium term. We see MSM index support around 5,760 points and resistance is seen at 5,840 levels. Source: MSM, GBCM Research Page | 1
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research Value Leaders‐Weekly 4,500 Top Five Gainers/ Losers for the Week 21.7% 25% Construction Mat Ind 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Al Anwar Ceramic 15% 1,500 1,000 10% 6.0% Bank Dhofar 5.6% 5.7% 6.1% 5% Muscat Finance 9.3% Galfar Engg 9.8% Al Fajar Al Alamia ‐3.2% National Gas ‐1.8% 8.4% 0 Bank Muscat ‐4.7% Alizz Islamic Bank ‐2.9% 9.8% 2,000 500 Al Jazeera Services 20% ‐5.3% NBO Al Madina Bank Dhofar Takaful 0% Oman Fisheries Al Hassan Engg 18.8% MSM Sectoral Market cap for the week Volume Leaders‐ Weekly 14,000 12,000 10,000 15.1% 16% 13.2% 14% 12% 9.8% 9.1% 8,000 6,000 4,000 7.1% Banking, 33.5% 8% 6% 4% Telecom, 16.9% Investments, 6.2% 2% Al Madina Investment Power Utilities, 12.2% 10% 2,000 0 Other Services, 5.0% Al Madina Bank Muscat Oman Fisheries Takaful National Bank Of Oman Oil Marketing, 4.9% Other Industry, 11.3% Engg & Const., 0.5% 0% Leasing, 2.9% Cement, 5.1% Source: MSM, GBCM Research Page | 2 Source: MSM, GBCM Research Insurance, 1.3% Brokerage, 0.3%
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research MSM ‐ Value Indicators GCC‐ Market Performance for the week PER 6,681,262 9.4 1.2 5.5% 3,402,732 8.8 0.9 4.7% 1,000,480 15.6 1.4 5.1% 2,952,817 10.1 1.8 6.4% 0.0% ` 2,780,501 10.5 1.7 6.1% ‐5.0% MSM 30 Index Dividend Yield (%) P/BV Industrial Services MSM Shariah 20.0% 15.0% Financial 25.0% Mkt. Cap (RO’000s) Value Indicators Source: MSM, GBCM Research 10.0% 5.0% Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (Abu Dhabi) WTD (%) 0.9% ‐0.5% ‐2.1% YTD (%) 0.3% ‐1.6% 2.6% Kuwait Qatar Bahrain ‐3.8% ‐0.1% ‐3.8% 0.6% ‐2.2% 19.1% 1.3% 7.2% Commodities Performance for the week Commodities Current Week Last Week WTD (%) 53.8 53.2 1.2% ICE Brent Crude 56.8 55.5 2.3% Crude Oil, Oman 55.7 53.8 3.5% NYMEX Natural Gas 3.1 3.4 ‐8.8% 155.4 152.7 1.7% NYMEX WTI Crude NYMEX Gasoline Gold Spot 1,220.2 1,191.3 2.4% Silver Spot 17.5 17.1 2.1% LME Aluminium (Spot) 1,821.8 1,815.3 0.4% LME Copper (Spot) 5,763.8 5,883.5 ‐2.0% LME Zinc (Spot) 2,793.8 2,741.5 1.9% Hot Rolled Coil ‐ Steel 620.0 618.0 0.3% CBOT Corn 365.3 362.5 0.8% 430.3 420.5 2.3% 1,027.0 1,049.3 ‐2.1% CBOT Wheat CBOT Soyabean Oman ‐ Weekly News watch… Oman Cables has announced that it has successfully negotiated the purchase of the remaining 60% stake in Associated Cables Private Limited India. The stake was purchased from Draka UK Group Limited and Prysmian Treasury BV. The relevant regulatory approvals and the companies’ shareholder approval are being sought for this, as per the Chairman report. (Source: MSM) Bank Muscat has proposed 30% dividend for the year 2016. Continuing the Bank’s strong dividend payment track record, the Board of Directors have proposed 25% cash dividend for the year 2016 which is consistent with the cash dividend paid in the last many years. (Source: MSM) GCC ‐ Weekly News Watch… Agthia Group reported a net profit of Dh254.3 million up 10% on the previous year. The net revenues grew 8% to Dh2.01 billion the company said. (Source: Trade Arabia) Jarir Marketing Co. has opened a new showroom in Kuwait at a cost of SAR 15 million, the company said in a statement to Tadawul. The retailer expects the financial impact of the launch to show in Q1 2017 (Source: Argaam) Source: Bloomberg; GBCM Research Page | 3
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage – Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727| Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728| Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. Page | 4
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