GCC Equity Market Monitor - 15 June

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA , Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage June 15, 2017 6/15/2017
2. GCC - Equity Market Monitor 20 .0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Daily Return Oman -0.2% Saudi 0.5% UAE (DFM) 0.3% UAE (ADX) 0.0% Kuwait - PI 0.0% Kuwait - Wtd 0.1% Qatar 1.0% Bahrain 0.0% YTD Return -8.3% -4.9% -2.3% -0.2% 17.9% 4.9% -11.9% 8.7% MTD Return -2.2% -0.3% 3.3% 2.4% -0.1% -1.5% -7.2% 0.6% QTD Return -4.5% -2.1% -0.9% 2.1% -3.6% -3.6% -11.6% -2.1% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2
3. MSM - Net Buy /(Sell) Position Top 5 - Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 1.622 million (c. US$ 4.2 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Bank Muscat Banking 282,068 17.4% Insurance 145,470 9.0% BUY SELL NET 1,381,661 1,387,954 (6,292) Al Madina Takaful GCC 41,413 130,747 (89,334) Ooredoo Services 127,412 7.9% Arabs 8,101 13,758 (5,657) Bank Nizwa Banking 123,951 7.6% 190,735 89,451 101,283 Oman Tel Services 122,779 7.6% OMANIS OTHERS MSM - Lead Indicators Value Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend Yield (%) Indices Monitor Current Closing Previous Closing Daily % MTD % Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,102,711 12.8 1.1 6.1% MSM 30 5,300.71 5,313.71 -0.24% -2.24% -8.34% Financial 3,309,378 8.3 0.9 5.0% Financial 7,950.87 7,969.65 -0.24% -1.37% 3.64% Industrial 881,849 12.5 1.3 5.6% Industrial 7,112.55 7,127.52 -0.21% -2.50% -3.98% Services 2,564,216 60.1 1.7 7.1% Services 2,694.57 2,697.75 -0.12% -2.77% -11.91% MSM Shariah 2,386,319 12.7 1.5 6.9% 777.74 780.31 -0.33% -1.95% -10.50% MSM Shariah 6/15/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA Markets Performance Index Global Markets Performance Closing % Chg MENA 13,502.1 -0.2 Egypt Jordan Tunis Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD 1.2 2,160.2 0.1 -0.7 5,856.1 0.0 2.8 24,607.2 0.3 1.6 533.5 0.0 1.0 99,636.3 0.3 2.1 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 118.0 0.4 -0.8 S&P GCC (USD) 96.1 0.4 -0.8 981.8 0.2 -1.9 S&P GCC (40 Index)- Price return S&P GCC (40 Index)- Total return 1,597.1 0.2 -1.9 MSCI GCC 461.6 0.5 -0.6 MSCI Frontier 563.8 0.1 0.4 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 876.9 0.2 1.2 MSCI Arabian Index 504.7 0.5 -0.5 %QTD %YTD 3.9 -4.0 5.6 3.0 -1.0 12.0 9.4 -0.5 6.7 0.6 0.6 27.5 -2.0 -2.6 -3.5 -2.7 -2.2 5.0 6.5 -1.8 -3.0 -3.3 -2.1 1.6 -3.2 12.9 16.4 -2.8 Index Closing % Chg Americas S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,437.9 21,374.6 6,194.9 61,922.9 Index Closing Nikkei Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD 1,930.5 0.1 1.0 4.1 10.2 MSCI World -Ex USA 1,893.4 0.4 0.8 5.6 12.0 MSCI Europe- USD 1,679.9 0.3 -0.3 7.0 14.2 MSCI EM Index 1,013.7 0.4 0.8 5.8 17.6 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO USD Vs Canadian Dollar USD Vs Japanese Yen USD Vs GBP USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar USD Vs Indian Rupee USD Vs Aus Dollar USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot USD Vs Omani Riyal USD Vs UAE Dirham USD Vs Saudi Riyal USD Vs Kuwait Dinar USD Vs Qatar Riyal USD Vs Bahrain Dinar Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices) US 10+ Yr TR 590.4 1.6 1.7 5.1 7.1 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 232.9 0.3 1.0 2.2 0.7 -5.3 -7.6 Commodity (Bloomberg) Commodity 80.8 -0.1 -2.4 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %QTD %YTD 1.1 1.7 -0.1 -1.3 3.2 3.4 4.8 -4.7 8.9 8.2 15.1 2.8 -0.6 -0.8 1.5 2.1 2.4 4.0 4.6 7.8 11.5 0.9 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.6 -3.8 4.9 6.2 5.2 -2.9 9.3 -9.0 3.8 16.4 17.0 0.8 16.5 -12.0 %QTD %YTD -3.4 5.3 0.6 1.5 1.6 3.1 3.3 1.4 -0.4 0.9 -0.2 0.3 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 -0.6 -0.1 -5.2 6.6 1.5 6.6 3.3 4.6 4.9 2.2 -0.6 5.7 5.6 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 -0.6 -0.1 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD Europe 7,474.4 -0.3 5,243.3 -0.4 12,806.0 0.3 Asia Pacific 19,832.2 -0.3 25,608.1 -1.0 31,158.3 0.0 3,129.4 0.0 2,360.7 -0.5 1,013.8 -1.7 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Global Benchmark Indices -0.1 0.2 -0.4 0.2 %MTD 4 Closing % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 96.943 1.122 1.324 109.710 1.275 8.702 0.971 6.794 7.799 64.275 0.761 13,283.000 3.495 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.303 3.662 0.377 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 1.9 1.0 -1.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.4 2.4 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0
5. Commodities Performance Index Closing Petrochemical Performance % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD Index Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam Benzene FOB Korea Spot 785.0 745.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot Benzene CFR India Spot NYMEX Crude 44.7 -0.1 -7.5 -13.1 -21.2 ICE Brent Crude 47.0 0.1 -7.3 -12.9 -20.0 Crude Oil, Oman 45.9 -3.7 -8.2 -11.6 -15.5 NYMEX Natural Gas 2.9 0.5 -4.0 -11.1 -17.8 143.6 0.2 -10.1 -14.8 -22.4 Precious Metals Gold Spot 1,263.7 0.2 -0.4 1.1 9.7 Silver Spot 17.0 0.4 -2.1 -7.1 6.6 Platinum Spot 936.5 -0.1 -1.4 -1.5 3.7 Palladium Spot 857.0 0.4 5.0 7.3 25.0 Base Metals LME Aluminium-Spot 1,872.5 -0.3 -2.8 -4.1 9.9 LME Copper-Spot 5,668.5 -0.3 0.2 -2.5 2.6 LME Zinc-Spot 2,476.0 0.9 -4.3 -10.0 -3.2 LME Lead-Spot 2,056.0 1.2 -2.1 -11.8 2.8 LME Nickel-Spot 8,883.0 1.7 -0.4 -10.8 -10.8 Steel US - Hot Roll Coil Steel 590.0 -1.0 2.6 -3.3 -3.0 Agriculture Corn - Active Contract 377.5 0.1 1.5 1.5 3.6 Wheat - Active Contract 444.0 0.2 3.4 1.1 2.2 CBOT - Soya bean 937.8 -0.1 2.1 -1.7 -5.2 Shipping Baltic Dry Index 865.0 -0.6 %QTD %YTD -3.7 -1.3 -4.3 -7.5 -7.7 -10.2 750.0 -1.3 -7.4 -10.2 755.0 -1.3 -7.4 -10.1 %MTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT) Energy NYMEX Gasoline Closing -1.5 -33.3 -10.0 Condensates (in USD/ MT) European Naptha 400.6 -7.8 -12.8 -13.5 Naphtha C&F Japan 417.8 -4.3 -10.9 -15.9 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 394.7 -7.9 -15.8 -18.8 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot 45.2 -4.4 -11.0 -15.8 Olefins (in USD/ MT) Ethylene Spot 1,125.0 1.4 -5.5 21.6 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 885.0 -9.7 -19.2 -19.9 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 880.0 -9.7 -19.3 -20.0 Propylene FOB Korea Spot 805.0 -6.4 -3.6 -6.9 8.6 Intermediate (in USD/ MT) 2EH CFR Far East Asia 945.0 -1.1 -8.3 2EH CFR South East Asia 965.0 -1.0 -8.1 8.4 DOP CFR Far East Asia 950.0 -3.6 -1.6 -3.6 -3.3 -0.5 -3.4 -4.8 -9.5 -7.3 Polymers (in USD/ MT) LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT) Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 8,835.0 1,085.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,110.0 0.0 -4.3 -5.1 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,120.0 -0.9 -4.3 -0.9 Urea (in USD/ MT) Urea Price (RMB/ MT) 1,645.0 1.5 -0.9 6.1 UREA Cornbelt 220.0 -2.2 -12.0 -20.0 UREA Middle East 205.0 -2.4 -3.3 -16.3 US Urea Avg. Retail Price 342.8 -2.2 -7.5 -0.7 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 6/15/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Tenders worth RO 66 million awarded for 24 projects (Source: Oman Observer)  The Tender Board held its sixth meeting of the year AND awarded RO 66. 225 million worth tenders for the following key projects:  Supply of medicines for the different health institutions of the Ministry of Health (RO 19,578,147).  Extending the employment contracts for the teaching staff at the different colleges of technologies under the Ministry of Manpower (RO 35,990,760).  Additional work for the supply of lab and blood transfusion equipment for the Ministry of Health for 2016 (RO 5,087,683).  Additional works for the maintenance and repair of the floating dock at the Wilayat of Muttrah in the Governorate of Muscat, the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (RO 832,720).  Additional works for the transport of 1,000 cubic metres-2,500 cubic metres of potable water from Izz water tanker filling stations in the Wilayat of Manah to Al Masifa, Al Yemen, Al Alam and Maghyouth villages at the Wilayat of Izki — the Public Authority for Electricity and Water (RO 807,840).  Additional works for the construction of a centre for blood diseases and marrow transplantation at Sultan Qaboos University Hospital (RO 796,154). RO 100m Qurayyat water project to come on stream before year-end (Source: Oman Observer)  A major Independent Water Project (IWP) currently nearing completion at Qurayyat is due to come into production before the end of this year, helping bolster water desalination capacity in a region that continues to witness strong potable water demand growth.  The Qurayyat Desalination Company, a joint venture between Hyflux Limited (85 per cent) of Singapore and locally based Modern Channel Services (15 per cent), is developing the 200,000 cubic metres per day (44 million imperial gallons per day MIGD) capacity water desalination plant at a cost of around RO 100 million.  The plant, originally contracted to come into service ahead of summer — when water demand typically peaks — is now scheduled to be operational in the fourth quarter of this year, according to Oman Power and Water Procurement Company (OPWP), the sole off-taker of all electricity and water output under the Sector Law. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Kuwait Petroleum , SK Said in Talks on $7B Oman Refinery Project (Source: Bloomberg)  Kuwait Petroleum International, Oman Oil Co. are in negotiations with South Korea’s SK Innovation as potential third partner in Duqm refinery and petrochemical complex project in Oman, according to person with knowledge of matter.  Talks are for SK to take ~10% stake. Duqm refinery seeking to finance 65% of total capital expenditure from international and local lenders, export credit agencies.  SK Innovation has held talks to take part in the project, and no decision has been made, co. spokeswoman Kim Wookyung says, without providing further details. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM - Market Watch Source : Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – To open on a flat note… During the last trading day, except Oman rest of the GCC indices closed flat or on a positive note. For the day we expect MSM Index to open on a flat note and to witness stock specific activity.. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE News DP breaks ground on marina at $272m mixed-use project (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai Properties, a leading UAE-based real estate master developer and asset manager, has broken ground on the newest marina in Dubai at Marasi Business Bay.  The installation of the pontoons, which marked the occasion, took place in the presence of Abdulla Lahej, group CEO of Dubai Properties at the Marasi Business Bay Promenade.  Launched by Dubai Holding and Dubai Properties Group in May 2016, the Dh1-billion ($272 million) mixed-use Marasi Business Bay is well on track to becoming the city’s most sought-after waterfront destination.  Set for completion in the third quarter, Phase One of the marina will feature 157 berths varying in size from 8 to 35 m that are fitted out with all essential facilities for boat owners, including potable water, power supply, drainage and sewage in line with the highest international standards. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC News Over 120 ,000 hotel rooms under construction in MEA (Source: Trade Arabia)  The hospitality market of Middle East and Africa (MEA) is on track for growth with a total of 124,823 rooms under construction in the region, said a report.  Of the total, about 93,984 are under construction in the Middle East - up 15.5 per cent in year-over-year comparisons, while the rest are in the African region, said a report, according to the May pipeline report from STR.  Saudi Arabia topped the MEA list for the largest number of rooms under construction with the total put at 40,145 rooms in 95 hotels.  Three other markets reported more than 5,000 rooms under construction in the region: UAE (32,604 rooms in 116 projects), Qatar (9,147 rooms in 37 projects) and Egypt (4,775 rooms in 14 projects). Credit Agricole plans part sale of Saudi Fransi stake: report (Source: Argaam)  Credit Agricole is considering selling part of its 31% stake in Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF), Bloomberg reported.  The lender has discussed the partial sale of its Saudi business portfolio with the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) and started talks with potential bidders. JPMorgan Chase & Co. is advising Credit Agricole on the sale, it was reported.  Credit Agricole may consider selling more of the stake, valued at SAR 10 billion, in the future. Gulf Union, Al Ahlia working on merger terms, says CEO (Source: Argaam)  Gulf Union Cooperative Insurance Co. and Al Ahlia for Cooperative Insurance are working on the memorandum of understanding and terms for the potential merger, chief executive Munir Al-Borno, told Argaam .  Gulf Union is positive about the planned merger, he said, as it believes that Al Ahlia is an “appropriate partner”.  The insurance firms decided in March to begin initial talks with for a potential merger. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage - Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 6/15/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11