MENA Markets Weekly Wrap

Transcription

1. Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” Weekly Wrap 27 Aug 2017 Equity Watch Indicators MENA Markets Saudi (TASI) Turkey ISE National 100 Abu Dhabi (ADI) Qatar(QE Index) Kuwait SE WT.INDEX Dubai (DFMGI) Morocco (CAI) Egypt (Hermes) Jordan (Amman) Bahrain (BAX) Oman(Muscat SM) Lebanon (BSE) Emerging Markets MSCI EM Index MSCI FM Index Shanghai A Share Index SENSEX Index (India) S&P GCC Composite Developed Markets MSCI WORLD Index US (S&P 500) UK (FTSE) Japan (Nikkei 225) Germany (DAX) * M. Cap (USD Bn) Last Close WTD % MTD % YTD % 457 201 133 106 96 84 65 37 22 21 14 8 7,246 109,755 4,494 8,952 430 3,624 12,203 1,176 4,017 1,302 4,947 1,160 0.92 2.38 0.03 -1.70 1.11 0.65 -0.36 -1.79 -0.54 0.25 1.18 1.02 1.82 1.91 -1.82 -5.47 3.36 0.43 -0.98 -3.58 -1.94 -2.27 -2.31 -0.68 0.5 40.5 -1.2 -14.2 13.0 2.7 4.8 8.0 -1.3 6.7 -14.5 -4.3 4 9 6 0 -0 12 30 73 -4 0 7 4 15 10 11 13 14 10 20 9 14 9 10 6 4.3 2.9 5.4 4.6 5.8 4.7 3.5 3.6 4.7 5.1 6.1 5.9 4,677 112 4,847 850 894 1,085 1,055 3,489 31,596 100 2.44 1.64 1.91 0.23 0.64 2.11 1.93 2.41 -2.21 0.47 25.9 18.4 7.4 18.7 1.0 9 2 -12 2 4 15 15 16 24 15 2.4 3.5 1.8 1.2 3.4 1,945 0.73 2,443 0.72 7,401 1.06 19,354 -1.77 12,181 -0.19 -0.80 -1.18 0.45 -3.04 0.15 11.0 9.1 3.6 1.3 6.1 5 10 14 0 7 22 22 22 16 13 2.4 2.4 4.0 1.8 2.8 37,640 21,997 2,631 3,170 1,357 2016 P/E Div. % TTM Yield Yield Curve Watch LIBOR (In %) KIBOR Yield Curve (%) Interest Rate Watch Deposit rate - P/E & Div. Yield for GCC as per Zawya Fixed Income Watch (*Bond & Sukuk Index) Government Bonds YTM % 2016-End, % YTD Chng, % Spread (bps) Duration (yrs) US Tres. 10yr 2.171 2.431 -0.260 8.98 Germany 10yr 0.377 0.208 0.169 -179.4 9.74 U.K Japan India 10yr 10yr 10yr 1.061 0.009 6.535 1.250 0.041 6.610 -0.189 -0.032 -0.075 -111.0 -216.2 436.3 8.64 9.76 7.16 China 10yr 3.670 3.005 0.665 149.9 8.19 Close WTD % MTD % YTD % 1,291.03 0.54 1.76 12.1 17.06 0.73 2.38 7.0 52.41 -0.59 -0.21 -7.8 435.38 -0.56 -1.69 3.1 S&P GCC MENA* 3.17 3.38 -0.210 99.9 n/a 11.28 1.19 109.34 0.30 0.36 -20.90 -1.38 -0.16 0.03 -1.36 9.62 -1.46 1.20 0.07 -1.42 2016 Price Close 1,151.46 15.934 56.82 422.27 2016% 9 16 52 13 14.04 1.0513 116.87 0.30538 0.321 -23 -3 -3 1 -3 -19.7 -11.8 6.9 1.3 -10.7 Blue Chip Watch M. % Cap W Companies Last (USD T Bn) D Saudi Arabia (SAR) SABIC 79 98.6 0.5 STC 40 74.8 0.9 AL-RAJHI BANK 29 66.3 3.4 NCB 28 53.0 4.1 SEC 26 23.2 -1.7 United Arab Emirates (AED) ETISALAT 43 18.0 0.0 FIRST AD BK 31 10.6 0.0 DP WORLD 18 21.7 0.4 EMAAR PROP 17 8.5 1.3 EMIRATES NBD 13 8.3 0.0 Kuwait (KWD) NBK 15 0.74 1.2 KFH 11 0.59 1.9 ZAIN 7 0.50 -1.4 P WARE H_AGLTY 4 0.87 3.1 BOUBYAN 3 0.43 0.5 Qatar (QAR) QNB 33 131.0 -3.0 INDUSTRIE QAT 15 92.5 -1.6 MASARAF AL RAY 8 39.5 -2.2 EZDAN HOLIDING 8 11.1 -4.4 OOREDOO 8 88.5 -1.9 % M T D 1.3 0.8 6.9 7.0 -2.7 16 16 13 11 10 6.9 6.7 2.4 2.7 4.3 5,235 2,527 2,221 2,703 4,936 80 5 10 3 N.M. US 3M Rate % Diff 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 Next FOMC FY16 Diff 0.01 -0.14 0.19 0.65 -0.01 -0.45 0.30 0.75 -1.02 -0.74 0.70 0.80 -1.74 -1.41 -1.11 -0.65 -2.26 -1.90 -1.62 -1.20 Mt Date: Sep 19/20 5 year CDS (USD) Watch (bps) Country Current 2016 Saudi Arabia Abu-Dhabi Dubai Qatar Oman Bahrain 89.17 56.49 119.41 93.31 192.50 234.36 113.67 67.98 159.77 88.2 263.5 302.72 52-week High Low 169.17 86.26 79.30 38.72 172.80 103.91 124.66 56.64 276.00 185.50 391.57 209.09 Corporate Earnings Watch % P PAT (Mn) Y 2016 / Div % Gr T % E yield Q12017 YoY D (ttm) 7.8 19 3.2 6 5.2 21 24.4 -16 3.6 42 3M Int rates % Kuwait 1.31 Saudi 1.49 UAE 1.29 Qatar 1.60 Oman 0.28 Bahrain 2.00 Euro -0.44 UK 0.19 Switzerland -0.96 Japan -0.32 Last FOMC Meeting Date: July 25/26 Commodity/Currency/Volatility Watch Precious Metals Gold $/oz Silver $/oz IPE Brent $/bbl CRB Commodity Index Volatility & Currency CBOE VIX index USD (1 EUR =) Yen (1 USD =) KWD (1 USD =) KWD (1 EUR =) US Treasuries (In %) Company Name N/A Earnings Type Country Currency LFY PFY % Chg News & Views  -4.3 -4.5 17 -0.5 6.1 26 -5.9 23.6 -14 3.5 19.6 25 2.0 -2.2 15 18 13 18 11 7 4.5 4.2 1.8 1.8 4.8 2,091 1,143 1,384 1,873 5 -14 15 4 6.2 9.3 13.1 3.9 4.3 15 17 12 19 24 3.9 2.6 7.0 1.6 1.3 85 39 38 15 11 8 13 3 11 17 19.5 -13 19.2 10 22.4 17 54.9 29 14.8 -6 -5.1 -11.5 12 -3.9 -21.3 6 -5.6 11 0 -15.0 -14 -5 -7.6 -6 36 9 22 5.1 4.5 4.0 2.4 4.3 5.1 4.5 4.0 3,204 928 510 946 584 12 33 -6 61 -34 Note: 1 Weekend Details – Turkey, Morocco & Lebanon – Saturday & Sunday; MENA, Ex-Turkey, Morocco & Lebanon – Friday & Saturday; US, European & Emerging Markets – Saturday & Sunday. Markaz Research can now be accessed on Bloomberg. Type “MRKZ” <Go>. Kuwait’s current account surplus fell for the first time in three quarters at the start of 2017, narrowing from USD 1.98Bn in Q4 of 2016 to USD 994Mn in Q1 2017. The fall was on the back of deterioration in the goods balance, a decline in investment income and a rebound in net service outflows, reported the National Bank17of Kuwait. 17.7 -5.9 0.3 -6.1 17 4.5 2 1.7 1.1 22.2 -14 18 1.4  Fitch Ratings warned United States if the debt limit- is not 1.5 raised 1.8 in 8.2a timely 2 11 manner, prior to a likely October deadline, it would review the U.S. sovereign 0 1.9 1.9 7.1 26 11 4.2 rating, with potentially negative implications. 42  About 25 percent of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production is offline due to Tropical Storm Harvey. That equates to roughly 428,568 barrels of oil per day out of the roughly 1.75 million bpd pumped from the Gulf. About 26 percent or about 835 million cubic feet per day of Gulf natural gas production is also offline.  Saudi Arabia and China are to cooperate on nuclear energy projects following discussions between the two countries this week on ways to support the kingdom's nuclear energy programme, state news agency SPA reported. This report has been prepared and issued by Kuwait Financial Centre K.P.S.C (Markaz), which is regulated by the Capital Markets Authority and the Central Bank of Kuwait. The report is owned by Markaz and is privileged and proprietary and is subject to copyrights. Sale of any copies of this report is strictly prohibited. This report cannot be quoted without the prior written consent of Markaz. Any user after obtaining Markaz permission to use this report must clearly mention the source as “Markaz “. This Report is intended to be circulated for general information only and should not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but in no way are warranted by us as to its accuracy or completeness. Markaz has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report. For further information, please contact ‘Markaz’ at P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095, Kuwait. Tel: 00965 1804800 Fax: 00965 22450647. Email: research@markaz.com 7.2