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GCC Equity Market Monitor - 10 April

Majed Salah
By Majed Salah
7 years ago
GCC Equity Market Monitor - 10 April

Ard, Dinar, Shariah

Sukuk

Banking

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  1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g April 10, 2017 4/10/2017
  2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait ‐ PI ‐0.3% ‐3.2% 0.9% ‐0.2% ‐2.1% 0.8% ‐0.3% 0.7% 2.1% ‐0.5% 1.0% 3.3% ‐0.2% 22.0% ‐0.2% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 i Kuwait ‐ Wtd 0.4% 11.0% 2.0% Qatar Bahrain 0.5% 0.7% 1.1% 1.6% 12.6% 1.4%
  3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 2.856 million (c. US$ 7.4 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share United Power‐Pref Utilities 970,440 33.9% BUY SELL NET 1,625,043 1,625,043  1,266,099 1,266,099  358,943 358,943  Ooredoo Services 361 422 361,422 12 6% 12.6% GCC 60,031  217,326  (157,295) Omantel Services 211,682 7.4% Arabs 16,669  13,601  3,067  Bank Nizwa Banking 188,128 6.6% 1,157,083  1,361,799  (204,716) Bank Muscat Banking 147,955 5.2% OMANIS OTHERS MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,456,927  10.3 1.1 5.7% MSM 30 5,598.26 5,613.35 ‐0.27% 0.86% ‐3.19% Financial 3,340,872  8.7 0.9 5.0% Financial 8,032.77 8,069.09 ‐0.45% 2.53% 4.70% Industrial 984,494  16.5 1.4 5.0% Industrial 7,674.67 7,751.68 ‐0.99% ‐1.62% 3.61% Services 2,790,394  11.9 1.7 6.6% Services 2,863.69 2,865.61 ‐0.07% ‐0.76% ‐6.38% MSM Shariah 2,640,797  10.8 1.6 6.2% 833.39 838.14 ‐0.57% ‐1.20% ‐4.10% MSM Shariah 4/10/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
  4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   MENA  % Chg %MTD %YTD   ‐0.8 ‐0.5 1.0 ‐0.8 ‐2.9 ‐0.5 4.5 3.2 2.0 ‐3.1 ‐1.3 13.3 1.4 1.3 1.9 2.3 1.4 1.3 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.6 3.4 6.8 0.4 9.0 10.0 0.3 Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey 12,895.1 ‐1.6 2,238.9 ‐0.2 5,598.0 0.1 23,702.7 0.2 523.2 ‐1.3 88,497.3 ‐0.2 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 122.1 0.0 S&P GCC (USD) 100.0 0.0 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return  1,036.9 0.0 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return  1,678.5 0.0 MSCI GCC MSCI GCC 478.5 0.1 MSCI Frontier  544.2 0.3 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 829.0 0.3 MSCI Arabian Index 520.5 0.0 Index  Closing   Americas  % Chg %MTD %YTD   S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,355.5 20,656.1 5,877.8 64,593.1 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 ‐0.3 0.0 ‐0.6 ‐0.6 5.2 4.5 9.2 7.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 ‐0.7 2.9 5.6 6.5 0.6 0.0 01 0.1 ‐0.3 ‐1.1 ‐3.1 ‐0.7 0.7 04 0.4 1.7 ‐1.4 0.0 ‐1.8 10.3 11 7 11.7 5.6 5.1 ‐3.4 %MTD %YTD %YTD  0.9 ‐0.6 ‐0.8 0.0 ‐1.3 ‐1.2 ‐0.7 ‐0.3 0.0 0.6 ‐1.9 0.0 ‐2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0 ‐1.0 0.6 0.2 5.0 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.6 ‐0.2 5.4 3.9 1.2 ‐5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 Europe FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Asia Pacific Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing  % Chg %MTD %YTD  1,845.5 ‐0.1 ‐0.4 5.4 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,782.0 0.0 ‐0.6 5.4 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,558.7 ‐0.2 ‐0.7 6.0 961.6 ‐0.2 0.3 11.5 MSCI EM Index Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 562 3 562.3 ‐0.3 03 01 0.1 20 2.0 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 229.4 0.2 0.6 ‐0.8 0.4 ‐2.1 Commodity (Bloomberg)  Commodity  85.7 ‐0.2 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing 18,778.2 24,273.6 29 746 3 29,746.3 3,276.9 2,129.1 1,113.5 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD , 7,349.4 5,135.3 12,225.1 4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg In Comparison with USD 101.220 1.059 1.342 111.410 1.239 9.080 1.009 6.906 7.770 64.458 0.749 13316.000 3.729 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.305 3.641 0.377 0.0 ‐0.1 ‐0.2 ‐0.3 0.1 ‐0.1 0.0 ‐0.1 0.0 ‐0.3 ‐0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0
  5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %YTD  NYMEX Crude 52.4 0.3 3.5 ‐6.5 ICE Brent Crude 55.3 0.2 3.4 ‐5.3 Crude Oil, Oman  53.9 0.7 4.0 ‐0.6 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.2 ‐0.4 1.8 ‐8.3 174.7 0.0 2.6 ‐6.6 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,253.5 ‐0.1 0.3 8.8 Silver Spot 18.0 ‐0.3 ‐1.7 12.8 Platinum Spot  951.3 ‐0.3 0.1 5.3 Palladium Spot  797.4 ‐0.8 ‐0.1 16.6 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 947 0 1,947.0 04 0.4 ‐0.3 03 14 3 14.3 LME Copper‐Spot 5,798.8 ‐0.5 ‐0.3 5.0 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,663.0 ‐1.4 ‐3.2 4.1 LME Lead‐Spot 2,244.8 ‐1.8 ‐3.7 12.3 LME Nickel‐Spot 10 123 0 10,123.0 10 1.0 16 1.6 16 1.6 Steel  655.0 US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  0.0 4.0 %YTD ‐19.2 ‐3.5 ‐16.6 ‐3.0 810.0 ‐16.5 ‐3.0 Benzene CFR India Spot 815.0 ‐16.4 ‐3.0 4.5 3.6 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  480.0 Naphtha C&F Japan  488.8 4.2 ‐1.6 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 477.1 1.8 ‐1.9 p g p p Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  53.0 4.4 ‐1.3 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  1,190.0 3.5 28.7 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,095.0 ‐15.4 ‐0.9 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,090.0 ‐15.5 ‐0.9 835 0 835.0 ‐14.8 14 8 ‐3.5 35 5.6 18.4 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 1,030.0 2EH CFR South East Asia 1,050.0 5.5 18.0 965.0 ‐4.9 ‐2.0 DOP CFR Far East Asia Polymers (in USD/ MT)  1.4 ‐5.0 ‐5.0 ‐2.6 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,160.0 ‐4.9 ‐0.9 y p Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,170.0 , ‐0.9 3.5 1,660.0 ‐3.2 7.1 UREA Cornbelt 245.0 ‐2.0 ‐10.9 UREA Middle East 212.0 0.0 ‐13.5 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 363 0 363.0 ‐2.0 20 51 5.1 05 0.5 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  424.0 0.0 ‐0.6 0.8 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  945.3 ‐6.6 Shipping  ‐5 7 ‐5.7 805.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 9,275.0 ‐1.4 14 07 0.7 Benzene FOB Korea Spot 1,140.0 ‐0.1 01 ‐0.1 820.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 359 3 359.3 0.3 Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  7.4 C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  %MTD LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  Agriculture  1 223 0 1,223.0 Closing A Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  i (i USD/ MT) Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Index  27 3 27.3 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 4/10/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
  6. Oman News Tourism Ministry allocates four Tourism sites for Investment by local companies (Source: ONA)  Ministry of Tourism has allocated four tourism sites at four governorates for investment by local companies through usufruct rights. The allocation of the four sites comes as the first initiative within the government's efforts to develop the Omani tourism sector.  The four tourist sites proposed for investment are Al Saadah District in the Wilayat of Ibri in the Governorate of A'Dhahirah, the Wilayat of Nakhl Heights in the Governorate of South Al Batinah, Al Jawabi in the Wilayat of Ja Ja'alan alan bani Bu Ali in the Governorate of South A'Sharqiyah, Al Ghabbi in the Wilayat of Bidiyah in the Governorate of North A'Sharqiyah.  The proposed project for Al Saadah District in the Wilayat of Ibri in the Governorate of A'Dhahirah the rate is a 3‐star hotel at least, an integrated station and other facilities deemed appropriate by the local company.  The proposed project for the Wilayat of Nakhal Heights in the Governorate of South Al Batinah, which stretches over 10,000 square meters, includes high‐end hotel apartments at least, in addition to other entertainment facilities deemed appropriate by the local company.  The proposed project for Al Jawabi in the wilayat of Ja'alan bani Bu Ali in the Governorate of South A'Sharqiyah, which streteches over 10,000 square meters, includes a recreation center, other service and hotel facilities deemed appropriate by the local company.  The proposed project for Al Ghabbi in the Wilayat of Bidiyah in the Governorate of North A'Sharqiyah, which stretches over 50,000 square meters includes a hotel facilities, green spaces and other entertainment facilities deemed appropriate by the local company. Bids for Phase 1 of Oman’s Ras Markaz crude terminal due next month (Source: Oman Observer)  Bids for the first phase of an ambitious crude oil storage park at Ras Markaz on Oman’s southeastern coast are due in next month, project. j accordingg to a keyy official associated with the p  Oman Tank Terminal Company (OTTCO), a wholly owned subsidiary of Oman Oil Company (OOC), the government’s energy and strategic investment arm, is developing the world‐scale storage terminal as an integral part of the nearby Duqm Special Economic Zone (SEZ).  Phase 1 of the strategic facility, envisaging the development of around 20 million barrels of crude storage capacity plus associated infrastructure, is currently under tender. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
  7. Oman News Voltamp Energy reports Q1 2017 results (Source: MSM)  Total revenue for Q1 2017 is at RO 9.71 million as compared to RO 8.694 million in the same period of last year, reporting an increase of 11.7% YoY. This is below our estimates  Total expenses for the quarter also increased by 12.1% YoY to RO 8.889 million. Net profit after tax of the company for Q1 is at RO 733K as compared to RO 670K in the same period of last year, an increase of 9.4% YoY. Overall the reported Q1 numbers is below our estimates Sohar Poultry reports 9M 2016/17 results (Source: MSM)  Total revenue for 9M 2016/17 stood at RO 5.961 5 961 million as compared to RO 6.158 6 158 million in the same period of last year, year reporting a decline of 3.2% YoY.  9M total operating expenses increased by 5.2% YoY to RO 2.827 million. Net profit for the period stood at RO 313K as compared to RO 323K in the same period of last year. Packaging Co reports Q1 2017 results (Source: MSM)  Total revenue for Q1 stood at RO 2.282 million as compared to RO 2.337 million in the same period last year, decline of 2.3% YoY.  Total expenses for the period declined by 5.8% YoY to RO 1.941 million. Net profit for the quarter increased by 23.6% YoY to RO 341K as compared to RO 275K in the same period last year. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
  8. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Stock specific activity to prevail ahead of Q1 earnings, MSM support seen at 5,590 levels… During the previous trading session, we saw range bound activity in most of the GCC markets with outperformance trend seen in the Qatari equities. equities We saw overall decline in the investor participation post the dividend season in the region. region MSM ended in red for the day along with subdued trading volumes (excluding a block transaction in United Power). We anticipate Oman and the GCC markets to open on a flattish note for the day and to see stock specific activity ahead of the upcoming Q1 earnings season. On the technical front, MSM to see support closer to 5,590 points, which would remain critical for the short term. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
  9. UAE  News Mubadala expected to raise over $1 billion with dual‐tranche bond (Source: Reuters)  Abu Dhabi’s government‐owned fund Mubadala will raise in excess of $1 billion with a dual‐tranche dollar bond, as per news sources.  The bond issuance, with tranches of seven and 12 years, is expected to be of benchmark size for each tranche. Benchmark bonds are traditionally meant to be upwards of $500 million.  Barclays, HSBC, Natixis, National Bank of Abu Dhabi, SMBC Nikko and Standard Chartered are the joint lead managers and bookrunners for the new deal.  The company started pre‐marketing the potential transaction to investors last week and will have a global investor call on April 10. The deal is expected t d to t price i as early l as April A il 11. 11 Azizi awards $462.85 million contracts for 35 buildings in Dubai (Source: Trade Arabia)  Azizi Developments has awarded two construction contracts worth Dh1.7 billion ($462.85 $ million) to build 35 buildings in the Meydan One development. The contract is for two out of four phases that will be constructed this year, the company said.  KCC Engineering Construction & Maintenance and Actco General Contracting Co were appointed to build the multi‐phase project. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
  10. GCC News Saudi finance minister says no income taxes for Saudi citizens (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Arabia's finance minister said that citizens would not pay taxes on income and Saudi companies would not see their profits taxed under sweeping economic reforms being introduced in the oil‐rich kingdom.  The collapse in oil prices after mid‐2014 has pushed Saudi Arabia to contemplate a radical overhaul of all parts of its economy, including new taxes, privatizations, a changed h d investment strategy and d sharp h cuts in government spending. d  As per the statement from the minister, a value‐added tax planned for 2018 would not be raised above 5% before 2020 Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery to begin ops within a year (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery is expected to come on stream within one year, as per news sources citing Saudi energy minister. A royal decree was issued in 2013 to the state‐owned oil producer to build an oil refinery to develop the first phase of Jazan Economic City.  The refinery will have the capacity to process 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and produce 80,000 bpd of gasoline, 250,000 bpd of ultra‐low sulphur diesel, and over one million tons annually of benzene and paraxylene products.  The Jazan refinery is part of a SAR 26 billion project that includes a 2,400 megawatt power plant to meet the refinery’s energy demands GBCM Morning Briefing 10
  11. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 4/10/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11