GCC Equity Market Monitor - 7 June

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA , Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage June 7, 2017 6/7/2017
2. GCC - Equity Market Monitor 20 .0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Daily Return Oman 0.1% Saudi -0.5% UAE (DFM) 0.1% UAE (ADX) -0.5% Kuwait - PI 0.0% Kuwait - Wtd 0.2% Qatar -1.6% Bahrain -0.1% YTD Return -6.4% -3.8% -5.9% -1.9% 18.3% 5.9% -13.2% 8.6% MTD Return -0.2% 0.9% -0.5% 0.7% 0.2% -0.5% -8.5% 0.4% QTD Return -2.5% -1.0% -4.5% 0.4% -3.2% -2.6% -12.8% -2.3% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2
3. MSM - Net Buy /(Sell) Position Top 5 - Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 2.679 million (c. US$ 6.9 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Gulf Invs. Services Invs/Hldg 675,442 25.2% Raysut Cement Industry 317,098 11.8% Bank Nizwa Banking 268,727 10.0% BUY SELL NET 2,446,893 2,607,672 (160,779) GCC 158,061 24,718 133,343 Arabs 33,641 27,029 6,612 Acwa Power Barka Utilities 197,257 7.4% OTHERS 39,938 19,113 20,825 Bank Sohar Banking 187,484 7.0% OMANIS MSM - Lead Indicators Value Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend Yield (%) Indices Monitor Current Closing Previous Closing Daily % MTD % Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,222,544 13.0 1.1 5.9% MSM 30 5,411.93 5,405.73 0.11% -0.18% -6.41% Financial 3,356,706 8.5 0.9 5.0% Financial 8,081.02 8,060.99 0.25% 0.24% 5.33% Industrial 907,442 12.9 1.3 5.5% Industrial 7,302.82 7,288.05 0.20% 0.11% -1.41% Services 2,615,648 61.3 1.7 7.0% Services 2,739.82 2,739.52 0.01% -1.14% -10.43% MSM Shariah 2,447,194 13.0 1.5 6.7% 797.35 794.72 0.33% 0.52% -8.25% MSM Shariah 6/7/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA Markets Performance Index Global Markets Performance Closing % Chg MENA 13,626.8 0.8 Egypt Jordan Tunis Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD 2.2 2,165.6 -0.2 -0.4 5,772.0 0.6 1.3 24,311.2 0.1 0.4 527.0 0.1 -0.2 98,331.5 0.1 0.8 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 118.4 -0.4 -0.5 S&P GCC (USD) 96.3 -0.5 -0.7 975.4 -0.4 -2.6 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return 1,586.7 -0.4 -2.6 MSCI GCC 462.7 -0.5 -0.4 MSCI Frontier 568.6 0.0 1.3 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 881.7 0.0 1.7 MSCI Arabian Index 505.9 -0.4 -0.3 %QTD %YTD 4.9 -3.8 4.1 1.8 -2.2 10.6 10.4 -0.2 5.2 -0.6 -0.6 25.8 -1.7 -2.4 -4.1 -3.3 -2.0 5.9 7.1 -1.6 -2.7 -3.2 -2.8 1.0 -2.9 13.9 17.0 -2.5 Index Closing % Chg Americas S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,429.3 21,136.2 6,275.1 62,954.7 Index Closing Nikkei Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD 1,926.1 -0.3 0.7 3.9 10.0 MSCI World -Ex USA 1,892.0 -0.3 0.8 5.5 11.9 MSCI Europe- USD 1,686.1 -0.5 0.1 7.4 14.6 MSCI EM Index 1,015.9 -0.2 1.1 6.0 17.8 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO USD Vs Canadian Dollar USD Vs Japanese Yen USD Vs GBP USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar USD Vs Indian Rupee USD Vs Aus Dollar USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot USD Vs Omani Riyal USD Vs UAE Dirham USD Vs Saudi Riyal USD Vs Kuwait Dinar USD Vs Qatar Riyal USD Vs Bahrain Dinar Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices) US 10+ Yr TR 586.1 0.4 0.9 4.4 6.3 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 230.9 0.3 0.2 1.3 -0.2 -3.3 -5.7 Commodity (Bloomberg) Commodity 82.6 0.1 -0.3 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %QTD %YTD 0.7 0.6 1.2 0.4 2.8 2.3 6.1 -3.1 8.5 7.0 16.6 4.5 0.1 -0.3 0.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 5.3 8.4 10.5 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 -1.1 5.8 7.8 5.7 -2.6 9.5 -6.5 4.7 18.2 17.6 1.1 16.7 -9.6 %QTD %YTD -3.7 5.8 -1.1 1.7 2.8 3.5 4.1 1.4 -0.3 0.6 -1.2 0.1 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -5.4 7.1 -0.1 6.7 4.6 5.0 5.8 2.2 -0.5 5.4 4.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 -0.2 -0.1 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD Europe 7,525.0 0.0 5,269.2 -0.7 12,690.1 -1.0 Asia Pacific 20,012.2 0.2 25,996.6 0.0 31,303.2 0.4 3,137.9 1.2 2,364.5 -0.2 1,041.2 -0.3 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Global Benchmark Indices -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.8 %MTD 4 Closing % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 96.651 1.127 1.346 109.580 1.291 8.671 0.963 6.794 7.794 64.438 0.754 13,307.000 3.515 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.303 3.649 0.377 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.1
5. Commodities Performance Index Closing Petrochemical Performance % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD Index Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam Benzene FOB Korea Spot 765.0 740.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot Benzene CFR India Spot NYMEX Crude 48.1 -0.1 -0.4 -6.4 -15.2 ICE Brent Crude 50.1 -0.1 -1.4 -7.3 -14.9 Crude Oil, Oman 48.9 1.4 -2.0 -5.7 -9.8 NYMEX Natural Gas 3.1 0.7 -0.3 -7.7 -14.6 153.4 -1.3 -3.9 -9.0 -17.1 Precious Metals Gold Spot 1,291.6 -0.2 1.8 3.4 12.1 Silver Spot 17.7 -0.3 1.9 -3.3 11.0 Platinum Spot 959.3 -0.2 1.0 0.9 6.2 Palladium Spot 848.5 0.0 4.0 6.3 23.8 Base Metals LME Aluminium-Spot 1,898.3 -0.1 -1.4 -2.8 11.4 LME Copper-Spot 5,586.0 -0.2 -1.3 -4.0 1.1 LME Zinc-Spot 2,442.0 -1.1 -5.6 -11.2 -4.5 LME Lead-Spot 2,051.0 -1.5 -2.3 -12.0 2.6 LME Nickel-Spot 8,816.0 -0.6 -1.2 -11.5 -11.5 Steel US - Hot Roll Coil Steel 589.0 1.6 2.4 -3.4 -3.1 Agriculture Corn - Active Contract 379.3 0.5 1.9 2.0 4.1 Wheat - Active Contract 439.0 0.7 2.3 0.0 1.1 CBOT - Soya bean 928.0 0.5 1.3 -3.0 -8.9 Shipping Baltic Dry Index 818.0 -0.4 %QTD %YTD -6.1 -2.0 -6.7 -8.1 -10.0 -10.8 745.0 -2.0 -8.0 -10.8 750.0 -2.0 -8.0 -10.7 -9.4 -10.2 %MTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT) Energy NYMEX Gasoline Closing -6.8 -36.9 -14.9 Condensates (in USD/ MT) European Naptha 416.0 -4.3 Naphtha C&F Japan 425.6 -2.5 -9.3 -14.3 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 418.2 -2.4 -10.8 -14.0 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot 46.1 -2.6 -9.3 -14.2 Olefins (in USD/ MT) Ethylene Spot 1,125.0 1.4 -5.5 21.6 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 925.0 -5.6 -15.5 -16.3 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 920.0 -5.6 -15.6 -16.4 Propylene FOB Korea Spot 855.0 -0.6 2.4 -1.2 8.6 Intermediate (in USD/ MT) 2EH CFR Far East Asia 945.0 -1.1 -8.3 2EH CFR South East Asia 965.0 -1.0 -8.1 8.4 DOP CFR Far East Asia 975.0 -1.0 1.0 -1.0 Polymers (in USD/ MT) LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT) Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 8,865.0 1,090.0 -3.0 0.0 -3.1 -4.4 -9.2 -6.8 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,120.0 0.9 -3.5 -4.3 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,130.0 0.0 -3.4 0.0 0.6 -1.8 5.2 Urea (in USD/ MT) Urea Price (RMB/ MT) 1,630.0 UREA Cornbelt 225.0 0.0 -10.0 -18.2 UREA Middle East 199.0 -5.2 -6.1 -18.8 US Urea Avg. Retail Price 356.3 1.7 -3.8 3.2 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 6/7/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Tenders for tourism projects (Source: Oman Observer)  The Ministry of Tourism has announced the rollout of three tenders for preparing layouts for tourism projects in a number of governorates across the Sultanate.  The aim is to identify projects needed in each area and enable the ministry to offer them for investment. Tenders will include pre-qualification and consultative services for preparing layouts for tourism projects in Muscat Governorate, wilayats of Sur, Masirah in South Al Sharqiyah Governorate, Nizwa and Jabal Shams in Al Dakhiliyah Governorate.  Tenders are aimed at identifying ways to tap the potential for unique tourism experience as well as adding new touristic experiences.  July 19 is the last date for submitting bids and July 27 for receiving the tender documents. The ministry began implementing the general tourism layout for Dhofar Governorate, which is slated to be finalised in the third quarter of this year.  The ministry strives to develop a number of touristic experiences that attract tourists and boost the Sultanate’s competitiveness as part of the Sultanate’s tourism strategy. ODB funds projects worth RO466m (Source: Oman Observer)  The total loans provided by Oman Development Bank from July 1997 to March 2017 amounted to 57,616 loans in all development sectors with a total value of about RO 466.691 million with an annual average of 2,881 loans worth RO23.334 million.  The projects financed by ODB range from industrial, commercial, agricultural, fisheries and services (including health, education, tourism and public services sectors). ODB is one of the governmental entities that seek to support the various productive sectors in the Sultanate.  More than 40.8 per cent of the total value of loans disbursed by the bank since its inception was for the industrial projects.  The bank believes that the industrial sector is the most economically viable in the Vision 2020 and is the largest incubator for small and medium enterprises. Fisheries sector is the most prominent sectors financed by Oman Development Bank.  The projects financed by the bank in this promising sector amounted to 27,757 loans at a rate of 48.2% and a total value of RO 95.740 million representing 20.5% of the total value of loans financed by the bank between July 1997 and Q1 2017. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Eight firms in fray for Duqm power and water scheme (Source: Oman Observer)  The Centralised Utilities Company (Marafiq), an Omani-Singaporean joint venture dedicated to meeting the utility needs of major industries at the Duqm Special Economic Zone (SEZ), has invited international firms to bid for its contract for the construction of an integrated power and water project in Duqm (DIPWP).  A total of eight international contracting firms have been prequalified to participate in the tender for the design and construction of the power and water project which, significantly, will also be integrated with a seawater intake facility planned at the SEZ.  The complex includes a gas-fired 300 MW combined cycle power plant integrated with a 1,500 cubic metres per hour seawater reverse osmosis (RO) desalination plant.  Also included in the tender for the engineering-procurement-construction (EPC) contract is a seawater intake system designed to provide cooling water for, among other projects, the $7 billion Duqm Refinery currently under development at the SEZ.  A 25-year utilities service agreement signed with the Special Economic Zone Authority of Duqm (SEZAD) grants Marafiq exclusive rights to provide various utilities and industrial gases to all of the major industries operating within the zone. Asyad in talks with private player for Duqm port rail (Source: Oman Tribune)  Discussions are continuing with a private investor to develop the 1billion-rial railway connecting Shuwaymiyah and Manji in Dhofar with Duqm port for transporting minerals. The lines will be developed with private participation, according to Asyad (Oman Global Logistics Group) CEO Abdulrahman Al Hatmi.  The private investor is to develop rail lines that could transport limestone from Manji and gypsum from Shuwaymiyah to Duqm port, a total distance of 350km.  Commercial development, which was extracting minerals and selling them, would be profitable as per the financial model, but had to be verified by the companies through reserves certification. The corridor is likely to become the first for the Sultanate national rail network.  Asyad includes Sohar Port and Freezone, Salalah Port, Salalah Freezone, Duqm Port, Oman International Container Terminal, Khazaen, Oman Shipping Company, Oman Rail, Oman Drydock Company, Oman Post, Mwasalat, National Ferries Company and International Maritime College Oman. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. Oman News CBO Treasury Bills Tender Results (Source: ONA)  A tender of Government Treasury Bills, issue number 036, was held at the Central Bank of Oman (CBO) and the results of issue are as follows:  The total value of the allotted Treasury bills amounted to RO 50 million, for a maturity period of 28 days, from 7th June until 5th July 2017.  The average accepted price reached 99.942 for every RO 100, and the minimum accepted price arrived at 99.935 per RO 100.  The average discount rate and the average yield reached 0.75276% and 0.75321% respectively. Note that the interest rate on the Repo operations with CBO is 1.584% for the period from 06/06/2017 to 12/06/2017 while the discount rate on the Treasury Bills Discounting Facility with CBO is 2.334% for the same period. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. MSM - Market Watch Source : Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Volatility in the market to prevail … During the last trading session, we saw the regional markets ending on a mixed note amid prevailing diplomatic tensions. Qatar declined further by 1.6% for the day, while Saudi and ADX fell by 0.5% each . Oman ended in green by increasing marginally by 0.1%. We anticipate the local and regional markets to see continued volatility with further reactions to the ongoing tensions. Over the short term, the risk aversion to increase within the GCC region. In terms of the local market, the MSM is back and trading around 5,400 levels, which will remain as initial support and to test next support around 5,360 points. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. UAE News Four consortiums in race for Dubai solar park Phase IV (Source: Trade Arabia)  Four international consortiums have submitted bids to Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) for the 200 MW Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant being developed as part of the fourth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.  The lowest international bid presented to Dewa was for 9.45 cents per kilowatt hour (kW/h), said senior officials who opened the bids today (June 6) at Dewa head office.  The Dubai utility is working to build the biggest CSP project in the world based on the independent power producer (IPP) model. The 200 MW CSP plant will be operational by April 2021, with other CSP projects eventually generating a total of 1,000 MW by 2030.  Last October Dewa had invited energy companies to send expressions of interest (EOI) for the 200 MW solar CSP plant. By the month-end, 30 international solar IPP players had sent EOIs.  The request for proposals (RFP) was released to qualified bidders in January and the last date for submission of the tender was May. Rising output, new orders lift UAE business morale to 8-month high (Source: Khaleej Times)  The level of business confidence in the UAE climbed in May to its highest level since September 2016, with market pundits forecasting growth in output.  Emirates NBD Future Output Index rose to its highest level since September 2016 and May data signalled a further increase in business activity at the non-oil private sector firms. Though the rate of expansion eased to the weakest in 13 months, it was sharp overall.  Approximately 16 per cent of firms registered higher output growth in May, with firms widely linking this to strong underlying demand conditions and new projects.   The headline seasonally adjusted Emirates NBD UAE Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - a composite indicator designed to give an accurate overview of operating conditions in the non-oil private sector economy - edged down from 56.1 in April to 54.3 in May. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. GCC News Americana to withdraw from Kuwait bourse (Source: Argaam)  Shareholders of Americana Group (Kuwait Food Company), in which Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) has an indirect stake, approved the company’s voluntary withdrawal from Kuwait Stock Exchange.  The company’s new owners decided to withdraw from Kuwait Stock Exchange, and will return to it when the time is right, vice chairman, Badr Al-Jouan said following the Ordinary General Meeting. Shareholders also approved a new board of directors for the new three-year term.  Dubai-based investment consortium Adeptio owns 93.4% of Americana, which has operations across 13 countries and owns the Middle East franchises for fast food chains KFC and Pizza Hut.  Saudi Arabia’s PIF bought a 50% of Adeptio last November from the GCC consortium. GBCM Morning Briefing 11
12. | Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage - Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 6/7/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 12