Global Markets Research - Weekly Highlights (HLB)

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1. September 23 , 2016 Global Markets Research Weekly Market Highlights Macroeconomics Weekly Performance • Macro Currency Equity ↔ ↔ ↔ ↓ ↔ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ US EU UK Japan ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Malaysia Hong Kong ↔ ↔ Singapore ↑ China Central banks’ policy decisions took center stage this week, all of which hint at 10-y Govt Bond Yields limited scope for policy maneouver. The Fed left rates unchanged at 0.25-0.50% as expected, with a 7-3 vote. While policy makers continued to signal that a rate hike ↓ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↓ remains on the table this year amid more upbeat assessment on economic conditions and roughly balanced economic risks, overall tone was less hawkish ↓ ↔ evident in dialed-back rate forecasts for 2017-2018. • BOJ’s policy tweak from monetary base expansion to yield-curve and interest rate targeting was the next in focus. Instead of cutting benchmark interest rate or raising the annual increase in monetary base, BOJ seeks to influence the yield curve by advocating purchase of JGBs to keep 10-year bond yields at the current level of close to zero percent, to reanchor inflation expectatins. • ↓ A barrge of first-tier data are scheduled for release next week. In the US, the final reading of 2Q GDP is on the deck, besides personal income/ spending reports, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, home sales and few regional Fed manufacturing gauges. Although these dataflow will add noises to Fed rate hike expectations as usual, we believe none of these will change the underlying fundamentals of the US economy. Back home, trade report for the month of August is due and we expect continued contraction in exports amid sluggish global demand and soft commodity prices. Forex Weekly MYR Performance • MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW) -1.93 USD -0.69 HKD -0.58 -0.41 MYR Appreciated taking activities. Upsides are likely to be moderate as there is likely some retracement from recent shap gains. Technically, USDMYR was rejected by 4.1550 from recent attempt to push higher and is likely to head lower. The next level lower EUR -0.73 is likely to test 4.1042 before which there is scope to drop to 4.0708. The pair needs to break above 4.1550 to reinstate the bullish bias that was lost, which if it does, poses a threat to 4.1757. MYR Depreciated CNY • CHF -0.20 SGD JPY AUD -3.00 risk appetite and firmer oil prices. We are slightly bullish on MYR next week in anticipation of a subdued USD, coupled with extended recovery in oil and risk GBP -1.04 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 MYR strengthened 0.73% WOW to 4.1075 against USD and advanced against 6 G10s, rebounding from sharp losses in the early week with support from improving supported by sharp losses in EUR and GBP in the early week. Despite clearer signal that a Fed rate hike is on the horizon, the overall interepretation of FOMC’s decision is that policy tightening will be less aggressive than previously expected. This highlights some uncertainty on whether the US economy could withstand 0.60 0.97 1.00 USD fell against 5 G10s after tumbling post-FOMC decision to unwind early gains. The Dollar Index however, held on to gains to close 0.16% WOW higher at 95.44, 2.00 consecutive rate hikes, which raises the risk of potential risks to the upside in policy normalization. As such, we opine that USD will remain subdued next week though we do not rule out room for some rebounds on excessive losses. There is a clear rejection by 96.21 and we set sights on extended downsides next week to test 94.68 – 94.74. Losing this level opens a drop to 93.87. Indicative Yields Fixed Income • Focus this week was seen shifting towards key policy meetings held with BOJ and FOMC influencing market sentiments. BOJ announced that it will move away from a rigid target in terms of expanding monetary supply, whilst seeking to control bond yields across the maturity spectrum for Japanese government bonds. Meanwhile the Fed as widely expected maintain its key policy rate unchanged, whilst echoing that the case for rate increase has strengthened, odds for a December hike seen climbing to 61%. Post FOMC meeting, bond yields seen regaining some support, with bond yields consolidating lower for most Emerging Asian Market sovereign bonds. For now a tactical trading window still exists ahead of increased odds for a December Fed hike. 10-year yields seen ending a tad tighter to close at 1.62%. • Please see important disclosure at the end of the report 1 Fixed Income & Economic Research On the local front, MYR govvies saw thinner traded volume before regaining traction Thursday onwards post FOMC. 10-year yields for both benchmark MGS and GII seen traded 4 bps tighter to close at 3.54% and 3.59% level respectively as of Thursday’s level. Investors will be anticipating upcoming details of 20-year GII reopening which we are penciling in a tender size of RM2.5b.
2. Weekly Market Highlights Contents 2 Macroeconomics Page 3 Forex Page 4 Trading Idea Page 5 FX Technicals Page 6 Fixed Income Page 7 Economic Calendar Page 8 Fixed Income & Economic Research
3. Weekly Market Highlights Review Macroeconomics • Central banks’ policy decisions took center stage this week, all of which hint at limited scope for policy maneouver. The Fed left rates unchanged at 0.25-0.50% as expected, with a 7-3 vote. While policy makers continued to signal that a rate hike remains on the table this year amid more upbeat assessment on economic conditions and roughly balanced economic risks, overall tone was less hawkish. The latest dot plot projection suggests policy makers expect only one rate hike this year (vs two previously) and the pace of rate hike in subsequent years was being dialed back. The Fed median interest rates for 2017 and 2018 was lowered by 50bps each to 1.125% and 1.875% respectively. While this week’s FOMC meeting suggests a rate hike remains on the cards, its normalization path will be more gradual than previously anticipated. • BOJ’s policy tweak from monetary base expansion to yield-curve and interest rate targeting was the next in focus. Instead of cutting benchmark interest rate or raising the annual increase in monetary base, BOJ seeks to influence the yield curve by advocating purchase of JGBs to keep 10year bond yields at the current level of close to zero percent, in effort to reanchor inflation expectatins. • Prevailing low price environment was also among the reasons cited by RBA in maintaining an easing bias, besides an appreciating Aussie, its minutes showed. RBA refrained from cutting rates at its September meeting after two cuts in May and August, citing that growth was in line with expectations. Separately, RBNZ and BSP paused whilst BI cut again. • Back home, August CPI quickened for the first time in six months, bouncing off more than expected from the 16-month low of 1.1% YOY in July to 1.5% YOY in August, as a result of higher non-food prices. Pickup in services inflation offered tentative signs inflation may be gaining steam again. This prompted us to revise up our full year CPI forecast from 1.7% to 2.0%, tracking the lower end of official forecast of 2-3%. That said, the overall subdued inflationary outlook shall allow BNM to maintain an easing bias should growth disappoint. 6-month Macro Outlook US EU UK Japan Australia China Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Singapore Economy Inflation Interest Rate Currency ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↓ ↔ ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ The Week Ahead… 3 Fixed Income & Economic Research • After this week’s data drought, a barrge of first-tier data are scheduled for release next week. In the US, the third reading of 2Q GDP is on the deck, besides personal income/ spending reports, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, home sales and few regional Fed manufacturing gauges. Although these dataflow will add noises to Fed rate hike expectations as usual, we believe none of these will change the underlying fundamentals of the US economy. • There will also be a stream of market-moving data from the Eurozone and the UK. CPI, jobless rate, economic and consumer confidence from the EU, and 2Q GDP, mortgage approvals, BBA home loans and consumer confidence from the latter. • Back in Asia, broad spectrum of consumer and housing indicators shall shade more lights on the ailing Japanese economy, which remains a challenge for policy makers in view of its structural issues and external vulnerabilities. Economic calendar is light in China, with Caixin PMI manufacturing topping investor’s radar to gauge the extent of the slowdown in the Chinese economy. Neighbouring Hong Kong will report exports and retail sales while Singapore will release industrial production report. Back home, trade performance for the month of August is due and we expect continued contraction in exports amid sluggish global demand and soft commodity prices.
4. Weekly Market Highlights Review and Outlook Forex • MYR: MYR strengthened 0.73% WOW to 4.1075 against USD and advanced against 6 G10s, rebounding from sharp losses in the early week with support from improving MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW) -1.93 -1.04 EUR -0.73 HKD -0.58 MYR Appreciated USD Depreciated USD -0.69 to reinstate the bullish bias that was lost, which if it does, poses a threat to 4.1757. CHF • USD: USD fell against 5 G10s after tumbling post-FOMC decision to unwind early -0.20 SGD gains. The Dollar Index however, held on to gains to close 0.16% WOW higher at -0.41 -1.00 95.44, supported by sharp losses in EUR and GBP in the early week. Despite clearer signal that a Fed rate hike is on the horizon, the overall interepretation of FOMC’s decision is that policy tightening will be less aggressive than previously expected. This highlights some uncertainty on whether the US economy could withstand consecutive 0.60 0.97 AUD -2.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 rate hikes, which raises the risk of potential risks to the upside in policy normalization. As such, we opine that USD will remain subdued next week though we do not rule out Source: Bloomberg room for some rebounds on excessive losses. There is a clear rejection by 96.21 and we set sights on extended downsides next week to test 94.68 – 94.74. Losing this USD vs the G10s (% WOW) level opens a drop to 93.87. GBP -1.22 -0.78 SEK -0.43 USD Depreciated DKK -0.32 -0.04 NZD EUR USD Appreciated 0.90 1.1118 to keep a slight bullish bias intact. Reclaiming 1.12 will help EURUSD to firmer ground around 1.1265. 1.21 1.33 JPY AUD -1.00 • GBP: GBP plunged 1.22% WOW to 1.3078 against USD and fell against all G10s 1.70 0.00 1.00 2.00 Source: Bloomberg USD vs Asian Curencies (% WOW) • JPY: JPY advanced against 8 G10s and strengthened 0.6% WOW to 100.76 against 0.04 SGD greenback. We are bearish on JPY against USD; eventhough markets still discredit BOJ’s latest policy measure, judging by JPY’s extended strength, the fact is that the central bank remains firmly on track to aggressively expand its monetary base, which is currency-depreciating in nature. We therefore maintain that 100 level remains a very strong support to beat; even if this level is breached on intraday basis, we set sights 0.53 USD Appreciated INR 0.54 IDR 0.65 on immediate bounce that would lead USDJPY higher to circa 103.13. 0.73 MYR THB 0.76 • AUD: AUD rallied to the top of the G10 list and strengthened 1.7% WOW to 0.7643 0.88 TWD 1.47 KRW -0.50 USD, helped by risk aversion in the early week and later on by sell-off in the USD Depreciated 0.15 CNY 0.00 0.50 amid weakness after BOE signaled potential rate cut going forward. Nonetheless, we are bullish on GBP in anticipation of a soft USD next week. UK data is unlikely to inspire further upsides save for UK final 2Q GDP. Given existing policy drags, we reckon that GBPUSD may not be able to make much headways even after breaking above 1.31. We anticipate GBPUSD to remain supported by 1.2934 and set sights on recapturing 1.3155, above which the next level higher at 1.3347 will be exposed. PHP HKD declines in early week due to risk aversion in the markets ahead of FOMC meeting. In line with our expectation of a subdued USD, we are slightly bullish on EUR but caution There is unlikely any strong catalysts from macro factors given a lack of major data, thus EUR performance will again be driven by USD. EURUSD managed to hold above 0.32 CHF CAD -2.00 • EUR: EUR dipped 0.32% WOW to 1.1208 and weakened against 6 G10s, owing to that both fundamental and technical considerations suggest gains will be modest. NOK -0.31 anticipation of a subdued USD, coupled with extended recovery in oil and risk taking activities. Upsides are likely to be moderate as there is likely some retracement from recent shap gains. Technically, USDMYR was rejected by 4.1550 from recent attempt to push higher and is likely to head lower. The next level lower is likely to test 4.1042 before which there is scope to drop to 4.0708. The pair needs to break above 4.1550 CNY JPY -3.00 risk appetite and firmer oil prices. We are slightly bullish on MYR next week in GBP 1.00 1.50 2.00 Source: Bloomberg against USD, lifted by a reversal in markets to turn risk-off. We are neutral on AUD against USD next week; we opine that though gains are likely in the early week given current recovery in risk appetite, technical viewpoint suggests the sooner AUDUSD tests 0.7692 the higher the risk of a downside rejection. If this scenario proves true, AUDUSD is expected to shed most, if not all, of its accumulated gains to stick closer to 0.7588 – 0.7600 region. A clear break of 0.7692 opens up the next move to 0.7758. • SGD: SGD strengthened 0.53% WOW to 1.3562 against USD and advanced against 6 G10s on firmer risk appetite in the markets. We are also neutral on SGD against USD; similar to our view on AUDUSD, USDSGD is definitely taking some heat from firmer risk appetite but technical viewpoint suggests that declines are likely to bounce off a firm support at 1.3523, thereby potentially reversing accumulated losses. A clear downside break of 1.3523 will signal a detrimental outlook for USDSGD, with losses up to 1.3458. 4 Fixed Income & Economic Research
5. Weekly Market Highlights Technical Analysis : Currency Current price 14-day RSI Support - Resistance EURUSD 1.1201 49.94 1.1122 GBPUSD 1.3063 44.26 USDJPY 101.16 44.42 USDCNY 6.6699 USDSGD AUDUSD Moving Averages Call 30 Days 100 Days 200 Days 1.1278 1.1227 1.1191 1.1153 Neutral 1.2928 1.3445 1.3161 1.3615 1.3996 Positive 100.48 104.01 101.68 104.36 109.24 Positive 51.88 6.6594 6.6874 6.6623 6.6243 6.5669 Positive 1.3584 51.77 1.3475 1.3702 1.3553 1.3561 1.3726 Neutral 0.7637 56.39 0.7439 0.7695 0.7591 0.7485 0.7411 Positive NZDUSD 0.7281 49.24 0.7195 0.7426 0.7297 0.7105 0.6915 Positive USDMYR 4.1190 59.20 4.0060 4.1620 4.0605 4.0522 4.1000 Negative EURMYR 4.6140 57.28 4.5055 4.6757 4.5707 4.5414 4.5623 Negative GBPMYR 5.3815 49.19 5.3027 5.5142 5.3611 5.5280 5.7323 Neutral JPYMYR 4.0719 57.71 3.8906 4.1248 4.0032 3.8903 3.7547 Negative CHFMYR 4.2467 60.69 4.1138 4.2817 4.1880 4.1579 4.1733 Negative SGDMYR 3.0323 60.12 2.9717 3.0562 3.0028 2.9910 2.9805 Negative AUDMYR 3.1457 69.08 3.0479 3.1574 3.0923 3.0373 3.0308 Neutral NZDMYR 2.9993 54.74 2.9356 3.0609 2.9735 2.8827 2.8284 Neutral Trader’s Comment: So the 2 major events of BOJ and FOMC are behind us now with the USD Index being whipsawed around both pre and post both events. It ended under pressure in the aftermath of the FOMC, albeit by a smaller margin led by USDJPY’s charge to low 100.00 levels before settling around 100.80 levels at time of writing. Profit taking gave USD a slight bid towards the end of the week and would likely remain so throughout the trading day in absence of economic data. Given the Fed’s decision, December seems more likely now for a hike with 60% chance being priced in. Trader feels that USD in general would be trading within recent ranges although with a slight offered tone whilst we gear up for the next event. This should bode fairly well for commodity and bond currencies as a rush of sidelined money would be put to work to eke out what little gains left before a US rate hike. Locally, USDMYR hit multi week highs of 4.1600 post BOJ before settling around 4.1150 post FOMC. Next major event that would influence would be Singapore’s MPC whose dates have not been announced but would most likely be within the 2nd week of October. Broader range now sits comfortably around 4.07-4.13 with flows to determine the intraday movements. Trader do notes that short term BNM bills maturities would most probably keep the pair supported on dips. 5 Fixed Income & Economic Research
6. Weekly Market Highlights FX Technical Charts USDMYR EURMYR Resistance : 4.6757 Resistance: 4.1620 Support: 4.0060 Source: Bloomberg Support: 4.4904 Source: Bloomberg GBPMYR JPYMYR Resistance: 4.1248 Support: 3.8906 Resistance: 5.5142 Support: 5.3027 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg AUDMYR SGDMYR Resistance: 3.1575 Resistance: 3.0562 Support: 3.0479 Support: 2.9590 Source: Bloomberg 6 Source: Bloomberg Fixed Income & Economic Research
7. Weekly Market Highlights Review & Outlook Fixed Income % Benchmark MGS Yields • Focus this week was seen shifting towards key policy meetings held with BOJ and FOMC influencing market sentiments. BOJ announced that it will move away from a rigid target in terms of expanding monetary supply, whilst seeking to control bond yields across the maturity spectrum for Japanese government bonds. The BOJ added that its target for expanding the monetary base through asset purchases, previously set at 80 trillion yen ($780 billion) annually, may now fluctuate in the short term to enable policy makers to control bond yields. Meanwhile the Fed as widely expected maintain its key policy rate unchanged, whilst echoing that the case for rate increase has strengthened, odds for a December hike seen climbing to 61%. Post FOMC meeting, bond yields seen regaining some support, with bond yields consolidating lower for most Emerging Asian Market sovereign bonds. For now a tactical trading window still exists ahead of increased odds for a December Fed hike. 10-year yields seen ending a tad tighter to close at 1.62%. • On the local front, MYR govvies saw thinner traded volume before regaining traction Thursday onwards post FOMC. 10-year yields for both benchmark MGS and GII seen traded 4 bps tighter to close at 3.54% and 3.59% level respectively as of Thursday’s level. Rebound in MYR performance provided added catalyst for MYR bonds. CPI for August meanwhile seen edging a tad higher to print 1.5% versus a prior level of 1.1%, but still remains benign. Investors will be anticipating upcoming details of 20-year GII reopening which we are penciling in a tender size of RM2.5b. • Moving on to the corporate bonds space, trading activities seen boosted higher on Thursday tracking the improved traction for local govvies. As of Thursday close, daily traded amounts climbed to RM1b with balanced mixed of GG/AAA and AA credits. In the GG segment, a slew of DanaInfra papers seen transacted with longerdated ’45 seen dealt at 4.86%. Meanwhile PTPTN ’41 saw level dealt at 4.78% with RM40m traded. In the AAA space, Cagamas ‘2020-2023 seen traded with combined amount of RM160m. Moving down the credit curve we saw a slew of UEM Sunrise papers transacted with ‘6/21 and ‘4/22 done at 4.50% and 4.53% respectively. 3Y MGS 5Y MGS 10Y MGS 5.2 4.7 4.2 3.7 3.2 2.7 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 2.2 bps MGS Yield Spread 3/10Y 200 3/5Y 150 100 50 Jul-16 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-10 % Jan-11 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jan-09 Jul-08 -50 Jan-08 0 MYR IRS Curve 6.0 3Y IRS 5.5 5Y IRS 5.0 7Y IRS 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Jul-16 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jan-14 Jul-13 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jan-08 2.0 Rating Actions Issuer PDS Description Al Dzahab Assets Berhad RM120.0 million Class A Sukuk and RM35.0 million Class B Sukuk Guaranteed IMTN Programme of up to RM200 million (2014/2022) Puncak Wangi Sdn Bhd Source: RAM; MARC 7 Fixed Income & Economic Research Rating/Outlook Action AAA/ Stable AA3 / Stable AAA (FG) / Stable Assigned Reaffirmed
8. Weekly Market Highlights Economic Calendar Release Date Date Country 09 /30 Malaysia 10/07 Event US 09/27 09/30 Revised Sep -- 47.4 -- Aug -- -5.30% --- 30-Sep -- $97.7b New Home Sales MoM Aug -8.80% 12.40% -- Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Sep -3.0 -6.2 -- Jul 5.00% 5.13% -- Sep P 51 51 -- Consumer Confidence Index Sep 98.5 101.1 -- Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Sep -2 -11 -- MBA Mortgage Applications 23-Sep -- -7.30% -- Durable Goods Orders Aug P -1.00% 4.40% -- Wholesale Inventories MoM Aug P 0.00% 0.00% -- GDP Annualized QoQ 2Q T 1.30% 1.10% -- Initial Jobless Claims -- Markit US Services PMI 09/29 Prior Nikkei Malaysia PMI S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 09/28 Survey Exports YoY Foreign Reserves 09/26 Reporting Period 24-Sep -- 252k Pending Home Sales MoM Aug -0.10% 1.30% -- Personal Income Aug 0.20% 0.40% -- Personal Spending Aug 0.20% 0.30% -- Chicago Purchasing Manager Sep 53.0 51.5 -- U. of Mich. Sentiment Sep F 90.1 89.8 -- 10/03 Markit US Manufacturing PMI Sep F -- -- -- ISM Manufacturing Sep 51.0 49.4 -- 10/04 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Oct -- 46.7 -- 10/05 MBA Mortgage Applications -- 30-Sep -- -- ADP Employment Change Sep -- 177k -- Trade Balance Aug -$43.0b -$39.5b -- Markit US Services PMI ISM Non-Manf. Composite Factory Orders Sep F -- -- -- Sep 53.0 51.4 -- Aug -- 1.90% -- Durable Goods Orders Aug F -- -- -- 10/06 Initial Jobless Claims 1-Oct -- -- -- 10/07 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Sep 173k 151k -- Unemployment Rate Sep 4.90% 4.90% -- 09/26 09/28-10/03 09/29 09/30 10/03 UK Wholesale Inventories MoM Aug F -- -- -- Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Aug -- -0.40% -- BBA Loans for House Purchase Aug 36500 37662 -- Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Sep 5.00% 5.60% -- Net Consumer Credit Aug 1.4b 1.2b -- Mortgage Approvals Aug 59.8k 60.9k -- GfK Consumer Confidence Sep -4 -7 -- GDP QoQ 2Q F 0.60% 0.60% -- Current Account Balance 2Q -31.0b -32.6b -- Index of Services 3M/3M Jul -- 0.50% -- Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Sep -- 53.3 -- 10/05 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Sep -- 52.9 -- 10/07 Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year Sep -- 6.90% -- Industrial Production MoM Aug -- 0.10% -- Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Aug -- -£11764 --- NIESR GDP Estimate 09/29 Euro zone Economic Confidence Business Climate Indicator Consumer Confidence 09/30 0.30% 103.5 -- Sep 0.03 0.02 --- Sep F -- -8.2 Aug 10.0% 10.10% -- CPI Estimate YoY Sep 0.30% 0.20% -- Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 10/04 PPI YoY 10/05 Markit Eurozone Services PMI Retail Sales MoM 8 -103.5 Unemployment Rate 10/03 10/06 Sep Sep ECB account of the monetary policy meeting Fixed Income & Economic Research Sep F -- -- -- Aug -- -2.80% -- Sep F -- -- -- Aug -- 1.10% --
9. Weekly Market Highlights 09 /26 Japan 09/29 09/30 Leading Index CI Jul F -- 100 -- Coincident Index Jul F -- 112.8 -- Retail Trade YoY Aug -1.70% -0.20% -- Retail Sales MoM Aug -1.10% 1.40% 1.50% Jobless Rate Aug 3.00% 3.00% -- Overall Household Spending YoY Aug -2.30% -0.50% -- Natl CPI YoY Aug -0.50% -0.40% -- Aug P 0.50% -0.40% -- Housing Starts YoY Aug 7.20% 8.90% -- Tankan Large Mfg Outlook 3Q 6 6 -- 3Q 18 17 -- Sep F -- 50.3 -- Industrial Production MoM 10/03 Tankan Large Non-Mfg Outlook Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg 10/04 Consumer Confidence Index Sep -- 42 -- 10/05 Nikkei Japan PMI Services Sep -- 49.6 -- 10/07 09/27 China Leading Index CI Aug P -- -- -- Coincident Index Aug P -- -- -11.00% Industrial Profits YoY Aug -- -- 09/30 Caixin China PMI Mfg Sep 50.1 50.0 -- 10/01 Manufacturing PMI Sep 50.4 50.4 -- Non-manufacturing PMI 09/27 Hong Kong Exports YoY Sep -- 53.5 -- Aug -- -5.10% -- 09/30 Retail Sales Value YoY Aug -- -7.70% -- 10/05 Nikkei Hong Kong PMI Sep -- 49 -- 09/26 Singapore Industrial Production YoY Aug 1.00% -3.60% -- 10/03 Purchasing Managers Index Sep -- 49.8 -- Nikkei Singapore PMI Sep -- 52.3 -- HIA New Home Sales MoM Aug -- -9.70% -- AiG Perf of Mfg Index Sep -- 46.9 -- 10/05 09/30 Australia 10/03 10/04 10/05 Building Approvals MoM Aug -- 11.30% -- RBA Cash Rate Target 4-Oct 1.50% 1.50% -- AiG Perf of Services Index Sep -- 45 -- Retail Sales MoM Aug -- 0.00% -- 10/06 Trade Balance Aug -- -2410m -- 10/07 AiG Perf of Construction Index Sep -- 46.6 -- Trade Balance Aug -735m -433m -- Building Permits MoM Aug -- -10.50% -- ANZ Activity Outlook Sep -- 33.7 -- ANZ Business Confidence Sep -- 15.5 -- 09/26 09/30 New Zealand Source: Bloomberg 9 Fixed Income & Economic Research
10. Weekly Market Highlights Hong Leong Bank Berhad Fixed Income & Economic Research, Global Markets Level 6, Wisma Hong Leong 18, Jalan Perak 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel: 603-2773 0469 Fax: 603-2164 9305 Email: HLMarkets@hlbb.hongleong.com.my DISCLAIMER This report is for information purposes only and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. The information contained herein does not constitute the provision of investment advice and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any of the financial instruments mentioned in this report and will not form the basis or a part of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this publication is derived from data obtained from sources believed by Hong Leong Bank Berhad (“HLBB”) to be reliable and in good faith, but no warranties or guarantees, representations are made by HLBB with regard to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the data. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the authors of the report and do not necessarily represent the opinion of HLBB or any of the companies within the Hong Leong Bank Group (“HLB Group”). The opinions reflected herein may change without notice and the opinions do not necessarily correspond to the opinions of HLBB. HLBB does not have an obligation to amend, modify or update this report or to otherwise notify a reader or recipient thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. HLB Group, their directors, employees and representatives do not have any responsibility or liability to any person or recipient (whether by reason of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) arising from any statement, opinion or information, expressed or implied, arising out of, contained in or derived from or omission from the reports or matter. HLBB may, to the extent permitted by law, buy, sell or hold significantly long or short positions; act as investment and/or commercial bankers; be represented on the board of the issuers; and/or engage in ‘market making’ of securities mentioned herein. The past performance of financial instruments is not indicative of future results. Whilst every effort is made to ensure that statements of facts made in this report are accurate, all estimates, projections, forecasts, expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments contained in this report are based on assumptions considered to be reasonable as of the date of the document in which they are contained and must not be construed as a representation that the matters referred to therein will occur. Any projections or forecasts mentioned in this report may not be achieved due to multiple risk factors including without limitation market volatility, sector volatility, corporate actions, the unavailability of complete and accurate information. No assurance can be given that any opinion described herein would yield favorable investment results. Recipients who are not market professional or institutional investor customer of HLBB should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on the recommendations in this report. HLBB may provide hyperlinks to websites of entities mentioned in this report, however the inclusion of a link does not imply that HLBB endorses, recommends or approves any material on the linked page or accessible from it. Such linked websites are accessed entirely at your own risk. HLBB does not accept responsibility whatsoever for any such material, nor for consequences of its use. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for the use of the addressees only and may not be redistributed, reproduced or passed on to any other person or published, in part or in whole, for any purpose, without the prior, written consent of HLBB. The manner of distributing this report may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries. Persons into whose possession this report may come are required to inform themselves about and to observe such restrictions. By accepting this report, a recipient hereof agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations. 10 Fixed Income & Economic Research