GCC ‐ Equity Market Monitor - 10 July

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g July 10, 2017 7/10/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% ‐15.0% ‐20.0% Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return MTD Return QTD Return O Oman S di Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) UAE (ADX) K Kuwait ‐ i PI 0.3% ‐11.2% 0.3% 0.3% ‐0.5% ‐0.6% 3.5% ‐3.5% ‐3.5% 0.0% ‐3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% ‐3.0% 0.3% ‐0.3% ‐0.3% 0.7% 17.0% 0.6% ‐0.6% ‐0.6% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Kuwait  Kuwait ‐ Wtd 0.5% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% Q Qatar B h i Bahrain ‐0.2% ‐14.7% 1.4% ‐1.4% ‐1.4% ‐0.1% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 1.099 million (c. US$ 2.9 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Bank Nizwa Banking 207,733 18.9% BUY SELL NET OMANIS 951,440 951,440  1,037,480 1,037,480  (86,040) Phoenix Power Phoenix Power Utility 125 630 125,630 11 4% 11.4% GCC 125,588  52,933  72,655  Oman Fisheries Industry 122,322 11.1% Arabs 11,600  7,904  3,696  National Bank Of Oman Banking 105,125 9.6% OTHERS 10,840  1,151  9,689  Omantel Services 88,203 8.0% MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 5,473,962  10.4 1.0 6.2% MSM 30 5,134.88 5,119.52 0.30% 0.32% ‐11.20% Financial 3,150,780  8.0 0.9 5.2% Financial 7,664.18 7,640.04 0.32% ‐0.17% ‐0.10% Industrial 918,870  12.4 1.3 5.7% Industrial 7,010.73 7,045.43 ‐0.49% ‐1.50% ‐5.35% Services 2,212,901  39.8 1.5 8.1% Services 2,595.04 2,601.54 ‐0.25% ‐0.20% ‐15.16% MSM Shariah 2,387,060  12.9 1.5 7.0% 764.35 763.80 0.07% 0.33% ‐12.04% MSM Shariah 7/10/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   % Chg MENA  Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD %QTD %YTD   ‐0.4 0.7 2.0 2.4 2.6 ‐0.4 8.1 0.6 11.9 5.5 5.4 28.1 ‐2.7 ‐2.2 ‐1.2 ‐1.5 13,342.1 ‐0.2 ‐0.4 2,183.5 0.3 0.7 6,141.3 0.1 2.0 25,815.6 1.7 2.4 558.8 ‐0.3 2.6 100,084.4 ‐0.5 ‐0.4 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) 120.3 ‐0.3 ‐2.7 97.9 ‐0.3 ‐2.2 S&P GCC LMC S&P GCC (USD) S&P GCC (40 Index)‐ Price return S&P GCC (40 Index)‐ Total return MSCI GCC MSCI GCC MSCI Frontier  MSCI Frontier ex GCC MSCI Arabian Index 970.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 ‐3.3 1,578.5 472 1 472.1 563.3 879.0 516.0 0.0 ‐0.4 04 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.4 0.2 ‐2.9 29 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐2.6 0.2 ‐2.9 29 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐2.6 0.4 ‐1.0 10 12.8 16.7 ‐0.6 Index  S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,425.2 21,414.3 6,153.1 62,322.4 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX , 7,350.9 5,145.2 12,388.7 Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia 20,058.5 25,608.4 31 570 8 31,570.8 3,211.1 2,385.2 995.2 Closing  % Chg %MTD %QTD Index %YTD  0.2 ‐0.2 ‐0.2 9.2 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,867.3 ‐0.4 ‐0.4 ‐0.4 10.4 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,664.6 ‐0.2 0.1 0.1 13.2 MSCI EM Index 1,002.5 ‐0.4 ‐0.8 ‐0.8 16.3 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 588 8 588.8 00 0.0 00 0.0 00 0.0 68 6.8 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 297.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 ‐0.2 ‐5.8 Commodity (Bloomberg)  82.4 0.8 ‐0.2 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %YTD   0.1 0.3 0.2 ‐0.9 0.1 0.3 0.2 ‐0.9 8.3 8.4 14.3 3.5 0.2 ‐0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.9 5.8 7.9 0.6 1.1 07 0.7 ‐0.2 0.2 ‐1.6 0.1 ‐0.6 21 2.1 0.6 ‐0.3 ‐0.6 0.1 ‐0.6 21 2.1 0.6 ‐0.3 ‐0.6 4.9 16.4 18 6 18.6 3.5 17.7 ‐13.6 %QTD %YTD %YTD  0.4 ‐0.2 0.6 ‐1.6 ‐1.0 0.1 ‐0.6 ‐0.3 ‐0.1 0.1 ‐1.0 ‐0.4 ‐2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 2.6 0.0 ‐6.1 8.4 4.3 2.4 4.5 8.1 5.7 2.1 ‐0.7 5.3 5.6 0.5 ‐2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 ‐0.1 Global Currencies 1,913.2 Commodity  %QTD Asia Pacific Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD 0.6 0.4 1.0 ‐0.2 %MTD Europe Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing   % Chg Americas  4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 96.014 1.140 1.289 114.170 1.290 8.424 0.964 6.801 7.813 64.498 0.761 13400.000 3.618 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.303 3.641 0.377 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 ‐0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.4 ‐0.2 0.6 ‐1.6 ‐1.0 0.1 ‐0.6 ‐0.3 ‐0.1 0.1 ‐1.0 ‐0.4 ‐2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 2.6 0.0
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD  Index  Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  Benzene FOB Korea Spot 805.0 740.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 745.0 ‐2.0 0.0 ‐10.8 Benzene CFR India Spot 750.0 ‐2.0 0.0 ‐10.7 0.6 0.6 ‐13.0 NYMEX Crude 44.6 0.9 ‐3.1 ‐3.1 ‐21.6 ICE Brent Crude 47.1 0.9 ‐3.4 ‐3.4 ‐19.9 Crude Oil, Oman  45.5 ‐3.2 ‐2.2 ‐2.2 ‐16.2 NYMEX Natural Gas  2.9 1.2 ‐4.5 ‐4.5 ‐19.0 150.4 0.4 ‐0.7 ‐0.7 ‐17.8 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,211.3 ‐0.2 ‐2.4 ‐2.4 5.1 Silver Spot 15.5 ‐0.7 ‐6.8 ‐6.8 ‐2.6 Platinum Spot  905.5 ‐0.4 ‐2.4 ‐2.4 0.2 Palladium Spot  836.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 22.0 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 918 3 1,918.3 ‐0.8 08 02 0.2 02 0.2 12 6 12.6 LME Copper‐Spot 5,804.0 ‐0.3 ‐2.1 ‐2.1 5.1 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,791.0 0.3 1.4 1.4 9.1 LME Lead‐Spot 2,278.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 14.0 LME Nickel‐Spot 8 879 8 8,879.8 ‐1.7 17 ‐5.0 50 ‐5.0 50 ‐10.9 10 9 Steel  US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  625.0 0.0 ‐2.3 ‐2.3 3.3 Agriculture  C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  398 8 398.8 16 1.6 47 4.7 47 4.7 74 7.4 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  547.5 2.3 4.1 4.1 22.3 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  1,034.5 1.9 8.4 8.4 4.6 ‐8 8 ‐8.8 ‐8 8 ‐8.8 ‐14 5 ‐14.5 Shipping  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  822 0 822.0 ‐0 8 ‐0.8 %MTD %QTD %YTD 0.0 0.0 ‐5.3 ‐10.8 Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Closing ‐1.2 ‐2.0 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  403.1 Naphtha C&F Japan  404.4 ‐2.3 ‐2.3 ‐18.6 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 400.5 ‐4.3 ‐4.3 ‐17.6 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  43.7 ‐2.5 ‐2.5 ‐18.7 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  1,045.0 ‐5.9 0.0 13.0 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 885.0 ‐9.7 0.0 ‐19.9 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 880.0 ‐9.7 0.0 ‐20.0 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot 820 0 820.0 ‐4.7 47 00 0.0 ‐5.2 52 5.2 Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 915.0 ‐4.2 0.0 2EH CFR South East Asia 935.0 ‐4.1 0.0 5.1 DOP CFR Far East Asia 945.0 ‐4.1 0.0 ‐4.1 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  8,990.0 0.1 0.1 ‐7.9 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 1,070.0 ‐1.8 0.0 ‐8.6 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,080.0 ‐2.7 0.0 ‐7.7 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,110.0 ‐1.8 0.0 ‐1.8 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  1,665.0 0.3 0.3 7.4 UREA Cornbelt 220.0 4.8 4.8 ‐20.0 UREA Middle East 190.0 ‐1.0 ‐1.0 ‐22.5 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 325 0 325.0 ‐2.7 27 ‐2.7 27 ‐5.9 59 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 7/10/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Ibri power project aims to deliver 940MW in April 2018 (Source: Times of Oman)  A Mitsui & Co Ltd‐led consortium has achieved marked progress in building two major natural gas‐fired power projects Sohar 3 and Ibri in Oman, which will have a combined capacity of 3,219 megawatt (MW).  After completing the civil work at both project sites, the turnkey EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) contractor, Shandong Electric Power Construction Corporation III (SEPCO III), hoisted two gas turbines at Ibri last month.  The Ibri Independent Power Project (IPP) will deliver early power of 940 MW from April 2018, with the full 1,509 MW generation expected from April 2019, according to a seven‐year outlook report released by Oman Power and Water Procurement Company (OPWP).  p y of 1,710 , MW from Januaryy 2019. The coolingg tower work is also p progressing g g at the Likewise,, Sohar 3 is scheduled to deliver full capacity Sohar project, said SEPCO 111 last month.  The Mitsui‐led consortium has tight deadlines to complete these two projects as OPWP is trying to generate power within two years.  In fact, peak demand for electricity is projected to increase at an annual average of 6 per cent per year, from 5,920 MW in 2016 to 8,960 MW in 2023. Peak demand is expected to grow at a lower rate than energy demand due to the introduction of Cost‐Reflective Tariffs (CRT) for large commercial, government, and industrial consumers in 2017.  The CRT is time‐differentiated, where the tariff is more representative of the actual cost of supply at different periods during the year, noting higher costs during peak and summer periods, and lower costs during off‐peak and winter periods. Some large customers are expected to shift their demand in response to the new tariff. Oman Oil Marketing reports H1 2017 results (PAT‐ In line) (Source: MSM)  Total revenue for H1 2017 stood at RO 245.7 million as compared p to RO 199.5 million in the same p period last yyear, an increase of 23% YoY. For Q2, the revenue is at RO 126.8 million, an increase of 18.6% YoY and 6.7% YoY. This is above our estimates  H1 total expenses is at RO 243.2 million as against RO 195.4 million, an increase of 24% YoY. Net profit after tax for H1 is at RO 3.633 million as compared to RO 5.0 million in the same period last year, reporting a decline of 28% YoY.  For Q2, net profit after tax of the company is at RO 1.768 million, declining by 35% YoY and ‐5% QoQ. This is in line with our estimates. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Oman power subsidy to fall to RO 456 million in 2017 (Source: Oman Observer)  Reversing a longstanding trend in rising government grants to the sector, electricity subsidy is projected to ease to RO 456.3 million in 2017 versus an amount of RO 510.5 million disbursed last year, a 10.6% decline, according to details published by the sector regulator.  The fall is primarily attributed to an uptick in customer revenues following the introduction of Cost Reflective Tariffs (CRT) for large industrial, commercial and government consumers effective from January 1 this year.  According to the Authority for Electricity Regulation Oman (AER), subsidy payable to suppliers within the MIS (comprising Muscat Electricity Distribution Co, Majan Electricity and Mazoon Electricity) is estimated at RO 329.3 million in 2017, down from RO 389.9 million last year.  y ((DPS)) are estimated at RO 37.5 million in 2017,, down from RO 42.6 million a yyear earlier. The subsidyy needs of the Dhofar Power System Oman Chromite reports H1 2017 results (Source: MSM)  Total income for H1 2017 increased by 82.9% YoY to RO 1.031 million as compared to RO 564K in the same period last year.  Cost of sales for the period increased by 27% YoY to RO 458K, while the General and admin costs increased by 11% YoY to RO 199K. Net profit for H1 is at RO 274K as compared to loss of RO 43K in the same period last year. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source Bloomberg, Source: Bloomberg GBCM Research Market Outlook – Institutional support seen in frontline stocks, MSM support is at 5,500 levels… During the last trading week, we saw yet another day of mixed closing within the regional markets with Kuwait and Oman revealing outperformance trend. We saw weakness continuing in both Saudi and Qatari equities. Oman ended in green for the day led by support in certain index heavyweights, while the overall volumes remained dull. We anticipate the local and the GCC equities to open in green for the day amid positive global market cues and relative stability in oil prices. We may see institutional support coming in frontline stocks post sharp sell seen in the region. We also expect the focus shifting to corporate earnings and this would led to stock specific p activityy duringg the comingg sessions. MSM finds stronger g technical support pp around 5,100 , levels. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. GCC  News UAE completes key packages of $1.4 billion highway project (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi General Services Company (Musanada) said it has achieved a major milestone with the completion of two packages of Mafraq‐ Ghuwaifat Highway project that will be linking western region cities to the international borders with Saudi Arabia.  The project, being implemented by Musanada in collaboration with the Department of Municipal Affairs and Transport (DMAT), involves construction off 16 new upper interchanges h and d basic b improvements to the h existing interchanges. h ADX, DGCX partner on unified clearing house (Source: Trade Arabia)  The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) has signed an agreement with Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) and DMCC (Dubai Multi Commodities Centre) to create a collaboration on a unified clearing house in the UAE.  this collaboration aims to promote a stronger cooperation across a number of areas, including clearing and settlement of equities, commodities, currencies, OTC instruments and derivatives products, as well as support with the listing of respective products and securities. Dubai non‐oil foreign trade – Q1 2017 (Source: Reuters)  Dubai’s non‐oil foreign trade grew 2.7% in Q1 2017 to Dh327 billion from the year earlier period, according to Dubai Customs. In May, the IMF said it expects a rebound by the country’s non‐oil economy in 2017.  Non‐oil GDP is forecast to expand by 3.3% this year with the budget deficit shrinking to 4.5% cent of GDP. Dubai Financial Market expects two listings this year (Source: The National)  As per news sources quoting the executive vice‐president of DFM, the stock market had met with six or seven companies to discuss potential IPOs but many were hesitant due to current conditions.  Dubai group Emaar said in June it was planning an IPO of its real estate development business, which has sales of Dhs14.4bn in 2016. Dubai Financial Market (DFM) is reportedly expecting two listings this year as market confidence improves.  The DFM is also in talks with two Kuwaiti companies to list their shares in Dubai. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC  News Saudi Aramco’s Jazan project to start pilot ops by mid‐2018 (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Aramco’s Jazan project is expected to start pilot operations by mid‐2018, the company said in a statement. Last year, Aramco said the Jazan project, which has a production capacity of 400,000 barrels a day, was 55% completed.  Aramco reportedly signed an agreement with a foreign investor to build a Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) project in Jazan Economic City (JEC). Jabal Omar hires Foster + Partners to design Four Seasons hotel (Source: Argaam)  Jabal Omar Development Co. Co signed a memorandum of cooperation with London‐based London based architectural firm Foster + Partners to design the Jabal Omar Four Seasons Hotel and a residential tower near the Grand Mosque in Makkah.  No details were disclosed about the deal value. The new facility will be Jabal Omar’s first seven‐star hotel. Foster + Partners had earlier provided architectural designs for the Al‐Faisaliah tower and Samba Financial Group’s new head office in Riyadh Moody's changes ratings outlook of Qatari project (Source: Gulf Base)  Moody's has affirmed the A1 guaranteed senior secured debt ratings of Ras Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas Co.Ltd (II) (RasGas II) and Ras Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas Co.Ltd Co Ltd (3) (RasGas 3), 3) together RasGas II‐3. II‐3  Moody's has also affirmed the A1 senior secured debt rating and the A2 senior subordinated debt rating of Nakilat Inc. (Nakilat). The outlook on these issuers has been changed to negative, from stable. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 7/10/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11