GCC ‐ Equity Market Monitor - 4 July

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g July 4, 2017 7/4/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0 0% 0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% ‐15.0% ‐20.0% Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return QTD Return O Oman S di Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) UAE (ADX) K it PI Kuwait ‐ ‐0.6% 0.1% 1.2% ‐0.7% ‐0.7% Kuwait  ‐ Wtd ‐0.8% ‐12.0% ‐0.6% 3.9% 0.9% ‐3.0% 1.0% ‐2.9% ‐0.2% 14.2% ‐2.9% ‐0.6% 0.9% 1.0% ‐0.2% ‐2.9% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Q t Qatar B h i Bahrain 1.3% ‐0.3% 4.1% ‐0.9% ‐14.4% ‐1.0% 7.8% 0.5% ‐0.9% ‐1.0% 0.5%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 2.881 million (c. US$ 7.5 million) Figures In RO OMANIS GCC Arabs OTHERS Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Bank Muscat Banking 841,240 29.2% BUY SELL NET 1,723,145 1,723,145  1,245,063 1,245,063  478,081 478,081  Omantel Services 635 603 635,603 22 1% 22.1% 185,535  183,421  2,114  Ooredoo Services 571,119 19.8% 4,989  2,833  2,155  Oman Fisheries Industry 133,514 4.6% 967,253  1,449,603  (482,350) Bank Dhofar Banking 92,187 3.2% MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Value Leaders Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 5,822,546  12.1 1.1 6.4% MSM 30 5,088.50 5,116.83 ‐0.55% ‐0.58% ‐12.00% Financial 3,165,028  7.9 0.9 5.3% Financial 7,648.45 7,696.39 ‐0.62% ‐0.37% ‐0.31% Industrial 879,440  12.3 1.3 5.6% Industrial 7,138.51 7,138.79 0.00% 0.29% ‐3.63% Services 2,429,218  57.8 1.6 7.5% Services 2,591.12 2,596.46 ‐0.21% ‐0.35% ‐15.29% MSM Shariah 2,294,344  12.2 1.4 7.2% 760.31 764.15 ‐0.50% ‐0.20% ‐12.51% MSM Shariah 7/4/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   % Chg MENA  Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD %QTD %YTD   0.3 0.2 0.9 ‐0.2 1.0 0.1 8.8 0.0 10.7 2.8 3.7 28.6 0.2 0.3 1.7 0.9 13,431.1 ‐0.4 0.3 2,171.1 0.3 0.2 6,077.3 0.9 0.9 25,152.1 ‐0.2 ‐0.2 549.8 ‐0.2 1.0 100,522.3 0.1 0.1 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) 123.8 0.2 0.2 100.3 0.2 0.3 S&P GCC LMC S&P GCC (USD) S&P GCC (40 Index)‐ Price return S&P GCC (40 Index)‐ Total return MSCI GCC MSCI GCC MSCI Frontier  MSCI Frontier ex GCC MSCI Arabian Index 973.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 ‐3.0 1,582.7 488 0 488.0 566.8 884.2 531.6 0.4 03 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 03 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 03 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 24 2.4 13.5 17.3 2.4 Index  S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,429.0 21,479.3 6,110.1 63,279.6 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX , 7,377.1 5,195.7 12,475.3 Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia 20,084.6 25,497.9 31 289 0 31,289.0 3,180.0 2,386.0 1,009.4 Closing  % Chg %MTD %QTD Index %YTD  0.2 0.2 0.2 9.7 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,879.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 11.2 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,676.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 13.9 MSCI EM Index 1,014.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 17.6 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 588 8 588.8 00 0.0 00 0.0 00 0.0 68 6.8 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 297.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.6 ‐5.0 Commodity (Bloomberg)  83.1 0.6 0.6 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %YTD   0.2 0.6 ‐0.5 0.6 0.2 0.6 ‐0.5 0.6 8.5 8.7 13.5 5.1 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.5 1.2 3.3 6.9 8.7 0.1 ‐1.1 02 0.2 ‐0.5 ‐0.4 0.8 0.3 ‐1.0 12 1.2 ‐0.4 ‐0.2 0.8 0.3 ‐1.0 12 1.2 ‐0.4 ‐0.2 0.8 5.1 15.9 17 5 17.5 2.5 17.7 ‐12.4 %QTD %YTD %YTD  0.5 ‐0.5 ‐0.2 ‐0.6 ‐0.6 ‐0.6 ‐0.5 ‐0.2 0.0 ‐0.3 ‐0.8 ‐0.3 ‐1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐6.0 8.1 3.4 3.4 4.9 7.3 5.8 2.2 ‐0.7 4.8 5.9 0.7 ‐0.9 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 ‐2.5 0.0 Global Currencies 1,920.6 Commodity  %QTD Asia Pacific Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD 0.2 0.6 ‐0.5 0.6 %MTD Europe Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing   % Chg Americas  4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 96.120 1.137 1.300 113.110 1.295 8.485 0.963 6.797 7.809 64.806 0.763 13385.000 3.557 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.303 3.735 0.377 ‐0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 ‐0.4 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 ‐0.5 ‐0.2 ‐0.6 ‐0.6 ‐0.6 ‐0.5 ‐0.2 0.0 ‐0.3 ‐0.8 ‐0.3 ‐1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD  Index  Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  Benzene FOB Korea Spot 805.0 740.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 745.0 ‐2.0 0.0 ‐10.8 Benzene CFR India Spot 750.0 ‐2.0 0.0 ‐10.7 4.9 ‐9.3 NYMEX Crude 46.8 ‐0.5 1.7 1.7 ‐17.7 ICE Brent Crude 49.4 ‐0.6 1.3 1.3 ‐16.0 Crude Oil, Oman  48.6 1.7 4.5 4.5 ‐10.5 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.0 0.5 ‐2.3 ‐2.3 ‐17.1 152.8 ‐0.5 0.9 0.9 ‐16.5 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,223.2 0.3 ‐1.5 ‐1.5 6.2 Silver Spot 16.1 ‐0.1 ‐3.1 ‐3.1 1.2 Platinum Spot  908.7 0.3 ‐2.0 ‐2.0 0.6 Palladium Spot  855.3 1.5 2.2 2.2 24.8 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 921 0 1,921.0 04 0.4 04 0.4 04 0.4 12 7 12.7 LME Copper‐Spot 5,906.8 ‐0.3 ‐0.3 ‐0.3 6.9 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,802.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 9.5 LME Lead‐Spot 2,315.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 15.8 LME Nickel‐Spot 9 346 0 9,346.0 00 0.0 00 0.0 00 0.0 ‐6.2 62 Steel  US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  638.0 ‐0.3 ‐0.3 ‐0.3 5.5 Agriculture  C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  388 5 388.5 20 2.0 20 2.0 20 2.0 46 4.6 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  555.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 24.0 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  980.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 ‐0.9 ‐2 1 ‐2.1 ‐2 1 ‐2.1 ‐8 2 ‐8.2 Shipping  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  882 0 882.0 ‐2 1 ‐2.1 %MTD %QTD %YTD 0.0 0.0 ‐5.3 ‐10.8 Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Closing ‐1.2 ‐2.0 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  420.2 4.9 Naphtha C&F Japan  421.4 1.8 1.8 ‐15.1 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 417.5 ‐0.3 ‐0.3 ‐14.1 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  45.6 1.8 1.8 ‐15.1 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  1,045.0 ‐5.9 0.0 13.0 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 885.0 ‐9.7 0.0 ‐19.9 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 880.0 ‐9.7 0.0 ‐20.0 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot 820 0 820.0 ‐4.7 47 00 0.0 ‐5.2 52 5.2 Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 915.0 ‐4.2 0.0 2EH CFR South East Asia 935.0 ‐4.1 0.0 5.1 DOP CFR Far East Asia 945.0 ‐4.1 0.0 ‐4.1 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  8,860.0 ‐1.4 ‐1.4 ‐9.3 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 1,070.0 ‐1.8 0.0 ‐8.6 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,080.0 ‐2.7 0.0 ‐7.7 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,110.0 ‐1.8 0.0 ‐1.8 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  1,660.0 2.5 0.0 7.1 UREA Cornbelt 210.0 ‐6.7 0.0 ‐23.6 UREA Middle East 192.0 ‐8.6 0.0 ‐21.6 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 334 2 334.2 00 0.0 00 0.0 ‐3.2 32 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 7/4/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Fitch revises five Omani Banks Outlooks to Negative ; Affirms 6 IDRs (Source: Reuters)  Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on five Omani banks ‐ Bank Muscat (BM), HSBC Bank Oman (HBON), Ahli Bank SAOG (ABO), Bank Dhofar (BD) and Bank Sohar (BS) ‐ to Negative from Stable. The Outlook on National Bank of Oman (NBO) remains Stable.  Fitch has also affirmed the Long‐Term Issuer Default Rating (IDRs) of all six banks. These rating actions follow the revision of the Outlook on the Omani sovereign to Negative Hotels in Oman see 14pc rise in guests (Source: Oman Observer)  After having received a record number of guests in the Sultanate in the previous year, the hospitality sector is continuing with the growth momentum. momentum  As per the latest data, the number of guests in the first four months of the current year witnessed a commendable 13.8% growth compared with the corresponding period last year.  % to reach RO 77.97 million until the The total revenues from the three and four‐star hotels in the countryy recorded a ggrowth rate of 5.3% end of April this year as against RO 73.19 million in the same period last year, according to data from the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI). The occupancy rate increased by 1.7% to 65.3% compared with 64.2% in the same period of 2016.  According to a recent statement from the Ministry of Tourism, the number of hotel establishments in the Sultanate reached 352 by June 1 g g a 6.6% increase compared p with 2015. this yyear. Byy the end of 2016, the number had stood at 339, registering Oman appoints consultant for coal‐based power study (Source: Oman Observer)  Finland‐based international consulting and engineering services firm Pöyry has been selected by the Omani government to study the p Power Project j (IPP) in the Sultanate. feasibilityy of establishingg a first‐ever coal‐based Independent  The Finnish firm is set to join a consortium of consultants being assembled by OPWP to provide advisory services on all aspects of Oman’s maiden foray into coal‐based power generation. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Octal recycling capacity set to exceed 90 ,000 MT (Source: Oman Observer)  At the vanguard of PET recycling and setting global manufacturing standards for environmental stewardship, Octal has announced that its recycling capacity for PET resin, bottles, pre‐form and sheet flakes will exceed 90,000 metric tonnes per annum by the end of 2017.  To achieve this milestone, the company’s Salalah and Cincinnati plants will raise their processing of PET to over 10,500 kg every hour, returning the product to its original condition and creating an uncompromised sustainable material that can be used in the fabrication of PET packaging. Investments in PET, fertilizer projects proposed by Tanfeedh (Source: Oman Observer)  Investments in Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) capacity as well as an ammonium fertilizer plant are among a quartet of petrochemicals petrochemicals‐ based projects proposed by Tanfeedh — the National Programme for Enhancing Economic Diversification.  Specifics about the Petrochemicals Sub‐Sector and its constituent project proposals — part of an exciting portfolio of 120‐plus initiatives outlined by Tanfeedh in its drive to inject fresh momentum into Oman’s economic development have been detailed in the English version g handbook released. of its long‐awaited  One noteworthy project outlined by Tanfeedh envisions a major role for Oman Oil Company in the development of an ammonia‐based fertilizer plant in the Sultanate.  per annum capacity p y ammonia p plant that will p provide the feedstock necessaryy for It moots the establishment of a 1 million tonnes p conversion into ammonium based fertilizers that are globally in demand for all kinds of agricultural production.  Tanfeedh also advocates a substantial increase in Oman’s Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) production capacity. One initiative proposed by Tanfeedh calls for a ramp‐up in the utilisation of OCTAL’s existing PET sheets and PET resins plant in the Salalah Free Zone.  The plant currently operates at 50 per cent capacity due to limited gas supply averaging 74,000 m3/day. With an additional supply of 50,000 m3/day of gas, plant capacity can be optimised to 100 per cent, it said. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. Oman News Al  Ahli Insurance Co SAOG (Under Transformation)‐ IPO opens today (Source: IPO Prospectus, GBCM Research) Authorized share capital: OMR 25,000,000 divided into 250,000,000 shares with a nominal value of Bzs 100 per share Issued and paid up capital: OMR 10,000,000 divided into 100,000,000 shares with a nominal value of Bzs 100 per share Number of offer shares: 25,000,000 shares, representing 25% of Al Ahlia insurance issued and paid Number of offer shares: 25,000,000 shares, representing 25% of Al Ahlia insurance issued and paid‐up up capital capital Offer price: Bzs 300 per Offer Share (comprising a nominal value of Bzs 100 and a premium of Bzs 200). Persons eligible to subscribe for shares: The subscription will be open to Omani and non‐Omani individuals and juristic persons Offer opening and closing date: 4 July 2017 – 2 August 2017 Purpose of the IPO: Al Ahlia Insurance is undertaking the IPO in order to comply with the requirements of Royal Decree 39/2014 which  amended  the Insurance Law, requiring (among other things) licensed insurance companies to be established as SAOGs and allowing existing insurance  companies a grace period until 17 August 2017 to comply with this requirement. Proposed allocation of shares: in the event that the offer is oversubscribed, shares will be allotted between the eligible investor groups as follows: Category 1 investors: 16,250,000 shares representing 65% of the offer, will be allotted amongst category 1 investors, in proportion to the number  of shares applied for by each applicant Category 2 investors: 8,750,000 shares representing 35% of the offer, will be allotted amongst category 2 investors, in proportion to the number of  shares applied for by each applicant in this category Any under‐subscription in Category I will be carried to Category II and vice versa. The final allocation of offer shares on the above basis will be  decided by the issue manager in the consultation of CMA Minimum and maximum limit under one application:  Category 1 investors: Minimum of 1,000 shares and in multiples of 100 shares thereafter and maximum of 250,000 shares Category 2 investors: Minimum of 250,100 shares and in multiple of 100 thereafter and maximum of 2,500,000 shares which is 10% of the offer Financial advisor Issue manager: Fi i l d i I B kM Bank Muscat SAOG and Collecting banks: t SAOG d C ll ti b k Bank Muscat, Bank Dhofar, National Bank of Oman, Oman Arab Bank,  B kM t B k Dh f N ti lB k fO O A bB k Bank Sohar, Ahli Bank GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Risk aversion trend to continue amid diplomatic tensions, MSM trades technically weak… During the last trading session, the GCC equities ended on a mixed note with UAE (DFM) and Qatar equities revealing outperformance. While Kuwait and Oman underperformed to close lower for the day. Oman revealed strong selling pressure in key index heavyweights especially from the foreign investors, to end lower by 0.6% amid increased risk aversion, it also broke the support of 5,100 levels. We expect the MSM and GCC markets to open in red for the day on the back of continuing diplomatic tensions ahead of Q2 earnings season. MSM continued to trade weak on technical p perspective, p , see next support pp around 5,050 , points. p GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. UAE  News Arabtec unit wins $31 million contract for Dubai Creek Harbour project (Source: Arabian Business)  Construction firm Arabtec Holding announced that one of its subsidiaries has won a AED113 million ($31 million) contract for work on the Dubai Creek Harbour development.  In a statement to Dubai Financial Market, the company said EFECO (Emirates Falcon Electromechanical Co) has entered into a contract with Al Naboodah b d h Co to carry out the h MEP works k off Creekside k d 18 project.  Dubai Creek Harbour is located next to Ras Al Khor wildlife sanctuary, and is a 6 sq km mixed‐use development with waterfront resorts, a yacht club and a marina as well as retail and commercial space.  The statement Th t t t said id EFECO has h been b selected l t d for f the th execution ti and d completion l ti off the th MEP works k off two t 37 t 37‐storey residential id ti l towers. t Th The duration of the project will be 22 months. Abu Dhabi hotel guests data‐ Jan‐May 2017 (Source: Trade Arabia)  Abu Dhabi Ab Dh bi recorded d d nearly l 2 million illi hotel h t l guestt arrivals i l from f J January t May, to M a 4% growth th compared d to t the th same period i d in i 2016, 2016 according di to figures released by Abu Dhabi Tourism and Culture Authority, (TCA Abu Dhabi).  Of this figure, domestic visitors account for more than 600,000 hotel guests across the emirate’s 167 hotels and hotel apartments in Abu Dhabi, Al Ain Region and Al Dhafra Region, reported Wam, the Emirates official news agency. DXB Airport passengers data ‐ May 2017 (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai International welcomed 6.8 million customers during May, an increase of nearly 2%, according to the monthly traffic report issued by operator Dubai Airports.  Passenger numbers at DXB rose 1.9% to 6,850,052 compared to 6,721,995 recorded in May 2016, the company said in a statement.  It added that during the first five months of 2017, DXB welcomed 36,969,594 passengers, a year on year growth of 6.7% compared to the same period last year. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. GCC  News Saudi Arabia sees $213 million corniche project on track (Source: Trade Arabia)  Work on the massive North Jeddah Corniche project, which is being implemented at a cost of SR800 million ($213 million), is in full swing with nearly 80 per cent of the development already completed, according to a report.  Of the six‐phase project, three have already been completed while the fourth and fifth phases are under various stages of construction.  The sixth phase, which will be carried out in the future, extends from Jubeir Bin Al‐Harith Street to Al‐Rahma Mosque in the north, revealed Hani Abu Ras. Saudi Arabia posts SAR 24 billion trade surplus in April (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Arabia's trade balance recorded a surplus of SAR 23.62 billion in April 2017, compared to a surplus of SAR 8.4 billion in the same month last year, official data of the General Authority for Statistics showed. The Kingdom’s trade balance, however, recorded a decline of SAR 8 billion, when compared to the previous month.  Total exports jumped 26% year year‐on‐year on year (YoY) to SAR 66.38 billion in April, while imports saw a 3% YoY decrease to SAR 42.76 billion.  The increase in exports was driven by a 35% YoY rise in oil exports ‐ which account for 78.2% of the Kingdom’s total exports to SAR 51.9 billion in the same period. Non‐oil exports also grew by 2% YoY to SAR 14.46 billion. GBCM Morning Briefing 11
12. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 7/4/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 12