GCC - Equity Market Monitor - 12 June

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA , Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage June 12, 2017 6/12/2017
2. GCC - Equity Market Monitor 20 .0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Daily Return Oman -0.4% Saudi -0.8% UAE (DFM) -0.4% UAE (ADX) 0.5% Kuwait - PI -0.4% Kuwait - Wtd -0.6% Qatar -1.9% Bahrain 0.0% YTD Return -7.8% -5.6% -4.0% -1.0% 17.5% 4.7% -13.2% 8.4% MTD Return -1.7% -0.9% 1.5% 1.6% -0.5% -1.6% -8.5% 0.3% QTD Return -4.0% -2.7% -2.7% 1.2% -3.9% -3.7% -12.8% -2.4% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2
3. MSM - Net Buy /(Sell) Position Top 5 - Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 1.751 million (c. US$ 4.5 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Bank Muscat Banking 391,248 22.3% Insurance 170,000 9.7% Services 160,322 9.2% Insurance 158,896 9.1% Services 156,793 9.0% BUY SELL NET 1,517,654 1,332,893 184,761 Oman United Ins. 205,178 138,171 67,007 Oman Tel Arabs 6,976 62,812 (55,836) Al Madina Takaful OTHERS 21,033 216,964 (195,931) Ooredoo OMANIS GCC MSM - Lead Indicators Value Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend Yield (%) Indices Monitor Current Closing Previous Closing Daily % MTD % Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,142,168 12.9 1.1 6.0% MSM 30 5,331.07 5,354.77 -0.44% -1.68% -7.81% Financial 3,313,109 8.4 0.9 5.0% Financial 7,947.40 8,005.58 -0.73% -1.42% 3.59% Industrial 895,775 12.7 1.3 5.5% Industrial 7,185.36 7,204.54 -0.27% -1.50% -3.00% Services 2,586,114 60.6 1.7 7.1% Services 2,716.07 2,723.48 -0.27% -2.00% -11.20% MSM Shariah 2,410,181 12.8 1.5 6.8% 784.32 787.84 -0.45% -1.12% -9.75% MSM Shariah 6/12/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA Markets Performance Index Global Markets Performance Closing % Chg MENA 13,616.0 -0.5 Egypt Jordan Tunis Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD 2.1 2,163.6 0.1 -0.5 5,808.2 0.2 1.9 24,491.8 -0.6 1.2 528.5 -0.2 0.1 98,942.9 1.0 1.4 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 117.3 -0.8 -1.5 S&P GCC (USD) 95.5 -0.8 -1.5 985.3 -0.1 -1.6 S&P GCC (40 Index)- Price return S&P GCC (40 Index)- Total return 1,602.9 -0.1 -1.6 MSCI GCC 458.3 -0.8 -1.3 MSCI Frontier 564.8 -0.3 0.6 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 876.5 -0.2 1.1 MSCI Arabian Index 501.3 -0.8 -1.2 %QTD %YTD 4.8 -3.8 4.8 2.6 -1.9 11.2 10.3 -0.3 5.8 0.1 -0.3 26.6 -2.6 -3.2 -3.2 -2.3 -2.9 5.2 6.4 -2.5 -3.6 -4.0 -1.8 2.0 -3.9 13.1 16.3 -3.4 Index Closing % Chg Americas S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,431.8 21,272.0 6,207.9 62,210.6 Index Closing Nikkei Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD 1,922.8 -0.1 0.6 3.7 9.8 MSCI World -Ex USA 1,882.4 0.0 0.3 5.0 11.3 MSCI Europe- USD 1,678.6 0.0 -0.4 6.9 14.1 MSCI EM Index 1,018.2 -0.1 1.3 6.2 18.1 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO USD Vs Canadian Dollar USD Vs Japanese Yen USD Vs GBP USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar USD Vs Indian Rupee USD Vs Aus Dollar USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot USD Vs Omani Riyal USD Vs UAE Dirham USD Vs Saudi Riyal USD Vs Kuwait Dinar USD Vs Qatar Riyal USD Vs Bahrain Dinar Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices) US 10+ Yr TR 581.9 -0.1 0.2 3.6 5.6 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 231.5 0.1 0.4 1.6 0.1 -3.6 -6.0 Commodity (Bloomberg) Commodity 82.3 -0.2 -0.7 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %YTD 0.8 1.3 0.2 -0.8 2.9 2.9 5.0 -4.3 8.6 7.6 15.3 3.3 0.1 0.3 1.6 2.8 3.5 4.1 5.4 9.0 11.6 1.8 1.4 0.4 1.3 1.5 -1.1 5.8 8.0 5.5 -2.0 10.3 -6.5 4.7 18.3 17.4 1.8 17.5 -9.6 Closing % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD %QTD %YTD -3.2 5.2 -1.0 1.1 1.7 3.0 3.5 1.3 -0.3 0.8 -1.3 0.2 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -4.9 6.6 -0.1 6.1 3.4 4.6 5.2 2.2 -0.5 5.6 4.4 1.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 -1.8 -0.9 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD %QTD Europe 7,527.3 1.0 5,299.7 0.7 12,815.7 0.8 Asia Pacific 20,013.3 0.5 26,030.3 -0.1 31,262.1 0.2 3,158.4 0.3 2,381.7 0.8 1,041.5 0.3 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Global Benchmark Indices %MTD 4 97.175 1.121 1.345 110.230 1.276 8.709 0.969 6.797 7.796 64.330 0.753 13,293.000 3.536 0.385 3.673 3.751 0.303 3.657 0.377 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.3 0.4 0.5 -1.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.3 1.3 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0
5. Commodities Performance Index Closing Petrochemical Performance % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD Index Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam Benzene FOB Korea Spot 765.0 740.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot Benzene CFR India Spot NYMEX Crude 46.1 0.5 -4.7 -10.4 -18.9 ICE Brent Crude 48.4 0.5 -4.6 -10.3 -17.7 Crude Oil, Oman 47.1 0.4 -5.6 -9.1 -13.1 NYMEX Natural Gas 3.0 -0.6 -1.6 -8.9 -15.8 150.7 0.3 -5.6 -10.6 -18.5 Precious Metals Gold Spot 1,267.0 0.0 -0.2 1.4 10.0 Silver Spot 17.2 -0.2 -1.0 -6.1 7.8 Platinum Spot 943.9 0.4 -0.6 -0.7 4.5 Palladium Spot 872.2 1.9 6.9 9.2 27.3 Base Metals LME Aluminium-Spot 1,901.3 0.1 -1.3 -2.6 11.6 LME Copper-Spot 5,779.5 1.3 2.2 -0.6 4.6 LME Zinc-Spot 2,515.0 2.7 -2.8 -8.6 -1.7 LME Lead-Spot 2,077.3 0.3 -1.0 -10.9 3.9 LME Nickel-Spot 8,924.0 1.9 0.0 -10.4 -10.4 Steel US - Hot Roll Coil Steel 600.0 1.5 4.3 -1.6 -1.3 Agriculture Corn - Active Contract 385.3 -0.6 3.6 3.6 5.8 Wheat - Active Contract 442.8 -0.7 3.1 0.9 2.0 CBOT - Soya bean 939.0 -0.3 2.5 -1.9 -7.9 Shipping Baltic Dry Index 849.0 3.0 %QTD %YTD -6.1 -2.0 -6.7 -8.1 -10.0 -10.8 745.0 -2.0 -8.0 -10.8 750.0 -2.0 -8.0 -10.7 %MTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT) Energy NYMEX Gasoline Closing -3.3 -34.5 -11.7 Condensates (in USD/ MT) European Naptha 405.7 -6.7 -11.7 -12.4 Naphtha C&F Japan 416.8 -4.5 -11.1 -16.1 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 407.8 -4.8 -13.0 -16.1 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot 45.1 -4.6 -11.2 -16.0 Olefins (in USD/ MT) Ethylene Spot 1,125.0 1.4 -5.5 21.6 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 925.0 -5.6 -15.5 -16.3 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 920.0 -5.6 -15.6 -16.4 Propylene FOB Korea Spot 855.0 -0.6 2.4 -1.2 8.6 Intermediate (in USD/ MT) 2EH CFR Far East Asia 945.0 -1.1 -8.3 2EH CFR South East Asia 965.0 -1.0 -8.1 8.4 DOP CFR Far East Asia 975.0 -1.0 1.0 -1.0 Polymers (in USD/ MT) LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT) Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 9,110.0 1,090.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 -4.4 -6.7 -6.8 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,120.0 0.9 -3.5 -4.3 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,130.0 0.0 -3.4 0.0 Urea (in USD/ MT) Urea Price (RMB/ MT) 1,630.0 0.6 -1.8 5.2 UREA Cornbelt 220.0 -2.2 -12.0 -20.0 UREA Middle East 205.0 -2.4 -3.3 -16.3 US Urea Avg. Retail Price 338.1 -3.6 -8.7 -2.1 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 6/12/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Oman floats tenders for key mall substation (Source: Trade Arabia)  Muscat Electricity Distribution Company has floated tenders for a key substation that will power the RO275-million ($714 million) Mall of Oman being developed by UAE-based Majid Al Futtaim Properties, said a report.  Muscat's electricity board wants companies to bid to provide consultancy and supervisory services for design and construction of a primary substation for the major retail destination, reported Times of Oman. The last date for submitting bids for the tenders is July 4, it added. Oman North-South interconnect study nears completion (Source: Trade Arabia)  A ground-breaking study that aims to link the power grid of north Oman with that of Dhofar Governorate in the south of the Sultanate is due to be completed shortly, according to Oman Power and Water Procurement Company (OPWP).  The initiative, dubbed the North-South Interconnect Project, will help link the Main Interconnected System (MIS), covering much of the northern half of the Sultanate, with the Dhofar Power System (DPS), which supplies electricity to Salalah and other areas of Dhofar Governorate.  Significantly, the project also envisions an interconnect with Duqm, where electricity demand is projected to exponentially grow in conjunction with the development of a major Special Economic Zone (SEZ).  “A technical/economic study is scheduled to be complete in Q2 2017, with a recommendation to government for the timing and best route for the project, and projections of economic savings that would be achieved,” said OPWP in an update on the North-South Interconnect Project.  “The expected benefits include fuel savings due to improved dispatch coordination among the power systems, access to areas with renewable energy potential, sharing of spinning reserves (reducing operating costs), and improved grid security,” the state-owned utility added in its latest Outlook Statement for the 2017-2023 timeframe. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Sultanate 2016 FDI crosses $18b-mark (Source: Oman Observer)  Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) in the Sultanate reached $18.55 billion in 2016, according to the Investment Report 2017 of the United Nations Conference for Trade and Development (Unctad). There has been a substantial growth from as low as $2.58 billion during the start of the century.  The report of Unctad says that over the last six years FDI flow into the Sultanate was up by $3.56 billion from $14.99 billion in 2010.  The report affirmed that the global investment was witnessing modest recovery as forecasts for 2017 remained cautiously optimistic. The global FDIs inflows are expected to hit $1.8 trillion in 2017 and go up to $1.85 trillion in 2018. However, they are expected to remain well below their 2007 peak.  Higher economic growth expectations across major regions, a resumption of growth in trade and a recovery in corporate profits could support a small increase in FDIs.  During 2016, FDI inflow across the world declined by 2 per cent to $1.75 trillion compared to the previous year. This has been attributed mainly to the slow economic growth. Policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks could hamper the recovery, and tax policy changes could significantly affect cross-border investment, the report adds.  It added that the FDIs to the developing countries declined by 14 per cent to $646 billion in 2016. The FDIs to Asia also declined by 15 per cent to $443 billion. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM - Market Watch Source : Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Stock specific activity to prevail… During the last trading day, except Abu Dhabi and Bahrain rest of the GCC indices closed in red owing to negative sentiment prevailing in the region. We expect the MSM and the regional equities to open on a flat note for the day due to volatile oil prices and to see stock specific activity. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE News Aster DM Healthcare eyes Saudi market despite past payment delays (Source: Reuters)  Aster DM Healthcare is looking at acquisition opportunities in Saudi Arabia, its managing director told Reuters. This is despite previous delays in payments from the Saudi government, which could have pushed the company to default on a syndicated loan, he said.  Aster is attracted to Saudi Arabia because of the size of the market compared with other Gulf states, and also because of ownership rules, which would let Aster own up to 100 percent of a business, said Azad Moopen.  Aster obtained a $295 million loan from India's Axis Bank in April. The loan replaced and repaid $155 million of a $295 million facility which the firm raised in 2015. Aster replaced the facility to obtain better terms, such as a longer maturity and looser financial requirements for its debt-to-equity ratio.  The decision to look for better terms was triggered by delays in payments of about $150 million from Saudi Arabia's ministry of health. Many companies in the Saudi market, especially construction firms, have suffered such delays as government finances are squeezed by low oil prices.  Almost half of the amount due from Saudi Arabia has been repaid in 2017. The ministry of health asked for a discount on the total debt and the company agreed, Moopen said without elaborating. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC News Almarai to invest SAR 13 bln in production , expansion by 2022 (Source: Argaam)  Almarai Co. has earmarked around SAR 12.5 billion in capital investments from 2018-2022, as part of its new five-year plan, it said in a statement. The investments will be used to raise production in farms, increase distribution centers, and enhance geographical expansions. They will be funded by operating cash flows and other financing options.  Almarai’s board of directors approved last week a five-year business plan for 2018-2022, under which the company seeks to enhance its market foothold, in addition to its conventional retail portfolio in dairy, juice and bakery segments.  Almarai’s poultry segment will likely reach a breakeven point in 2017, while the baby formula division will break even next year. Both segments are expected to generate sustainable profit over the coming years.  Meanwhile, the performance of the dairy and juice businesses in Egypt and Jordan, managed through the joint venture International Dairy and Juice, had been affected by the situation in the region. However, the board remains committed to the venture, the statement said.  Looking ahead, sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of about 7 percent over the coming five years, lower compared to last year's plan.  Accordingly, the dairy giant plans to focus on boosting efficiency and cutting expenses in order to cope with an increasingly competitive environment.  Meanwhile, Almarai’s central processing plant in Al Kharj is expected to launch entire operations in H2 2017, the company said. Qatar banks can survive Gulf, foreign funds withdrawal, S&P says (Source: Arabian Business)  Qatari banks are strong enough to survive the pullout of all Gulf money and then some, according to S&P Global Ratings.  SPGR ran two hypothetical scenarios of capital flight, and concluded that Qatar’s lenders could survive the withdrawal of all Gulf deposits plus a quarter of the remaining foreign funds the banks keep.  Deposits and other funding sources from GCC countries represent about 8% of total liabilities of Qatari lenders or $20 billion, S&P said after examining the 2016 positions of the four biggest banks in Qatar.  In the worst case, only two unidentified lenders would have to dip into their investment securities portfolio, it concluded. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage - Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 6/12/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11