Oman Weekly Market Monitor - 26 March
Oman Weekly Market Monitor - 26 March
Transcription
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research March 26, 2017 Current Week Index Performance MSM 30 . Financial Industrial Services Previous Week WTD (%) YTD (%) Beta (Yr) 5,635.08 5,668.33 ‐0.59% ‐2.55% 1.000 7,981.36 8,005.12 ‐0.30% 4.03% 1.206 7,882.87 7,883.60 ‐0.01% 6.42% 0.735 2,930.32 2,988.68 ‐1.95% ‐4.20% 0.598 Source: MSM, GBCM Research MSM 30 Index Performance Vs Turnover 10,000 5,690 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 ‐ 5,680 In RO 000s 5,670 5,660 5,640 5,630 5,620 5,610 Turnover 19‐Mar 2,936 20‐Mar 4,151 21‐Mar 9,903 22‐Mar 3,024 23‐Mar 5,258 MSM 30 5,668 5,681 5,671 5,630 5,618 5,635 S MSM Weekly Trading Activity ‐ Total Turnover RO 25.272 million (c.US$ 65.71 million) Omanis GCC Arabs Buy Sell Net Buy / (Sell) 20,749,134 20,876,576 (127,442) 2,826,425 1,670,128 1,156,297 56,121 168,723 (112,601) 1,640,134 Others 2,556,388 (916,254) Source: MSM, GBCM Research Page | 1 The week gone by saw the MSM30 Index decline by 0.59% to close at 5,635.08 points as dividend adjustments affected Benchmark Index. A couple of block deals took place during the week; otherwise volumes were more concentrated in select few stocks which had upcoming AGMs during the week or in next week. For the week, the Financial Index declined by 0.30%. The Industrial Index ended the week on a flattish note, while the Services Index dropped 1.95% for the week. In terms of market activity, a total of 85.822 million shares got traded during the week amounting to an aggregate turnover of RO 25.572 million as against RO 29.745 million in previous week. In terms of participation, GCC Investors remained as net buyers to an extent of RO 1.156 million. Omani and Foreign Investors emerged as net sellers to an extent of RO 127K and RO 916K respectively. Oman Banking Sector Data – January 2017 5,650 16‐Mar 5,808 Fig. In RO Impact on dividend adjustments continued… Total credit extended by Omani banks, grew by 8.9% year‐on‐year to RO 22.1 billion by the end of January this year. Total deposits at Omani banks registered a growth of 6.7% to RO 20.6 billion by the end of January, over the same period of last year. The weighted average interest rate of Rial Omani deposits increased from 0.948% in January 2016 to 1.582% in January 2017, while the weighted average Rial Omani lending rate increased from 4.760% to 5.104% during the same period. The overnight Rial Omani domestic inter‐bank lending rate rose to 0.370% in January 2017, from 0.271% a year ago. (Source: Times of Oman) Outlook for the upcoming week… During the last trading week, we saw mixed closing among the regional markets with Kuwait continuing its outperformance trend gaining 3.4% WTD. UAE‐ADX (1.6% WTD) and Qatar (0.8% WTD) also ended on a positive note. While UAE‐DFM (‐1.7% WTD), Oman (‐ 0.6% WTD) and Saudi (‐0.6% WTD) ended in red. MSM Index saw further decline amid the ongoing dividend season/ adjustments. We anticipate the MSM and GCC equities to open on a flattish note for the last trading week of Q1 2017 with relative stable cues from the global equities. Omani stocks would adjust further on the ongoing AGMs/ dividend season. We do see institutional support to come in certain stocks ahead of the dividends in Oman.
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research Value Leaders‐Weekly 8,000 Top Five Gainers/ Losers for the Week 35% 29.9% Sohar Power 7,000 Bank Muscat 6,000 5,000 25% 4,000 3,000 Oman & Emi Al Maha Petro 12.1% 15% 2,000 8.3% 8.4% 4.1% 3.7% Acwa Power 5% 8.9% 0 Omantel 6.0% 1,000 Sembcorp Sal Omantel Oman Cables Bank Muscat Ooredoo 0% ‐8.1% ‐7.0% Oman Cables 3.7% 10% ‐10.1% ‐8.3% Al Jaz Steel 20% ‐11.6% 30% Fincorp Al Hassan Engr 20.4% MSM Sectoral Market cap for the week Volume Leaders‐ Weekly 35,000 30,000 35% 25,000 30% 20,000 Other Services, 5.2% 40% 36.3% Power Utilities, 12.5% 25% Banking, 32.8% 20% 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 15% 5.9% 4.9% Bank Muscat Bank Nizwa Investments, 6.4% 10% 4.8% 3.6% Sembcorp Sal Telecom, 16.2% Oman Fisheries Bank Sohar Oil Marketing, 4.9% 5% Leasing, 3.1% Other Industry, 11.7% Engg & Const., 0.5% 0% Cement, 5.1% Source: MSM, GBCM Research Source: MSM, GBCM Research Page | 2 Brokerage, Insurance, 0.3% 1.4%
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research MSM ‐ Value Indicators GCC‐ Market Performance for the week Value Indicators Mkt. Cap (RO’000s) PER Dividend Yield (%) P/BV MSM 30 Index 6,434,234 10.2 1.1 5.6% Financial 3,250,776 8.5 0.9 4.9% 1,000,570 20.1 1.4 4.7% 2,860,023 12.2 1.7 6.4% ` 2,695,688 Industrial Services 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% MSM Shariah 25.0% 10.7 1.6 6.1% Source: MSM, GBCM Research ‐10.0% Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) WTD (%) ‐0.6% ‐0.6% ‐1.7% YTD (%) ‐2.6% ‐4.6% ‐2.0% UAE (Abu Dhabi) Kuwait Qatar Bahrain 1.6% 3.4% 0.8% 0.1% ‐1.1% 22.5% 0.1% 12.7% Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Commodities Performance for the week Commodities ‐5.0% Oman ‐ Weekly News watch… Current Week Last Week WTD (%) NYMEX WTI Crude 48.0 48.8 ‐1.7% ICE Brent Crude 50.8 51.8 ‐1.9% Crude Oil, Oman 49.9 50.6 ‐1.4% NYMEX Natural Gas 3.1 2.9 4.3% 160.5 159.9 0.4% Gold Spot 1,243.5 1,229.3 1.2% Silver Spot 17.8 17.4 2.1% LME Aluminium (Spot) 1,928.8 1,901.5 1.4% As per news sources, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) raised US$ 230 million through the sale of a five‐year Formosa bond, its second issuance sold in Taiwan this quarter. ADCB's five‐year issue, which was placed with institutional investors, was arranged by JPMorgan Chase & Co. LME Copper (Spot) 5,777.0 5,916.5 ‐2.4% (Source: Arabian Business) LME Zinc (Spot) 2,811.8 2,864.0 ‐1.8% Hot Rolled Coil ‐ Steel 648.0 625.0 3.7% CBOT Corn 356.3 367.5 ‐3.1% CBOT Wheat 424.8 436.3 ‐2.6% CBOT Soyabean 975.8 1,000.0 ‐2.4% Fitch Ratings cut its assessment of Saudi Arabia's credit quality, citing deterioration of state finances due to low oil prices and doubts over whether Riyadh can achieve its economic reform plans. Prices of Saudi bonds stayed firm, however. Fitch downgraded Saudi Arabia by one notch to A+ with a stable outlook from AA‐ with a negative outlook. It said that that while the leadership was strongly committed to diversifying the economy beyond oil, that intention might not be enough. (Source: Reuters) NYMEX Gasoline Al Hassan Engineering has been awarded a contract to carry out the ‘Civil + MEI construction Works’ from CCJV (CB&I ‐ CTCI JV) related to Liwa Plastic Project EPC‐1 section‐3 package for c. RO 38 million. The execution period will be 28 months starting from 1st April 2017 and expect reasonable income from this project. (Source: MSM) GCC ‐ Weekly News Watch… Source: Bloomberg; GBCM Research Page | 3
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage – Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727| Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728| Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. Page | 4
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