GCC Equity Market Monitor - 18 June

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA , Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage June 18, 2017 6/18/2017
2. GCC - Equity Market Monitor 20 .0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Daily Return Oman -1.0% Saudi -0.5% UAE (DFM) 0.3% UAE (ADX) -0.7% Kuwait - PI 0.5% Kuwait - Wtd 0.3% Qatar 0.7% Bahrain 0.0% YTD Return -9.2% -5.4% -2.0% -1.0% 18.5% 5.2% -11.3% 8.7% MTD Return -3.2% -0.7% 3.6% 1.7% 0.4% -1.2% -6.5% 0.6% QTD Return -5.4% -2.6% -0.6% 1.3% -3.1% -3.3% -10.9% -2.1% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2
3. MSM - Net Buy /(Sell) Position Top 5 - Turnover Market Share – Previous Week Previous Week Turnover: RO 9.657 million (c. US$ 25.1 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Bank Muscat Banking 2,061,950 21.35% BUY SELL NET 7,539,200 7,449,647 89,553 Ooredoo Services 856,671 8.87% GCC 962,586 405,678 556,908 Raysut Cement Industry 627,524 6.50% Arabs 148,571 165,076 (16,505) Omantel Services 601,748 6.23% 1,006,770 1,636,726 (629,956) Al Madina Tak Insurance 550,701 5.70% OMANIS OTHERS MSM - Lead Indicators Value Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend Yield (%) Indices Monitor Current Closing Previous Closing Daily % MTD % Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,035,062 12.6 1.1 6.1% MSM 30 5,248.41 5,300.71 -0.99% -3.20% -9.24% Financial 3,281,559 8.3 0.9 5.1% Financial 7,883.54 7,950.87 -0.85% -2.21% 2.76% Industrial 882,385 12.6 1.3 5.6% Industrial 7,121.78 7,112.55 0.13% -2.37% -3.85% Services 2,525,451 59.2 1.6 7.3% Services 2,658.97 2,694.57 -1.32% -4.06% -13.07% MSM Shariah 2,366,131 12.6 1.5 6.9% 773.60 777.74 -0.53% -2.47% -10.98% MSM Shariah 6/18/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA Markets Performance Index Global Markets Performance Closing % Chg MENA 13,478.8 -0.2 Egypt Jordan Tunis Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD 1.0 2,156.8 -0.2 -0.8 5,889.8 -0.2 3.4 24,433.1 -0.7 0.9 534.4 0.2 1.2 98,192.6 -0.6 0.7 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 117.8 0.0 -1.0 S&P GCC (USD) 95.9 0.0 -1.1 982.4 -0.1 -1.9 S&P GCC (40 Index)- Price return S&P GCC (40 Index)- Total return 1,598.1 -0.1 -1.9 MSCI GCC 460.7 0.0 -0.8 MSCI Frontier 562.7 0.3 0.2 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 874.5 0.5 0.9 MSCI Arabian Index 503.5 0.0 -0.7 %QTD %YTD 3.7 -4.1 6.3 2.3 -0.8 10.4 9.2 -0.6 7.3 -0.1 0.8 25.7 -2.2 -2.8 -3.5 -2.6 -2.4 4.8 6.2 -2.1 -3.2 -3.5 -2.1 1.7 -3.4 12.7 16.1 -3.0 Index Closing % Chg Americas S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,433.2 21,384.3 6,151.8 61,626.4 Index Closing Nikkei Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD 1,923.2 0.4 0.6 3.8 9.8 MSCI World -Ex USA 1,881.6 0.8 0.2 4.9 11.3 MSCI Europe- USD 1,673.4 1.1 -0.7 6.6 13.8 MSCI EM Index 1,003.1 -0.1 -0.2 4.7 16.3 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO USD Vs Canadian Dollar USD Vs Japanese Yen USD Vs GBP USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar USD Vs Indian Rupee USD Vs Aus Dollar USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot USD Vs Omani Riyal USD Vs UAE Dirham USD Vs Saudi Riyal USD Vs Kuwait Dinar USD Vs Qatar Riyal USD Vs Bahrain Dinar Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices) US 10+ Yr TR 589.7 0.2 1.6 5.0 7.0 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 232.9 0.3 1.0 2.2 0.7 -4.8 -7.1 Commodity (Bloomberg) Commodity 81.3 0.4 -1.9 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %YTD 0.9 1.8 -0.8 -1.7 3.0 3.5 4.1 -5.2 8.7 8.2 14.3 2.3 -0.8 -0.4 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.6 4.5 8.2 11.1 1.5 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.6 -5.6 5.5 6.3 4.8 -3.1 9.3 -10.7 4.3 16.5 16.6 0.6 16.5 -13.7 Closing % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD %QTD %YTD -3.2 5.1 0.8 0.5 1.9 3.0 3.0 1.1 -0.4 0.7 -0.1 0.2 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 -0.8 -0.1 -4.9 6.5 1.7 5.5 3.6 4.6 4.7 2.0 -0.6 5.4 5.7 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD %QTD Europe 7,463.5 0.6 5,263.3 0.9 12,752.7 0.5 Asia Pacific 19,943.3 0.6 25,626.5 0.2 31,056.4 -0.1 3,123.2 -0.3 2,361.8 0.0 994.4 0.2 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Global Benchmark Indices %MTD 4 97.164 1.120 1.321 110.880 1.278 8.710 0.973 6.811 7.801 64.428 0.762 13,299.000 3.503 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.304 3.670 0.377 -0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.4 2.2 -0.1 -0.8 -0.2 -0.6 0.1 -0.1 0.1 2.6 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.8 0.0
5. Commodities Performance Index Closing Petrochemical Performance % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD Index Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam Benzene FOB Korea Spot 785.0 745.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot Benzene CFR India Spot NYMEX Crude 44.7 0.6 -7.4 -13.0 -21.2 ICE Brent Crude 47.4 1.0 -6.7 -12.2 -19.5 Crude Oil, Oman 46.0 0.8 -7.9 -11.3 -15.2 NYMEX Natural Gas 3.0 -0.6 -1.1 -8.4 -15.3 145.5 1.3 -8.9 -13.7 -21.3 Precious Metals Gold Spot 1,253.7 0.0 -1.2 0.3 8.8 Silver Spot 16.7 -0.3 -3.7 -8.6 4.9 Platinum Spot 930.0 0.7 -2.1 -2.2 2.9 Palladium Spot 865.7 0.9 6.1 8.4 26.3 Base Metals LME Aluminium-Spot 1,856.0 -0.3 -3.6 -4.9 8.9 LME Copper-Spot 5,639.0 0.0 -0.3 -3.0 2.1 LME Zinc-Spot 2,512.3 0.9 -2.9 -8.7 -1.8 LME Lead-Spot 2,091.0 0.9 -0.4 -10.3 4.6 LME Nickel-Spot 8,882.8 1.1 -0.4 -10.8 -10.9 Steel US - Hot Roll Coil Steel 589.0 0.0 2.4 -3.4 -3.1 Agriculture Corn - Active Contract 392.0 1.2 3.2 3.4 5.6 Wheat - Active Contract 481.5 2.7 8.5 6.2 7.5 CBOT - Soya bean 950.0 0.6 3.5 -0.4 -4.0 Shipping Baltic Dry Index 851.0 -0.5 %QTD %YTD -3.7 -1.3 -4.3 -7.5 -7.7 -10.2 750.0 -1.3 -7.4 -10.2 755.0 -1.3 -7.4 -10.1 %MTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT) Energy NYMEX Gasoline Closing -3.1 -34.4 -11.4 Condensates (in USD/ MT) European Naptha 400.9 -7.7 -12.7 -13.4 Naphtha C&F Japan 411.3 -5.8 -12.3 -17.2 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 396.0 -7.6 -15.5 -18.5 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot 44.5 -5.9 -12.4 -17.1 Olefins (in USD/ MT) Ethylene Spot 1,125.0 1.4 -5.5 21.6 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 885.0 -9.7 -19.2 -19.9 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 880.0 -9.7 -19.3 -20.0 Propylene FOB Korea Spot 805.0 -6.4 -3.6 -6.9 8.6 Intermediate (in USD/ MT) 2EH CFR Far East Asia 945.0 -1.1 -8.3 2EH CFR South East Asia 965.0 -1.0 -8.1 8.4 DOP CFR Far East Asia 950.0 -3.6 -1.6 -3.6 -3.1 -0.5 -3.2 -4.8 -9.3 -7.3 Polymers (in USD/ MT) LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT) Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 8,860.0 1,085.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,110.0 0.0 -4.3 -5.1 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,120.0 -0.9 -4.3 -0.9 Urea (in USD/ MT) Urea Price (RMB/ MT) 1,645.0 1.5 -0.9 6.1 UREA Cornbelt 220.0 -2.2 -12.0 -20.0 UREA Middle East 206.0 -1.9 -2.8 -15.9 US Urea Avg. Retail Price 337.8 -3.6 -8.8 -2.2 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 6/18/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Commercial banks loans up by 3 .5% (Source: ONA/Oman Observer)  The quarterly statistical bulletin issued by the Research and Statistics Department at the Central Bank of Oman (CBO) pointed out that the commercial banks' total credit for the other economic activities during the first three months of 2017 stood at RO586.6 million or 3.5%. The banking credit for non-residents stood at 267.3 million or 1.4% of the total banking credit.  The personal loans received RO7,973.3 million or 40.5% of the total banking credit during the first three months of 2017 compared to RO 2,200.6 million or 11.2% for the construction sector, RO1,698.2 million or 8.6% for the service sector, RO1,370.4 million or 7% for the industry sector.  The bulletin pointed out that the import sector received RO1,117.7 million or 5.7% of the credit granted for the commercial banks during the first quarter of 2017. The financial institutions received RO1,041.5 million or 5.3% of the total credit in the same period.  The electricity, gas and water received RO 974.9 million or 4.9% compared to RO980 million or 5.1% for the financial institution, RO918.1 million or 4.7% for the mining sector (quarries and mines).  The banking loans granted to transport sector during the first quarter of this year stood at RO749.6 million or 3.8T compared to RO733.8 million or 3.7T for the wholesale and retail, RO53.9 million for the agriculture sector and its associated activities, RO19.7 million or 0.1% for the export sector and RO13.5 million or 0.1% of the total loans of the economic sectors for the government sector.  The bulletin also added that the commercial banks' total credit for the other economic activities during the first three months of 2017 stood at RO586.6 million or 3.5%. The banking credit for non-residents stood at 267.3 million or 1.4% of the total banking credit. Electricity output rises 5.7% (Source: Oman Observer)  The Sultanate’s gross electricity production rose 5.7%to 6,552.5 gigawatt (GW) by the end of the first quarter 2017, compared with 6199.7 GW while the net production went up 6.8% to 6,308.5 GW, according to the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI).  The gross production in Muscat saw a fall of 53% to 511.7 GW while Dhofar production rose 4% to 731.7 GW. In Musandam’s electricity production went up 2.6% to 53.2 GW, while in Al Dakhiliyah output declined 38.8% to 141.1 GW when compared with March 2016. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Savannah eyes launch of copper mining operations in H1 2018 (Source: Oman Observer)  Savannah Resources says it plans to kickstart operations at a pair of mineral blocks in the Samayil Ophiolite Belt in the first half of next year.  It follows an announcement that the company has received initial advice from the Ministry of Environment and Climate Affairs (MECA) on the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for the development of a processing plant and tailings facility for its Block 4 and 5 copper projects in the Sultanate.  Savannah says it has received in-principle approval for its tailings storage facility (TSF) concept, subject to further studies and test work being presented to MECA for review and consideration. The TSF concept involves the utilisation of the abandoned Lasail West pit for tailings storage.  The Lasail West pit is adjacent to the main, historic Lasail Mine which, as a large underground operation produced an estimated 13 million tonnes of ore at 2 per cent copper, and which retains excellent potential for the identification of further copper mineralisation. Oilfield sector consumes 30pc of total gas supply (Source: Oman Observer)  Roughly a third of Oman’s total natural gas supply was utilised in oilfield-related operations in 2016, primarily as a fuel resource and also for re-injection into oil wells as part of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects, according to the Ministry of Oil & Gas.  Figures published by the ministry placed the oilfield sector high on a list of major gas consumers of the year. Around 12.44 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas, representing 30% of the total supply (locally produced and imported volumes) of 40.85 bcm, was devoted to oilfield operations and related uses.  In some oilfield areas, significant volumes of gas are used for generating steam necessary for thermal EOR projects. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM - Market Watch Source : Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Sideways movement to prevail, overall volumes to remain dull… During the previous trading week, within the GCC region we saw UAE‐DFM (gained +1.7%) followed by Abu dhabi, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar surging by 0.6%,0.4%,0.3% and 0.2% respectively, while Oman and Saudi closed on a negative note. MSM ended lower by 2.0% amid sideways movement along with dull market participation. We anticipate the local and the regional markets to trade within a narrow range coupled with low market participation ahead of holiday season. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE News DEWA hires firm for $520m hydroelectric plant (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) has awarded the AED58 million consultancy contract to French energy giant EDF for a hydroelectric power station at Hatta Dam.  The AED1.92 billion ($520 million) project is the first of its kind in the Gulf, with a total capacity of 250MW, and is expected to last between 60 to 80 years.  The consultancy contract covers design, hydro-geological, geological, environmental, geotechnical, and deep excavation studies, a statement said.  It also includes consultancy on deep-water tunnel designs, the dam and hydroelectric power station, the tender for material supply, supervision of construction work, site installation, on-site testing and commissioning. Abu Dhabi sees 7% rise in tourists in first four months of 2017 (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi welcomed 1.6 million guest arrivals in the first four months of 2017, up 7% on the same period in 2016.  New figures from the Abu Dhabi Tourism and Culture Authority (TCA Abu Dhabi), showed that April continued to build on the strong performance of the opening quarter of the year, posting a year-on-year increase of 15% in hotel guest arrivals.  Each of the six international tier-one markets of China, India, UK, US, Germany and Saudi Arabia showed growth, state news agency WAM reported.  It added that domestic hotel guest numbers in April also grew, numbering 130,000, with each of the emirate’s three regions, Abu Dhabi, Al Ain and Al Dhafra regions, all experiencing an upturn in arrivals. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC News Zahrat Al Waha to launch IPO on Tadawul in August    (Source: Argaam) The Capital Market Authority (CMA) has approved the prospectus for Zahrat Al Waha For Trading Company’s initial public offering on the Saudi Stock Market, the market regulator said in a statement. Zahrat Al Waha will float 4.5 million shares (30% of capital) during the period from Aug 13 to Aug. 20, as soon as the book-building process is complete. Al-Ma'athar REIT IPO to begin July 2 (Source: Argaam)  the Capital Market Authority (CMA) approved listing units of Al-Ma'athar REIT on the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) as a Real Estate Investment Traded Fund.  Al-Ma'athar is a closed-ended, Sharia-compliant real estate investment traded fund. The fund targets capital of SAR 613.7 million and will be floated in aninitial public offering (IPO) from July 2 to July 6, 2017.  The REIT will invest at least 75% of its total assets in developed real estate assets and will not invest in vacant land. Saudi construction market to hit $96.4bn by 2025 (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabia's construction market is set to register solid growth over the next eight years, growing two-fold to reach a record high of SR362 billion ($96.4 billion) in 2025 from SR170 billion last year, said a report, citing a recent report by BMI Research.  Advanced construction technology, such as open-source 4D Building Information Models (BIM), can help the kingdom’s architects, engineers, and contractors to enhance collaboration, productivity, and costs, across the design, concrete and steel rebar installation, and facilities management, reported The Saudi Gazette.  These advanced construction technology tools will be vital for delivering Saudi Vision 2030 mega-projects on time and on budget, experts announced ahead of The Big 5 Saudi Arabia. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage - Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 6/18/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11