Fixed Income Weekly List - 2 January

Transcription

1. Fixed Income Opportunities in Fixed Income Name Country of Risk Industry Group Maturity CBB INTERNATIONAL SUKUK KINGDOM OF BAHRAIN KINGDOM OF BAHRAIN KINGDOM OF BAHRAIN OOREDOO INTL FINANCE HIKMA PHARMACEUTICALS PL SIB SUKUK CO III LTD SHARJAH SUKUK LTD EMAAR SUKUK LTD DIB SUKUK LTD EIB SUKUK LTD ALPHA STAR HOLDING LTD CODELCO INC EQUATE PETROCHEMICAL BV QNB FINANCE LTD EMBRAER OVERSEAS LTD EZDAN SUKUK CO LTD KUWAIT PROJECTS CO LAMAR FUNDING LTD SAUDI ELEC GLOBAL SUKUK KINGDOM OF JORDAN KINGDOM OF JORDAN CODELCO INC EA PARTNERS II BV LUKOIL INTL FINANCE BV OMAN GOV INTERNTL BOND AUST & NZ BANKING GROUP OMAN GOV INTERNTL BOND BANK MUSCAT SAOG SAUDI INTERNATIONAL BOND SAUDI INTERNATIONAL BOND SAUDI INTERNATIONAL BOND BNQ CEN TUNISIA INT BOND ALBARAKA TURK KATILIM BA FINANSBANK AS EQUATE PETROCHEMICAL BV KOC HOLDINGS AS TURKCELL ILETISIM HIZMET REPUBLIC OF TURKEY HAZINE MUSTESARLIGI VARL TURKIYE IS BANKASI A.S KT KIRA SERT VARLIK TURKIYE IS BANKASI A.S DIFC SUKUK EMIRATES AIRLINES UNITY 1 SUKUK LIMITED ADCB FINANCE CAYMAN LTD BURGAN SENIOR SPC LTD ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERG ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERG ABU DHABI NATIONAL ENERG 2-Jan-17 BAHRAIN BAHRAIN BAHRAIN BAHRAIN BERMUDA BRITAIN CAYMAN ISLANDS CAYMAN ISLANDS CAYMAN ISLANDS CAYMAN ISLANDS CAYMAN ISLANDS CAYMAN ISLANDS CHILE NETHERLANDS CAYMAN ISLANDS CAYMAN ISLANDS CAYMAN ISLANDS CAYMAN ISLANDS CAYMAN ISLANDS CAYMAN ISLANDS JORDAN JORDAN CHILE NETHERLANDS NETHERLANDS OMAN AUSTRALIA OMAN OMAN SAUDI ARABIA SAUDI ARABIA SAUDI ARABIA TUNISIA TURKEY TURKEY NETHERLANDS TURKEY TURKEY TURKEY TURKEY TURKEY TURKEY TURKEY UAE UAE CAYMAN ISLANDS CAYMAN ISLANDS UAE UAE UAE UAE Sovereign Sovereign Sovereign Sovereign Telecommunications Pharmaceuticals Banks Sovereign Real Estate Banks Banks Real Estate Mining Chemicals Banks Aerospace/Defense Real Estate Holding Companies-Divers Electric Electric Sovereign Sovereign Mining Airlines Oil&Gas Sovereign Banks Sovereign Banks Sovereign Sovereign Sovereign Banks Banks Banks Chemicals Holding Companies-Divers Telecommunications Sovereign Sovereign Banks Banks Banks Diversified Finan Serv Airlines Airlines Banks Banks Electric Electric Electric 2/12/2024 10/12/2028 1/26/2021 1/26/2026 6/22/2026 4/10/2020 9/8/2021 9/17/2024 9/15/2026 3/30/2021 5/31/2021 4/9/2019 9/16/2025 11/3/2026 9/7/2021 9/16/2023 5/18/2021 3/15/2023 5/7/2025 4/8/2024 1/29/2026 1/31/2027 7/17/2022 6/1/2021 11/2/2026 6/15/2026 5/19/2026 6/15/2021 5/3/2021 10/26/2021 10/26/2026 10/26/2046 1/30/2025 6/30/2019 4/30/2019 3/3/2022 3/15/2023 10/15/2025 4/14/2026 10/10/2018 12/10/2023 11/2/2021 6/25/2021 11/12/2024 2/6/2025 11/30/2021 3/6/2023 9/14/2021 1/12/2023 5/6/2024 6/22/2026 Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments Credit Rating BB BB BB BB A BB+ NR ABBBANR NR A BBB A+ BBBBB+ BBBBBB A B+ B+ A NR BBBBBB ABBB BBB A+ A+ A+ BBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBB+ BB+ BBNR BB+ NR #N/A N/A NR AA AAA- Ask YTM Ask Price 5.09 6.65 4.62 6.29 3.92 4.08 3.17 3.29 4.05 3.25 3.28 5.65 4.22 4.73 3.18 4.68 4.41 4.38 5.02 3.47 5.85 6.41 3.51 6.34 4.65 5.12 4.23 3.54 3.49 2.96 3.85 4.74 6.69 5.72 4.46 3.88 5.38 6.08 5.75 3.64 7.14 4.91 6.05 3.83 4.15 3.52 4.03 3.31 3.63 3.86 4.20 103.16 102.82 104.61 104.87 98.64 100.52 99.63 103.23 96.70 101.38 101.08 98.57 102.04 96.26 95.45 105.76 99.85 103.33 92.82 103.40 101.93 95.17 97.45 101.58 100.76 97.29 101.28 100.34 101.05 97.38 95.13 96.23 94.19 101.25 103.90 95.93 99.31 97.80 89.35 101.56 103.85 100.95 95.92 103.35 102.39 101.51 102.55 99.21 99.97 100.10 101.37 Price Change %, WTD Duration 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.11 0.35 0.14 0.09 0.25 0.65 0.00 0.02 0.09 0.13 0.15 0.28 0.15 -0.01 0.18 0.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.03 -0.08 -0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.16 0.00 0.53 0.00 0.00 5.75 7.87 3.51 6.51 7.87 2.99 4.28 6.59 7.97 3.87 4.04 2.08 7.06 7.85 4.37 5.47 3.92 5.23 6.91 6.22 6.73 7.39 4.97 3.77 7.73 7.48 7.59 4.07 3.94 4.48 8.22 15.89 6.14 2.27 2.13 4.69 5.14 6.70 7.36 1.67 5.28 4.20 3.93 6.60 3.56 4.42 5.28 4.29 5.27 6.29 7.69 Kindly read disclaimer at the end of this presentation S&P Outlook STABLE STABLE STABLE STABLE STABLE NEG NEG STABLE NEG NEG NEG NEG STABLE STABLE STABLE STABLE STABLE STABLE STABLE STABLE # STABLE STABLE STABLE STABLE STABLE Coupon % 5.62 7.00 5.88 7.00 3.75 4.25 3.08 3.76 3.64 3.60 3.54 4.97 4.50 4.25 2.13 5.70 4.38 5.00 3.96 4.00 6.13 5.75 3.00 6.75 4.75 4.75 4.40 3.63 3.75 2.38 3.25 4.50 5.75 6.25 6.25 3.00 5.25 5.75 4.25 4.56 7.85 5.14 5.00 4.33 4.50 3.86 4.50 3.13 3.63 3.88 4.38 Next Coupon Payment Shari'ah Compliant Currency 2/12/2017 Y USD 4/12/2017 N USD 1/26/2017 N USD 1/26/2017 N USD 6/22/2017 N USD 4/10/2017 N USD 3/8/2017 Y USD 3/17/2017 Y USD 3/15/2017 Y USD 3/30/2017 Y USD 5/31/2017 Y USD 4/9/2017 Y USD 3/16/2017 N USD 5/3/2017 N USD 3/7/2017 N USD 3/16/2017 N USD 5/18/2017 Y USD 3/15/2017 N USD 5/7/2017 N USD 4/8/2017 Y USD 1/29/2017 N USD 1/31/2017 N USD 1/17/2017 N USD 3/1/2017 N USD 5/2/2017 N USD 6/15/2017 N USD 5/19/2017 N USD 6/15/2017 N USD 5/3/2017 N USD 4/26/2017 N USD 4/26/2017 N USD 4/26/2017 N USD 1/30/2017 N USD 6/30/2017 Y USD 4/30/2017 N USD 3/3/2017 N USD 3/15/2017 N USD 4/15/2017 N USD 4/14/2017 N USD 4/10/2017 Y USD 6/10/2017 N USD 5/1/2017 Y USD 6/25/2017 N USD 5/12/2017 Y USD 2/6/2017 N USD 5/30/2017 Y USD 3/6/2017 N USD 3/14/2017 N USD 1/12/2017 N USD 5/6/2017 N USD 6/22/2017 N USD Source: Bloomberg, All Prices are Indicative
2. Yield Curve Analysis & Macro Commentary Fixed Income US Yield Curve (%) 3.50 3.00 2.27 2.445 2.50 2.00 1.50 02-Jan-17 1.00 31-Dec-15 0.50 One Month Ago: 2.384 0.00 1M 3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y • As investors and traders enjoyed their holidays and prepared themselves for what looks to be yet another tough ride in 2017, global sovereign yields inched remarkably lower in a quiet week in terms of volumes as well as relevant macroeconomic data. Initially, EU’s short dated yields dropped substantially and hovered near their historic lows, the trend was shortly followed by longer dated EU yields, and eventually, US sovereign yields. The downward trends observed during the week were further intensified by weaker than expected “Pending Home Sales” data and higher demand for the latest US treasury auction, namely the 7yr Treasuries. • US 10yr government yield closed the week down by 11bps @ 2.446%. German 10yr government yield also closed the week lower by almost 5bps at 0.207%. While Japan 10yr government yield traded in a range bound space between 0.06% and 0.04% to close the week at 0.043%. • Although we end the year on a low note in terms of economic data availability, next week should bring with it some important economic numbers such as, PMIs, EU CPI, and the US employment report. GCC fixed income market in 2017: • GCC fixed income market won't be isolated from global trends. Current yields are reflecting two rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, although the FED indicated that there will be three in 2017. As a result of this discrepancy in expectations, if investors turned out to be wrong, and the FED did actually hike rates three times, yields should tick up higher. • Although higher oil prices, compared to last year, would be a great thing for GCC countries, still most (if not all) of them will face budget deficits in 2017, which are expected to be financed either through reserves or through issuing new debt, as such: • Kuwait is already in the process of issuing $10bln Eurobond. Which is expected in 1Q-2017 • Saudi Arabia made clear in its budget report that the kingdom should issue new International Bonds (conventional and sharia compliant) in 2017 and the years to follow • Oman also stated that it would tap the international market for further debt issuance to bridge its USD7.8bln deficit • Additionally, several GCC banks will need to comply with Basil’s new capital requirements, indicating that GCC banks will most likely have to issue more bonds • In a nutshell, although supportive oil prices would be credit positive for GCC countries, the global inflationary environment, along with a new wave of debt supply, would send the yields higher in the GCC region in 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments Kindly read disclaimer at the end of this presentation
3. Fixed Income Macro Indicators • Global Economic Indicators: United States CB Consumer Confidence- Dec Pending Home Sales Goods Trade Balance Bllion- Nov Initial Jobless Claims Europe UK Nationwide HIP (YoY)- Dec Germany Manufacturing PMI- Dec Asia Japan Retail Sales (YoY)- Nov Japan Industrial Production (MoM)- Nov Japan Core CPI (YoY)- Nov Japan Household Spending (YoY)- Nov China Manufacturing PMI- Dec China Non-Manufacturing PMI- Dec Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments Actual 113.7 -2.50% -65.30 265K Actual 4.50% 55.60 Actual 1.70% 1.50% -0.40% -0.60% 51.40 54.50 Forecast 109 0.50% -61.50 264K Forecast 3.80% 55.50 Forecast 0.90% 1.60% -0.30% 0.40% 51.50 Previous 109.4 0.10% -61.99 275K Previous 4.40% 55.5 Previous -0.10% 0.00% -0.40% -1.00% 51.7 54.70 Notes highest level since 2001 10-month low Notes highest reading since Jan 2014 Notes Factory input prices rose to 5yr high Services inputs increased to 3yr high Kindly read disclaimer at the end of this presentation
4. Fixed Income USD Investment Grade Short Term Fixed Income List Name Country of Risk Industry Group Sector Maturity TURKIYE GARANTI BANKASI YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI AS EMPRESA DE ENERGIA DE BO GLOBAL BANK CORPORATION TURKIYE GARANTI BANKASI GERDAU TRADE INC YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI AS PETROLEOS MEXICANOS FINANSBANK AS MERSIN ULUS LIMAN REPUBLIC OF NAMIBIA GLOBAL BANK CORPORATION AES GENER SA GERDAU HOLDINGS INC PETROLEOS MEXICANOS OLEODUCTO CENTRAL SA COMISION FED DE ELECTRIC TURK TELEKOMUNIKASYON AS EQUATE PETROCHEMICAL BV KOC HOLDINGS AS UPL CORP LTD BANCOLOMBIA SA ZHAOHAI INVESTMENT BVI OMAN GOV INTERNTL BOND INDIAN OIL CORP LTD FIRSTRAND BANK LTD CENCOSUD SA ENGIE ENERGIA CHILE SA ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LTD BANK MUSCAT SAOG RHB BANK CODELCO INC AXIS BANK /DUBAI MINMETALS BOUNTEOUS FINA CBD CAYMAN BURGAN SENIOR SPC LTD PETROLEOS MEXICANOS ZAR SOV CAPITAL FUND DIB SUKUK LTD HUNGARY REPUBLIC OF COLOMBIA 2-Jan-17 TURKEY TURKEY COLOMBIA PANAMA TURKEY BRITISH VIRGIN TURKEY MEXICO TURKEY TURKEY NAMIBIA PANAMA CHILE UNITED STATES MEXICO COLOMBIA MEXICO TURKEY NETHERLANDS TURKEY MAURITIUS COLOMBIA BRITISH VIRGIN OMAN INDIA SOUTH AFRICA CHILE CHILE CAYMAN ISLANDS OMAN MALAYSIA CHILE INDIA BRITISH VIRGIN CAYMAN ISLANDS UAE MEXICO SOUTH AFRICA CAYMAN ISLANDS HUNGARY COLOMBIA Banks Banks Electric Banks Banks Iron/Steel Banks Oil&Gas Banks Commercial Services Sovereign Banks Electric Iron/Steel Oil&Gas Pipelines Electric Telecommunications Chemicals Holding Companies-Divers Chemicals Banks Engineering&Construction Sovereign Oil&Gas Banks Food Electric Gas Banks Banks Mining Banks Mining Banks Banks Oil&Gas Sovereign Banks Sovereign Sovereign Financials Financials Utilities Financials Financials Materials Financials Energy Financials Industrials Government Financials Utilities Materials Energy Energy Utilities Communications Materials Energy Materials Financials Industrials Government Energy Financials Consumer Staples Utilities Utilities Financials Financials Materials Financials Materials Financials Financials Energy Government Financials Government Government 4/20/2021 10/22/2019 11/10/2021 10/20/2021 10/17/2019 1/30/2021 12/3/2018 2/4/2021 4/30/2019 8/12/2020 11/3/2021 10/30/2019 8/15/2021 1/20/2020 3/5/2020 5/7/2021 5/26/2021 6/19/2019 3/3/2022 4/24/2020 10/13/2021 6/3/2021 7/23/2020 6/15/2021 8/2/2021 4/30/2020 1/20/2021 1/15/2021 5/13/2021 5/3/2021 10/6/2021 11/3/2021 6/1/2021 7/30/2020 11/17/2020 9/14/2021 2/4/2019 6/24/2020 3/30/2021 3/29/2021 7/12/2021 Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments Credit Rating BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBB+ BBBBBB BBBBBBBBB BBB+ BBB BBBBBBBBBBBB BBBBBB BBB+ A BBBBBB+ BBB+ A BBB BBBABBBBBB Kindly read disclaimer at the end of this presentation Ask YTM 5.66 5.43 5.26 4.94 4.75 4.76 4.73 4.51 4.46 4.40 4.30 4.13 4.09 4.08 4.01 3.99 3.99 3.94 3.88 3.79 3.75 3.75 3.67 3.54 3.47 3.55 3.48 3.48 3.38 3.49 3.40 3.28 3.35 3.28 3.31 3.31 3.24 3.31 3.25 3.19 3.06 Ask Price Price Change %, WTD 102.19 99.20 103.66 98.13 99.99 103.63 100.93 106.89 103.90 104.87 105.17 102.63 104.83 108.27 105.87 100.02 103.53 99.56 95.93 99.10 97.81 108.85 101.09 100.34 109.05 102.18 107.57 107.98 110.54 101.05 96.09 102.63 98.06 100.75 102.48 99.21 104.51 101.93 101.38 112.53 105.50 0.00 0.00 0.06 -0.01 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 -0.04 0.07 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.11 0.47 0.07 0.35 0.00 0.00 -0.02 0.07 0.15 0.34 0.00 0.32 0.48 0.00 0.36 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 Duration S&P Outlook 3.68 2.55 0.07 4.21 2.55 3.52 1.79 3.50 2.13 1.50 4.19 2.59 4.00 2.67 2.83 3.92 3.91 2.32 4.69 3.07 4.34 3.87 3.23 4.07 3.97 3.06 3.55 3.52 3.83 3.94 4.40 4.35 4.09 3.29 3.55 4.29 1.92 3.22 3.87 3.69 4.02 STABLE STABLE STABLE NEG STABLE Coupon % Next Coupon Payment 6.25 4/20/2017 5.13 4/22/2017 6.13 5/10/2017 4.50 4/20/2017 4.75 4/17/2017 5.75 1/30/2017 STABLE 5.25 6/3/2017 NEG 6.38 2/4/2017 6.25 4/30/2017 5.88 2/12/2017 5.50 5/3/2017 NEG 5.13 4/30/2017 STABLE 5.25 2/15/2017 7.00 1/20/2017 NEG 6.00 3/5/2017 NEG 4.00 5/7/2017 NEG 4.88 5/26/2017 STABLE 3.75 6/19/2017 3.00 3/3/2017 STABLE 3.50 4/24/2017 STABLE 3.25 4/13/2017 NEG 5.95 6/3/2017 4.00 1/23/2017 NEG 3.63 6/15/2017 5.63 2/2/2017 NEG 4.25 4/30/2017 5.50 1/20/2017 STABLE 5.63 1/15/2017 STABLE 6.00 5/13/2017 NEG 3.75 5/3/2017 STABLE 2.50 4/6/2017 STABLE 3.88 5/3/2017 2.88 6/1/2017 3.50 1/30/2017 4.00 5/17/2017 3.13 3/14/2017 NEG 5.50 2/4/2017 3.90 6/24/2017 3.60 3/30/2017 STABLE 6.38 3/29/2017 NEG 4.38 1/12/2017 Source: Bloomberg, All Prices are Indicative
5. Spread Analysis & Macro Analysis Fixed Income Probability of a Fed Rate Hike (As of 2, Jan. 2017) Bloomberg Barclays GlobalAgg Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD Fed Meeting Probability of an Interest Rate Hike Probability of an Interest Rate Cut Feb-17 12.4% 0.00% Mar-17 31.3% 0.00% May-17 42.0% 0.00% June-03 70.8% 0.00% July-03 74.5% 0.00% 490 480 470 460 450 430 US Spread 30yr - 2yr Treasuries Germany Generic Govt 2Y Yield Jan-17 Nov-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 May-16 Jan-16 Mar-16 Nov-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 May-15 Jan-15 Mar-15 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jul-14 May-14 Jan-14 Mar-14 Nov-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 May-13 Jan-13 -1.00% 1.25% Jan-12 0.00% Mar-13 1.00% Sep-12 1.839% 2.00% Nov-12 3.00% Jul-12 4.00% 0.50 0.30 0.10 -0.10 -0.30 -0.50 -0.70 -0.90 Mar-12 5.00% May-12 US Spread 10yr - 2yr Treasuries 440 The yield spread figure is the difference between two key interest rates. Spreads usually indicate the likelihood of a recession or a recovery. Spreads are also used to gauge the extent of market risk-taking and business confidence. For example a narrowing spread between the 2 &10 treasury yields indicates a flattening yield curve while a widening one implies steepness in the curve. If the spread between US treasury & High yield bond is widening it means that credit risk perception of lower quality bond is increasing in the market. If spread between investment grade bond & treasury yields is declining it means that perception of credit risk is declining and investors are positive on economic activity in general Source: Bloomberg, Capital Investments Kindly read disclaimer at the end of this presentation
6. Fixed Income Investment Team Yezan Haddadin Bashar M . Amad, CFA CEO Deputy CEO & Head of Capital Markets Yhaddadin@capitalinv.com Bashar.Amad@capitalinv.com Wassim Jomaa, CFA Raed Al Momani Head of Asset Management Portfolio Manager Wassim.jomaa@capitalinv.com Raed.momani@capitalinv.com Qasem Bilbeisi Mohammad Al Zou’bi, CFA Sarah Elawi Financial Analyst Financial Analyst Financial Analyst Qasem.bilbeisi@capitalinv.com Mohammad.alzoubi@capitalinv.com Sarah.Elawi@CapitalInv.com Disclaimer The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Capital Investments makes no warranty as to the accuracy and completeness of the information contained herein. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute and reflect our independent judgment as of the date published on the report and are subject to change without notice. Capital Investments accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this report. Capital Investments and its related companies may have performed or seek to perform any financial or advisory services for the companies mentioned in this report. Capital Investments, its funds, or its employees may from time to time take positions or effect transactions in the securities issued by the companies or securities mentioned in this report .This document may not be reproduced in any form without the expressed written permission of Capital Investments. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Prior to investing, investors should seek independent financial, tax and legal advice.