Qatar: Weekly Market Report

Transcription

1. ` QSE Index and Volume Regional Indices Qatar (QSE)* Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia# Kuwait Oman Bahrain Close WTD% MTD% YTD% 8,526.00 3,370.07 4,398.44 7,201.21 6,408.01 5,047.14 1,306.03 (1.1) 0.1 1.1 (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) 1.9 10.5 (1.5) 2.7 2.8 3.4 (1.2) 1.7 (18.3) (4.6) (3.3) (0.1) 11.5 (12.7) 7.0 8,460 9,000,000 8,280 0 24-Dec 25-Dec 26-Dec 27-Dec Volume Market Indicators Value Traded (QR mn) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) QSE Index Week ended Dec 28 , 2017 1,260.4 Week ended Dec 21 , 2017 1,396.8 472,719.5 475,725.3 62.0 60.5 2.5 14,609 16,682 (12.4) 43 45 (4.4) 18:23 42:2 – Volume (mn) Number of Transactions Companies Traded Market Breadth Market Indices Total Return ALL Share Index Banks and Financial Services Industrials Transportation Real Estate Insurance Telecoms Consumer Goods & Services Al Rayan Islamic Index Market Indices Weekly Index Performance 3.0% 2.0% 28-Dec Close 14,297.61 2,456.32 2,677.63 2,620.91 1,756.73 1,940.35 3,563.43 1,100.18 4,866.19 3,384.15 WTD% (1.1) (0.5) (1.2) (0.3) 1.0 1.1 1.9 (4.9) 0.3 (0.5) MTD% 10.5 15.0 9.1 11.5 11.2 37.1 31.2 13.9 10.3 11.6 Chg. % (9.8) (0.6) YTD% (15.3) (14.4) (8.1) (20.7) (31.0) (13.5) (19.7) (8.8) (17.5) (12.8) 1.9% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% (2.0%) Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) 248.16 505.12 216.52 4,690.31 138.28 15.96 32.34 Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) 129,808.8 106,763.2# 113,935.8 448,737.4 91,273.4 21,056.6 20,153.1 TTM P/E** 13.8 21.3 15.8 17.0 15.7 12.1 7.7 (1.1%) Qatar (QSE)* (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.3%) (1.0%) Oman Foreign institutions remained bullish with net buying of QR45.8mn vs. net buying of QR97.8mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions turned bearish with net sellinging of QR59.2mn vs. net buying of QR11.7mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bearish with net selling of only QR37k vs. net selling of QR3.0mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors turned bullish with net buying of QR13.4mn vs. net selling of QR106.5mn the week before. In 2017 YTD, foreign institutions bought (on a net basis) ~$810mn worth of Qatari equities. 8,526.00 8,500.08 8,501.03 Kuwait Trading volume increased by 2.52% to reach 61.9mn shares versus 60.4mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions decreased by 12.4% to reach 14,609 transactions versus 16,682 transactions in the prior week. The I Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading volume, accounting for 42.3%, followed by the Industrials sector which accounted for 23.2% of the overall trading volume. Qatar First Bank (QFBQ) was the top volume traded stock during the week with 17.0mn shares. 8,569.58 Saudi Arabia Trading value during the week decreased by 9.76% to reach QR1.26bn versus QR QR1.39bn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 56.9% of the total trading value. The Industrials sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for 14.3 % of the total trading value. QNBK was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR431.3 million (mn). 18,000,000 8,600.20 Dubai Ooredoo (ORDS), QNB Group (QNBK) and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) were the primary contributors to the weekly index losses. ORDS was the biggest contributor to the index’s weekly decline, erasing 33.6 points off the index. QNBK was the second biggest contributor to the losses, shedding 33.4 points off the index. Moreover, MARK erased 30.3 points from the index. However, Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS) added only 0.43 points from the index. 8,640 Abu Dhabi The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index decreased by 95.34 points or 1.11% during the trading week to close at 8,523.00. Market capitalization decreased by 0.63% to QR472.7 billion (bn) versus QR475.7bn at the end of the previous trading week. Of the 45 listed companies, 18 companies ended the week higher, while 23 declined and 4 companies remained unchanged. Ahli Bank (ABQK) was the best performing stock for the week with a gain of 24.3% on 19k shares traded. On the other hand, Qatar Islamic Insurance (QISI) was the worst performing stock for the week with a decline of 7.12% on 20k shares traded. Bahrain Market Review and Outlook P/B** Dividend Yield 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 4.6 4.2 4.6 3.4 5.4 5.2 6.0 # Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any; Data as of December 27, 2017) Page 1 of 7
2. News Economic News  QNCD to hold board meeting on February 5 to discuss the financial statements – Qatar National Cement Company (QNCD) announced that its board of directors will hold its meeting on February 5, 2018 to discuss the financial statements for the financial year ending December 31, 2017. (QSE)  CBQK to hold board meeting on January 24, 2018 to discuss financial statements ended December 31, 2017 – The Commercial Bank (CBQK) announced that its board of directors will hold its meeting on January 24, 2018 to discuss the financial results of the bank for the financial year ended December 31, 2017. (QSE)  GWCS to hold board meeting on January 14 to discuss financial results – Gulf Warehousing Company (GWCS) announced that its board of directors will hold a meeting on January 14, 2018, to approve the budget & discuss the proposal of profit distribution for the financial year ended 2017. (QSE)  QCFS to hold its EGM on January 10 – The Board of Directors of Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Company (QCFS) will hold its Extraordinary General Assembly Meeting (EGM) on January 10, 2018. In case the quorum is not meet, then the second meeting will be held on January 17, 2018. Agenda of the EGM is to discuss and approve the proposal for the amendment of the Articles of Association to comply with Corporate Governance Regulations and Legal Entities Listed on Primary Market issued by Qatar Financial Markets Authority decision No. 5 for the year 2016 . (QSE)  Ahli Bank to hold board meeting on January 17 – Ahli Bank announced that its board of directors will hold a meeting on January 17, 2018, to approve the budget & discuss the proposal of profit distribution for the financial year ended 2017. (QSE)  Qatar trade surplus increases 55% to QR12.84bn in November on exports expansion – A robust expansion of exports, especially to South Korea, helped Qatar report about 55% increase MoM in trade surplus to QR12.84bn in November this year. The surplus had increased about 33% on a yearly basis, according to the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. In absolute terms, South Korea, Japan, India, China and Singapore were among the largest export markets of Qatar; while imports mainly came from China, the US, India, Germany and Japan in November 2017. Faster expansion in the shipments of non-crude led Qatar’s total exports (valued freeon-board) reach QR21.77bn this November, showing a 16% yearly increase and 3.8% on a monthly basis. The country’s total exports of domestic products amounted to QR21.01bn in November this year, showing a 17% yearly jump and a 2.6% monthly lift. On a monthly basis, Qatar’s exports of non-crude increased 61% to QR2.29bn and petroleum gases by 3% to QR12.34bn; while those of crude declined 10.4% to QR3.7bn and other commodities by 8% to QR2.68bn. On a yearly basis, Qatar’s exports of non-crude more than doubled in November, those of crude rose 24%, other commodities by 13% and petroleum gases by 6%. Petroleum gases constituted 59% of total exports of domestic products in November 2017 compared to 65% in the year-ago period. The country’s re-exports expanded 51% MoM to QR0.77bn this November. Nevertheless, on a yearly basis, those had fallen 10%. Qatar’s total imports (valued at cost insurance and freight) were valued at QR8.94bn in November 2017, showing 2% and 30% shrinkage on yearly and monthly basis respectively. (GulfTimes.com)  Dlala Information Technology establishes a limited liability company – Dlala Information Technology, a subsidiary of Dlala Brokerage and Investment Holding Company incorporated Dlala Smart Information Technology with shareholding of 60%. The new company will deliver the service of software development and information technology consultancy service. (QSE)  Qatar expected to increase bond issues in 2018 – Qatar’s total local debt issued by the Qatar Central Bank (QCB) increased 66.3% to QR46.5bn in 2017 from QR27.9bn in 2016, according to data compiled by Mubasher Qatar. Quoting projections by global institutions, Mubasher stated that Qatar will increase its Dollar-denominated bond issues in 2018 to meet its budget deficit which is forecast to reach QR28.1bn next year. QCB’s bond issues increased 61% to QR18.47bn in 2017 from QR11.47bn a year ago, whereas Sukuk issues increased 170% to QR15.4bn from QR5.7bn in 2016. As at the end of October, government bonds issued amounted to QR70.2bn, of which QR16.55bn will mature in 2018, according to data by the QCB. Similarly, Sukuk issued until the end of October amounted to QR42.08bn, of which QR8.9bn will mature next year. QCB also increased treasury bills 16.9% YoY to QR12.6bn in 2017 from QR10.7bn, according to Mubasher’s data. (Qatar Tribune)  Aamal Company announces sale of treasury shares – Aamal Company announced that during the trading sessions that took place on December 3, 4, 19, 20, and 21, 2017, sum of 64,475 shares were sold from the total 157,066 treasury shares of Aamal Company owned by Gulf Rocks Company and approved for sale by Qatar Financial Markets Authority (QFMA). Accordingly, Gulf Rocks Company, the legal owner of the shares, shall continue to sell the remaining balance of 85,936 shares approved for sale by QFMA in accordance with Article (14) of the regulatory rules and procedures concerning listed companies buying and selling their shares. (QSE)  CBQK pushes UAB’s stake sale by 30 days – The Commercial Bank (CBQK) agreed to extend the exclusivity period by 30 days, to January 24, 2018, granted to Tabarak Investment (owned by Tabarak Commercial Investment One Person Company LLC) in respect of the potential purchase of CBQK’s stake in UAE-based United Arab Bank (UAB), a publicly-listed entity on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange. The stake in question represents 40% of UAB, CBQK stated earlier, but did not disclose the value of the deal. CBQK earlier announced that it had entered into a 90-day period of exclusivity with a 'third party purchaser' to negotiate the terms of a deal. It was later  Medicare Group holds its extraordinary general assembly meeting on January 7 – Medicare Group announced that its board of directors will hold its extraordinary general assembly meeting on January 7, 2018 and in case of non-quorum of the meeting, the second meeting will be held on January 10, 2018. (QSE) Page 2 of 7
3. revealed that Tabarak was in discussions with CBQK to purchase the bank 's stake. According to sources, CBQK's stake in UAB is worth around $217mn. (QSE, Qatar Tribune)  QGRI announces its marketing agreement with Ahli Bank – Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company (QGRI) announced its agreement with Ahli bank for marketing its insurance products. (QSE)  QTerminals CEO: Hamad Port to boost global trade – The Hamad Port offers opportunities to create cargo movement towards the upper Gulf, and the generally upward global trade, along with expansion in the regional economies, will keep GCC ports busy, according to QTerminals’ CEO, Neville Bissett. QTerminals is a joint venture between Qatar Ports Management Company (Mwani) and Milaha to manage the Hamad Port, which is set to become a global maritime hub. The proposed maritime strategy of Qatar comes in the wake of an economic and political blockade. Ever since Qatar has steadfastly established maritime lines with Oman, Turkey and India, and is looking towards other ports. The new routes include additional services from China, the Far East and Bangladesh, as well as enhancement of services from established routes including India, Pakistan, Oman, and the Mediterranean. More than 16% of the world’s container traffic flows between Europe and Asia, allowing the GCC ports to capitalize on the thriving global shipping business, a study by A T Kearney stated, adding demand for international trade coupled with the existing global ports network is another factor in the Gulf’s marine transport boom. (Gulf-Times.com)  GAC: Qatar increases its direct imports of strategic goods to 97% in November – Qatar increased its direct imports of strategic goods from around the world to 97% in November compared to 82.8% in May, achieving great success in opening up to international markets to meet the country’s need for goods of high quality at competitive prices, according to General Authority of Customs’ (GAC) Chairman, Ahmed Bin Abdullah Al Jamal. Al Jamal said this reflects Qatar’s ability to tackle shortage of goods and meet the country’s requirements in coordination with importers, which led to diversifying sources of high quality imports at suitable prices. In the past months the GAC has strengthened its staff at seaports and airports to ensure that the goods, especially the perishable variety, are cleared rapidly. Al Jamal added because of the unjust siege the GAC facilitated faster customs procedures, which helped local companies diversify the sources of direct imports. (Gulf-Times.com)  Milaha Shipyard repairs over 7,000 vessels – Milaha Shipyard emerged as one of the leading shipyards in the region. The Shipyard has serviced and repaired over 7,000 vessels of various types so far, showing Qatar’s growing role in global maritime sector. The Shipyard is one of the oldest and most active in the region. It receives vessels from both Qatari and foreign customers, and provides repair and maintenance services to a wide range of vessels. Over the past about 40 years the Yard has handled a wide variety of vessels such as offshore vessels, cargo vessels, passenger ferries, yachts, dhows, naval & coast guard vessels. The Shipyard covers a space of 150,000 sqm and strategically located close to the new Hamad Port. Its continuously growing client list includes local, regional & international shipping companies. (Peninsula Qatar)  BRES signs construction contract for new labor city – Barwa Real Estate Company (BRES) signed QR1.295bn contract with Insha Company to build a new labor city on Salwa Road. The contract involved construction duration of 12 months, stated in a statement. The project comes as part of the Qatari government’s efforts to improve the housing standards of workers in Qatar and meet the needs of the local market in line with the objectives of Qatar National Vision 2030 and the country’s preparations for hosting the 2022 World Cup, through developing a sustainable residential environment in terms of quality and security and providing all required services and facilities. (Gulf-Times.com)  Qatar banks’ assets grow by 10.9% to QR1.33tn – Banks’ assets in Qatar rose by QR14bn to QR1,332.7bn in November, compared to QR1,318.7bn in October, 10.9% jump from a year ago. Deposits from government and public sector increased by QR9.6bn to QR308bn. Government deposits recorded QR92.4bn in November, while the deposits of government institutions settled at QR186.6bn. The deposits of semi-government institutions, in which government share is less than 100% and more than 50%, settled at QR32.1bn. On the other hand, the total loans of the government and public sector increased by QR7.5bn to reach QR350.9bn, The Group Securities noted in its review of the banks’ consolidated balance sheets for the month of November 2017. A breakdown shows government deposits stood at QR184.5bn in November, up by QR7.1bn and government institutions at QR146.2bn, an increase of QR0.5bn. The semi-governmental institutions’ deposits stood at QR20.2bn, a drop of QR0.2bn. In addition, figures suggest that the balance of government bonds and bills increased by QR1.9bn to QR142.5bn. The total domestic public debt increased by QR9bn to QR493bn. The total domestic private sector deposits at local banks increased by QR0.8bn to QR348.3bn, by the end of November, which is QR4.6bn higher than a year ago in November 2016, this translates to an annual growth rate of 1.3%. (Peninsula Qatar)  Foreign deposit outflow from Qatari banks slows further in November – Foreign customers’ deposits at banks in Qatar fell by just QR2.8bn from the previous month to QR134.9bn. An outflow of foreign deposits from Qatari banks slowed further in November as the impact of an economic boycott imposed by other Arab states continued to diminish, data from Qatar Central Bank showed. Banks and investors from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt began pulling deposits and other funds out of Qatar in June, when those four countries cut diplomatic and trade ties with Qatar but in November, foreign customers’ deposits at banks in Qatar fell by just QR2.8bn from the previous month to QR134.9bn, the data showed. That was the smallest decline since the dispute erupted and compared to a drop of QR5.1bn in October; in June, deposits shrank by QR14bn. Bankers say the vast majority of the four countries’ deposits in Qatar have now been pulled out, leaving little money left to withdraw. (Zawya) Page 3 of 7
4. Qatar Stock Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners 0 .0% 30.0% 24.3% -3.0% 20.0% 10.1% 10.0% 8.6% 8.6% -3.1% -2.7% -2.6% Dlala Holding Masraf Al Rayan -5.4% -6.0% 4.1% -7.1% 0.0% Al Ahli Bank Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance Al Khaliji Qatar First Bank Investment Holding group -9.0% Qatar Islamic Insurance Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Ooredoo Qatari Investors Group Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) 480.0 21.0 431.3 17.0 320.0 14.0 10.3 160.0 7.0 109.9 76.2 63.3 Qatar First Bank Vodafone Qatar Investment Masraf Al Rayan Holding group Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) 11.97% 11.25% 0.0 Qatar First Bank Investment Holding group QNB Group United Development 46 8.33% 11.26% Non-Qatari 247 293 43.20% 47.90% 33.58% 32.51% 40% 20% Vodafone Qatar Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) 80% 60% 2.4 Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded 100% 3.3 61.6 0.0 QNB Group 9.3 (46) Qatari 1,014 968 0% Buy Sell Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) (200) - 200 400 Net Investment 600 Total Sold 800 1,000 1,200 Total Bought Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Page 4 of 7
5. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX Source : Bloomberg The Index ended the week slightly (1.11%) in the red compared to the week before; now it is at 8,526.00. There is a chance for a correction after the recent rally. The good news is that the MACD has been tilting up, which means the momentum remains positive. Our support level is situated around the 7,500 level. The 9,000 is the psychological number which acts as an immediate resistance level on the weekly chart. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal. Page 5 of 7
6. Source : Bloomberg Page 6 of 7
7. Contacts Saugata Sarkar , CFA, CAIA Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi , CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa Mohamed Abo Daff QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6589 PO Box 24025 mohd.abodaff@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 7 of 7