GCC Equity Market Monitor

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g February 5, 2017 2/5/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% Daily Return YTD Return YTD Return MTD Return Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait ‐ PI 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 1.6% ‐1.6% ‐0.8% 2.6% ‐1.8% 2.2% ‐2.2% ‐0.1% 19.1% Kuwait ‐ Wtd ‐0.7% 11.9% 0.5% 0.0% ‐0.5% ‐2.3% 0.2% ‐0.5% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Qatar Bahrain ‐0.2% 1.3% 0.9% 7.2% ‐0.3% 0.3%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Week Previous Week Turnover: RO 17.865 million (c. US$ 46.5 million) Figures In RO BUY SELL 14 831 613 14,831,613  11 685 950 11,685,950  3,145,663 3,145,663  GCC 255,196  2,006,256  (1,751,060) Arabs 129,140  95,212  33,928  2,649,131  4,077,661  (1,428,530) OMANIS OTHERS Value Leaders NET MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Bank Muscat Financial 3,882,151 21.73% Al Fajar Al Alamia Al Fajar Al Alamia Industrial 1 750 748 1,750,748 9 80% 9.80% National Bank of Oman Financial 1,498,771 8.39% Al Madina Takaful Insurance 1,080,181 6.05% Bank Dhofar Financial 1,024,971 5.74% Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,681,262  9.4 1.2 5.5% MSM 30 5,802.62 5,793.33 0.16% 0.46% 0.34% Financial 3,402,732  8.8 0.9 4.7% Financial 8,057.81 8,014.40 0.54% 1.38% 5.03% Industrial 1,000,480  15.6 1.4 5.1% Industrial 7,694.35 7,650.99 0.57% 1.36% 3.88% Services 2,952,817  10.1 1.8 6.4% Services 3,017.93 3,019.55 ‐0.05% ‐0.17% ‐1.33% MSM Shariah 2,780,501  10.5 1.7 6.1% 858.05 858.51 ‐0.05% 0.08% ‐1.26% MSM Shariah 2/5/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   MENA  % Chg %MTD %YTD   1.1 0.0 0.1 ‐0.2 0.6 2.4 3.7 ‐0.4 0.2 5.2 ‐1.7 13.1 ‐0.5 ‐0.4 ‐1.1 ‐1.1 ‐0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 ‐0.4 0.6 1.2 3.2 3.2 0.6 7.3 6.9 0.8 Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey 12,806.1 1.8 2,160.6 ‐0.2 5,500.8 0.2 25,741.0 0.6 521.2 0.2 88,389.5 1.1 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 122.5 0.0 S&P GCC (USD) 100.6 0.0 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return  1,035.5 0.0 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return  1,622.4 0.0 MSCI GCC MSCI GCC 479.5 0.0 MSCI Frontier  536.0 0.4 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 805.2 0.4 MSCI Arabian Index 523.2 0.1 Index  Closing   Americas  % Chg %MTD %YTD   S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,297.4 20,071.5 5,666.8 64,953.9 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.4 2.6 1.6 5.3 7.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.6 ‐0.8 1.5 0.0 ‐0.2 00 0.0 ‐0.6 0.1 1.6 ‐0.6 ‐1.0 21 2.1 ‐0.6 0.3 2.3 ‐1.0 5.1 61 6.1 1.2 2.3 3.3 %MTD %YTD %YTD  0.4 ‐0.1 0.1 0.2 ‐0.8 ‐0.3 ‐0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.2 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐2.3 2.5 3.2 3.9 1.2 3.9 2.6 1.1 0.0 0.9 6.5 1.0 ‐4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 Europe FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Asia Pacific Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing  % Chg %MTD %YTD  1,805.5 0.6 0.7 3.1 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,750.4 0.3 0.6 3.5 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,514.3 0.4 0.9 2.9 918.9 0.4 1.1 6.6 MSCI EM Index Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 552 2 552.2 00 0.0 ‐0.3 03 02 0.2 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 226.3 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐2.2 0.4 0.5 Commodity (Bloomberg)  Commodity  87.9 ‐0.5 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing 18,918.2 23,129.2 28 240 5 28,240.5 3,140.2 2,073.2 1,190.4 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD , 7,188.3 4,825.4 11,651.5 4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg In Comparison with USD 99.868 1.078 1.302 112.610 1.248 8.765 0.993 6.867 7.758 67.316 0.768 13343.000 3.697 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.305 3.641 0.377 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 ‐0.3 ‐0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %YTD  NYMEX Crude 53.8 0.5 1.9 ‐1.5 ICE Brent Crude 56.8 0.4 2.2 ‐1.2 Crude Oil, Oman  55.7 0.7 4.6 2.7 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.1 ‐3.9 ‐1.7 ‐16.9 155.4 1.4 0.2 ‐7.9 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,220.2 0.4 0.8 5.9 Silver Spot 17.5 0.1 ‐0.3 10.0 Platinum Spot  1,003.5 0.3 0.9 11.1 Palladium Spot  749.0 ‐1.3 ‐0.7 9.6 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 821 8 1,821.8 02 0.2 04 0.4 69 6.9 LME Copper‐Spot 5,763.8 ‐1.8 ‐3.8 4.4 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,793.8 ‐1.6 ‐2.1 9.2 LME Lead‐Spot 2,328.8 ‐0.5 ‐1.8 16.5 LME Nickel‐Spot 10 171 0 10,171.0 ‐1.6 16 27 2.7 21 2.1 Steel  620.0 US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  0.0 0.3 ‐1.4 Agriculture  C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  365 3 365.3 ‐0.6 06 15 1.5 38 3.8 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  430.3 ‐1.0 2.3 5.5 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  1,027.0 ‐1.0 0.2 2.3 Shipping  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  752 0 752.0 Closing %MTD %YTD 1,055.0 24.1 24.1 Benzene FOB Korea Spot 960.0 15.7 15.7 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 965.0 15.6 15.6 Benzene CFR India Spot 970.0 15.5 15.5 1.7 9.7 A Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  i (i USD/ MT) Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Index  ‐2 3 ‐2.3 ‐6 0 ‐6.0 ‐21 7 ‐21.7 Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  508.0 Naphtha C&F Japan  527.5 2.9 6.2 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 504.0 0.7 3.7 p g p p Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  57.2 3.1 6.5 3.8 3.8 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  960.0 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,105.0 0.0 0.0 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,100.0 0.0 0.0 885 0 885.0 23 2.3 23 2.3 2.9 2.9 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 895.0 2EH CFR South East Asia 915.0 2.8 2.8 DOP CFR Far East Asia 975.0 ‐1.0 ‐1.0 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  10,280.0 ‐0.2 3.3 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 1,140.0 ‐2.6 ‐2.6 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,170.0 0.0 0.0 y p Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,160.0 , 2.7 2.7 9.0 9.0 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  1,690.0 UREA Cornbelt 300.0 9.1 9.1 UREA Middle East 282.0 15.1 15.1 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 374 1 374.1 ‐3.0 30 84 8.4 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 2/5/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Sohar Refinery Improvement Project 99 % complete (Source: Oman Observer)  Orpic has announced the successful completion of a trio of major components at the heart of its multi‐billion dollar upgrade of its refinery at Sohar. With the completion of the Crude Distillation, Vacuum Distillation and Kero‐Merox units, the Sohar Refinery Improvement Project (SRIP) is just months away from being brought on stream a milestone that will see the plant’s refining output boosted by around 70%.  The impending launch of the upgraded refinery envisaged before the end of the first quarter of this year is set to bring to a successful conclusion a three‐year‐long expansion and modernisation programme involving a total investment of around $2.1 billion.  When fully operational with an enhanced refining capacity of 187,000 barrels per stream day (up from an existing capacity of 116,000 bpsd), the upgraded facility will contribute to hefty increases in the output of key fuels and petroleum byproducts.  Gasoline output is projected to grow from 5,309 metric tonnes per day (mtpd) to 7,130 mtpd. Jet fuel (A1) is expected to double to 2,239 mtpd, up from 1,133 mtpd currently. Gas oil production is also projected to more than double to 9,859 mtpd, from 4,089 mtpd.  Sizeable output increases are also envisaged in polypropylene (from 798 mptd to 1,246 mtpd), and LPG (from 779 mtpd to 1,504 mtpd). pg will help p fullyy meet the feedstock requirements q of the adjoining j gp polypropylene yp py plant, and a substantial p p proportion p of the raw The upgrade material needs of the aromatics plant.  A dedicated bitumen unit integrated with the expanded refinery will allow for the domestic production of bitumen for the first time. Italian firm to supply pp y equipment q p for Oman salt refineryy p project j ((Source: Oman Observer))  Manfredini & Schianchi Srl says it has been contracted by an Omani company to undertake the construction of a 135,000 tonnes per annum sea salt production plant at Bantoot near Duqm.  Al Ghalbi International Engineering & Contracting LLC (GIE) is building the multimillion dollar plant, which will harvest salt from seawater for industrial and consumer uses. The facility, due to be come into operational in the third quarter of this year  The contract entails the supply and installation of a turnkey refinery plant with an output of 40 tonnes per hour of salt with a final purity of 99.8%. Key components include a washing system based on the company’s proprietary technology, centrifuging system, drying line, salt grading system, crushing mill and packaging system. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Areej Vegetable Oil and Derivatives Co ‐ Announcement of Dividends (Source: MSM)  Board of Areej Vegetable Oils & Derivatives (SAOG) has approved the financials and also announced cash dividends of 20% (RO 0.200 per  share) for the year 2016.  At the current levels, the stock provides dividend yield of 4.9% levels. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Global risk on rally to support, Dividend announcements to remain as short term triggers … Duringg the p previous tradingg week,, we saw most of the GCC markets endingg on a negative g note amid mixed set of ongoing g g earnings g season and also on traders profit booking trend. UAE (ADX) and Qatar closed 3.8% lower for the week. While Oman and Bahrain ended higher by 0.9% WTD and 0.6% WTD respectively. We anticipate the local and the regional markets to open on a flattish note and reveal sideways movement for the week. We do expect the upcoming dividends season to bring in buying interest from the regional institutions. We also see the continued risk on rally in the global equities to remain as triggers for the GCC markets over the short to medium term. term We see MSM index support around 5,760 5 760 points and resistance is seen at 5,840 5 840 levels. levels GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE  News Emaar Malls reports 2016 results (Source: Trade Arabia)  Emaar Malls has recorded a net profit of Dh1.874 billion for 2016, up 13% compared to Dh1.6 the previous year. Net profit for Q4 grew 4% to Dh452 million from Dh435 million for the same period in 20115.  The developer also saw its revenue grow 8% to hit Dh3.2 billion in 2016. The Dubai Mall too set a similar footfall level of 80 million visitors for three h consecutive years despite d ongoing expansion in and d around d the h mall. ll  The gross leasable area (GLA) occupancy levels averaged 96% during 2016. Residential rents, sales prices in Dubai could rise from mid‐2017 (Source: Gulf Business)  Residential rents and sales prices in Dubai, which continued to drop in 2016, are expected to begin increasing in mid‐2017, according to consultancy Knight Frank.  Sales prices in the mainstream market dropped 5% in 2016 compared to 7% in 2015, while prices in the prime residential market declined 4% in i 2016 versus 5% in i 2015. 2015 Nakheel reports 2016 results (Source: Gulf Business)  Nakheel announced a net profit of Dhs4.96bn in 2016 an 13% increase compared to Dhs4.38bn in 2015 and the highest‐ever recorded by the company. The Th results l follow f ll improved i d year‐on‐year performances f b Nakheel’s by N kh l’ retail, il hospitality h i li and d residential id i l leasing l i businesses. b i  Retail revenues grew by more than 70% in 2016 compared to 2015, while revenues from Nakheel’s hospitality business jumped by 50% year‐on‐year.  Nakheel Malls expanded its operating portfolio by opening its phase one extension at Ibn Battuta Mall, Mall neighbourhood Pavilions at International City and Al Furjan and the Club Vista Mare restaurant plaza on Palm Jumeirah.  These added almost 400,000 sq ft of net leasable area to previously‐existing retail assets, bringing the total operational leasable space to 4.3 million sq ft by the year‐end. Nakheel is currently working on other projects to increase its total leasable space to 17 million sq ft. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC News Qatar residential rents data – Q4 2016 (Source: Trade Arabia)  The residential rents across Qatar fell by an average of between 5 and 10% in 2016, thanks to a spurt in good quality ‘affordable’  accommodation in peripheral suburbs, according to a leading regional real estate firm.  On the 2017 outlook, the industry expert said completion of additional residential property this year will help in relieving the upward pressure  on rents, which has been experienced in recent years. h hh b d  On the office sector, DTZ said the prime office rents fell by an average of between 10 and 15% in 2016, due to lower demand and an  increase in new supply. An increase in demand witnessed in Q4 will need to be maintained to avoid market oversupply levels in 2017. Tadawul d l sets rules l for f individuals’ i di id l ’ investment i i parallel in ll l market k (Source: Argaam)  Individuals can indirectly invest in the Nomu Parallel Market through investment funds or private portfolios managed by brokerage firms  authorized by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), as per news sources quoting the head of listing at Saudi Stock Exchange.  Retail investors can open a direct investment account at the R il i di i h Depository D i C Center if they execute a minimum of ten transactions at a total of SAR  if h i i f i l f SAR 40 million on a quarterly basis.   Meanwhile, qualified investors will have to pass the General Securities Qualification Examination (CME‐1), and their average portfolio size  should exceed SAR 10 billion annually.   Saudi Arabia’s Nomu Parallel Market which will be launched on Feb. 26 will open new investment opportunities to all types of companies,  including small and medium enterprises.  Companies will be permitted to float minimum 20% of capital and have 50 public shareholders. Saudi banks’ liquidity squeeze to moderate in 2017: Moody’s (Source: Argaam)  Saudi banks’ liquidity pressures will moderate in 2017 compared with 2016, primarily as a result of subdued credit growth, Moody’s said in a  note.  Lower credit growth, however, will reduce the profits of banks in the kingdom.   The fall of the three‐month Saudi Interbank Offered Rate (SAIBOR) below 2% 30 is credit‐positive for Saudi banks, implying that liquidity  pressures have eased since Q3 2016 pressures have eased since Q3 2016. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 2/5/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11