GCC Equity Market Monitor - 3 April

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g April 3, 2017 4/3/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0 0% ‐5.0% ‐10 0% ‐10.0% Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait ‐ PI ‐0.2% ‐4.2% ‐0.2% ‐3.1% 0.3% ‐1.1% 0.1% ‐2.1% ‐0.1% 22.2% Kuwait  ‐ Wtd 0.5% 9.3% ‐0.2% ‐0.2% 0.3% 0.1% ‐0.1% 0.5% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Qatar Bahrain 0.1% ‐0.4% ‐0.7% 10.3% 0.1% ‐0.7%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 1.718 million (c. US$ 4.5 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Bank Muscat Banking 353,041 20.6% BUY SELL NET 1,514,691 1,514,691  1,418,922 1,418,922  95,769 95,769  Al Madina Investment Al Madina Investment Invs/Hldg 185 361 185,361 10 8% 10.8% GCC 118,297  122,026  (3,729) Al Anwar Holding Invs/Hldg 154,861 9.0% Arabs 24,187  21,757  2,430  Oman Fisheries Industry 154,766 9.0% OTHERS 60,633  155,104  (94,471) Insurance 123,845 7.2% OMANIS Al Madina Takaful MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,368,399 10.1 1.1 5.8% MSM 30 5,537.74 5,550.60 ‐0.23% ‐0.23% ‐4.24% Financial 3,236,079 8.5 0.9 5.2% Financial 7,870.54 7,834.31 0.46% 0.46% 2.59% Industrial 993,111 20.0 1.4 4.8% Industrial 7,819.41 7,800.85 0.24% 0.24% 5.56% Services 2,804,184 11.9 1.7 6.5% Services 2,879.35 2,885.54 ‐0.21% ‐0.21% ‐5.87% MSM Shariah 2,662,291 10.6 1.6 6.2% 840.51 843.51 ‐0.36% ‐0.36% ‐3.28% MSM Shariah 4/3/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   MENA  % Chg %MTD %YTD   ‐0.6 ‐0.2 0.0 ‐4.6 0.2 0.0 4.6 3.5 1.0 ‐2.4 1.8 13.8 ‐0.2 ‐0.1 0.0 ‐0.4 ‐0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 ‐0.2 ‐1.2 ‐0.9 1.4 4.4 ‐1.2 1.2 7.6 9.3 ‐1.2 Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey 12,912.3 ‐0.6 2,246.3 ‐0.2 5,543.1 0.0 23,882.6 ‐0.6 539.7 0.2 88,947.4 ‐0.4 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 120.2 ‐0.2 S&P GCC (USD) 98.6 ‐0.1 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return  1,017.5 0.0 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return  1,641.0 0.0 MSCI GCC MSCI GCC 470.9 ‐0.2 0.2 MSCI Frontier  537.1 ‐0.1 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 823.6 ‐0.1 MSCI Arabian Index 513.0 ‐0.2 Index  Closing   Americas  % Chg %MTD %YTD   S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,362.7 20,663.2 5,911.7 64,984.1 ‐0.2 ‐0.3 0.0 ‐0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 4.6 9.8 7.9 ‐0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 5.4 7.2 0.6 0.3 05 0.5 0.4 0.2 ‐2.1 0.6 0.3 05 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 ‐0.5 10.0 11 8 11.8 3.8 6.8 ‐3.3 %MTD %YTD %YTD  0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0 ‐1.8 1.5 0.9 5.0 1.7 1.8 1.8 0.8 ‐0.2 4.7 5.5 1.2 ‐3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 Europe FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Asia Pacific Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing  % Chg %MTD %YTD  1,853.7 ‐0.3 0.0 5.9 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,793.3 ‐0.5 2.1 6.1 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,570.1 ‐0.2 3.6 6.7 958.4 ‐1.1 0.0 11.1 MSCI EM Index Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 561 6 561.6 04 0.4 02 0.2 19 1.9 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 227.9 ‐0.1 ‐0.6 ‐1.5 0.1 ‐2.4 Commodity (Bloomberg)  Commodity  85.5 0.1 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing 19,017.7 24,191.2 29 777 4 29,777.4 3,222.5 2,164.7 1,113.8 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD , 7,322.9 5,122.5 12,312.9 4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg In Comparison with USD 100.410 1.068 1.332 111.440 1.255 8.947 1.001 6.887 7.771 64.869 0.761 13317.000 3.631 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.305 3.641 0.377 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %YTD  NYMEX Crude 50.5 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐9.8 ICE Brent Crude 53.4 ‐0.2 ‐0.2 ‐8.6 Crude Oil, Oman  52.3 0.9 0.9 ‐3.6 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.2 1.2 1.2 ‐8.9 170.0 ‐0.2 ‐0.2 ‐9.1 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,247.6 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 8.3 Silver Spot 18.2 ‐0.3 ‐0.3 14.4 Platinum Spot  953.7 0.3 0.3 5.6 Palladium Spot  800.1 0.2 0.2 17.0 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 952 3 1,952.3 ‐0.5 05 00 0.0 14 6 14.6 LME Copper‐Spot 5,816.0 ‐2.1 0.0 5.3 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,750.3 ‐3.6 0.0 7.5 LME Lead‐Spot 2,330.5 ‐0.6 0.0 16.6 LME Nickel‐Spot 9 962 5 9,962.5 ‐1.1 11 00 0.0 00 0.0 Steel  630.0 US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  0.0 0.0 %YTD Benzene FOB Korea Spot 725.0 ‐24.9 ‐12.7 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 730.0 ‐24.7 ‐12.6 Benzene CFR India Spot 735.0 ‐24.6 ‐12.5 468.6 2.0 1.2 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  Naphtha C&F Japan  469.0 ‐7.4 ‐5.5 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 468.6 ‐4.5 ‐3.6 p g p p Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  50.8 ‐7.7 ‐5.4 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  1,190.0 3.5 28.7 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,095.0 ‐15.4 ‐0.9 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,090.0 ‐15.5 ‐0.9 840 0 840.0 ‐14.3 14 3 ‐2.9 29 7.7 20.7 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 1,050.0 2EH CFR South East Asia 1,070.0 7.5 20.2 DOP CFR Far East Asia 1,005.0 ‐1.0 2.0 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  0.0 ‐7.6 ‐5.0 ‐2.6 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,160.0 ‐4.9 ‐0.9 y p Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,190.0 , 0.9 5.3 1,660.0 ‐3.2 7.1 UREA Cornbelt 250.0 ‐13.8 ‐9.1 UREA Middle East 212.0 ‐21.5 ‐13.5 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 370 4 370.4 ‐2.3 23 73 7.3 27 2.7 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  430.8 1.0 1.0 2.4 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  946.5 ‐6.5 Shipping  00 0.0 ‐12.4 9,195.0 08 0.8 ‐2 0 ‐2.0 ‐26.6 1,140.0 08 0.8 0.1 745.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 367 0 367.0 0.1 Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  3.3 C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  1 297 0 1,297.0 %MTD LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  Agriculture  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  Closing A Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  i (i USD/ MT) Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Index  35 0 35.0 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 4/3/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Oman Banking Sector Data ‐ Jan 2017 (Source: CBO, GBCM Research) Key Banking Sector Parameters – End Jan 2017 Total Credit‐ Conventional Total Islamic Financing  Combined‐ Total Credit & Islamic Fin. Jan 2017 Addition ‐ In absolute terms Decline of RO 120 million Increase of RO 49 million Decline of RO 71 million % YoY 6.2% 36.1% 8.9% % MoM ‐0.6% 2.0% ‐0.3% Total Private Sector Credit‐ Conventional Total Islamic Financing‐ Private Sector  Combined‐ Total Private Sector Credit & Islamic  Increase of RO 180 million Increase of RO 47 million Increase of RO 227 million 8.8% 27.6% 10.6% 1.0% 2.1% 1.1% Total Assets‐ Conventional Total Assets‐ Islamic Financing  Combined‐ Total Assets Increase of RO 153 million Increase of RO 116 million Increase of RO 246 million ‐3.0% 39.1% 0.0% 0.6% 3.8% 0.8% Total Deposits‐ Conventional Total Deposits‐ Shariah Combined‐ Total Deposits  Increase of RO 166 million Increase of RO 55 million Increase of RO 221 million 3.4% 44.9% 6.7% 0.9% 2.5% 1.1% Total Govt. Deposits‐ Conventional Total Govt. Deposits‐ Shariah Combined‐ Total Govt. Deposits  Increase of RO 36 million Decline of RO 23 million Increase of RO 14 million 5.8% 82.4% 13.9% 0.7% ‐2.2% 0.2% Money Supply (M1) Money Supply (M2) Decline of RO 16 million Increase of RO 163 million ‐6.8% 2.6% ‐0.3% 1.1% General Provisioning‐ Conventional General Provisioning‐ Shariah Combined‐ General Provisioning Decline of RO 1 million Increase of RO 0.4 million Decline of RO 0.6 million 6.9% 30.4% 9.1% ‐0.4% 1.3% ‐0.2% Specific Provisioning‐ Conventional Specific Provisioning‐ Shariah Combined‐ Specific Provisioning Increase of RO 10 million Decline of RO 0.5 million Increase of RO 9.5 million 7.5% 41.9% 7.7% 2.3% ‐10.2% 2.1% GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Oman Banking Sector Data ‐ Jan 2017 (Source: CBO, GBCM Research)  End Jan 2017, total conventional banking assets has declined ‐3% YoY and the same has increased 0.6% MoM. Conventional bank total credit declined by 0.6% MoM, while the deposits grew by 0.9% MoM.  In terms of Money supply, M1 declined ‐6.8% YoY and ‐0.3% MoM; While M2 increased by 2.6% YoY and +1.1% MoM.  End Jan 2017, the Conventional banks credit to deposit ratio improved to 106.3% levels as compared to 107.9% levels as at end of 2016, While the total demand deposits increased to c. 30.1% of the total private sector deposits in the conventional banks as compared to 29.5% at end 2016. While, the provisions and reserve interest to total credit remain at 3.4% levels similar levels were seen since 2015.  p ((conventional banks)) increased byy 2.5% duringg Jan 2017, while the savings g deposits p declined byy 0.4% YoY MoM and Total demand deposits the higher cost time deposits increased by 0.5% MoM. We saw addition in low cost demand deposits during the first month of the year.  The growth in the Oman Islamic banking segment continued to remain strong during 2017 with the Islamic financing assets increasing 36% YoY (on low base) and Shariah Deposits revealing growth of 45% YoY. The Islamic financing to Shariah deposits ratio for the Islamic Banks and windows is c. 111.2% levels (Jan 2017).  End Jan 2017, The combined credit to deposit ratio (Conventional + Islamic banks and windows) improved to 106.8% levels as against 108.4% levels seen at end 2016, revealing slightly improved liquidity scenario.  The funding costs increased marginally during the period, the Rial Omani (RO) time deposits rate stood at 3.506% levels (end Jan 2017), revealing an increase of 0.117% during the month. While the RO deposit costs increased to 1.582% levels (end Jan 2017), an increase of 0.089% MoM.  The RO lending rates increased to 5.104% levels (end Jan 2017), increase of 0.020% MoM, relatively lower level of increase as against the increase in funding costs. This points out to the margin pressure prevailing among the local banks. Added, the overnight domestic i inter‐bank b k lending l di rate lowered l d to 0.370% % levels l l in i Jan 2017 as against i 0.47% % in i Dec 2016.  In terms of provisioning, we have seen higher specific provisions during Jan 2017 amid economic slowdown. As per the CBO data, the combined specific provision (Conventional and Islamic Banks and windows) increased 7.7% YoY and 2.1% MoM. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. Oman News Oman LNG ’s production hits 8.5 million tonnes (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman LNG said it produced 8.5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2016, against a production of 7.91 million tonnes in the previous year and an installed capacity of 10.4 million tonnes per annum. This shows a capacity utilisation of 73.5%.  The company’s NGLs (natural gas liquids) production stood at 254,029 tonnes last year, Oman LNG said in its latest annual report.  As many as 133 cargoes of LNG were loaded from the company’s plant in Sur last year, which included 91 from Oman LNG and 42 from Qalhat LNG. Further, 39 natural gas liquids (NGLs) cargoes were also lifted in 2016, the annual report noted.  Apart from regular long term customers, the company has delivered two spot cargoes of LNG to two regional destinations—Kuwait and p y had delivered 2,000 , cargoes g of LNG to the world. Jordan ‐ last yyear. In fact,, byy Julyy 2016,, the company  However, a fall in oil prices resulted in a drop in Oman LNG’s net profit and revenue in 2016.  The company’s total revenue stood lower at $1,925 million in 2016, down from $2,612 million for the previous year, while net income after tax dropped to $566 million from $965 million during the period under review, according to the annual report. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Stock specific buying interest to prevail, MSM support maintained at 5,510 levels… During the previous trading session, we saw all the GCC markets traded range bound along with relatively dull investor participation. MSM ended lower by 0.2% 0 2% with the last leg of dividend adjustments. adjustments We expect the local and the regional equities to open on a positive note for the day and to see stock specific buying interest coming from the institutions amid stable global cues and also the oil prices. We do expect MSM to see value buying in certain stocks ahead of the earnings season along with the anticipation of dividend reinvestment albeit at lower levels. On the technical side, MSM Index would see strong support closer to 5,510 points. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. UAE  News FGB, NBAD merger creates First Abu Dhabi Bank (Source: Trade Arabia)  Following the legal completion of the merger between First Gulf Bank (FGB) and National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) on April 1, the  combined bank will be now known as First Abu Dhabi Bank.  The merged bank began trading on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) today under ticker symbol NBAD.  Reflecting the new bank’s deep roots and experience in the region, its board of directors has announced that the combined bank will be  named “First Abu Dhabi Bank”, after attaining regulatory approvals and following the General Assembly Meeting that will be held at a later  stage to approve the name.  The new bank is the UAE’s largest bank and one of the largest in the Mena region with total assets in excess of Dh670 billion ($180 billion).  h b ki h ’ l b k d f h l i h i ih l i f h6 0 billi ($ 80 billi ) GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. GCC News Merger of three Qatari banks to take six months (Source: Gulf Business)  The merger of Qatari banks Masraf Al Rayan, Barwa Bank and International Bank of Qatar will take six months to complete, as per news  sources quoting the Chairman of Masraf Al Rayan.  The new bank, which would be run in compliance with Islamic banking principles, would have assets worth more than QAR160bn ($44bn).  The merger will finish within six months and there will be a lot of synergy between the three banks. h ll f h h h d h ll b l f b h h b k  Masraf Al Rayan, an Islamic lender, has appointed KPMG and PricewaterhouseCoopers as merger advisers, along with law firm Allen & Overy as legal adviser, adding that Barwa Bank and International Bank of Qatar had also chosen advisors. Saudi Aramco inks MoUs with UAE’s ADNOC, Masdar (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) signed two memoranda of understanding (MoUs) with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company  (ADNOC) and Masdar, it said in a statement.  Under the MoU with ADNOC, both companies will collaborate on identifying technologies that could improve operational performance and  efficiency in the oil and gas sector.  Meanwhile, Aramco will work with Abu Dhabi‐based Masdar on sustainable development and renewable energy under the second  agreement, the statement said. h id Shareholders at Qatar's Masraf Al Rayan approve sukuk issuance for up to $2 billion (Source: Reuters)  The shareholders of Qatar's Masraf Al Rayan, an Islamic lender, approved the issuance of sukuk worth up to $2 billion to meet the bank's  liquidity needs.  The Gulf state's second largest lender by market value appointed banks in January to handle a debut sukuk issue of around $500 million GBCM Morning Briefing 11
12. GCC News Al ‐Babtain to set up wind power company (Source: Argaam)  Al‐Babtain Power & Telecommunication Co.’s board of directors has agreed to set up a fully owned wind power company in Riyadh with a capital of SAR 5 million. The set‐up would be subject to regulatory approvals and it is expected to be completed during Q2 2017.  The new entity would be a limited liability company and there are no related parties involved, it added. Farm Superstores secures SAR 105 million loan from NBK (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Marketing Co. (Farm Superstores) has signed a credit facilities agreement worth SAR 105 million with National Bank of Kuwait (NBK), the company said. The credit facility will go towards repaying capital expenditures of new branches and financing working capital.  The tenure of the loans, which were guaranteed by a promissory note, starts from March 23, 2017 until March 31, 2018. GBCM Morning Briefing 12
13. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 4/3/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 13