MENA Daily Fixed Income Report - 23 February

Transcription

1. MENA Daily Fixed Income Report – 23 February 2021 Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” News Updates Saudi Inflation Still Fueled by VAT Hike, Central Bank Says – Saudi GCC Sovereign Yields Sovereign Ratings inflation is expected to rise during the first quarter compared to the same period the previous year due to the residual effect of an increase in value- Abu Dhabi 2025 0.87 Price ∆ (YTD %) -0.57 Abu Dhabi 2030 1.90 added tax but should be little changed on the previous quarter, the Abu Dhabi 2050 3.15 kingdom’s central bank said on Monday. Consumer prices rose an annual Bahrain 2026 5.6% in the last three months of 2020. The world’s largest crude exporter Bahrain 2030 tripled VAT to 15% in July as it endured twin economic shocks from the Bahrain spread of the coronavirus pandemic and oil market turmoil. Officials later said the decision might be reviewed once the crisis is over. The VAT rise Dubai Kuwait 2022 0.43 -0.63 Qatar 2030 1.98 -3.00 was among a series of measures taken by Saudi Arabia last year to limit Kuwait 2027 1.39 -1.88 Qatar 2050 3.26 -7.49 Sovereigns KSA 2025 1.22 Price ∆ (YTD %) -0.41 -2.61 KSA 2030 2.27 -2.10 KSA A1 A-u A -7.29 KSA 2050 3.65 -6.33 UAE Aa2 NR AA- 3.38 -0.72 Oman 2025 3.70 1.50 AA AA -3.15 Oman 2029 5.37 0.29 Abu Dhabi Aa2 5.19 Qatar Aa3 AA- AA- 2047 6.61 -6.12 Oman 2048 7.02 -3.38 2029 2.52 -0.06 Qatar 2025 0.91 -0.54 Bahrain B2 B+ B+ Oman Ba3 B+ BB- Egypt B2 B B+ Lebanon C SD RD Jordan B1 B+ BB- Turkey B2 B+u BB- Tunisia B2 NR Maturity Yield % Sovereigns Maturity Yield % the economic damage caused by the decline in crude oil prices. Inflation Bonds and Sukuk Indices Yield % Duration (yrs) 1D ∆ (%) YTD ∆ (%) Bloomberg GCC FI Index 2.59 8.08 -0.40 -1.45 S&P MENA Bond and Sukuk Index 2.17 NA -0.37 -1.86 3.65 6.80 -0.48 -1.72 1.02 7.42 0.00 -1.95 is expected to stabilize on an annual basis in the second half of 2021 as Index Name the base effects of the VAT increase wear off. (Source: Bloomberg) Saudi Wealth Fund’s Spending Programs Will Boost Banks, S&P Bloomberg Emerging Markets USD Index Says – Saudi Arabia’s banks are expected to benefit from the sovereign wealth fund’s spending spree this year, although low interest rates and a Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index rollback of central bank support may weigh on profits, S&P Global Ratings Interbank Rates (%) said. “Mortgage origination will remain buoyant and corporate lending is likely to pick up as Public Investment Fund programs create business for KIBOR contractors,” the ratings agency said in a report. The sovereign investor is SAIBOR a key lever for the kingdom’s efforts to revive growth after what may be BHIBOR QATAR the deepest recession the world’s largest crude exporter has experienced AEIBOR since 1987. Handed $40 billion last year to buy global stocks, the PIF EURIBOR plans to plow the same amount into the domestic economy this year and LIBOR again in 2022. (Source: Bloomberg) USD Swap Rates Commercial Bank of Qatar Hires Advisers for Debt Sale – Commercial Yield % Bank of Qatar mandated Credit Suisse as sole global coordinator, and 1-Year Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JPMorgan and QNB 2-Year 5-Year Capital as joint lead managers and bookrunners to organize a global 7-Year investor call at 10:00AM UKT/1:00PM Qatar/6:00PM HKT on Feb. 22, and 10-Year a series of fixed-income investor calls commenced on Feb. 22. An unrated 30-Year US$ Benchmark fixed rate resettable RegS only Registered Perpetual 0.1772 0.2056 0.7242 1.0860 1.4490 1.9480 Commercial Bank of Qatar is rated A3 (stable) by Moody’s, BBB+ (stable) 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year 6 Months 23/2/2021 31/12/2020 1.7500 1.6875 0.8500 0.8700 2.2667 2.5333 1.1130 1.1960 0.5385 0.4908 -0.5170 -0.5260 0.1950 0.2576 Currencies 1D ∆ (bps) 0.02 -0.28 -0.74 -0.17 -0.07 0.41 YTD ∆ (%) -7.9 3.9 68.4 65.9 56.6 38.9 USD KWD SAR BHD QAR OMR AED US Treasuries Additional Tier 1 Non-Call 5 year Capital Securities offering followed, subject to market conditions and FCA/ICMA stabilization applies. 2-Year by S&P and A (stable) by Fitch. (Source: Bloomberg) 3 Months 23/2/2021 31/12/2020 1.5000 1.4375 0.8038 0.8175 2.0333 2.2500 1.0142 1.1206 0.3893 0.5125 -0.5430 -0.5450 0.1753 0.2384 0.3019 3.7505 0.3771 3.6420 0.3850 3.6731 Commodities 1D ∆ (bps) 0.0994 0.0027 0.0000 -0.0027 0.0000 0.0000 YTD ∆ (%) 0.46 0.04 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.00 UK Guilts Yield % 0.11 0.60 1.37 2.18 1D ∆ (%) 0.00 0.00 0.01 -0.96 Yield % 0.03 0.26 0.67 1.26 12 Months 23/2/2021 31/12/2020 1.9375 1.9375 0.9225 0.9413 2.5700 2.6833 1.2709 1.3636 0.5609 0.6538 -0.4940 -0.4990 0.2865 0.3419 USD Gold Silver Copper Nat. Gas Aluminum Crude Oil 1,809.10 28.18 419.35 2.96 2,147.75 66.40 YTD ∆ (%) -4.76 6.43 19.00 17.02 8.61 28.14 German Bunds 1D ∆ (%) 0.03 0.08 0.22 -1.48 Yield % -0.65 -0.69 -0.45 0.21 1D ∆ (%) 0.00 0.05 0.30 -1.55 Moody’s S&P Kuwait A1 AA- Fitch AA B Morocco Ba1 BBB- BB+ US Aaa AA+u AAA UK Aa3 AAu AA- China A1 A+ A+ USD 5Yr CDS 23-Feb 2021 31-Dec 2020 Kuwait 41.12 40.69 KSA 61.82 63.77 Abu Dhabi 41.90 36.03 Dubai 93.97 104.06 Qatar 42.32 36.70 Bahrain 226.23 233.58 Oman 324.61 353.60 Iraq 514.06 542.74 Egypt 299.45 330.47 Morocco 98.33 102.56 Turkey 288.11 299.47 US 10.60 11.52 UK 13.70 15.13 China 28.51 26.70 Japan 14.71 14.74 Germany 8.91 9.09 France 14.24 14.42 Source: Bloomberg This report has been prepared and issued by Kuwait Financial Centre K.P.S.C. (Markaz) , which is regulated by the Capital Markets Authority and the Central Bank of Kuwait. The report is owned by Markaz and is privileged and proprietary and is subject to copyrights. Sale of any copies of this report is strictly prohibited. This report can not be published. A number of sources which include Bloomberg, Zawya, and daily newspapers were utilized in the creation of this report.