Global Markets Research Weekly Highlights (HLB)
By Majed Salah
6 years ago
Global Markets Research Weekly Highlights (HLB)
Ard, Mal, Murabahah, Sukuk , Reserves, Sales
Ard, Mal, Murabahah, Sukuk , Reserves, Sales
- June 23 , 2017 Global Markets Research Weekly Market Highlights Macroeconomics Weekly Performance Macro Currency Equity ↑ ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↓ US EU ↔ UK Japan ↑ ↑ Malaysia ↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ China Hong Kong Singapore RBNZ held benchmark rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected. The central bank decided to hold rate at its current level for four straight meetings and was in no hurry to raise rates anytime soon as “numerous uncertainties remain”. Governor Graeme Wheeler reiterated that RBNZ doesn’t expect to start raising rates until late 2019 as a weaker currency will “help rebalance growth outlook towards the tradable sector”. BOJ voted by a 7-2 majority to hold policy rate unchanged at -0.10% and purchase JGB to maintain 10-year yield close to zero percent. Economic outlook has improved and the central bank now expects GDP to expand 1.60% for fiscal year 2017-18 and core inflation to increase 1.40%. US 1Q GDP, Richmond fed manufacturing index, pending home sales, personal income and personal spneidng will be on the economic calendar next week. Meanwhile from the UK, final 1Q GDP, index of services and net consumer credit along with Eurozone’s economic confidence index, consumer confidence idex and CPI reading will be released next week. In the Asian sphere, Japan retail sales, household spending, and industrial production will be released next week in tandem with China’s industrial profits, manufacturing PMI and non manufacturing PMI. Closer to home, a slew of Vietnamese data including industrial production, 2Q GDP, exports and retail sales are pending release. Down south, Australia HIA new home sales coupled with New Zealand’s exports and building permits will be in the pieplines next. 10-y Govt Bond Yields ↔ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↑ ↓ ↓ ↓ Weekly MYR Performance MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW) -0.16 GBP -0.05 AUD -0.02 SGD CNY MYR Appreciated JPY USD retreated against 6 G10s but the Dollar Index still managed to close 0.16% WOW higher at 97.59, supported by relatively bigger declines in major components JPY and GBP. USD is bullish in our view, after having recently buoyed by refuge demand and hawkish tone from a few Fed officials; with more Fed speaks over the weekend and into mid-week, we reckon that there is a bullish potential in the greenback. Thereafter, USD performance will depend on first-tier US data. The Dollar Index remains inclined to further gains and likely to test 97.72. Breaking above this exposes a move to 98.20 going forward. 0.44 0.48 0.50 EUR 0.80 CHF 0.00 MYR weakened 0.44% WOW to 4.2863 against USD and fell against 8 G10s as regional sentiment remained mostly soft through the week. We expect MYR to remain soft against USD next week; closure of Malaysia market is likely to add pressure on MYR more so if USD strengthens, while the remainder of the week could see soft market sentiment. Technically, USDMYR remains tilted to the upside, with scope to test 4.2937, above which it will take aim at 4.3030. 0.08 HKD -0.20 0.04 USD -0.40 Forex MYR Depreciated 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 Indicative Yields Fixed Income Please see important disclosure at the end of the report 1 Fixed Income & Economic Research UST yields seen influenced by Fed rhetoric this week as well as oil price dynamics. Inflation expectations somewhat dampened for now amid retreating oil prices, which may provide some level of support for UST. Meanwhile rhetoric from US policymakers suggest expecations for one more interest rate increase remains on the cards. 10-year yields hovering at 2.15% at time of writing. Focus on upcoming US PMI release tonight, as well as durable goods orders, retail sales, US GDP as well as PCE release next week. Local govvies saw thinner trading volume this week, with players preferring to stay on the sideline amid a slew of hawkish Fed official remarks. USD strengthening bias amid looming Fed hike expectations and tapering measures somewhat influenced investors to stay vigilant. 10-year MGS seen hovering at 3.88-3.89% level at time of writing. On the data front, inflation in May moderated to 3.9% YOY versus market expected level of 4.1%. Moderating inflation and retreating oil price could pave the way for inflation outlook to remain contained, reinforcing our views for OPR to stay unchanged at 3.00% in 2017.
- Weekly Market Highlights Contents 2 Macroeconomics Page 3 Forex Page 4 Trading Idea Page 5 FX Technicals Page 6 Fixed Income Page 7 Economic Calendar Page 9 Fixed Income & Economic Research
- Weekly Market Highlights Review Macroeconomics Wheeler reiterated that RBNZ doesn’t expect to start raising rates until late 2019 as a 6-month Macro Outlook Economy US EU UK Japan Australia China Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Singapore ↔ ↑ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ RBNZ held benchmark rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected. The central bank decided to hold rate at its current level for four straight meetings and was in no hurry to raise rates anytime soon as “numerous uncertainties remain”. Governor Graeme Inflation ↔ ↔ ↔ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↓ ↑ ↑ ↑ Interest Rate ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ weaker currency will “help rebalance growth outlook towards the tradable sector”. Currency ↑ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↓ ↓ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ RBA minutes indicate that the central bank will continue to monitor progress in the labor and housing markets. Price pressure were beginning to ease in Sydney and Melbourne and unemployment rate stood at four year low of 5.50% in May, suggesting that benchmark rate will stay pat at current level in the near future. BOJ voted by a 7-2 majority to hold policy rate unchanged at -0.10% and purchase JGB to maintain 10 year yield close to zero percent. Economic outlook has improved and the central bank now expects GDP to expand 1.60% for fiscal year 2017-18 and core inflation to increase to 1.40%. On the data front, US housing market data was broadly sluggish amid higher interest rates. The only bright spot for the week was the rebound in existing home sales which rose 1.10% MOM to 5.62 million units in May followed a 2.30% MOM decline in April. On the contrary, housing starts and building permits figure were sluggish as builders anticipate higher borrowing cost to adversely impact demand. Separately, post-election optimism has somewhat dwindled as the University of Michigan index dropped to a seven-month low of 94.5 in June (May: 97.1). Manufacturing sector data somewhat optimistic as Kansas city manufacturing index rose to a three-month high and signaled that modest acceleration in factories expansion may contribute to overall GDP growth this quarter. Report from the Confederation of British Industry showed that factory order books surged to the highest in almost 30 years as exports demand improved. The CBI index climbed to 16 in June from 9 in May as the gauge for exports jumped to the highest in 22 years. On a separate report, Rightmove house prices increased at its slowest pace in four years amid slower wage gain and intensifying risks from Brexit negotiation. Japan’s exports rose 14.90% YOY to 5.851 trillion in May after an increase of 7.50% YOY in April. On the other hand, imports grew 17.80% YOY in May (April: +15.20% YOY). Trade balance unexpectedly slipped to a deficit of 203.4 billion yen in May due to the 7.5% MOM decline in exports and 3.5% increase in imports. On the domestic front, CPI tapered off for the 2nd straight month to 3.90% YOY in May, as a result of slower increase in transport prices. Core CPI ticked higher for the first time in four months but remained modest nonetheless. CPI readings may continue to taper from current levels leading to a full year average of 3.40% for 2017 should global crude oil prices continue to range trade at USD 48-50/barrel for the remainder of the year. More modest price outlook, coupled with resilient growth shall pave the way for BNM to keep OPR unchanged this year. Malaysia’s foreign reserves rose by $ 0.70 billion to $ 98.70 billion on June 15th. The position was sufficient to finance 8.2 months of retained imports and is 1.1x short term external debt. The Week Ahead… 3 Fixed Income & Economic Research US 1Q GDP, Richmond fed manufacturing index, pending home sales, personal income and personal spneidng will be on the economic calendar next week. Meanwhile from the UK region, final 1Q GDP, index of services and net consumer credit along with euro zone’s economic confidence index, consumer confidence idex and CPI reading will be released next week. In the Asian sphere, Japan retail sales, household spending, and industrial production will be released next week in tandem with China’s industrial profits, manufacturing PMI and non manufacturing PMI. Closer to home, a slew of Vietnamese data including industrial production, 2Q GDP, exports and retail sales are pending release. Down south, Australia HIA new home sales coupled with New Zealand’s exports and building permits will be in the pieplines next.
- Weekly Market Highlights Review & Outlook Forex MYR: MYR weakened 0.44% WOW to 4.2863 against USD and fell against 8 G10s as regional sentiment remained mostly soft through the week. We expect MYR to remain soft against USD next week; closure of Malaysia market is likely to add pressure on MYR more so if USD strengthens, while the remainder of the week could see soft market sentiment. Technically, USDMYR remains tilted to the upside, with scope to test 4.2937, above which it will take aim at 4.3030. MYR vs Major Counterparts (% WOW) -0.16 GBP -0.05 AUD MYR Depreciated -0.02 SGD CNY MYR Appreciated USD 0.44 0.48 0.50 EUR 0.80 CHF -0.20 0.00 0.16% WOW higher at 97.59, supported by relatively bigger declines in major components JPY and GBP. USD is bullish in our view, after having recently buoyed by refuge demand and hawkish tone from a few Fed officials; with more Fed speaks over the weekend and into mid-week, we reckon that there is a bullish potential in the greenback. Thereafter, USD performance will depend on first-tier US data. The Dollar Index remains inclined to further gains and likely to test 97.72. Breaking above this exposes a move to 98.20 going forward. 0.08 JPY HKD -0.40 USD: USD retreated against 6 G10s but the Dollar Index still managed to close 0.04 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 G10s despite the absence of any apparent catalyst. With little macro flow from Eurozone and anticipated continued dip in risk appetite in European markets, EUR is slightly inclined to the downside against USD, but much of its performance will be dictacted by the greenback’s direction. Bearish bias prevails for EURUSD, but we do not rule out a modest rebound that will unlikely to sustain if it fails to beat 1.1207. We set sights on a drop to 1.1062 soon. Source: Bloomberg USD vs the G10s (% WOW) -0.60 GBP -0.49 -0.36 AUD JPY DKK 0.00 0.03 EUR 0.06 SEK USD Appreciated USD Depreciated CAD 0.36 NZD -0.50 G10 list amid lingering Brexit concerns. We note the hawkish comments from a BOE official and more so, a hawkish change in voting pattern on monetary policy by the MPC. Even so, we opine that these are likely long-term ramification and depend a lot on sustained improvement in the UK economy. Meanwhile, we expect GBPUSD to be weighed down by near-term Brexit concerns as negotiations continue. Bearish bias did not retreat even after GBPUSD climbed above 1.2690, thus we opine that the pair will soon dip lower and set sights on a drop to 1.2579. 0.27 CHF -1.00 GBP: GBP fell 0.6% WOW to 1.2682 against USD and tumbled to the bottom of the 0.21 NOK 0.78 0.00 0.50 1.00 USD vs Asian Curencies (% WOW) -1.47 KRW -1.26 PHP -0.64 AUD: AUD fell 0.49% WOW to 0.7542 against USD and retreated against 8 G10s, TWD -0.46 SGD -0.44 MYR -0.40 USD Depreciated CNY -0.32 -0.09 JPY: JPY weakened 0.36% WOW to 111.33 against USD and fell against 7 G10s, on the back of firmer commodity and European majors. We stay bearish on JPY in anticipation of a firmer USD next week. Macro flow from Japan currently suggests a mild bearish potential, which will likely continue to support BOJ’s continuation of expansionary monetary policy. Technical outlook remains optimistic for USDJPY, especially after sharp losses were repelled by 110.95. We now set sights on a break at 111.60 next, after which USDJPY will carve out a move to 112.25. Source: Bloomberg USD Appreciated EUR: EUR inched 0.06% WOW higher to 1.1152 against USD and rose against 5 IDR INR weighed down by risk-off in equities and failed to be inspired by firmer commodity majors. Expect a bearish AUD next week in anticipation of a firmer USD, as well as potential risk aversion ahead of manufacturing data from China. Weakness in commodities, particularly gold and iron, will weigh on AUD. Bullish bias looks likely to be overturned soon, and a close below 0.7539 will be an indication that bearish bias prevails. We expect AUDUSD to test, and possibly even break below, 0.7490 going forward. -0.03 THB HKD -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 Source: Bloomberg 4 SGD: SGD weakened 0.46% WOW to 1.3902 against USD and fell against 8 G10s, 0.03 Fixed Income & Economic Research 0.50 weighed down by risk-off in equities. We reckon that risk appetite is likely to remain soft next week ahead of various Fed speaks and US first-tier data, thus pressure SGD against USD. Technical outlook remains supportive of further climbs; closing above 1.3907 is a crucial indicator that USDSGD has additional legs higher, which we opine can test as high as 1.4000 – 1.4029 in the coming weeks.
- Weekly Market Highlights Technical Analysis : Currency Current price 14-day RSI Support - Resistance EURUSD 1.1163 51.74 1.1115 GBPUSD 1.2699 42.14 USDJPY 111.28 USDCNY 6.8419 USDSGD Moving Averages Call 30 Days 100 Days 200 Days 1.1288 1.1186 1.0854 1.0822 Positive 1.2596 1.3000 1.2846 1.2635 1.2551 Negative 52.77 109.33 111.97 111.04 111.81 110.91 Negative 54.78 6.7742 6.8574 6.8404 6.8733 6.8421 Positive 1.3888 52.33 1.3771 1.3913 1.3859 1.3995 1.4047 Positive AUDUSD 0.7555 54.90 0.7397 0.7649 0.7499 0.7556 0.7529 Negative NZDUSD 0.7273 67.12 0.7055 0.7322 0.7114 0.7055 0.7096 Negative USDMYR 4.2892 48.97 4.2547 4.2938 4.2874 4.3801 4.3413 Positive EURMYR 4.7885 53.10 4.7602 4.8131 4.7887 4.7469 4.7064 Positive GBPMYR 5.4476 43.27 5.3952 5.5432 5.5097 5.5249 5.4604 Negative JPYMYR 3.8551 47.47 3.8272 3.8949 3.8568 3.9139 3.9366 Positive CHFMYR 4.4191 56.40 4.3755 4.4313 4.3987 4.4101 4.3639 Negative SGDMYR 3.0884 44.27 3.0817 3.0951 3.0913 3.1274 3.0973 Negative AUDMYR 3.2407 54.35 3.1544 3.2746 3.2129 3.3113 3.2722 Negative NZDMYR 3.1197 71.12 3.0018 3.1371 3.0439 3.0946 3.0866 Negative Trader’s Comment: Dwindling oil prices was the focus this week as it went another leg lower and traded to a low of 42.05. It has subsequently retraced and is at 42.90 at time of writing, but the general downtrend momentum still seems intact and we may continue to see a test of the 42.00 support next week. The move in oil prices led a risk-off move in equities globally, as well as in FX. DXY touched a high of 97.87 before retracing to 97.46 at time of writing, the upwards move likely accelerated by market being caught short USD from last week. Markets seem to have keen sellers at current levels, but if oil prices continue to slide we should see DXY higher still. We’ve also had a few Fed members speaking this week, and while most of their comments were less bullish and suggested waiting until December for the next rate hike, most comments agreed with the balance sheet reduction plan to begin this year. Another big news was MSCI's decision to include Chinese equities in their index, giving Chinese stocks a boost. This change which will be implemented beginning next year may lead risk-on trades which may spillover to the rest of EM. Locally, USDMYR traded to a high of 4.2900 this week but has mostly remained in a tight 4.28-4.29 range ahead of our 4-day long weekend. Still seeing plenty of buying interest in line with the risk-off move globally. The 4.3000 strong psychological resistance is still holding but that will likely be put to test next week. Expecting 4.27-4.32 range to hold in the coming week. 5 Fixed Income & Economic Research
- Weekly Market Highlights Technical Charts USDMYR EURMYR Resistance : 4.8131 Support: 4.7602 Resistance: 4.2938 Support: 4.2547 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg GBPMYR JPYMYR Resistance: 5.5432 Resistance 3.8949 Support: 5.3952 Support: 3.8272 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg AUDMYR SGDMYR Resistance: 3.0951 Resistance: 3.2746 Support: 3.0817 Support: 3.1544 Source: Bloomberg 6 Fixed Income & Economic Research Source: Bloomberg
- Weekly Market Highlights Fixed Income % Benchmark MGS Yields 3Y MGS 5Y MGS 10Y MGS 5.2 4.7 Review & Outlook UST yields seen influenced by Fed rhetoric this week as well as oil price dynamics. Inflation expectations somewhat dampened for now amid retreating oil prices, which may provide some level of support for UST. Meanwhile rhetoric from US policymakers suggest expecations for one more interest rate increase remains on the cards. 10-year yields hovering at 2.15% at time of writing. Focus on upcoming US PMI release tonight, as well as durable goods orders, retail sales, 1Q GDP as well as PCE release next week. Local govvies saw thinner trading volume with players preferring to stay on the sideline amid a slew of hawkish Fed official remarks. USD strengthening bias amid looming Fed hike expectations and tapering measures influenced investors to stay vigilant. 10-year MGS seen hovering at 3.88-3.89% level at time of writing. On the data front, inflation in May moderated to 3.9% YOY versus market expected level of 4.1%. Moderating inflation and retreating oil price could pave the way for inflation outlook to remain contained, reinforcing our views for OPR to stay unchanged at 3.00% in 2017. Trading volume for corporate bonds/sukuk increased this week. We opine the surged in trading activiites could be influenced by end of quarter trades as we approach the end of 2Q2017. As of Thursday’s close, we saw long-dated Govco ‘2/32 and DanaInfra ‘3/32 crossed at 4.85% level, whilst Jambatan Kedua ‘7/41 seen dealt at 5.18%. AAA rated TNB WE ‘1/29 crossed at 4.73%. Other notable trades include a slew of CIMB Bank and Unitapah papers. Unitapah maturing 2024-2026, saw a collective RM30m traded with levels ranging at 4.62%-4.72% level. Benchmark SGS saw yields easing lower this week, with 10-year shaved circa 10 bps on WoW basis versus last week’s closing levels. 10-year hovering below 2.00% mark, to settle at 1.98% level. We opine retreating oil prices seen influencing bond yields to ease lower on dampened inflation outlook. On the macro front, NODX released a reading of -1.2% YOY in May, versus previous level of -0.8%. (although reading was better than market consensus level of -5.6%). 4.2 3.7 3.2 2.7 bps MGS Yield Spread Jan-17 Jul-16 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jan-15 Jul-14 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jan-10 2.2 3/10Y 200 3/5Y 150 100 50 % Jan-17 Jul-16 Jan-16 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-12 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jul-08 -50 Jan-08 0 MYR IRS Curve 6.0 3Y IRS 5.5 5Y IRS 5.0 7Y IRS 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 2.0 % Benchmark SGS Curve 2Y 5Y 10Y 20Y 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 7 Jan-17 Jul-16 Jan-16 Jul-15 Jan-15 Jul-14 Jan-14 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 0.0 Fixed Income & Economic Research
- Weekly Market Highlights Rating Actions Issuer PDS Description Rating /Outlook Action Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Company Long-term corporate credit rating to A3 from A1 and revised the outlook on the rating to stable from negative A3 / stable Downgraded from A1, outlook revised to stable from negative Sports Toto Malaysia Sdn Bhd Proposed RM800.0 million 15-year Medium-Term Notes Programme (MTN-2) AA- / Stable Assigned MEX II Sdn Bhd RM1.3 billion Sukuk Murabahah Programme (Sukuk Murabahah) and RM150 million Junior Bonds issuance (Junior Bonds) AA- / Stable A-/ Stable Affirmed 8 Fixed Income & Economic Research
- Weekly Market Highlights Economic Calendar Release Date Date Country 07 /03 07/07 Malaysia 06/26 06/27 US 06/28 06/29 06/30 07/03 07/05 07/06 07/07 06/26 06/28-07/03 06/29 UK 06/30 07/03 07/04 07/05 07/07 06/29 Euro zone 06/30 07/03 07/04 07/05 07/06 06/26 9 Japan Reporting Period Survey Prior Revised Nikkei Malaysia PMI Exports YoY Foreign Reserves Durable Goods Orders S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index MBA Mortgage Applications Wholesale Inventories MoM Pending Home Sales MoM GDP Annualized QoQ Personal Income Personal Spending Chicago Purchasing Manager U. of Mich. Sentiment Jun May Jun-30 May P Apr Jun Jun-23 May P May 1Q T May May Jun Jun F ----0.70% ---0.20% 1.10% 1.20% 0.30% 0.10% 58.0 94.5 48.7 20.60% --0.80% 5.89% 1 0.60% -0.50% -1.30% 1.20% 0.40% 0.40% 59.4 94.5 --------------- Markit US Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing Factory Orders FOMC Meeting Minutes ADP Employment Change Initial Jobless Claims Trade Balance Markit US Services PMI Markit US Composite PMI ISM Non-Manf. Composite Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Unemployment Rate BBA Loans for House Purchase Nationwide House Px NSA YoY Net Consumer Credit Mortgage Approvals GfK Consumer Confidence GDP QoQ Index of Services 3M/3M Jun F Jun May Jun-14 Jun Jul-01 May Jun F Jun F Jun Jun Jun May Jun May May Jun 1Q F Apr -54.5 -------56.5 ---------- -54.9 -0.20% -253k --$47.6b --56.9 138k 4.30% 40750 2.10% 1.5b 64.6k -5 0.20% 0.20% -------------------- Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year Industrial Production YoY Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn NIESR GDP Estimate Economic Confidence Business Climate Indicator Consumer Confidence CPI Estimate YoY Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Unemployment Rate PPI YoY Markit Eurozone Services PMI Retail Sales YoY ECB account of the monetary policy meeting Leading Index CI Coincident Index Jun Jun Jun Jun May May Jun Jun Jun Jun F Jun Jun F May May Jun F May -------109.4 1.00 -1.30% ------ 56.7 56 53.8 3.30% -0.80% -Â£10383 0.20% 109.2 0.9 -1.3 1.40% -9.30% 4.30% -2.50% ----------------- Apr F Apr F --- 104.5 117.7 --- Event Fixed Income & Economic Research
- Weekly Market Highlights 06 /28 06/29 06/30 07/03 07/05 07/07 07/03 07/05 06/27 06/30 07/03 07/05 06/26 06/29 07/05 06/29 07/03 07/04 07/05 07/06 07/07 06/27 06/29 06/30 06/25-30 07/03 Singapore China Hong Kong Australia Small Business Confidence Retail Sales MoM Jobless Rate Overall Household Spending YoY Natl CPI YoY Industrial Production MoM Housing Starts YoY Construction Orders YoY Tankan Large Mfg Index Tankan Large Mfg Outlook Tankan Large Non-Mfg Index Tankan Large Non-Mfg Outlook Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Consumer Confidence Index Nikkei Japan PMI Services Leading Index CI Coincident Index Purchasing Managers Index Nikkei Singapore PMI Jun May May May May May P May May 2Q 2Q 2Q 2Q Jun F Jun Jun May P May P Jun Jun 49.0 -0.80% 2.80% -0.60% 0.50% -3.10% -1.10% -15 14 23 20 -------- 48.9 1.40% 2.80% -1.40% 0.40% 4.00% 1.90% -0.20% 12 11 20 16 -43.6 53 --50.8 51.4 -------------------- Industrial Profits YoY Manufacturing PMI Non-manufacturing PMI Caixin China PMI Mfg Caixin China PMI Services Exports YoY Retail Sales Value YoY May Jun Jun Jun Jun May May -51.0 -49.6 ---- 14.00% 51.2 54.5 49.6 52.8 7.10% 0.10% -------- Nikkei Hong Kong PMI HIA New Home Sales MoM Jun May --- 50.5 0.80% --- Jun May May Jul-04 Jun May Jun May Jun Jun May Jun 2Q Jun Jun Jun ---1.50% ---4.96b --------- 54.8 4.40% 1.00% 1.50% 51.5 A$555m 56.7 4.75b 38.3 14.9 -7.60% 7.20% 5.10% 17.40% 10.20% 51.6 ----------------- AiG Perf of Mfg Index Building Approvals MoM Retail Sales MoM RBA Cash Rate Target AiG Perf of Services Index Trade Balance AiG Perf of Construction Index New Zealand Exports NZD ANZ Activity Outlook ANZ Business Confidence Building Permits MoM Vietnam Industrial Production YoY GDP YTD YoY Exports YTD YoY Retail Sales YTD YoY Nikkei Vietnam PMI Mfg Source: Bloomberg 10 Fixed Income & Economic Research
- Weekly Market Highlights Hong Leong Bank Berhad Fixed Income & Economic Research, Global Markets Level 6, Wisma Hong Leong 18, Jalan Perak 50450 Kuala Lumpur Tel: 603-2773 0469 Fax: 603-2164 9305 Email: HLMarkets@hlbb.hongleong.com.my DISCLAIMER This report is for information purposes only and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. The information contained herein does not constitute the provision of investment advice and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any of the financial instruments mentioned in this report and will not form the basis or a part of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this publication is derived from data obtained from sources believed by Hong Leong Bank Berhad (“HLBB”) to be reliable and in good faith, but no warranties or guarantees, representations are made by HLBB with regard to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the data. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the authors of the report and do not necessarily represent the opinion of HLBB or any of the companies within the Hong Leong Bank Group (“HLB Group”). The opinions reflected herein may change without notice and the opinions do not necessarily correspond to the opinions of HLBB. HLBB does not have an obligation to amend, modify or update this report or to otherwise notify a reader or recipient thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. HLB Group, their directors, employees and representatives do not have any responsibility or liability to any person or recipient (whether by reason of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) arising from any statement, opinion or information, expressed or implied, arising out of, contained in or derived from or omission from the reports or matter. HLBB may, to the extent permitted by law, buy, sell or hold significantly long or short positions; act as investment and/or commercial bankers; be represented on the board of the issuers; and/or engage in ‘market making’ of securities mentioned herein. The past performance of financial instruments is not indicative of future results. Whilst every effort is made to ensure that statements of facts made in this report are accurate, all estimates, projections, forecasts, expressions of opinion and other subjective judgments contained in this report are based on assumptions considered to be reasonable as of the date of the document in which they are contained and must not be construed as a representation that the matters referred to therein will occur. Any projections or forecasts mentioned in this report may not be achieved due to multiple risk factors including without limitation market volatility, sector volatility, corporate actions, the unavailability of complete and accurate information. No assurance can be given that any opinion described herein would yield favorable investment results. Recipients who are not market professional or institutional investor customer of HLBB should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on the recommendations in this report. HLBB may provide hyperlinks to websites of entities mentioned in this report, however the inclusion of a link does not imply that HLBB endorses, recommends or approves any material on the linked page or accessible from it. Such linked websites are accessed entirely at your own risk. HLBB does not accept responsibility whatsoever for any such material, nor for consequences of its use. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for the use of the addressees only and may not be redistributed, reproduced or passed on to any other person or published, in part or in whole, for any purpose, without the prior, written consent of HLBB. The manner of distributing this report may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries. Persons into whose possession this report may come are required to inform themselves about and to observe such restrictions. By accepting this report, a recipient hereof agrees to be bound by the foregoing limitations. 11 Fixed Income & Economic Research