Qatar: Weekly Market Report

Transcription

1. ` QSE Index and Volume Regional Indices Qatar (QSE)* Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia# Kuwait Oman Bahrain Close WTD% MTD% YTD% 9,027.71 3,330.44 4,577.42 7,419.71 6,764.28 5,016.62 1,339.72 1.5 0.1 (0.5) 0.2 1.6 0.2 0.5 (1.9) (1.9) (0.5) (3.0) 1.1 0.3 (0.8) 5.9 (1.2) 4.1 2.7 5.6 (1.6) 0.6 6,000,000 8,987.51 QSE closed 8,900 0 11-Feb 12-Feb 13-Feb 14-Feb Volume Market Indicators Value Traded (QR mn) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) QSE Index Week ended Feb 15 , 2018 809.3 Week ended Feb 08 , 2018 1,286.1 481,420.0 477,766.7 0.8 36.2 51.8 (30.1) 14,439 22,273 (35.2) 45 44 2.3 29:13 7:36 – Volume (mn) Number of Transactions Companies Traded Market Breadth Market Indices Total Return ALL Share Index Banks and Financial Services Industrials Transportation Real Estate Insurance Telecoms Consumer Goods & Services Al Rayan Islamic Index Market Indices Weekly Index Performance 2.0% 1.6% 15-Feb Close 15,242.04 2,514.61 2,855.64 2,755.76 1,911.40 1,768.36 3,217.64 1,038.70 5,395.94 3,673.83 WTD% 2.2 1.9 3.3 1.8 (0.2) (0.3) 2.9 1.2 (0.3) 3.2 MTD% (1.3) (2.9) 0.7 (3.1) (4.4) (10.9) (5.2) (5.2) (0.6) 1.2 Chg. % (37.1) YTD% 6.6 2.5 6.5 5.2 8.1 (7.7) (7.5) (5.5) 8.7 7.4 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) 335.61 417.32 168.93 4,149.51 162.01 17.52 25.09 Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) 132,197.9 108,189.5# 127,590.1 464,261.2 94,066.3 20,980.9 20,848.1 TTM P/E** 14.1 15.3 11.8 16.6 16.0 12.0 8.4 Abu Dhabi (0.5%) (1.0%) Dubai Foreign institutions turned bearish with net selling of QR30.5mn vs. net buying of QR49.5mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions turned bullish with net buying of QR71.8mn vs. net selling of QR49.3mn in the week before. Foreign retail investors turned bearish with net selling of QR20.0mn vs. net buying of QR2.1mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bearish with net selling of QR21.2mn vs. net selling of QR2.4mn the week before. Foreign institutions bought (on a net basis) ~$34.7mn worth of Qatari equities since the beginning of 2018. 9,027.71 9,000 Oman Trading volume decreased by 30.1% to reach 36.2mn shares versus 51.8mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions dropped by 35.2% to reach 14,439 transactions versus 22,273 transactions in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading volume, accounting for 47.7%, followed by the Industrials sector which accounted for 18.6% of the overall trading volume. Qatar First Bank (QFBQ) was the top volume traded stock during the week with 7.8mn shares. 9,060.67 9,044.82 Saudi Arabia Trading value during the week decreased by 37.1% to reach QR809.3 million (mn) versus QR1.3bn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 45.8% of the total trading value. The Industrials sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading value, accounting for 20.2% of the total trading value. QNBK was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR85.7mn. 12,000,000 Bahrain Masraf Al Rayan (MARK), QNB Group (QNBK) and Barwa Real Estate (BRES) were the primary contributors to the weekly index gains. MARK was the biggest contributor to the index’s weekly increase, adding 56.13 points to the index. QNBK was the second biggest contributor to the mentioned gains, contributing 49.07 points to the index. Moreover, BRES tacked on 26.03 points to the index. However, Ooredoo (ORDS) deleted 9.84 points from the index. 9,100 Qatar (QSE)* The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index increased 134.44 points or 1.51% during the trading week to close at 9,027.71. Market capitalization inched up by 0.8% to QR481.4 billion (bn) versus QR477.8bn at the end of the previous trading week. Of the 45 listed companies, 29 companies ended the week higher, while 13 declined and 3 companies remained unchanged. Qatar Islamic Insurance Co. (QISI) was the best performing stock for the week with a gain of 8.2% on 707.6k shares traded. On the other hand, Ezdan Holding (ERES) was the worst performing stock for the week with a decline of 3.1% on 967.2k shares traded. Kuwait Market Review and Outlook P/B** Dividend Yield 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 4.6 5.3 4.4 3.3 5.1 5.2 5.9 # Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any; Data as of February 14, 2018) Page 1 of 6
2. News Economic & Corporate News  IQCD reports QR957.7mn net profit in 4Q2017; ups dividend from QR4 to QR5 (4.7% yield); Maintain Market Perform rating with QR109 PT – Industries Qatar (IQCD) reported net profit of QR957.7mn in 4Q2017 as compared to QR747.8mn in 3Q2017, versus our estimate of QR1,068.26mn (variation of 10%). QR40mn in impairments from its associate SOLD steel made contributed to the miss of roughly QR110mn relative to our net income estimate. EPS increased to QR5.48 in FY2017 from QR4.88 in FY2016. The board of directors recommended cash dividend of QR5 per share for the period, higher than our estimate of QR4.5 per share. According to the company’s statement, despite a challenging environment, IQCD maintained its production levels, and sales volumes, reduced its controllable operating expenditure, and marginally improved its selling prices. Relative to our model, we saw another quarter of surprisingly strong steel revenue but costs remained sticky. JV income from PE and fertilizers was in line with our estimate with strength in fertilizers offset by a weaker-than-expected contribution from PE. According to the company, on a like-for-like basis, management reporting revenue, assuming proportionate consolidation, was QR14.3bn, improving slightly over FY2016. The petrochemical segment has shown marked recovery, while the fertilizer and steel segments have shown slight improvements over the last year. The recovery and stability of the crude oil prices together with reduced supplies, most notably due to unplanned outages in some large facilities in some large economies during 2H2017, have contributed to the improvement in the petrochemical prices, IQCD stated. Fertilizer prices have shown modest upward momentum, most specifically in the fourth quarter of 2017 on increased demand in some of the large agricultural economies, it stated, adding steel prices moved within a narrow range with prices gaining momentum in the later part of the year. The increase in raw materials costs, short supply of some consumables together with higher demand in some destinations were the key factors in stabilizing the prices in the tail end of 2017. IQCD’s financial position remains solid as cash across the group stands at QR10.3bn after paying 2016’s dividend of QR2.4bn, and periodic debt payments amounting to QR2.4bn across the group. Total debt across the group was QR0.5bn, down from QR2.9bn as on December 31, 2016. (QSE, QNBFS Research, Gulf-Times.com)  BRES reports ~QR483mn net profit in 4Q2017 – Barwa Real Estate Company (BRES) reported net profit of ~QR483mn in 4Q2017 as compared to QR310.5mn in 3Q2017. EPS amounted to QR4.38 in FY2017 as compared to QR4.13 in FY2016. BRES’ board of directors proposed a cash dividend of 25 % of the company’s paid up capital, equal to QR2.5 per share, to be approved at the annual general assembly meeting. BRES’ real estate portfolio has grown to include 6,639 housing units, 12,706 worker rooms, and 265,000 square meters of shops, showrooms, and offices. In FY2017, BRES posted 6% growth in net profit to reach QR1.7bn. BRES enhanced operating revenues by increasing its net rental income by QR140mn, an 18% increase compared to FY2016 as a result of the increase in occupancy rates of Barwa AlBaraha. Also, net revenue of consultancy services and other services increased by QR85mn. The improvement in BRES’ operating revenue was reflected in the total equity attributable to equity holders, which increased by QR695mn, reaching the balance of QR18.9bn as of December 31, 2017. Total assets increased by QR599mn, while the BRES’ liabilities decreased by QR181mn. BRES also maintained sufficient cash balances to cover the group’s operations and to cope with fluctuations in the finance markets with a balance of QR3.1bn. (QSE, Gulf-Times.com)  NLCS reports QR23.31mn net profit in 4Q2017 – Alijarah Holding (NLCS) recorded a net profit of QR23.31mn in 4Q2017 as compared to a net loss of QR11.25mn in 3Q2017. However, on YoY basis net profit rose sharply from QR0.11mn in 4Q2016. The company’s total revenues & income came in at QR19.57mn in 4Q2017, which represents a decrease of 37.1% QoQ (-59% YoY). EPS amounted to QR0.06 in FY2017 as compared to QR0.10 in FY2016. NLCS’ board of directors resolved in its meeting to propose in the forthcoming General Assembly Meeting, which will be held on March 5, 2018, distribution of cash dividend of 5% of the nominal share value i.e. QR0.50 per share. (QSE)  ORDS net profit narrows to ~QR408mn in 4Q2017 – Ooredoo (ORDS) reported net profit of ~QR408mn in 4Q2017 as compared to QR461.9mn in 3Q2017. EPS decreased to QR6.14 in FY2017 from QR6.84 in FY2016. ORDS’ board of directors proposed cash dividend of QR3.5 per share for FY2017. Driven by a growth in revenues, increased monetization of data business and improving customer base in multiple markets, ORDS posted revenue of QR33bn and a net profit of nearly QR2bn in FY2017. ORDS’ EBITDA increased 3% to QR13.8bn with a corresponding increase in EBITDA margin to 42%, indicating a further improvement in operational performance from FY2016 (i.e. 41%). Excluding foreign exchange translation impact, EBITDA increased by 4% YoY. Revenue in FY2017 increased to QR32.7bn, driven by strong contributions from Indonesia, Iraq, Kuwait, Maldives and Oman. Excluding foreign exchange translation impact, revenues increased by 2% compared to the reported 1% revenue increase. New government levies in Oman and one-off provision reversals in FY2016 led to a decrease in ORDS’ net profit by 10% to QR2bn. Excluding these, the normalized net profit attributable to ORDS shareholders increased by 1%. (QSE, Gulf-Times.com)  QIMD's net profit declines 14.9% QoQ in 4Q2017 – Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Company's (QIMD) net profit declined 14.9% QoQ to QR42.63mn in 4Q2017. However, on YoY basis net profit rose 38.8%. The company's sales came in at QR96.37mn in 4Q2017, which represents an increase of 10.9% QoQ. However, on YoY basis sales fell 66.8%. EPS amounted to QR4.34 in FY2017 as compared to QR4.08 in FY2016. QIMD’s board of directors proposed cash dividend of QR3 per share for FY2017. The board also announced the Ordinary and Extraordinary General Assembly Meeting (EGM) to be held on March 11, 2018 to discuss the agenda. In the absence of Quorum, a second meeting will be held on March 18, 2018. (QSE) Page 2 of 6
3. Qatar Stock Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners 0 .0% 9.0% 8.2% 8.1% 7.5% 7.0% 6.7% -2.0% 6.0% -2.1% -2.4% 3.0% -3.1% -3.1% Ezdan Real Estate Milaha -2.9% -4.0% 0.0% Qatar Islamic Insurance Vodafone Qatar Al Khaliji Qatari Investors Group Gulf Warehousing Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Mannai Corp. Qatar Cinema & Salam International Film Distribution Investment Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) 90.0 -6.0% Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) 85.7 9.0 7.8 61.2 60.0 51.9 6.0 51.7 43.3 3.4 30.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 QNB Group Masraf Al Rayan Barwa Real Estate Qatar First Bank Industries Qatar Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) 2.2 2.1 United Development Gulf International Services 0.0 Qatar First Bank Vodafone Qatar Al Khaliji Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded 100% 17.33% 80% 14.98% 60% 23.88% 15.01% 43.81% 46.44% 21.11% Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) (51) Non-Qatari 312 17.45% 261 40% 20% 51 Qatari 497 548 0% Buy Sell Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) (100) - 100 200 Net Investment 300 Total Sold 400 500 600 Total Bought Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Page 3 of 6
4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX Source : Bloomberg The Index closed up 1.51% from the week before; it ended Thursday’s session at 9,027.71. The Index gained some strength through the week and the MACD is now departing zero line upwards, which is a positive for the weeks to come. Our current support level remains at 8,000 points and the resistance at 10,000. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal. Page 4 of 6
5. Com pany Nam e Price February 15 % Change WTD % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 127.00 (0.78) 0.79 117,303 9.4 1.7 Qatar Islamic Bank 102.55 0.72 5.72 24,232 11.5 1.6 4.6 Commercial Bank of Qatar 28.11 0.64 (2.73) 11,377 31.0 0.7 N/A Doha Bank 34.20 2.24 20.00 10,604 10.4 1.0 8.5 Al Ahli Bank 33.50 0.00 (14.08) 6,711 10.4 1.3 2.8 Qatar International Islamic Bank 60.66 1.13 11.10 9,182 11.0 1.6 6.6 Masraf Al Rayan 41.74 5.17 10.57 31,305 15.4 2.4 4.8 Al Khalij Commercial Bank 12.90 7.50 (9.15) 4,644 9.4 0.7 5.8 Qatar First Bank 6.70 3.55 2.60 1,340 N/A 0.8 N/A National Leasing 10.28 5.44 (4.01) 509 171.8 0.5 4.9 Dlala Holding 14.30 2.14 (2.72) 406 21.8 1.7 N/A 1.27 252 27.0 0.9 6.3 178 N/A 1.3 3.2 Qatar & Oman Investment 4.7 8.00 0.00 Islamic Holding Group Banking and Financial Services 31.50 5.00 Zad Holding 74.00 1.07 (8.64) 968 9.3 1.1 6.0 6.02 2.03 (6.81) 70 N/A 1.0 N/A 6.12 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices Salam International Investment (16.00) 218,043 (2.08) (11.18) Medicare Group 80.51 1.91 15.26 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 20.60 (2.37) (17.60) 115.50 (0.43) Widam Food Co. 69.71 Mannai Corp. 63.11 Qatar Fuel Al Meera Consumer Goods Consum er Goods and Services 152.98 700 N/A 0.5 13.1 2,266 28.3 2.3 2.2 129 30.8 1.0 4.7 13.17 11,484 15.3 1.7 5.6 (0.73) 11.54 1,255 11.6 3.7 6.1 (2.89) 6.07 2,879 6.1 1.0 6.3 1.65 5.58 3,060 15.4 2.3 5.9 22,809 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 44.50 1.95 1.83 2,115 10.3 1.3 6.7 Qatar National Cement 69.00 (1.43) 9.70 4,509 13.8 1.4 5.3 105.10 1.73 8.35 63,586 19.2 1.9 3.8 33.50 7.03 (8.47) 4,165 16.5 1.6 3.0 (1.02) 3.15 20,196 12.5 2.2 4.1 8.70 6.10 0.23 5,481 12.0 0.7 6.9 Gulf International Services 17.81 4.89 0.62 3,310 38.9 0.9 5.6 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 14.11 0.79 12.07 17,727 16.3 1.2 4.3 6.28 2.45 2.95 521 N/A 0.6 4.8 Industries Qatar Qatari Investors Group Qatar Electricity and Water Aamal Invesment Holding Group Industrials 183.60 121,609 Qatar Insurance Doha Insurance 46.75 2.39 (10.11) 12,964 30.6 1.3 2.8 13.91 0.00 (0.64) 696 16.5 0.7 4.3 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 47.49 4.37 (3.08) 4,156 13.5 0.7 3.2 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 12.80 (0.54) (3.32) 327 29.1 0.7 4.7 Qatar Islamic Insurance Insurance 59.49 8.16 8.22 892 14.1 2.6 5.9 United Development 16.72 (0.12) 16.27 5,920 11.0 0.5 7.5 Barw a Real Estate 38.10 4.41 19.06 14,826 8.7 0.8 6.6 19,035 Ezdan Real Estate 9.45 (3.08) (21.77) 25,066 14.6 0.8 5.3 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development Real Estate 8.08 4.94 (10.22) 935 52.2 0.6 N/A Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecom s 46,747 86.00 7.51 (1.75) (5.23) 27,548 14.0 1.2 4.1 8.06 (6.36) 6,349 N/A 1.4 N/A 33,896 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 63.00 (3.05) 12.62 7,215 22.7 0.5 5.6 Gulf Warehousing Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 41.38 6.65 (5.93) 2,425 11.3 1.5 4.1 17.40 0.29 8.07 9,640 11.9 1.8 5.7 Transportation Qatar Exchange 19,280 481,420 Source: Bloomberg Page 5 of 6
6. Contacts Saugata Sarkar , CFA, CAIA Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi , CMT, CFTe Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa Mohamed Abo Daff QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6589 PO Box 24025 mohd.abodaff@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 6 of 6