GCC Equity Market Monitor - 3 May

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g May 3, 2017 5/3/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait ‐ PI ‐0.3% ‐4.7% ‐0.1% 0.1% ‐2.7% 0.0% ‐0.1% ‐2.7% 0.6% ‐0.1% 0.1% 0.7% ‐0.5% 17.6% ‐1.2% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Kuwait  ‐ Wtd ‐0.1% 6.6% ‐0.8% Qatar Bahrain ‐1.2% ‐4.3% ‐0.7% 0.2% 9.7% 0.2%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 3.880 million (c. US$ 10.1 million) Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Figures In RO Oman Fisheries Industry 592,958 15.3% Omantel Services 561 342 561,342 14 5% 14.5% Insurance 524,261 13.5% BUY SELL NET 2,825,526 2,825,526  2,987,401 2,987,401  (161,874) GCC 504,730  446,142  58,588  Al Madina Takaful Arabs 47,233  51,442  (4,209) Ooredoo Oman Services 418,069 10.8% OTHERS 502,696  395,200  107,496  Al Anwar Holding Inv Hldg 242,992 6.3% OMANIS MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,360,583  10.0 1.1 5.8% MSM 30 5,510.04 5,528.69 ‐0.34% ‐0.73% ‐4.72% Financial 3,366,749  8.6 0.9 5.0% Financial 8,099.54 8,112.21 ‐0.16% 3.39% 5.57% Industrial 940,245  15.8 1.3 5.3% Industrial 7,549.14 7,478.11 0.95% ‐3.23% 1.92% Services 2,722,395  11.6 1.6 6.7% Services 2,820.20 2,817.33 0.10% ‐2.26% ‐7.80% MSM Shariah 2,522,167  10.0 1.5 6.5% 802.37 803.38 ‐0.13% ‐4.88% ‐7.67% MSM Shariah 5/3/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   % Chg MENA  Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD %QTD %YTD   ‐3.6 ‐4.4 2.2 2.0 ‐3.3 6.1 1.5 ‐0.9 3.2 ‐0.4 ‐1.8 20.8 ‐0.3 ‐0.4 ‐1.4 ‐1.2 12,530.3 0.8 0.8 2,151.7 ‐0.4 ‐1.5 5,665.1 0.3 0.3 24,365.7 0.8 0.8 520.8 0.6 0.6 94,355.9 ‐0.3 ‐0.3 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) 120.1 0.0 ‐0.1 98.3 0.0 0.6 S&P GCC LMC S&P GCC (USD) S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return  S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return  MSCI GCC MSCI GCC MSCI Frontier  MSCI Frontier ex GCC MSCI Arabian Index 1,002.9 ‐0.1 0.3 ‐1.4 0.0 1,630.9 470 2 470.2 545.3 837.5 512.3 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 01 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.3 00 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.1 ‐0.6 ‐0.4 04 1.5 1.7 ‐0.4 3.8 ‐1.3 13 9.2 11.2 ‐1.3 Index  S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,391.2 20,949.9 6,095.4 66,721.8 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX , 7,250.1 5,304.2 12,507.9 Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia 19,445.7 24,696.1 29 934 0 29,934.0 3,132.4 2,219.7 1,120.2 Closing  % Chg %MTD %QTD Index %YTD  0.2 0.4 1.8 7.7 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,838.2 0.4 0.6 2.5 8.7 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,630.4 0.6 0.7 3.8 10.8 988.2 0.9 1.0 3.1 14.6 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 568 7 568.7 06 0.6 ‐0.1 01 13 1.3 32 3.2 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 229.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 ‐0.9 ‐1.8 ‐4.2 Commodity (Bloomberg)  Commodity  83.8 0.0 ‐0.2 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %YTD   0.1 0.2 0.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.8 2.0 1.2 1.4 3.1 2.7 6.8 6.0 13.2 10.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 ‐1.0 3.5 1.6 1.5 9.1 8.9 1.3 0.3 01 0.1 ‐0.7 0.6 0.5 2.8 2.4 11 1.1 ‐2.8 2.8 0.6 1.7 12.3 12 4 12.4 0.9 9.5 ‐2.8 %QTD %YTD %YTD  ‐1.4 2.6 ‐3.0 ‐0.6 2.9 1.9 1.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 1.1 ‐1.6 0.2 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 ‐3.2 4.0 ‐2.1 4.3 4.6 3.4 2.8 0.8 ‐0.3 5.9 4.2 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.3 00 0.0 ‐0.4 0.6 0.5 Global Currencies 1,886.1 MSCI EM Index %QTD Asia Pacific Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD %MTD Europe Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing   % Chg Americas  4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 98.964 1.093 1.373 112.090 1.291 8.806 0.991 6.892 7.781 64.135 0.751 13297.000 3.524 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.304 3.641 0.377 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 ‐0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 ‐0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 0.3 ‐0.5 ‐0.5 ‐0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD  NYMEX Crude 48.0 0.6 ‐2.8 ‐6.1 ‐15.1 ICE Brent Crude 50.8 0.8 ‐2.3 ‐5.5 ‐13.4 Crude Oil, Oman  49.6 ‐1.6 ‐2.4 ‐4.4 ‐8.6 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.2 ‐0.5 ‐3.0 ‐2.3 ‐10.7 153.4 1.3 ‐0.9 ‐9.6 ‐17.7 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,255.7 0.0 ‐1.0 0.5 9.0 Silver Spot 16.9 0.1 ‐2.0 ‐7.7 5.9 Platinum Spot  925.9 ‐0.1 ‐2.1 ‐2.6 2.5 Palladium Spot  819.5 0.7 ‐0.9 2.7 19.8 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 921 8 1,921.8 10 1.0 10 1.0 ‐1.6 16 12 8 12.8 LME Copper‐Spot 5,770.5 1.1 1.1 ‐0.8 4.5 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,649.5 1.2 1.2 ‐3.7 3.6 LME Lead‐Spot 2,262.0 ‐0.9 ‐0.9 ‐2.9 13.1 LME Nickel‐Spot 9 463 0 9,463.0 06 0.6 06 0.6 ‐5.0 50 ‐5.0 50 Steel  US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  616.0 ‐0.3 0.2 ‐0.6 1.1 Agriculture  C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  372 0 372.0 ‐0.1 01 15 1.5 01 0.1 21 2.1 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  452.0 ‐0.4 4.6 3.0 4.1 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  969.5 0.1 1.4 1.3 ‐4.9 Shipping  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  1 073 0 1,073.0 ‐3 2 ‐3.2 Closing %MTD %QTD %YTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Index  ‐3 2 ‐3.2 ‐17 3 ‐17.3 11 7 11.7 Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  810.0 ‐1.2 ‐1.2 ‐4.7 Benzene FOB Korea Spot 765.0 ‐5.0 ‐5.0 ‐7.8 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 770.0 ‐4.9 ‐4.9 ‐7.8 Benzene CFR India Spot 775.0 ‐4.9 ‐4.9 ‐7.7 ‐6.7 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  432.3 ‐7.6 ‐5.9 Naphtha C&F Japan  449.9 ‐1.2 ‐4.1 ‐9.4 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 431.6 ‐3.0 ‐7.9 ‐11.2 p g p p Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  48.8 ‐1.3 ‐4.0 ‐9.2 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  1,215.0 2.1 2.1 31.4 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,160.0 5.9 5.9 5.0 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,155.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 790 0 790.0 ‐5.4 54 ‐5.4 54 ‐8.7 87 7.5 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 935.0 ‐9.2 ‐9.2 2EH CFR South East Asia 955.0 ‐9.1 ‐9.1 7.3 DOP CFR Far East Asia 965.0 0.0 0.0 ‐2.0 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  8,825.0 0.0 ‐3.6 ‐9.6 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 1,130.0 ‐0.9 ‐0.9 ‐3.4 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,160.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.9 y p Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,160.0 , ‐0.9 ‐0.9 2.7 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  1,576.0 1.0 ‐5.1 1.7 UREA Cornbelt 240.0 ‐4.0 ‐4.0 ‐12.7 UREA Middle East 221.0 4.3 4.3 ‐9.8 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 373 5 373.5 38 3.8 09 0.9 82 8.2 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 5/3/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News CBO Treasury Bills Tender Results (Source: ONA)  A tender of Government Treasury Bills, issue number 456, was held at the Central Bank of Oman (CBO) this week with total value allotted amounted to RO 65 million, for a maturity period of 91 days from 3rd May until 2nd August 2017.  Average accepted price reached 99.732 for every RO 100 while the minimum accepted price arrived at 99.730 per RO 100. The average discount rate and the average yield reached 1.07680% and 1.07970% respectively.  The interest rate on the Repo operations with CBO is 1.495% for the period from 02/05/2017 to 08/05/2017 while the discount rate on the Treasury Bills Discounting Facility with CBO is 2.245%, for the same period PDO plans to invest $20 billion in five years to sustain output (Source: Times of Oman)  Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) plans to invest more than $20 billion over five‐year period to sustain long‐term hydrocarbon output. PDO established a new total oil, gas and condensate production record of 1.293 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd).  Total included an average oil daily production of 600,197 barrels per day (bpd), the highest since 2005. The year saw strong and consistent production across oil and gas fields as well as good new oil performance and recovery of gas production from previously closed‐in wells.  The Well Engineering Directorate reached new levels of activity drilling 644 wells, a 12% rise on 2015, and making 19,600 well interventions, a 49% increase on 2015.  In a tough economic environment, and to reduce reliance on government funding, the company turned to the international capital market to successfully raise $4 billion in 2016 from a group of major financial institutions.  A total of 86.4 million barrels of oil, 0.45 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of non‐associated gas (NAG) and 24.3 million barrels of condensate were booked as Commercial Contingent Resources (CCR) volumes in 2016. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Saudi STC , Kuwaiti Zain telecom firms bid for Oman’s third mobile operator licence (Source: Muscat Daily)  Saudi Telecom Co (STC) and Kuwait’s Mobile Telecommunications Co (Zain), have bid for the third mobile operator’s licence in Oman.  STC and Zain announced through their statements to the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul) and Kuwait Stock Exchange (Boursa Kuwait) respectively that they have applied for the third mobile operator’s licence.  TRA stated that it considers that the enhancement of competition in the mobile telecom services market will be of significant benefit to consumers and the economy of the sultanate.  The availability of a range of additional radio spectrum that could be deployed is expected to provide a multitude of mobile telecom particularlyy mobile broadband,, to consumers in the sultanate. services,, p ASAAS to invest RO 7.6 million in crew reporting facility at Muscat Airport (Source: Oman Observer)  As part of its strategy to contribute to Oman Oman’ss non non‐oil oil and gas sectors, Muscat National Development & Investment Company (ASAAS) has signed an agreement with Oman Air for the development and construction of a Crew Reporting Building at Muscat International Airport.  The new RO 7.6 million facility is scheduled to be completed by Q1 2018 along with the main airport terminal.  g g requirements q of cabin crews and Oman Air Operations p Team,, the Reporting p g Buildingg will act as a hub to all airline Servingg the burgeoning crew members and will eliminate their need to access the Departure Terminal at the airport.  The project will be fully funded by ASAAS and built on approximately 25,000 sqm of land allocated by Oman Airport Management Company (OAMC).  Kayan, ASAAS’ Construction Management Company, is scheduled to start work on the project in the coming weeks, and once completed, will hand over the building to Oman Air for operation on a 25‐year lease. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. Oman News Etisalat Group bids for Third mobile license in Oman (Source: Company, ADX)  As per the company statement in ADX, Etisalat Group has submitted a bid for the third mobile license in the Sultanate of Oman.  The bid is in line with Etisalat Group’s expansion strategy considering the market potential and similarities, footprint proximity to our core market, and likely synergies.  As pre the information published by the Oman’s Telecommunications Regulatory Authority, the qualified bidders will be announced on 14th Aug 2017. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source Bloomberg, Source: Bloomberg GBCM Research Market Outlook – Risk aversion trend to prevail, Concern remain on dull market participation… During the last trading session, we saw most of the GCC equities revealing negative trend amid weak global market sentiments and correction in oil prices. Qatar revealed sharp decline of 1.2% for the day. Oman ended lower by 0.3% amid stock specific activity, we saw selling pressure in telecom stocks post announcement of third mobile license bidders. We anticipate the local and the GCC markets to open in red for the day amid continued risk aversion seen in the regional equities. The sentiments to remain weak on further lower oil prices. We see the technical support for the MSM Index around 5,470 levels. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. UAE  News Aldar to see 'a lot of tendering activity' in H2 2017 (Source: Reuters)  Aldar Properties PJSC is expected to issue and award main construction tenders for four of its developments in the second half of this year, a company executive said.  Aldar announced in March that it had completed a 3 billion UAE dirham ($816.8 million) investment program that included several new projects in the pipeline ranging from mid‐market residential, hospitality and leisure, and retail assets on Yas Island and Reem Island.  All projects announced are scheduled to start construction this year and complete during 2019 and 2020, the company said. Etihad says will no longer invest in Italy's Alitalia (Source: Reuters)  Etihad Airways said that it was no longer willing to invest in Alitalia after the Italian carrier's board asked to be put under special administration.  Without support for restructuring, Etihad is not prepared to continue to invest, as per news sources quoting the president of Etihad Airways. Etihad therefore support the necessary decision of the Alitalia Board to apply for extraordinary administration.  Etihad took a 49% stake in Alitalia in 2014, promising to turn around the troubled airline with a 1.76 billion euro ($1.92 billion) investment that included other shareholders GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. GCC  News Saudi British Bank could issue dollar bond this month (Source: Reuters)  Saudi British Bank (SABB) is in discussions with lenders over a U.S. dollar‐denominated bond issue that could come as early as this month, as per news sources.  The bank has appointed HSBC, which has a 40% stake in the lender, as financial adviser for the establishment of a debt programme but no b k have banks h b been f formally ll named d for f the h potentiall issue.  If the sale goes ahead, SABB would be the first Saudi bank to raise funds internationally since the kingdom raised $17.5 billion with its first international bond last year.  Thatt issue Th i was seen paving i the th way for f Saudi S di companies i to t follow f ll suit. it Banks B k in i particular ti l were expected t d to t tap t international i t ti l markets k t soon after the jumbo sovereign issue, but improved liquidity in the banking system has slowed their plans. SABIC looking at $3 billion‐$6 billion acquisition opportunities (Source: Reuters)  Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) is evaluating acquisition opportunities in the range of $3 billion to $6 billion in petrochemicals, specialty chemicals and fertilisers, as per news sources quoting its chief executive.  SABIC aims to do the first such deal in the fourth quarter of this year. In petrochemicals it is targeting acquisitions in North America and China, and d it is i also l exploring l i targets t t in i Africa Af i for f fertilisers f tili or agricultural i lt l nutrients. ti t GBCM Morning Briefing 11
12. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 5/3/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 12