GCC Equity Market Monitor - 2 April

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g April 2, 2017 4/2/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait ‐ PI ‐0.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% Kuwait  ‐ Wtd 0.1% ‐4.0% ‐4.0% ‐2.9% 0.4% ‐1.4% ‐4.1% ‐2.3% ‐2.4% 22.3% 3.6% 8.7% ‐2.5% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research, MTD closing pertains to Mar‐2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Qatar Bahrain ‐0.3% ‐1.8% ‐0.4% ‐2.9% 11.1% 0.5%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Week Previous Week Turnover: RO 17.665 million (c. US$ 45.9 million) Figures In RO BUY SELL NET OMANIS 11 780 741 11,780,741  13 526 993 13,526,993  (1,746,252) GCC 4,004,131  765,071  3,239,060  129,415  213,287  (83,872) 1,750,559  3,159,495  (1,408,936) Arabs OTHERS Value Leaders MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Bank Muscat Financial 4,610,236 26.10% Omantel Services 1 963 948 1,963,948 11 12% 11.12% Al Anwar Hldg Inv Holding 1,357,571 7.69% Ooredoo Services 1,125,244 6.37% Oman Fisheries Industry 947,084 5.36% Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,403,096 10.2 1.1 5.8% MSM 30 5,550.60 5,553.52 ‐0.05% ‐3.97% ‐4.01% Financial 3,240,052 8.5 0.9 5.1% Financial 7,834.31 7,845.67 ‐0.14% ‐4.05% 2.12% Industrial 998,067 20.1 1.4 4.8% Industrial 7,800.85 7,809.85 ‐0.12% ‐1.35% 5.31% Services 2,839,105 12.0 1.7 6.5% Services 2,885.54 2,896.86 ‐0.39% ‐4.06% ‐5.66% MSM Shariah 2,692,701 10.7 1.6 6.1% 843.51 842.03 0.18% ‐1.22% ‐2.94% MSM Shariah 4/2/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   MENA  % Chg %MTD %YTD   0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐4.6 0.0 0.0 5.3 3.7 1.0 ‐2.4 1.6 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐1.1 ‐0.8 1.4 4.4 ‐1.0 1.0 7.6 9.3 ‐0.9 Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey 12,994.8 0.1 2,250.2 ‐0.1 5,543.1 0.0 23,882.6 ‐0.6 538.9 ‐0.5 88,947.4 ‐0.4 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 120.4 0.0 S&P GCC (USD) 98.7 0.0 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return  1,017.5 0.0 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return  1,641.0 0.0 MSCI GCC MSCI GCC 472.0 0.0 MSCI Frontier  537.1 ‐0.1 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 823.6 ‐0.1 MSCI Arabian Index 514.2 0.0 Index  Closing   Americas  % Chg %MTD %YTD   S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,362.7 20,663.2 5,911.7 64,984.1 ‐0.2 ‐0.3 0.0 ‐0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 4.6 9.8 7.9 ‐0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 5.4 7.2 ‐0.8 ‐0.8 ‐0 0.1 1 0.4 ‐0.2 ‐2.1 0.0 0.0 00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐1.1 9.6 11 2 11.2 3.8 6.6 ‐3.3 %MTD %YTD %YTD  0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐1.8 1.3 0.9 5.0 1.7 1.5 1.6 0.8 ‐0.2 4.7 5.8 1.1 ‐3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 Europe FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Asia Pacific Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing  % Chg %MTD %YTD  1,853.7 ‐0.3 0.0 5.9 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,793.3 ‐0.5 2.1 6.1 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,570.1 ‐0.2 3.6 6.7 958.4 ‐1.1 0.0 11.1 MSCI EM Index Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 561 6 561.6 04 0.4 02 0.2 19 1.9 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 227.9 ‐0.1 ‐0.6 ‐1.5 0.0 ‐2.5 Commodity (Bloomberg)  Commodity  85.4 0.0 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing 18,909.3 24,111.6 29 620 5 29,620.5 3,222.5 2,160.2 1,113.8 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD , 7,322.9 5,122.5 12,312.9 4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg In Comparison with USD 100.350 1.065 1.332 111.390 1.255 8.971 1.003 6.887 7.771 64.850 0.763 13322.000 3.636 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.305 3.641 0.377 ‐0.1 ‐0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 ‐0.3 ‐0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 ‐0.2 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %YTD  NYMEX Crude 50.6 0.5 0.0 ‐9.7 ICE Brent Crude 53.5 0.8 0.0 ‐8.4 Crude Oil, Oman  52.3 0.9 0.9 ‐3.6 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.2 0.0 0.0 ‐10.0 170.3 1.1 0.0 ‐8.9 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,249.4 0.5 0.0 8.4 Silver Spot 18.3 0.8 0.0 14.7 Platinum Spot  950.6 0.2 0.0 5.2 Palladium Spot  798.2 0.1 0.0 16.7 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 952 3 1,952.3 ‐0.5 05 00 0.0 14 6 14.6 LME Copper‐Spot 5,816.0 ‐2.1 0.0 5.3 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,750.3 ‐3.6 0.0 7.5 LME Lead‐Spot 2,330.5 ‐0.6 0.0 16.6 LME Nickel‐Spot 9 962 5 9,962.5 ‐1.1 11 00 0.0 00 0.0 Steel  630.0 US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  0.0 0.0 %YTD Benzene FOB Korea Spot 725.0 ‐24.9 ‐12.7 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 730.0 ‐24.7 ‐12.6 Benzene CFR India Spot 735.0 ‐24.6 ‐12.5 468.6 2.0 1.2 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  Naphtha C&F Japan  469.0 ‐7.4 ‐5.5 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 468.6 ‐4.5 ‐3.6 p g p p Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  50.8 ‐7.7 ‐5.4 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  1,190.0 3.5 28.7 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,095.0 ‐15.4 ‐0.9 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,090.0 ‐15.5 ‐0.9 840 0 840.0 ‐14.3 14 3 ‐2.9 29 7.7 20.7 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 1,050.0 2EH CFR South East Asia 1,070.0 7.5 20.2 DOP CFR Far East Asia 1,005.0 ‐1.0 2.0 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  0.0 ‐7.6 ‐5.0 ‐2.6 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,160.0 ‐4.9 ‐0.9 y p Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,190.0 , 0.9 5.3 1,660.0 ‐3.2 7.1 UREA Cornbelt 250.0 ‐13.8 ‐9.1 UREA Middle East 212.0 ‐21.5 ‐13.5 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 370 4 370.4 ‐2.3 23 73 7.3 19 1.9 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  426.5 1.3 0.0 1.4 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  946.0 ‐6.6 Shipping  00 0.0 ‐12.4 9,195.0 00 0.0 ‐2 0 ‐2.0 ‐26.6 1,140.0 19 1.9 0.0 745.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 364 3 364.3 ‐1.8 Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  3.3 C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  1 297 0 1,297.0 %MTD LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  Agriculture  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  Closing A Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  i (i USD/ MT) Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Index  35 0 35.0 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 4/2/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News RO 400 Million worth agreement for Naseem A 'Sabah Project signed (Source: ONA)  The Ministry of Tourism today signed the RO 400 million worth agreement with Amouage Hotels and Resorts LLC to build an Integrated Tourism Complex (ITC) called Naseem A'Sabah.  The project, which will be located at North Al Mawleh beach in the Wilayat of A'Seeb in the Governorate of Muscat, is one of the integrated tourism complexes that has been designed to accommodate more than 1200 residential units and hotel rooms.  It includes a five‐star hotel and a four‐star hotel with a capacity of 600 rooms. It also includes 696 housing units, a marina, a yacht club and a multi‐use village that includes office spaces, business centers, restaurants and other facilities and services.  g Tourism Complex p ((ITC), ), which hopefully p y will contribute to developing p g the tourism sector as Naseem A'Sabah is one of the integrated outlined in the Oman Tourism Strategy 2040, by enhancing the infrastructure for the sector. Orpic to lay foundation stone for NGL Extraction Station (Source: ONA)  Oman Oil Refineries and Petroleum Industries (Orpic) will lay the foundation stone for the Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) extraction station in Fahud. The USD 688 million project is the third part of Liwa Plastics Industries Complex.  The 1st Part and 2nd Part of Liwa Plastics Industries Complex in Sohar Industrial Port contained the steam cracking unit at a cost of USD polypropylene yp py and p polyethylene y y production unit at a cost of USD 888 million. p 2.8 billion,, and the p  The 4th part includes the 300km pipeline to transport natural gas liquids from Fahud station to Sohar Industrial Port at a cost of USD 112 million.  p The natural ggas fluids that will be extracted from the Fahud station will form 60% of the raw material for Liwa Plastics Industries Complex and the operation of the station will start when the operation of the other three parts of Liwa Plastics Industries Complex start by 2020. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Oman Refineries Production data ‐ Feb 2017 (Source: ONA)  Oman Refineries and petroleum industries production dropped 3.4% at the end of February 2017 compared to the corresponding period last year, as per official data  Regular petrol (91) production increased by 17% at the end of February 2017 to 3.213 million barrels whereas its sales rose 52% to 1.104 million barrels. barrels However, However Super petrol (95) production declined 21% to 2.708 2 708 million barrels while its sales fell 13% to 2.586 2 586 million barrels. barrels  The production of gas (diesel) settled at 3.741 million barrels whereas its sales fell by 10% to 2.551 million barrels.  The production of jet fuel dropped by 2% to 909,000 barrels, but its sales increased by 6% to 789,000 barrels. Its exports fell 32 percent to 114,000 barrels.  The production of Paraxylene decreased by 8 percent to 103,000 MT. Its exports dropped as well by 15% to 90,000 MT. The production of polypropylene settled at 34,000 MT whereas its sales grew by 50% to 3 MT. Its exports also increased by 383% to 29,000 MT. New gas allocation to power sector ‘capped’ capped in Oman (Source: Oman Observer)  The Sultanate has decided to ‘cap’ new allocations of natural gas to the nation’s power sector in a move designed to prod the latter into exploring alternatives to gas, long the dominant fuel resource powering the country’s electricity generation sector.  The gas allocations to consumers such as power plants were typically underpinned by long long‐term term commitments extending over 15 15‐20 20 years — timeframes that present significant challenges in the face of growing domestic gas demand.  The cap on new gas allocations to the power sector is expected to remain in place for “some time”, stressing the need for the sector to also enhance efficiency in the utilization of the resource.  For its part, OPWP says it has secured commitments from the ministry for the fuel requirements of new power plants under various stages of development in Suhar, Ibri and Salalah.  However gas availability with regard to future plants is not assured, it warned in its 2016 Outlook Statement. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – All set for Q2 2017 amid expectations of dividend reinvestment and earnings season… The GCC markets ended on a mixed note during Q1 2017 amid strong outperformance trend seen in Kuwait (Price Index gained 22% QTD) and Bahrain market (+11% QTD) after long time. While all other regional markets ended on a negative note. Omani equities had revealed a decline of 4% QTD amid the stocks getting adjusted fully to the dividends. dividends We would see few stocks like Omantel, Omantel Bank Sohar, HSBC Bank Oman to trade ex‐dividends today. We anticipate the local and the GCC equities to open in green for the first trading day of Q2 2017 and to take cues from stable global market sentiments and also the oil prices. We do expect the market to watch out keenly for the dividend reinvestment and also cues from the upcoming earnings season. Key concern to remain on low investor participation. On the technical perspective, MSM Index do see strong support closer to 5,510 points. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE  News Drake & Scull breaches covenants on sukuk, other bank facilities (Source: Reuters)  Drake & Scull (DSI) had breached covenants on a syndicated sukuk and other bank loan facilities after making a loss last year.   The contractor is in talks with its lenders to find new solutions on the debt facilities in question, which are overdue on principal and interest  payments and are technically payable on demand.   Banks have not claimed the overdue payments and are unlikely to do so until new agreements are reached involving refinancing solutions or a  renegotiation of the existing debt. National Bank of Abu Dhabi raises $587 million in green bond debut (Source: Reuters)  The National Bank of Abu Dhabi has issued the Gulf region's first green bond, raising $587 million for projects to fight climate change, the  London Stock Exchange (LSE) said. The five‐year bond is listed on the LSE.  Proceeds from so‐called green bonds help to finance projects in renewable energy, energy‐efficiency, green transport and waste water  treatment.  Aldar awards main contract for UAE waterfront project (Source: Trade Arabia)  Aldar Properties has awarded the main contract worth Dh500 million ($136 million) to Ghantoot General Construction, for development of  its luxury golf and waterfront apartment project, Mayan, located on Yas Island.   As per the deal, Ghantoot General Construction will deliver the construction of five, 11‐storey buildings comprising 512 units. Nineteen of  th these units will be luxury beach villas overlooking the beautiful Yas it ill b l b h ill l ki th b tif l Y shoreline, said the statement from Aldar. h li id th t t tf Ald GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC News Moody ’s affirms Saudi Arabia’s A1 rating on strong fiscal position (Source: Argaam)  Moody's Investors Service affirmed Saudi Arabia's A1 rating and stable outlook, which is supported by a strong but weakening fiscal position, driven by the kingdom's substantial hydrocarbon reserves at low production costs, and high levels of external liquidity.  Saudi Arabia’s real GDP is projected to edge down 0.2% this year, hurt by lower oil production following the OPEC output cut deal. The kkingdom d is likely l k l to post a sizeable bl budget b d d f off 10.5% off GDP in 2017 and deficit d off 9.2% next year.  However, the government's revenue sources will become increasingly diversified over the medium term, with oil and gas revenue declining to 54% by 2020 from 72% of total revenues in 2015, Moody’s said. Saudi Arabia said to issue five cement export licenses (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Commerce and Investment (MOCI) has issued five cement export licenses and one for steel exports, as per news sources. Saudi Customs will collect the fuel price differentials for steel and cement exporters, it was reported.  The Saudi government had earlier approved a new mechanism under which cement and steel exporters would have to pay the difference in fuel costs between the local and international market.  Cement export fees are estimated between SAR 85 and SAR 133 per ton, while steel export charges are estimated between SAR 58 and SAR 390 per ton. Tadawul said to impose new listing fees as of April 1 (Source: Argaam)  The h Saudi d Stockk Exchange h ( d (Tadawul) l) willll impose new fees f on listed l d companies as off Aprill 1, on a proportionall basis b f the for h remaining nine months of 2017, as per news sources. As of 2018, the new fees will be estimated biannually in advance.  The new listing fees are estimated at 0.0001 percent, or one basis point (bps), of a company’s paid‐in capital plus 0.00005 percent (0.5 bps) of the company’s market value. The new charges will not exceed SAR 1 million annually for every listed company. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. GCC News Aramco set for world 's biggest IPO, top global banks signed up (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Aramco has appointed JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and HSBC Holdings for key roles on its initial public offering (IPO), as per news sources, as it moves ahead with plans for what could be the world’s biggest share sale.  The IPO could be the largest ever, based on the Saudi government estimates of a $2 trillion valuation for the company. The global banks will act as advisers d on the h listing l  These banks will join Moelis & Company, Evercore Partners and Michael Klein, the former Citigroup investment banker, which have already won roles, as per news sources GBCM Morning Briefing 11
12. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 4/2/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 12