GCC Equity Market Monitor - 4 May

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA , Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage May 4, 2017 5/4/2017
2. GCC - Equity Market Monitor 20 .0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait - PI Daily Return -0.3% -0.6% -0.5% 0.6% 0.6% Kuwait Wtd 0.2% YTD Return -5.0% -3.4% -3.2% 0.8% 18.3% MTD Return -0.4% -0.7% 0.1% 1.3% -0.6% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Qatar Bahrain -0.4% -0.6% 6.7% -4.6% 9.1% -0.6% -1.1% -0.4%
3. MSM - Net Buy /(Sell) Position Top 5 - Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 3.081 million (c. US$ 8.0 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Al Anwar Holding Invs/Hldg 556,335 18.1% Services 498,226 16.2% Insurance 352,750 11.5% Utilities 227,570 7.4% Insurance 220,980 7.2% BUY SELL NET 2,691,002 2,762,839 (71,836) Oman Fisheries GCC 89,267 197,324 (108,057) Al Madina Takaful Arabs 7,910 6,658 1,252 292,404 113,763 178,641 OMANIS OTHERS Phoenix Power Dhofar Insurance MSM - Lead Indicators Value Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend Yield (%) Indices Monitor Current Closing Previous Closing Daily % MTD % Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,340,456 9.8 1.1 5.8% MSM 30 5,492.42 5,510.04 -0.32% -1.05% -5.02% Financial 3,353,664 8.5 0.9 5.0% Financial 8,072.06 8,099.54 -0.34% 3.03% 5.22% Industrial 937,949 14.6 1.3 5.3% Industrial 7,506.84 7,549.14 -0.56% -3.77% 1.34% Services 2,717,086 11.6 1.6 6.7% Services 2,812.58 2,820.20 -0.27% -2.53% -8.05% MSM Shariah 2,519,583 10.5 1.5 6.5% 800.19 802.37 -0.27% -5.14% -7.92% MSM Shariah 5/4/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA Markets Performance Index Global Markets Performance Closing % Chg MENA 12,603.6 0.6 Egypt Jordan Tunis Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD %QTD %YTD -3.0 -4.1 2.1 3.5 -2.9 5.5 2.1 -0.6 3.1 1.0 -1.3 20.1 -0.8 -0.9 -1.8 -1.0 -0.8 1.4 1.7 -0.8 -1.8 -1.6 -0.4 3.4 -1.8 9.1 11.2 -1.7 1.4 2,157.7 0.3 -1.3 5,660.8 -0.1 0.2 24,719.5 1.5 2.2 523.4 0.5 1.1 93,862.7 -0.5 -0.8 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 119.5 -0.5 -0.5 S&P GCC (USD) 97.8 -0.5 0.2 999.5 -0.3 -0.1 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return 1,625.3 -0.3 -0.1 MSCI GCC 468.2 -0.4 -0.5 MSCI Frontier 544.7 -0.1 0.7 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 837.7 0.0 0.7 MSCI Arabian Index 510.2 -0.4 -0.3 Index Closing % Chg Americas S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,388.1 20,957.9 6,072.6 66,093.8 Index Closing Nikkei Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD 1,883.1 -0.2 0.3 1.6 7.5 MSCI World -Ex USA 1,835.6 -0.1 0.5 2.4 8.6 MSCI Europe- USD 1,631.4 0.1 0.8 3.9 10.9 985.7 -0.2 0.8 2.9 14.3 MSCI EM Index Dollar Index USD Vs EURO USD Vs Canadian Dollar USD Vs Japanese Yen USD Vs GBP USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar USD Vs Indian Rupee USD Vs Aus Dollar USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot USD Vs Omani Riyal USD Vs UAE Dirham USD Vs Saudi Riyal USD Vs Kuwait Dinar USD Vs Qatar Riyal USD Vs Bahrain Dinar Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices) US 10+ Yr TR 568.0 -0.1 -0.3 1.1 3.0 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 229.5 0.1 0.1 0.7 -0.8 -2.1 -4.5 Commodity (Bloomberg) Commodity 83.5 -0.2 -0.6 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %QTD %YTD 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.7 1.7 6.7 6.0 12.8 9.7 0.4 0.6 0.7 -1.2 3.5 1.7 1.3 9.0 9.1 1.3 -0.1 0.6 -0.6 1.4 -1.6 2.8 2.0 1.6 -2.7 3.5 -1.6 1.7 11.8 13.0 1.0 10.3 -4.9 %QTD %YTD -1.0 2.3 -2.9 -1.3 2.6 1.4 0.8 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 -2.8 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -2.8 3.6 -2.0 3.7 4.3 3.0 2.5 0.7 -0.3 5.8 2.9 1.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD Europe 7,234.5 -0.2 5,301.0 -0.1 12,527.8 0.2 Asia Pacific 19,445.7 0.7 24,602.2 -0.4 30,083.6 0.6 3,134.6 0.0 2,235.7 0.7 1,096.4 -2.1 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Global Benchmark Indices -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.9 %MTD 4 Closing % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 99.305 1.090 1.371 112.800 1.288 8.845 0.995 6.895 7.781 64.214 0.741 13,322.000 3.534 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.305 3.641 0.377 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -1.2 -0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -1.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0
5. Commodities Performance Index Closing Petrochemical Performance % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD NYMEX Crude 47.7 -0.3 -3.3 -6.6 -15.6 ICE Brent Crude 50.7 -0.2 -2.6 -5.7 -13.6 Crude Oil, Oman 49.9 0.6 -1.8 -3.9 -8.1 NYMEX Natural Gas 3.2 -0.3 -1.8 -1.1 -9.6 152.7 -0.5 -1.4 -10.0 -18.1 Precious Metals Gold Spot 1,239.9 0.1 -2.2 -0.8 7.6 Silver Spot 16.6 0.6 -3.6 -9.3 4.1 Platinum Spot 902.1 0.6 -4.6 -5.1 -0.2 Palladium Spot 799.5 0.0 -3.3 0.2 16.9 Base Metals LME Aluminium-Spot 1,915.5 -0.3 0.7 -1.9 12.4 LME Copper-Spot 5,566.8 -3.5 -2.5 -4.3 0.8 LME Zinc-Spot 2,566.5 -3.1 -2.0 -6.7 0.3 LME Lead-Spot 2,207.0 -2.4 -3.4 -5.3 10.4 LME Nickel-Spot 9,177.0 -3.0 -2.4 -7.9 -7.9 Steel US - Hot Roll Coil Steel 610.0 -1.0 -0.8 -1.6 0.2 Agriculture Corn - Active Contract 374.3 -0.1 2.1 0.7 2.7 Wheat - Active Contract 451.8 -0.5 4.5 2.9 4.0 CBOT - Soya bean 974.5 -0.1 1.9 1.8 -4.4 Shipping Baltic Dry Index 1,034.0 -3.6 Closing %MTD %QTD %YTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT) Energy NYMEX Gasoline Index -6.8 -20.3 7.6 Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam 810.0 -1.2 -1.2 -4.7 Benzene FOB Korea Spot 765.0 -5.0 -5.0 -7.8 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 770.0 -4.9 -4.9 -7.8 Benzene CFR India Spot 775.0 -4.9 -4.9 -7.7 -5.0 -5.8 European Naptha Condensates (in USD/ MT) 436.4 -6.7 Naphtha C&F Japan 444.0 -2.5 -5.3 -10.6 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 432.0 -2.9 -7.8 -11.1 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot 48.1 -2.6 -5.3 -10.4 Olefins (in USD/ MT) Ethylene Spot 1,215.0 2.1 2.1 31.4 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,160.0 5.9 5.9 5.0 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,155.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 790.0 -5.4 -5.4 -8.7 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Intermediate (in USD/ MT) 2EH CFR Far East Asia 935.0 -9.2 -9.2 7.5 2EH CFR South East Asia 955.0 -9.1 -9.1 7.3 DOP CFR Far East Asia 965.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 Polymers (in USD/ MT) LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT) Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 8,705.0 1,130.0 -1.4 -0.9 -4.9 -0.9 -10.9 -3.4 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,160.0 0.0 0.0 -0.9 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,160.0 -0.9 -0.9 2.7 Urea (in USD/ MT) 1,576.0 1.0 -5.1 1.7 Urea Price (RMB/ MT) UREA Cornbelt 240.0 -4.0 -4.0 -12.7 UREA Middle East 221.0 4.3 4.3 -9.8 US Urea Avg. Retail Price 350.3 -2.7 -5.4 1.5 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 5/4/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News IMF sees Oman ’s GDP growth rebounding to 3.8% in 2018 (Source: Muscat Daily)  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Oman’s real GDP growth to slow to 0.4 per cent in 2017 as a result of spending cuts and weak economic activity caused by lower oil prices. However, the Fund forecasts that Oman’s economic growth would bounce back to 3.8 per cent in 2018.  Spending cuts and an increase in oil prices are helping Gulf Arab countries lower some of the world’s highest budget deficits, the Fund said, hailing it as progress in efforts to transform economies that have relied on hydrocarbons for more than five decades.  Most of the countries in the six-member GCC have made ‘substantial’ fiscal adjustment.  The IMF expects Oman’s non-oil GDP to grow 2.5 per cent in 2017, while oil GDP to shrink by two per cent. For 2018, the Fund projects non-oil GDP growth at 3.5 per cent and oil GDP growth at 4.2 per cent.  The IMF said Oman saw its budget deficit swell to 20.6 per cent of GDP in 2016, higher than the IMF forecast. The Fund expects Oman’s budget shortfall to narrow by half to 10.1 per cent of GDP this year.  After two years of deficits, the IMF expects the GCC bloc to record a current account surplus in 2017 as oil prices recover. It forecasts Oman’s current account deficit to narrow to 12.3 per cent of GDP this year from 15.5 per cent in 2016. MEDC to go public soon (Source: Oman Tribune)  Muscat Electricity Distribution Company is all set to float its IPO and will go for a private placement, in line with the government’s directives on privatization.  Nama Holding is to being the divestment of a minority portion of share capital through a combination of private placement and an IPO.  This will be in association with Ubhar Capital as a financial adviser for the privatisation process, Bank Dhofar, represented by the investment banking section for the subscription process, and Al Busaidy, Mansoor Jamal and Company as legal adviser, according to a company statement.  The first phase of the privatisation process is expected to start in a few days with an invitation to Omani institutional investors, following which there will be the IPO for retail investors. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Market set to witness insurance IPO rush (Source: Oman Tribune)  It’s going to be a flood of IPOs with at least six insurance companies set to hit the capital market before the August deadline.  Consolidation has been what the government has been targeting, according to Director General of the Capital Market Authority General Directorate of Insurance Supervision Ahmed Al Mamari.  Consolidation was imperative as companies needed to enhance their reach. This would give the companies the benefit of economies of scale and help them face competition and help the end-customer.  The retention rate was low in the sector and it was highly dependent on foreign players. With consolidation and also going public, the scene would change, he added.  Local companies will be in a position to face competition on the support of better finances and a higher capital base should help them in underwriting more risks.  CMA had been working on this for quite some time and had initially asked the insurers to raise their paid-up capital to 5 million rials which was further raised to 10 million rials.  There was also a three-year goal set for the insurance companies to offload their stake by a minimum 25 per cent. While the normal rule was 40 per cent for disvestment, as part of promoting insurance firms to go public, the limit was brought down to 25 per cent.  While the companies had sufficient time to work on this, they appear to have kept it for the last moment, Al Mamari said, adding that there would be no further extension of deadline and -the companies would have to go public by August.  The insurance market had been witnessing around 14 per cent growth and the penetration level was 1.6. Given the present conditions, the growth prospects were stable, he added.  According to market sources, many of the insurance companies had appointed issue managers and were set to offer their shares. On whether there was sufficient liquidity in the market to cater to six IPOs, Mamari said that liquidity would not be a problem as the offering gave the investors a good opportunity.  Sources in the market said that with not a single IPO last year and investment funds looking at fresh prospects, the insurance IPOs should come in handy for them. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM - Market Watch Source : Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Stock specific activity to prevail… During the last trading session, we saw most of the GCC equities revealing negative trend amid weak global market sentiments and correction in oil prices. Oman ended lower by 0.3% amid stock specific activity,. We anticipate the local and the GCC markets to open in red for the day amid continued risk aversion seen in the regional equities. The sentiments to remain weak on further lower oil prices. We see the technical support for the MSM Index around 5,470 levels. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE News UAE PMI signals strong growth in April (Source: Gulf News)  The UAE Purchasing Managers’ Index was broadly unchanged in April at 56.1, compared with March’s 19-month high of 56.2. Output and new orders growth remained very strong although slightly slower than March.  The latest survey data showed that business conditions across non-oil private sector firms in UAE continued to improve at the start of the second quarter. Employment rose in April but the rate of growth remains weak, with just 5.2 per cent of firms surveyed reporting higher employment last month. The majority of firms kept employment unchanged in March despite continued new orders growth. As a result, the backlogs of work continued to rise in April, but at a slower rate than March. Dubai Group requests haircut from creditors to settle debt early -sources (Source: Reuters)  Dubai Group has requested creditors to take a haircut on debt maturing in 2024 in exchange for an early settlement, banking sources said.  The firm completed a restructuring on around $6 billion of debt in 2014, with lenders agreeing to extend the maturity for secured debt to December 2016 and unsecured loans to December 2024. A further $4 billion of debt was to be repaid after creditors were satisfied.  In the last few days the company offered creditors around 29 cents on the dollar in return for an early settlement of debt maturing in 2024, the sources said, declining to say the value of the amount.  Creditors who decline the offer will be repaid at a higher rate in 2024. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC News Al Othaim proposes lifting curbs on foreign ownership (Source: Argaam)  The board of Abdullah Al Othaim Markets Co. has recommended amending the company bylaws to lift the restrictions on foreign ownership, the company said in a statement to Saudi bourse, Tadawul.  The company is not expected to bear an additional tax burden pertaining to foreign stakes, given the ministerial decree to amend the income tax bylaws to exclude the shares of non-Saudis that are owned by speculative interest through trading.  The decision will be pending the approval of the extraordinary general meeting (EGM), the date of which will be decided after obtaining the necessary approvals and completing the required procedures. Burgan Bank reports Q1 earnings (Source: Trade Arabia)  Burgan Bank Group reported a net income growth of 25% to KD17.8 million ($58.4 million) for the first quarter of this year, compared with KD14.3 million for the same period last year.  Underlying net income (excluding precautionary reserves and after AT1 cost) grew 8% to reach KD18.1 million ($59.3 million), the bank said.  The selective growth approach clubbed with the focus on operating efficiencies enabled earnings strength to continue at both top line and bottom line levels, amid regional operating environment complexities, it said.  Compared to the same period last year, loans and advances grew by 3 per cent to reach KD4.3 billion ($14.1 billion) while deposits grew by 1 per cent to reach KD3.9 billion ($12.9 billion). Capital adequacy ratio under Basel III stood at 16.5 per cent as of March 31, 2017, it said. Qatar to spend $103bn on big infrastructure projects (Source: Trade Arabia)  It is boom time for Qatar’s construction sector as the government is set to spend around $103 billion on major infrastructure projects in preparations for the Fifa 2022 World Cup event, said a report.  The government plans to spend more than 47 per cent of the national budget on major infrastructure projects, reported Gulf Times, citing the organisers of Project Qatar construction expo which kicks off in Doha on May 8. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage - Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 5/4/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11