GCC Equity Market Monitor - 29 May

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g May 29, 2017 5/29/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% Daily Return Daily Return YTD Return MTD Return Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait ‐ PI 0.3% ‐0 3% ‐6.8% ‐2.3% 1.3% ‐1 3% ‐5.9% ‐3.3% 1.0% ‐1 0% ‐6.7% ‐3.6% 0.5% ‐0 5% ‐1.1% ‐0.6% 0.6% ‐0 6% 15.7% ‐2.8% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Kuwait  ‐ Wtd 0.3% ‐0 3% 5.5% ‐1.8% Qatar Bahrain 0.6% 0 6% ‐3.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0 2% 7.9% ‐1.4%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 1.347 million (c. US$ 3.5 million) Figures In RO OMANIS GCC Arabs OTHERS Value Leaders Turnover (RO) Market Share Bonds 234,000 17.4% BUY SELL NET 1,307,086 1,307,086  1,156,524 1,156,524  150,562 150,562  Omantel Services 167 650 167,650 12 4% 12.4% 25,037  125,000  (99,963) Al Maha Petroleum Services 119,000 8.8% 438  15,007  (14,569) Bank Nizwa Banking 106,734 7.9% 14,602  50,632  (36,030) Al Madina Takaful Insurance 97,570 7.2% Oman Govt. Bonds 46 MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Sector Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,219,232  13.0 1.1 5.9% MSM 30 5,386.64 5,403.14 ‐0.31% ‐2.30% ‐6.85% Financial 3,321,884  8.4 0.9 5.0% Financial 7,970.67 8,003.03 ‐0.40% ‐1.06% 3.89% Industrial 907,709  12.9 1.3 5.5% Industrial 7,291.37 7,316.38 ‐0.34% ‐2.16% ‐1.56% Services 2,648,506  62.1 1.7 6.9% Services 2,764.21 2,772.31 ‐0.29% ‐2.02% ‐9.63% MSM Shariah 2,451,055  13.1 1.5 6.7% 789.68 791.45 ‐0.22% ‐1.24% ‐9.13% MSM Shariah 5/29/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   % Chg MENA  Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD %QTD %YTD   1.6 ‐4.2 3.1 1.3 ‐1.6 9.7 7.0 ‐0.6 4.1 ‐1.1 0.1 24.8 ‐1.7 ‐2.4 ‐2.7 ‐3.1 13,205.1 0.8 6.2 2,156.2 0.0 ‐1.3 5,714.1 0.5 1.2 24,200.5 0.2 0.1 530.5 0.2 2.4 97,533.3 ‐0.2 3.0 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) 118.4 ‐0.7 ‐1.4 96.3 ‐0.8 ‐1.3 S&P GCC LMC S&P GCC (USD) S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return  S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return  MSCI GCC MSCI GCC MSCI Frontier  MSCI Frontier ex GCC MSCI Arabian Index 1,006.5 0.0 0.6 ‐1.1 0.3 1,637.3 463 7 463.7 561.6 869.2 506.2 0.0 ‐0.7 07 0.3 0.4 ‐0.6 0.7 ‐1.4 14 3.8 4.5 ‐1.1 ‐0.2 ‐1.7 17 4.6 5.5 ‐1.6 4.2 ‐2.7 27 12.5 15.4 ‐2.5 Index  S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,415.8 21,080.3 6,210.2 64,085.4 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX , 7,547.6 5,336.6 12,602.2 Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia 19,686.8 25,639.3 31 028 2 31,028.2 3,110.1 2,355.3 1,073.0 Closing  % Chg %MTD %QTD Index %YTD  ‐0.1 1.8 3.2 9.2 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,874.5 ‐0.3 2.6 4.5 10.9 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,681.4 ‐0.5 3.9 7.1 14.3 MSCI EM Index 1,017.0 0.2 4.0 6.1 17.9 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 575 4 575.4 01 0.1 10 1.0 25 2.5 44 4.4 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 230.7 0.2 0.6 1.2 ‐0.3 ‐1.6 ‐4.0 Commodity (Bloomberg)  84.0 0.4 0.0 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %YTD   0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.3 0.7 2.7 ‐2.0 2.2 2.0 5.0 ‐1.4 7.9 6.7 15.4 6.4 0.4 0.0 ‐0.2 4.8 1.3 1.3 3.1 4.2 2.3 5.7 9.8 9.8 2.6 4.2 37 3.7 ‐1.4 6.8 ‐3.7 4.1 6.3 48 4.8 ‐3.5 9.0 ‐3.7 3.0 16.5 16 5 16.5 0.2 16.2 ‐6.9 %QTD %YTD %YTD  ‐2.9 4.8 ‐1.1 0.1 2.2 3.2 2.8 0.5 ‐0.3 0.4 ‐2.5 0.1 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 ‐4.6 6.1 ‐0.2 5.1 4.0 4.8 4.4 1.3 ‐0.5 5.2 3.2 1.2 ‐1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 ‐0.6 0.0 09 0.9 0.1 0.5 ‐1.0 Global Currencies 1,912.2 Commodity  %QTD Asia Pacific Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD %MTD Europe Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing   % Chg Americas  4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 97.482 1.116 1.346 111.290 1.283 8.693 0.976 6.856 7.795 64.565 0.744 13,312.000 3.576 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.303 3.641 0.377 0.0 ‐0.2 ‐0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 ‐0.2 0.2 0.0 ‐0.2 ‐0.1 ‐0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐1.6 2.5 1.4 0.2 ‐0.9 1.8 1.9 0.6 ‐0.2 ‐0.5 ‐0.7 0.1 ‐0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD  NYMEX Crude 49.7 ‐0.2 0.2 ‐3.3 ‐12.4 ICE Brent Crude 52.1 ‐0.2 0.0 ‐3.2 ‐11.3 Crude Oil, Oman  50.8 1.2 0.1 ‐2.0 ‐6.3 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.2 ‐2.0 ‐3.3 ‐2.2 ‐9.6 163.8 ‐0.3 5.8 ‐3.4 ‐12.1 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,266.2 ‐0.1 ‐0.2 1.3 9.9 Silver Spot 17.3 ‐0.1 0.8 ‐5.1 8.9 Platinum Spot  958.9 ‐0.1 1.4 0.9 6.1 Palladium Spot  791.0 0.5 ‐4.3 ‐0.9 15.4 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 948 8 1,948.8 ‐0.5 05 24 2.4 ‐0.2 02 14 4 14.4 LME Copper‐Spot 5,638.0 ‐1.2 ‐1.3 ‐3.1 2.1 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,631.0 0.2 0.5 ‐4.3 2.9 LME Lead‐Spot 2,104.8 1.9 ‐7.8 ‐9.7 5.3 LME Nickel‐Spot 9 040 0 9,040.0 04 0.4 ‐3.9 39 ‐9.3 93 ‐9.3 93 Steel  US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  613.0 0.0 ‐0.3 ‐1.1 0.7 Agriculture  C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  374 3 374.3 14 1.4 21 2.1 07 0.7 27 2.7 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  438.3 1.7 1.4 ‐0.2 0.9 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  926.5 ‐1.4 ‐3.1 ‐3.2 ‐9.1 Shipping  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  912 0 912.0 ‐0 7 ‐0.7 Closing %MTD %QTD %YTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Index  ‐17 8 ‐17.8 ‐29 7 ‐29.7 ‐5 1 ‐5.1 Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  855.0 5.6 4.3 0.6 Benzene FOB Korea Spot 785.0 2.6 ‐2.5 ‐5.4 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 790.0 2.6 ‐2.5 ‐5.4 Benzene CFR India Spot 795.0 2.6 ‐2.5 ‐5.4 ‐5.1 ‐5.9 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  436.0 ‐6.8 Naphtha C&F Japan  443.0 ‐2.7 ‐5.5 ‐10.8 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 437.9 ‐1.6 ‐6.6 ‐9.9 p g p p Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  48.0 ‐2.8 ‐5.5 ‐10.6 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  1,125.0 ‐7.4 ‐5.5 21.6 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,060.0 ‐8.6 ‐3.2 ‐4.1 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,055.0 ‐8.7 ‐3.2 ‐4.1 805 0 805.0 19 1.9 ‐3.6 36 ‐6.9 69 8.1 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 940.0 0.5 ‐8.7 2EH CFR South East Asia 960.0 0.5 ‐8.6 7.9 DOP CFR Far East Asia 985.0 2.1 2.1 0.0 Polymers (in USD/ MT)  LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  9,105.0 3.2 ‐0.5 ‐6.8 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 1,100.0 ‐2.7 ‐3.5 ‐6.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,120.0 ‐3.5 ‐3.5 ‐4.3 y p Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,130.0 , ‐2.6 ‐3.4 0.0 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  1,600.0 2.6 ‐3.6 3.2 UREA Cornbelt 225.0 ‐6.3 ‐10.0 ‐18.2 UREA Middle East 210.0 ‐5.0 ‐0.9 ‐14.3 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 344 7 344.7 ‐4.3 43 ‐7.0 70 ‐0.2 02 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 5/29/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News RfP for sale of Oman ’s first private power project (Source: Oman Observer)  A competitive process for the sale of the Manah Independent Power Project (IPP) is expected to commence before the end of this year, according to state‐owned power procurement utility Oman Power and Water Procurement Company (OPWP).  The 264‐megawatt (MW) plant in Al Dakhiliyah Governorate, owned and operated by United Power Co, transfers to government ownership in April 2020 upon the conclusion of the current Power Purchase Agreement.  Unlike all of the Independent Power Projects (IPPs) that followed, Manah IPP was developed under the ‘Build‐Own‐Operate‐Transfer (BOOT)’ model. Ownership of the asset reverts to the government in less than three years a transfer that is also a first for the national power industry.  OPWP expects to issue a tender in 2017 for sale of the asset, supported by a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with OPWP, the utility said in its published 7‐Year Outlook Statement.  As a first step in the sale of the asset, OPWP plans to issue a Request for Proposals (RfP) in the fourth quarter of this year, it noted. A new PPA will allow for the continued operation of Manah IPP well beyond the expiry of the current contract with OPWP in April 2020.  Significantly, contracts governing the operation of at least two other privately procured power plants are up for extensions. Al Kamil IPP, a 280 MW power plant in Sharqiyah South Governorate, will receive a three‐year contract extension to December 2021 pending final approval by the government.  Likewise, OPWP has finalised negotiations with the Barka Independent Power and Water Project (IWPP) for an extension of the contract covering the power generation component of the plant.  Under the new agreement, around 388 MW of generation capacity will be available in combined cycle generation mode beyond the expiry of the current contract in April 2018 to December 2021.  However, the plant’s water desalination capacity, which is based on old‐style multi‐stage flash (MSF) technology, will not be tapped as part of the deal. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News New mechanism to support peak power demand in the Sultanate (Source: Oman Observer)  Oman’s power sector authorities are weighing a new mechanism to help respond to spikes in electricity demand without the need for costly investment in new generation capacity.  The mechanism, known as ‘Demand Response’, is a strategy typically used by utilities to reduce or shift energy consumption from peak hours of the day when the demand for electricity is the greatest to leaner demand periods.  According to experts, the Demand Response (DR) mechanism allows large consumers to opt for non‐essential loads at peak times under a pre‐agreed arrangement with the customer against specific conditions of load, price and time intervals.  p y ((OPWP)) says y it is keenlyy lookingg at Demand Response p as p part of an arrayy of p prospective p Oman Power and Water Procurement Company generation resources that can be tapped to help meet potential shortfalls in contracted capacity over the next seven years (2017‐2023). Duqm authority to invest $1 billion per annum for infrastructure development (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman’s Special Economic Zone Authority at Duqm (Sezad) plans to invest $1 billion per year for developing infrastructure at the free zone and adjoining areas, in a bid to attract both foreign and local investments.  These investments are for building the remaining infrastructure work at the port, a liquid berth, a fisheries harbour, main roads, power transmission and distribution lines and water pipelines, as per news sources quoting the chief executive officer of Sezad Oman’s inflation data‐ Q1 2017  (Source: Times of Oman) Oman’s average annual inflation based on consumer price index (CPI) during January‐ March 2017 period stood at 2.33% mainly due to revision in fuel prices, transport costs, education and other user fees, according to the monthly data report. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Negative sentiments to prevail, MSCI related buying to support… During the previous trading session, we saw most of the regional markets ending on a negative note amid prevailing subdued market sentiments along with lower volumes. Qatar and Bahrain still ended higher within the region. Oman ended in red declining 0.3% for the day with selling pressure seen in certain index heavyweights. GCC markets continued to reveal underperformance trend as compared to the global equities. We expect the local and the regional equities to open in red for the day and negative sentiments to prevail. On the other hand, we see MSCI Index related buying during this week (end of May) to support the markets. The MSM30 Index declined below 5,400 points amid low volumes, these levels remain as key support for the market. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE  News Aster DM Healthcare considers London for IPO (Source: Arabian Business)  Aster DM Healthcare is planning an initial public offering next year as the Dubai‐based medical provider seeks to take advantage of improved market sentiment for the Arabian Gulf.  The company aims to sell 10% of shares by October 2018, with a listing either in Mumbai or London, as per the CEO. Proceeds will be used to pay debt d b and d expand, d including l d through h h acquisition. Kotakk Mahindra h d Capitall willll be b lead l d manager off the h issue.  Aster DM operates clinics, hospitals and pharmacies in the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Abu Dhabi approves AED 74.2 million plan (Source: Gulf Base)  Abu Dhabi Executive Council has approved two infrastructure development projects in Abu Dhabi worth Dhs74.2 million. The projects  announced by the executive committee are part of Abu Dhabi Plan to ensure water and energy sustainability.  The committee, agreed to award a Dhs49.2 million contract for replacing water supply network of a number of basins in Abu Dhabi in order to  enhance operational efficiency and meet current and future needs of the population in line with best international standards h i l ffi i d df d f h l i i li i hb i i l d d  The second project, est. at Dhs25 million, is aimed to establish parks & sustainable utilities to meet the needs of different segments in Al Ain. DSI to put aside almost AED 1 billion dirhams for debt payments (Source: Reuters)  Drake & Scull International (DSI) expects to have nearly AED 1 billion ($272 million) of cash flow available over the next four years to partly repay its debt, as per news sources  The loss‐making builder sent non‐disclosure agreements to its lenders in April, ahead of planned meetings to discuss the rescheduling of payments t on existing i ti debt d bt and d to t seekk supportt for f its it 2017‐2021 2017 2021 business b i plan. l  DSI estimates it will have AED 956 million of cash flow available for debt service (CFADS) over the next four years, which will be used to partly repay AED 2.6 billion of funded debt and AED 699 million of interest costs, according to the sources.  Funded debt can usually be bonds, bonds long‐term long term notes payables or debentures that will mature in more than one year. year GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC  News Qatar's trade surplus data‐ April 2017 (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar’s trade balance showed a surplus of QR9.8bn in April, an increase of about QR 5bn or 105% compared to April 2016. The trade balance, however, decreased by nearly QR0.03bn or 0.3% on MoM.  Qatar’s total exports of goods, including exports of goods of domestic origin and re‐exports, reached QR18.8bn in April, up 25.1% from a year ago. On MoM basis, ago basis the export value is down by 4.5%, 4 5% data released by the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS) noted. noted  The YoY increase in total exports was mainly due to higher exports of Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons (LNG, condensates, propane, butane, etc.) reaching QR11.5bn approximately in April 2017, an increase of 33.2 %,.  p , Japan p was at the top p destination of Q Qatar’s exports p with close to Q QR 2.8bn or a share of 14.9 % of total exports. p In April, Petrochem subsidiary Saudi Polymers Co. resumes production (Source: Argaam)  National Petrochemicals Co. Co ’ss (Petrochem) said a temporary and non non‐scheduled scheduled shutdown of Saudi Polymers Co. Co has ended, ended and that production restarted on May 26.  On May 11, Petrochem announced a non‐scheduled production halt at its 65%‐owned Polymers company. Relevant financial impact is expected to reflect on Q2 earnings, the company added. Saudi Steel Pipe wins SAR 97 million Aramco contract (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Steel Pipe Co. (SSP) won a contract valued at more than SAR 97 million to supply Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Saudi Aramco) with steel casing pipes, the company said in a statement to the bourse.  The contract will begin in Q4 2017 while the financial impact will begin Q1 2018, it added. The required raw materials will be locally sourced from Saudi Iron and Steel Company (Hadeed), which is 100 percent owned by Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC). GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 5/29/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11