GCC - Equity Market Monitor - 13 June

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA , Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage June 13, 2017 6/13/2017
2. GCC - Equity Market Monitor 20 .0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Daily Return Oman -0.3% Saudi 0.2% UAE (DFM) 1.2% UAE (ADX) 0.3% Kuwait - PI 0.3% Kuwait - Wtd 0.3% Qatar 0.8% Bahrain -0.1% YTD Return -8.1% -5.4% -2.9% -0.8% 17.9% 5.0% -12.5% 8.3% MTD Return -2.0% -0.7% 2.6% 1.9% -0.2% -1.3% -7.7% 0.2% QTD Return -4.3% -2.6% -1.5% 1.5% -3.6% -3.4% -12.1% -2.5% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2
3. MSM - Net Buy /(Sell) Position Top 5 - Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 2.379 million (c. US$ 6.2 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Bank Muscat Banking 496,337 20.9% BUY SELL NET 1,635,148 1,575,647 59,501 Ooredoo Services 280,194 11.8% GCC 88,643 3,055 85,588 United Finance Leasing 217,424 9.1% Arabs 108,534 58,806 49,728 Oman Tel Services 215,911 9.1% OTHERS 546,803 741,620 (194,817) Insurance 209,665 8.8% OMANIS Al Madina Takaful MSM - Lead Indicators Value Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend Yield (%) Indices Monitor Current Closing Previous Closing Daily % MTD % Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,118,103 12.8 1.1 6.0% MSM 30 5,314.19 5,331.07 -0.32% -1.99% -8.10% Financial 3,316,730 8.4 0.9 5.0% Financial 7,957.04 7,947.40 0.12% -1.30% 3.72% Industrial 889,099 12.7 1.3 5.6% Industrial 7,145.79 7,185.36 -0.55% -2.04% -3.53% Services 2,565,537 60.2 1.7 7.1% Services 2,699.87 2,716.07 -0.60% -2.58% -11.73% MSM Shariah 2,395,291 12.8 1.5 6.9% 781.49 784.32 -0.36% -1.48% -10.07% MSM Shariah 6/13/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA Markets Performance Index Global Markets Performance Closing % Chg MENA 13,491.9 -0.9 Egypt Jordan Tunis Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD 1.1 2,160.4 -0.1 -0.7 5,839.3 0.5 2.5 24,493.6 0.0 1.2 530.6 0.4 0.5 99,442.1 0.5 1.9 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 117.6 0.3 -1.2 S&P GCC (USD) 95.7 0.3 -1.2 980.2 -0.5 -2.1 S&P GCC (40 Index)- Price return S&P GCC (40 Index)- Total return 1,594.5 -0.5 -2.1 MSCI GCC 459.6 0.3 -1.0 MSCI Frontier 562.5 -0.4 0.2 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 873.9 -0.3 0.8 MSCI Arabian Index 502.5 0.2 -0.9 %QTD %YTD 3.8 -4.0 5.3 2.6 -1.5 11.8 9.3 -0.5 6.4 0.1 0.1 27.3 -2.3 -3.0 -3.7 -2.8 -2.6 4.7 6.1 -2.3 -3.4 -3.7 -2.3 1.5 -3.6 12.6 16.0 -3.2 Index Closing % Chg Americas S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,429.4 21,235.7 6,175.5 61,700.2 Index Closing Nikkei Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD 1,918.7 -0.2 0.4 3.5 9.6 MSCI World -Ex USA 1,875.1 -0.4 -0.1 4.6 10.9 MSCI Europe- USD 1,665.6 -0.8 -1.2 6.1 13.2 MSCI EM Index 1,008.9 -0.9 0.4 5.3 17.0 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO USD Vs Canadian Dollar USD Vs Japanese Yen USD Vs GBP USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar USD Vs Indian Rupee USD Vs Aus Dollar USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot USD Vs Omani Riyal USD Vs UAE Dirham USD Vs Saudi Riyal USD Vs Kuwait Dinar USD Vs Qatar Riyal USD Vs Bahrain Dinar Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices) US 10+ Yr TR 580.9 -0.2 0.1 3.4 5.4 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 232.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 0.3 -4.3 -6.7 Commodity (Bloomberg) Commodity 81.7 0.1 -1.4 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %QTD %YTD 0.7 1.1 -0.4 -1.6 2.8 2.8 4.5 -5.1 8.5 7.5 14.7 2.4 -0.1 -0.8 0.6 2.6 2.3 3.1 5.2 7.8 10.5 1.2 0.7 0.0 1.1 1.0 -1.1 5.2 7.2 5.2 -2.2 9.7 -6.5 4.1 17.5 17.0 1.5 16.9 -9.6 %QTD %YTD -3.1 5.1 0.2 1.3 0.9 2.5 3.4 1.3 -0.4 0.6 -1.0 0.2 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 -0.7 -0.1 -4.9 6.4 1.1 6.3 2.6 4.1 5.1 2.2 -0.5 5.4 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 -0.6 -0.1 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD Europe 7,511.9 -0.2 5,240.6 -1.1 12,690.4 -1.0 Asia Pacific 19,896.1 -0.1 25,841.9 0.5 31,153.4 0.2 3,151.3 0.4 2,369.7 0.5 1,041.5 0.3 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Global Benchmark Indices -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 %MTD 4 Closing % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 97.226 1.119 1.329 110.010 1.266 8.748 0.969 6.797 7.799 64.470 0.756 13,294.000 3.515 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.304 3.665 0.377 0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.5 1.6 0.7 -1.8 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 1.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0
5. Commodities Performance Index Closing Petrochemical Performance % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD Index Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam Benzene FOB Korea Spot 785.0 745.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot Benzene CFR India Spot NYMEX Crude 46.3 0.4 -4.3 -10.0 -18.5 ICE Brent Crude 48.5 0.4 -4.5 -10.2 -17.5 Crude Oil, Oman 47.3 0.4 -5.2 -8.8 -12.8 NYMEX Natural Gas 3.0 -0.2 -1.7 -9.0 -15.8 148.9 0.1 -6.7 -11.6 -19.5 Precious Metals Gold Spot 1,266.1 0.0 -0.2 1.3 9.9 Silver Spot 16.9 -0.3 -2.4 -7.4 6.2 Platinum Spot 947.2 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 4.8 Palladium Spot 875.5 1.3 7.3 9.6 27.7 Base Metals LME Aluminium-Spot 1,879.5 -1.1 -2.4 -3.7 10.3 LME Copper-Spot 5,743.0 -0.6 1.5 -1.3 4.0 LME Zinc-Spot 2,476.0 -1.6 -4.3 -10.0 -3.2 LME Lead-Spot 2,030.5 -2.3 -3.3 -12.9 1.6 LME Nickel-Spot 8,735.5 -2.1 -2.1 -12.3 -12.3 Steel US - Hot Roll Coil Steel 598.0 -0.3 4.0 -2.0 -1.6 Agriculture Corn - Active Contract 379.0 0.5 1.9 2.0 4.0 Wheat - Active Contract 437.8 0.9 2.0 -0.3 0.8 CBOT - Soya bean 932.8 0.2 1.8 -2.5 -8.5 Shipping Baltic Dry Index 870.0 2.5 %QTD %YTD -3.7 -1.3 -4.3 -7.5 -7.7 -10.2 750.0 -1.3 -7.4 -10.2 755.0 -1.3 -7.4 -10.1 %MTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT) Energy NYMEX Gasoline Closing -0.9 -32.9 -9.5 Condensates (in USD/ MT) European Naptha 405.8 -6.6 -11.7 -12.4 Naphtha C&F Japan 421.3 -3.5 -10.2 -15.2 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 407.3 -5.0 -13.1 -16.2 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot 45.6 -3.6 -10.2 -15.1 Olefins (in USD/ MT) Ethylene Spot 1,125.0 1.4 -5.5 21.6 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 885.0 -9.7 -19.2 -19.9 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 880.0 -9.7 -19.3 -20.0 Propylene FOB Korea Spot 805.0 -6.4 -3.6 -6.9 8.6 Intermediate (in USD/ MT) 2EH CFR Far East Asia 945.0 -1.1 -8.3 2EH CFR South East Asia 965.0 -1.0 -8.1 8.4 DOP CFR Far East Asia 950.0 -3.6 -1.6 -3.6 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -4.8 -6.6 -7.3 Polymers (in USD/ MT) LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT) Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 9,125.0 1,085.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,110.0 0.0 -4.3 -5.1 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,120.0 -0.9 -4.3 -0.9 Urea (in USD/ MT) Urea Price (RMB/ MT) 1,630.0 0.6 -1.8 5.2 UREA Cornbelt 220.0 -2.2 -12.0 -20.0 UREA Middle East 205.0 -2.4 -3.3 -16.3 US Urea Avg. Retail Price 338.1 -3.6 -8.7 -2.1 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 6/13/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News New SEZAD guidelines to support SMEs , Omanisation (Source: Oman Observer)  The Special Economic Zone Authority in Duqm (SEZAD) has issued new regulations to enhance the participation of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the development of the SEZ. This is in accordance with the recommendations of the SME Development Symposium held in Seeh Al Shamikhat in January 2013, the Authority said in a statement.  The new guidelines, which came into force earlier this week, tasks the newly established Department of Partnership and Development (DPD) with ensuring that Omani SMEs benefit from government contracts and projects implemented within the SEZ.  Under the new regulations, contractors are obliged to place advertisements in local daily newspapers featuring details of the subcontracts earmarked exclusively for SME contractors and vendors.  The Partnership and Development Department, for its part, will work in coordination with the consultant and project manager of each project to ensure that contracting opportunities reserved for SMEs are suitably publicised during the implementation phase.  Additionally, contractors are obligated to source their requirement of construction machinery and equipment solely by Omani citizens in line with SEZAD regulations. In this regard, priority shall be given to local inhabitants of the Wilayat of Al Duqm, followed by those of other Wilayats in Wusta Governorate. Likewise, equipment and machinery required for any contract may be procured from the local market.  If unavailable locally, imports will be permitted only in coordination with the Partnership and Development Department.  Those found in breach of the regulations are liable to penalties set out under Article (20) of the Regulation of the Investment Environment in SEZAD, which calls for the suspension of the contract license or the imposition of a fine in lieu.  A separate directive issued by SEZAD also affixes Omanisation percentages for projects implemented within the SEZ. It is set at a minimum of 10 per cent for companies executing government contracts in the SEZ.  The decision also requires the Partnership and Development Department to coordinate with the Manpower Register Authority the collection and tabulation of labour related statistics, as well as ascertain the need for training and skills development, in collaboration with companies operating in the SEZ. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News OPWP seeks legal adviser for coal-fired power plant (Source: Oman Tribune)  Oman Power and Water Procurement (OPWP) is to appoint a consultant to provide legal advisory services for the competitive tendering of a coal-fired independent power plant (IPP).  The tender documents will be provided in electronic format upon evidence of bank transfer or can be collected directly up to June 22. The last date for submission of the documents is July 24, according to a statement.  The proposal for a coal-fired project is part of a shift from use of natural gas for power generation as also for water desalination. In April, OPWP had issued its request for proposals from international consultants for providing financial and commercial advisory services for the development of the coal-based IPP.  The selected consultant will advise OPWP on the scope and capacity of the proposed IPP. It will also look into the environmental and regulatory issues. The latest tender will see the consultant give necessary legal advice to take forward the project.  Duqm is a likely site for the plant, especially in the wake of Duqm Port announcing its plans for dedicated coal berths to handle imports both for potential domestic consumption and transshipment.  The government has been looking at alternatives to gas-based power generation and building a diverse fuel mix as part of a major diversification strategy.  The Sultanate’s peak average annual growth in power demand for the next seven years within the areas of main inter-connected system (MIS) is projected to be 8 per cent, rising from 5,565 megawatt (MW) in 2015 to 9,529 MW in 2022, according to OPWP outlook.  Demand for power is growing mainly due to population driven residential growth, overall economic growth, development in industrial estates/free zones and tourism projects. The Sultanate’s total population touched 4.4 million by the end of May this year.  The main interconnected system region extends throughout the governorates of Muscat and Buraimi, and most of the governorates of Al Batinah North, Al Batinah South, Al Dakhiliya, Al Sharqiyah North, Al Sharqiya South and Al Dhahirah, serving around 864,500 electricity customers. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM - Market Watch Source : Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Activity likely to remain range bound… During the last trading day, except Oman and Bahrain rest of the GCC indices closed in green. Oil prices surged marginally as Saudi said it is making significant supply cuts to customers which is likely to improve market sentiments during the day. We expect the MSM Index to open on a flat note for the day and to see rangebound activity. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE News UAE inflation edges up to 2 .2pc during January-May (Source: Trade Arabia)  The inflation rate in consumer prices in the UAE during the first five months of 2017 stood at 2.2%, according to Statistics Centre - Abu Dhabi (SCAD), a report said.  The relative change rate in consumer prices during May hit 2% as compared with the same month last year, Emirates news agency WAM reported, citing a SCAD statement.  SCAD attributed the increase to a 3.5% rise in prices of housing, water, electricity, gas and other types of fuels, which accounted for 55.3% of the total price hike during the first five months of the year comparatively with the same period in 2016.  The hike in transportation prices claimed 33.1% of the total rise during the first five months of 2017 as compared to the same period in 2016.  Prices in the recreation and culture category dropped by 9 per cent during the first five months comparatively with the same period in 2016, contributing by 19.3 per cent to reducing the inflation rise. UAE bank revenues, lending up despite pressures (Source: Arabian Business)  UAE banks grew their loan books in the first quarter of this year, leading to an overall increase in revenues and a healthier industry outlook, a new report has found.  Lending across the UAE’s largest listed banks grew by 2.13% quarter on quarter in the first quarter of 2017 compared to -0.13% the previous quarter, according to Alvarez & Marsal’s second UAE Banking Pulse monitor.  The professional services firm compared the quarterly data of the 11 banks – including National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD), Emirates NBD, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) and Mashreq Bank, among others – and found the majority were taking a balanced approach of growing their loan books and deposit bases simultaneously.  Eight of the top 11 banks had loan to deposit ratios (LDRs) of between 80 percent and 100 percent, the industry’s “green zone”, A&M said. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC News Al Hokair Group , Jabal Omar ink SAR 500 mln lease contract (Source: Argaam)  Abdulmohsen Al Hokair Group for Tourism and Development Co.’s leasing agreement with Jabal Omar Development Company for the Jabal Omar Marriott Hotel is valued at SAR 500 million, both companies said in separate statements.  Al Hokair Group signed the contract with Jabal Omar on June 9. The annual lease is valued at SAR 33.5 million from the first to the 14th year.  Meanwhile, the 15th year lease is valued at SAR 31 million, the statements added. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage - Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 6/13/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11