Oman Weekly Market Monitor - 5 March
Oman Weekly Market Monitor - 5 March
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- Weekly Market Monitor March 5, 2017 Index Performance MSM 30 . Financial Industrial Services Current Week Previous Week WTD (%) YTD (%) Beta (Yr) 5,815.06 5,849.52 ‐0.59% 0.56% 1.000 8,181.27 8,239.52 ‐0.71% 6.64% 1.211 7,970.58 7,903.45 0.85% 7.60% 0.732 3,031.41 3,026.58 0.16% ‐0.89% 0.595 Profit booking trend seen… The week gone by saw the MSM30 Index end lower by 0.59% at 5,815.06 points. MSM struggled this week due to selling pressure brought by negative sentiments resulting from changes in tax laws and its impact on company earnings and dividends. Special deals in Oman Government Bonds and Bank Sohar this week bloated the market turnover this week. For the week, the Financial Index appreciated by 0.63%. The Industrial Index remained flat with marginal gain of 0.01% for the week. The Services Index ended the week lower by 0.25%. Source: MSM, GBCM Research MSM 30 Index Performance Vs Turnover 30,000 In RO 000s 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 ‐ Turnover 23‐Feb 6,974 26‐Feb 4,590 27‐Feb 27,747 28‐Feb 8,450 1‐Mar 12,480 2‐Mar 4,633 MSM 30 5,850 5,834 5,821 5,780 5,791 5,815 S MSM Weekly Trading Activity ‐ Total Turnover RO 57.900 million (c. $ 150.5 million) Fig. In RO Omanis GCC Arabs Buy Sell Net Buy / (Sell) 56,195,378 51,509,006 4,686,373 342,004 3,475,048 (3,133,044) 163,119 128,356 34,763 1,199,603 Others 2,787,695 (1,588,092) Source: MSM, GBCM Research Page | 1 In terms of market activity, a total of 166.77 million shares got traded during the week amounting to an aggregate turnover of RO 57.900 million as against RO 28.719 million in previous week. In terms of participation, Omani Investors remained as net buyers to an extent of RO 4.686 million. GCC and Foreign Investors emerged as net sellers to an extent of RO 3.133 million and RO 1.588 million respectively. 5,860 5,850 5,840 5,830 5,820 5,810 5,800 5,790 5,780 5,770 5,760 25,000 GBCM Research Oman Telecom Data – January 2017 The sultanate’s total number of fixed telephone lines stood at 481,029 at the end of January as against 465,721 registered by the end of 2016, a 3.3% growth. The number of mobile subscribers as at the end of Jan stood at 6.89 million constituting an increase of 0.3% compared to figures at the end of 2016. The number of Internet subscribers stood at 289,525 at the end of Jan 2017, while the number of fixed broadband subscribers including DSL and leased lines stood at 287,010. Active mobile broadband subscribers declined by 4.1% to 3.775 million compared end of 2016. (Source: Muscat Daily) Outlook for the upcoming week… During the previous trading week, we saw all the GCC markets ending on a negative note amid traders selling pressure on dividend related adjustments and also a mixed set of global cues. UAE (DFM ‐1.4% WTD, ADX ‐1.2% WTD) and Qatari (‐1.9% WTD) equities underperformed as compared to the other markets. Oman also ended lower for the week (‐0.6% WTD) amid selling pressure seen in the frontline stocks (esp. telecom sector) amid announcement of the tax law (increase in corporate tax and introduction of withholding tax) and also weakening outlook. We expect the MSM and the regional markets to open on a flattish note for the week and to see range bound trade during the coming sessions. We do expect the upcoming US Fed rate increase to impact the flows to the regional markets and this may impact the short term performance. We see technical support for MSM at 5,780 points and resistance around 5,875 levels.
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research Value Leaders‐Weekly 30,000 25,000 Top Five Gainers/ Losers for the Week 50% 43.1% 20,000 15,000 15.2% 10,000 5,000 Al Madina Inv 40% Al Hassan Engr 35% Gulf Inv Ser 30% Galfar Engr 25% Raysut Cement ‐2.4% 20% 2.9% 15% 5.1% 4.6% 10% 4.6% 5% Govt Bond ‐52 Bank Sohar Ooredoo Bank Muscat Omantel ‐3.5% ‐3.3% ‐3.2% Takaful Oman bank Sohar Bonds 10.0% 0% ‐4.2% Oman Inv & Fin 5.2% 3.9% 0 45% Oman Textiles Oman Fisheries 18.0% MSM Sectoral Market cap for the week Volume Leaders‐ Weekly 60,000 50,000 40,000 33.1% Other Services, 5.1% 35% 30% 25% 20% Power Utilities, 12.3% Banking, 34.0% 30,000 20,000 15% 9.7% Telecom, 15.9% 7.6% 7.4% 6.7% Investments, 6.3% 10,000 5% 0 Bank Sohar 10% Bank Nizwa Oman Orix Leasing Oman Fisheries Al Madina Takaful Oil Marketing, 4.8% Leasing, 3.1% Other Industry, 11.5% 0% Insurance, 1.4% Engg & Const., 0.5% Cement, 5.1% Source: MSM, GBCM Research Page | 2 Source: MSM, GBCM Research Brokerage, 0.3%
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research MSM ‐ Value Indicators GCC‐ Market Performance for the week PER 6,710,200 9.7 1.2 5.3% 10.0% 3,458,580 9.0 0.9 4.5% 5.0% 1,010,964 16.1 1.4 4.7% 0.0% 2,925,816 10.3 1.7 6.3% ‐5.0% 2,745,009 11.1 1.6 6.0% MSM 30 Index Financial Industrial Services MSM Shariah ` Dividend Yield (%) 20.0% Mkt. Cap (RO’000s) Value Indicators P/BV Source: MSM, GBCM Research Last Week WTD (%) NYMEX WTI Crude 53.3 54.0 ‐1.2% ICE Brent Crude 55.9 56.0 ‐0.2% Crude Oil, Oman 54.8 55.3 ‐0.9% NYMEX Natural Gas 2.8 2.8 1.4% 165.3 151.5 9.1% NYMEX Gasoline Gold Spot 1,234.6 1,257.2 ‐1.8% Silver Spot 18.0 18.4 ‐2.1% LME Aluminium (Spot) 1,883.8 1,885.8 ‐0.1% LME Copper (Spot) 5,905.8 5,915.0 ‐0.2% LME Zinc (Spot) 2,767.0 2,825.0 ‐2.1% Hot Rolled Coil ‐ Steel 620.0 620.0 0.0% CBOT Corn 380.8 370.8 2.7% CBOT Wheat 453.5 448.0 1.2% 1,037.5 1,024.3 1.3% CBOT Soyabean Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (Abu Dhabi) WTD (%) ‐0.6% ‐0.4% ‐1.4% YTD (%) 0.6% ‐2.7% 1.5% Qatar Bahrain ‐1.2% ‐0.6% ‐1.9% ‐0.6% 1.1% 17.7% 2.7% 9.9% The Board of Raysut Cement has proposed a cash dividend of 65% for FY 2016, subject to necessary approvals at its forthcoming AGM to be held on 14th March 2017. (Source: MSM) The Board of Omantel has proposed a cash dividend of 70% for FY 2016, subject to necessary approvals at its forthcoming AGM to be held on 30th March 2017. The Board has further proposed to pay an interim cash dividend of 30% in the month of August 2017. (Source: MSM) GCC ‐ Weekly News Watch… Ahli United Bank (AUB) reported a net profit attributable to its equity shareholders of US$ 570.6 million for the year 2016, representing a growth of 6.2% compared to a net profit of US$ 537.2 million in 2015. The net profit in Q4/2016 was US$ 128.5 million as compared to US$ 118.0 million in Q4/2015. (Source: Gulf Base) Bank ABC Islamic announced that its net profit for the year ending on December 31, 2016 was |US$ 22.9 million, 16% higher than previous year’s net profit of US$ 19.7 million. Net profit for the fourth quarter of 2016 was US$ 6.1 million, 70% higher than the US$ 3.6 million reported for the same period in 2015. (Source: Gulf Base) Source: Bloomberg; GBCM Research Page | 3 Kuwait Oman ‐ Weekly News watch… Current Week Oman Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Commodities Performance for the week Commodities 15.0%
- Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage – Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727| Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728| Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. Page | 4
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