GCC - Equity Market Monitor - 26 April

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA , Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage April 26, 2017 4/26/2017
2. GCC - Equity Market Monitor 25 .0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait - PI Daily Return -0.1% -0.9% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% Kuwait Wtd -0.4% YTD Return -5.5% -4.1% -2.8% 0.4% 18.8% MTD Return -1.5% -1.2% -1.3% 2.7% -2.8% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research, Oman closing as on 24th April 2017, markets was closed yesterday GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Qatar Bahrain 0.0% 0.1% 6.6% -2.7% 9.5% -2.0% -2.2% -1.4%
3. MSM - Net Buy /(Sell) Position Top 5 - Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 2.347 million (c. US$ 6.1 million) Figures In RO OMANIS GCC Arabs OTHERS Value Leaders Turnover (RO) Market Share Bank Muscat Banking 310,135 13.2% Banking 243,207 10.4% Insurance 226,531 9.7% BUY SELL NET 1,806,545 1,883,745 (77,200) Bank Sohar 316,312 25,585 290,727 Al Madina Takaful 4,887 23,792 (18,905) Oman Fisheries Services 181,289 7.7% 218,864 413,487 (194,623) Oman Tel Services 175,598 7.5% MSM - Lead Indicators Value Indicators ** Sector Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend Yield (%) Indices Monitor Current Closing Previous Closing Daily % MTD % Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,297,101 10.0 1.1 5.9% MSM 30 5,466.61 5,474.54 -0.14% -1.51% -5.47% Financial 3,324,059 8.7 0.9 5.0% Financial 7,990.17 7,994.33 -0.05% 1.99% 4.15% Industrial 933,527 15.7 1.3 5.3% Industrial 7,408.54 7,452.39 -0.59% -5.03% 0.02% Services 2,701,297 11.5 1.6 6.8% Services 2,803.60 2,807.23 -0.13% -2.84% -8.34% MSM Shariah 2,509,676 10.2 1.5 6.5% 797.95 799.63 -0.21% -5.40% -8.18% MSM Shariah 4/26/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA Markets Performance Index Global Markets Performance Closing % Chg MENA 12,583.1 0.3 Egypt Jordan Tunis Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD %QTD %YTD -3.2 -2.8 1.5 -0.1 -3.2 6.4 1.9 0.8 2.5 -2.5 -1.6 21.1 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2 -0.6 -1.2 0.5 0.7 -1.3 -2.1 -1.9 0.2 3.8 -2.2 8.1 10.1 -2.3 -3.2 2,186.7 -0.5 -2.8 5,625.1 -0.2 1.5 23,852.0 -0.1 -0.1 521.9 -0.4 -3.2 94,634.9 0.9 6.4 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 119.2 -0.5 -1.0 S&P GCC (USD) 97.6 -0.5 -1.1 0.0 -1.2 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return 1,005.5 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return 1,631.5 0.0 -0.6 MSCI GCC 466.4 -0.6 -1.2 MSCI Frontier 539.8 -0.3 0.5 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 829.3 -0.2 0.7 MSCI Arabian Index 507.4 -0.5 -1.3 Index Closing % Chg Americas S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,388.6 20,996.1 6,025.5 65,148.4 Index Closing Nikkei Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD 1,882.0 0.6 1.5 1.5 7.5 MSCI World -Ex USA 1,831.7 0.5 2.1 2.1 8.3 MSCI Europe- USD 1,624.9 0.8 3.5 3.5 10.5 982.7 1.2 2.5 2.5 14.0 MSCI EM Index Dollar Index USD Vs EURO USD Vs Canadian Dollar USD Vs Japanese Yen USD Vs GBP USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar USD Vs Indian Rupee USD Vs Aus Dollar USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot USD Vs Omani Riyal USD Vs UAE Dirham USD Vs Saudi Riyal USD Vs Kuwait Dinar USD Vs Qatar Riyal USD Vs Bahrain Dinar Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices) US 10+ Yr TR 566.0 -0.9 0.8 0.8 2.7 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 228.8 -0.4 0.4 0.4 -1.1 -1.5 -4.0 Commodity (Bloomberg) Commodity 84.0 0.0 -1.5 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %QTD %YTD 1.1 1.6 1.9 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.9 0.3 6.7 6.2 11.9 8.2 -0.6 3.0 1.3 -0.6 3.0 1.3 1.9 8.5 8.6 1.9 2.0 1.6 -2.4 2.1 0.6 1.9 2.0 1.6 -2.4 2.1 0.6 0.8 11.8 13.0 1.4 8.9 -2.7 %QTD %YTD -1.6 2.7 -1.8 0.1 2.3 2.3 1.0 0.0 -0.1 1.3 -1.4 0.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 -3.4 4.0 -0.9 5.1 4.0 3.9 2.7 0.9 -0.3 6.1 4.3 1.4 -1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD Europe 7,275.6 0.2 5,277.9 0.2 12,467.0 0.1 Asia Pacific 19,264.5 1.0 24,598.9 0.6 30,088.6 0.5 3,145.7 0.4 2,206.3 0.4 1,120.9 0.4 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Global Benchmark Indices 0.6 1.1 0.7 1.2 %MTD 4 Closing % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 98.768 1.094 1.356 111.320 1.284 8.766 0.992 6.886 7.783 63.995 0.752 13,281.000 3.578 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.304 3.641 0.377 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -1.6 2.7 -1.8 0.1 2.3 2.3 1.0 0.0 -0.1 1.3 -1.4 0.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
5. Commodities Performance Index Closing Petrochemical Performance % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD NYMEX Crude 49.5 -0.2 -3.1 -3.1 -12.4 ICE Brent Crude 52.1 -0.1 -2.8 -2.8 -10.9 Crude Oil, Oman 51.1 0.8 -1.4 -1.4 -5.8 NYMEX Natural Gas 3.0 0.2 -4.4 -4.4 -13.9 160.5 -1.1 -5.7 -5.7 -14.2 Precious Metals Gold Spot 1,264.1 0.0 1.2 1.2 9.7 Silver Spot 17.6 0.0 -3.6 -3.6 10.6 Platinum Spot 954.9 -0.1 0.5 0.5 5.7 Palladium Spot 799.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 16.9 Base Metals LME Aluminium-Spot 1,954.8 0.9 0.1 0.1 14.7 LME Copper-Spot 5,677.5 0.9 -2.4 -2.4 2.8 LME Zinc-Spot 2,591.5 0.1 -5.8 -5.8 1.3 LME Lead-Spot 2,169.0 0.3 -6.9 -6.9 8.5 LME Nickel-Spot 9,270.5 0.7 -6.9 -6.9 -7.0 Steel US - Hot Roll Coil Steel 638.0 0.0 2.9 2.9 4.8 Agriculture Corn - Active Contract 372.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.3 Wheat - Active Contract 428.0 0.2 -2.5 -2.5 -1.4 CBOT - Soya bean 962.3 -0.3 0.5 0.5 -5.6 Shipping Baltic Dry Index 1,154.0 -1.4 Closing %MTD %QTD %YTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT) Energy NYMEX Gasoline Index -11.0 -11.0 20.1 Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam 860.0 4.9 4.9 1.2 Benzene FOB Korea Spot 805.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 810.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 Benzene CFR India Spot 815.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 2.3 1.4 European Naptha Condensates (in USD/ MT) 469.8 2.3 Naphtha C&F Japan 462.5 -1.4 -1.4 -6.9 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 452.3 -3.5 -3.5 -7.0 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot 50.2 -1.2 -1.2 -6.6 Olefins (in USD/ MT) Ethylene Spot 1,180.0 -0.8 -0.8 27.6 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,155.0 5.5 5.5 4.5 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,150.0 5.5 5.5 4.6 805.0 -3.6 -3.6 -6.9 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Intermediate (in USD/ MT) 2EH CFR Far East Asia 960.0 -6.8 -6.8 10.3 2EH CFR South East Asia 990.0 -5.7 -5.7 11.2 DOP CFR Far East Asia 985.0 2.1 2.1 0.0 Polymers (in USD/ MT) LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT) Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 8,610.0 1,130.0 -5.9 -0.9 -5.9 -0.9 -11.8 -3.4 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,140.0 -1.7 -1.7 -2.6 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,160.0 -0.9 -0.9 2.7 Urea (in USD/ MT) 1,560.0 -6.0 -6.0 0.7 Urea Price (RMB/ MT) UREA Cornbelt 245.0 -2.0 -2.0 -10.9 UREA Middle East 221.0 4.3 4.3 -9.8 US Urea Avg. Retail Price 364.4 -1.6 -1.6 5.5 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 4/26/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Bank Sohar looks to raise $250m syndicated loan (Source: Oman Tribune)  Bank Sohar has mandated Bahrain-based Bank ABC as the sole bookrunner and lead arranger for a $250-million three-year syndicated term loan facility.  Bank Sohar will utilise the amount for general funding purposes, according to a statement from the Bahrain bank.  Ahead of general syndication, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Axis Bank and Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft made a commitment to join the facility as initial mandated lead arrangers. The general syndication is expected to close by the end of May. 100m-rial dairy project to give Buraimi a fillip (Source: Oman Tribune)  Al BuraImi’s strategy to become a key centre for logistics and the food supply chain will be impelled by Mazoon Dairy Company’s (MDC) 100-million-rial dairy project, which is set to be operational in the coming months.  Governor of Al Buraimi HE Sayyid Ibrahim Al Busaidi told Oman Tribune recently that in three years his governorate would become an important centre for dairy products after MDC’s project becomes operational.  “The dairy industry will require substantial investments in cold storage and since Al Buraimi is close to the border with the UAE, it is also a place where food imported into Oman can be stored before distribution in the country. That will attract additional investment in cold storage and warehouses and make it an important player in the food supply chain,” he said.  The MDC project will begin with 4,000 cows and will have 25,000 cows in 2026 producing 202 million litres of milk. It will reduce the country’s dependence on imported milk from 69 per cent in 2014 to 13 per cent in 2026. Realty sector to stay on course (Source: Oman Tribune)  The real estate market will witness increased activity during the coming period, especially as a number of tourism and real estate projects are being implemented in the Governorate of Muscat and other governorates, according to real estate brokers in the capital.  In the first three months of the year, Governorate of Muscat saw a slight decline in the prices in some areas while the prices in some areas remained constant, while some areas saw increasing demand for land, villas and apartments, according to some brokers. There has been rising demand for shops and office spaces in Al Seeb, Al Qurum, Baushar and Al Azaiba areas, they said. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Realty sector to stay on course (Contd) (Source: Oman Tribune)  The coming period will witness many real estate deals as a result of the many projects that are currently under implementation which will encourage and motivate investors to drive the real estate market, the brokers said adding that the current market movement is natural and healthy for the real estate sector.  To offset the price rise in the current period so that property prices are the same as before, there may be a slight increase in property prices, they said. CBO issues bonds worth 150m rials (Source: Oman Tribune)  The Central Bank of Oman (CBO) has announced the release of issue No. 53 of the Government Development Bonds through a competitive auction of 150 million rials for a six-year maturity at a coupon rate of 5.25 per cent per annum.  The bid will be open on May 2 and will be closed on May 8. Muscat airport passenger traffic rises by 15.9pc (Source: Oman Tribune)  The number of passengers through Muscat and Salalah international airports increased by 15.9 per cent and 31 per cent respectively during the first quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2016, according to a report from the National Centre for Statistics and Information.  The total number of passengers was 3,692,120 in the same period.  The number of passengers through Muscat International Airport, including the transfer and transit, reached 3,358,421 by March compared with 2,897,726 passengers during the same period in 2016.  The passengers travelling through Salalah Airport reached 333,699 passengers by March, compared to 255,686 during the same period last year. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. MSM - Market Watch Source : Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Lackluster activity to prevail… During the previous trading session, the MSM30 Index ended the day lower by 0.14% at 5,466.61 points amid dull volumes. For the day we expect the market to open flat and expect the trading activity to remain lackluster owing to lack of any positive trigger in the markets. MSM continue to trade closer to its support of 5,470 levels, breaking this would led to negative sentiments. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. UAE News Etisalat reports Q1 results (Source: Argaam)  mirates Telecommunications Group Co. (Etisalat) reported a net profit of AED 2.1 billion for Q1 2017, up 5% (YoY) due to lower depreciation and amortization, lower forex losses, and a decline in royalty charges.  These factors, however, were partially offset by a higher share of losses from associates and higher net finance costs.  Meanwhile, revenues dipped 3 percent YoY to AED 12.5 billion, impacted by unfavorable exchange rate movements, mainly in Egypt.  Etisalat’s aggregate subscriber base reached 159 million, reflecting a net loss of 4.9 million subscribers (a 3 percent YoY decline), attributed to subscriber disconnection following regulatory mandated registration in various markets. DU reports Q1 results (Source: Trade Arabia)  Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company (du) has posted revenues of Dh3.17 billion ($863 million) during the first quarter (Q1) of the year, compared to Dh3.08 billion of Q1 2016, marking an increase of 2.5%.  Net profit before royalty decreased by 16.7 per cent to Dh851.2 million, compared with Dh1.02 billion during Q1 2016.  The number of mobile subscribers reached 8.35 million during the period, compared to 8.09 million during Q1 2016, an increase of 3.2%. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. GCC News Yansab reports Q1 2017 results (Source: Argaam)  Yanbu National Petrochemical Co. (Yansab) reported a net profit of SAR 608.2 million for Q1 2017, a 44.2 percent year-on-year (YoY) jump on higher average selling prices and sales volumes.  Meanwhile, net profit for the first quarter edged down 0.15 percent sequentially, due to a decline in sales volumes and higher feedstock costs. Eastern Cement renews limestone concession for 30 years  (Source: Argaam) Eastern Province Cement Co. has received on Monday a renewal of its limestone concession for its plant in Jubail, near Al-Khurasaniyah for 30 years starting from January 9, 2015, the company said in a statement to Tadawul. Saudi housing ministry in final stages to ink 35 new deals (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Arabia's housing ministry is close to signing 35 new contracts with local and international home builders, as part of its public-private partnership (PPP) program, Prince Saud Bin Talal, adviser and general supervisor at the agency for housing at the ministry said.  The ministry has already signed memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with 30 local firms and five foreign construction companies.  Prince Saud added that the initiatives will help provide over 280,000 housing products, which will be materialized in 2018.  The price of all housing products will range between SAR 200,000 and SAR 700,000. Saudi Arabia posts SAR 29 bln trade surplus in February (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Arabia's trade balance recorded a surplus of SAR 29.18 billion in February 2017, versus a deficit of SAR 403 million in the same month last year, official data compiled by Argaam showed.  Total exports jumped 49% (YoY) to SAR 65.79 billion in February, while imports fell 18% YoY to SAR 36.6 billion.  The increase in exports was driven by a 75% YoY rise in oil exports - which account for 80.8% of the kingdom’s total exports. Non-oil exports, however, dropped 9% YoY to SAR 12.6 billion. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. | Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage - Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 4/26/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 11