GCC Equity Market Monitor - 13 April

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing GBCM  Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA, Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage g g April 13, 2017 4/13/2017
2. GCC  ‐ Equity Market Monitor 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% ‐5.0% ‐10.0% Daily Return YTD Return YTD Return MTD Return Oman Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (ADX) Kuwait ‐ PI 0.1% ‐3 9% ‐3.9% 0.1% 0.9% ‐1 5% ‐1.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0 3% 0.3% 1.7% ‐0.2% 0 2% 0.2% 2.5% 0.2% 22 5% 22.5% 0.2% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2 Kuwait ‐ Wtd ‐0.4% 10 6% 10.6% 1.7% Qatar Bahrain 0.7% 0 5% 0.5% 0.9% ‐0.4% 11 2% 11.2% 0.1%
3. MSM  ‐ Net Buy/(Sell) Position Top 5 ‐ Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 2.76 million (c. US$ 7.2 million) Figures In RO OMANIS GCC Arabs OTHERS Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Bank Muscat Banking 1,071,551 38.8% BUY SELL NET 1,874,929 1,874,929  1,814,300 1,814,300  60,629 60,629  Al Anwar Holding Al Anwar Holding Inv Hldg Inv Hldg 323 346 323,346 11 7% 11.7% 440,557  36,371  404,186  Ominvest Inv Hldg 250,578 9.1% 6,890  12,809  (5,919) Omantel Services 238,001 8.6% 437,559  896,455  (458,896) Bank Nizwa Banking 168,925 6.1% MSM ‐ Lead Indicators Value  Indicators ** Value Leaders Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance y PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend  Yield (%) Indices  Monitor Current Closing Previous  Daily %  MTD %  Closing Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,402,923  10.2 1.1 5.8% MSM 30 5,557.36 5,549.95 0.13% 0.12% ‐3.90% Financial 3,325,898  8.7 0.9 5.0% Financial 8,009.50 7,979.23 0.38% 2.24% 4.40% Industrial 984,680  16.5 1.4 5.0% Industrial 7,638.25 7,680.47 ‐0.55% ‐2.08% 3.12% Services 2,753,159  11.7 1.6 6.7% Services 2,841.09 2,846.48 ‐0.19% ‐1.54% ‐7.12% MSM Shariah 2,604,349  10.6 1.6 6.3% 826.21 829.40 ‐0.38% ‐2.05% ‐4.93% MSM Shariah 4/13/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA  Markets Performance Index  Global Markets Performance Closing   MENA  % Chg %MTD %YTD   ‐0.1 ‐1.1 1.8 ‐0.6 ‐3.4 2.3 5.2 2.5 2.9 ‐2.9 ‐1.8 16.4 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.8 3.3 6.7 0.6 8.8 10.0 0.4 Egypt Jordan Tunis  Morocco Palestine Turkey 12,984.4 ‐0.1 2,225.2 ‐0.4 5,645.5 0.8 23,746.3 0.3 520.8 ‐0.4 90,952.2 0.1 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 122.4 0.6 S&P GCC (USD) 100.2 0.6 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return  1,035.8 0.2 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return  1,677.0 0.2 MSCI GCC MSCI GCC 479.5 0.7 MSCI Frontier  543.5 ‐0.2 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 828.6 ‐0.2 MSCI Arabian Index 521.0 0.6 Index  Closing   Americas  % Chg %MTD %YTD   S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,344.9 20,591.9 5,836.2 63,891.7 ‐0.4 ‐0.3 ‐0.5 ‐0.7 ‐0.8 ‐0.3 ‐1.3 ‐1.7 4.7 4.2 8.4 6.1 ‐0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 ‐0.4 ‐1.3 2.9 4.9 5.9 ‐1.1 ‐0.1 ‐0 0.2 2 0.1 0.6 ‐1.1 ‐2.9 0.8 ‐0 0.1 1 1.7 ‐0.9 ‐3.1 ‐4.0 10.4 11 1 11.1 5.6 5.7 ‐6.4 %MTD %YTD %YTD  ‐0.3 0.2 0.6 2.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 ‐0.6 0.5 ‐0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ‐2.1 1.5 1.6 7.4 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.0 ‐0.2 5.6 5.2 1.7 ‐3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 Europe FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Asia Pacific Nikkei  Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia Global Benchmark Indices Index Closing  % Chg %MTD %YTD  1,843.0 ‐0.3 ‐0.6 5.2 MSCI World ‐Ex MSCI World  Ex USA USA 1,787.8 ‐0.1 ‐0.3 5.7 MSCI Europe‐ USD 1,560.8 0.1 ‐0.6 6.1 958.2 0.4 0.0 11.1 MSCI EM Index Dollar Index USD Vs EURO  USD Vs Canadian Dollar  USD Vs Japanese Yen  USD Vs GBP  USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc  USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar  USD Vs Indian Rupee  USD Vs Aus Dollar  USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah  USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot  USD Vs Omani Riyal  USD Vs UAE Dirham  USD Vs Saudi Riyal  USD Vs Kuwait Dinar  USD Vs Qatar Riyal  USD Vs Bahrain Dinar  Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices)  US 10+ Yr TR 574 2 574.2 07 0.7 22 2.2 42 4.2 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 229.1 0.0 0.5 ‐1.0 1.0 ‐1.5 Commodity (Bloomberg)  Commodity  86.2 0.4 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing 18,353.7 24,296.9 29 591 7 29,591.7 3,277.9 2,141.3 1,078.7 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD , 7,349.0 5,101.1 12,154.7 4 Closing Closing  % Chg % Chg In Comparison with USD 100.040 1.067 1.323 108.890 1.256 8.952 1.002 6.877 7.772 64.294 0.758 13254.000 3.649 0.385 3.673 3.750 0.305 3.640 0.377 ‐0.7 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
5. Commodities  Performance Index  Petrochemical Performance Closing   % Chg %MTD %YTD  NYMEX Crude 53.1 ‐0.1 4.9 ‐5.3 ICE Brent Crude 55.9 0.0 4.4 ‐4.4 Crude Oil, Oman  54.7 ‐0.7 5.4 0.8 NYMEX Natural Gas  3.2 ‐0.6 ‐0.7 ‐10.6 174.3 0.1 2.3 ‐6.8 Precious Metals Gold Spot  1,285.9 ‐0.1 2.9 11.6 Silver Spot 18.5 0.1 1.4 16.4 Platinum Spot  974.6 0.1 2.5 7.9 Palladium Spot  803.5 0.9 0.7 17.5 Base Metals  LME Aluminium‐Spot 1 884 0 1,884.0 ‐1.1 11 ‐3.5 35 10 6 10.6 LME Copper‐Spot 5,601.3 ‐2.4 ‐3.7 1.4 LME Zinc‐Spot 2,589.0 1.7 ‐5.9 1.2 LME Lead‐Spot 2,246.5 ‐0.1 ‐3.6 12.4 LME Nickel‐Spot 9 679 5 9,679.5 ‐1.1 11 ‐2.8 28 ‐2.9 29 Steel  655.0 US ‐ Hot Roll Coil Steel  0.0 4.0 %YTD Benzene FOB Korea Spot 840.0 4.4 1.2 Benzene CFR Japan Spot 845.0 4.3 1.2 Benzene CFR India Spot 850.0 4.3 1.2 4.8 4.0 Condensates (in USD/ MT)  European Naptha  481.7 Naphtha C&F Japan  497.0 6.0 0.1 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 480.9 2.6 ‐1.1 p g p p Naphtha fob Singapore Spot  53.9 6.2 0.4 ‐2.1 26.0 Olefins (in USD/ MT)  Ethylene Spot  1,165.0 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 1,125.0 2.7 1.8 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 1,120.0 2.8 1.8 820 0 820.0 ‐1.8 18 ‐5.2 52 Propylene FOB Korea Spot Propylene FOB Korea Spot Intermediate (in USD/ MT)  2EH CFR Far East Asia 1,015.0 ‐1.5 16.7 2EH CFR South East Asia 1,035.0 ‐1.4 16.3 960.0 ‐0.5 ‐2.5 DOP CFR Far East Asia Polymers (in USD/ MT)  0.1 ‐6.2 0.9 ‐1.7 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,160.0 0.0 ‐0.9 y p Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,170.0 , 0.0 3.5 1,600.0 ‐3.6 3.2 UREA Cornbelt 245.0 ‐2.0 ‐10.9 UREA Middle East 212.0 0.0 ‐13.5 US Urea Avg Retail Price US Urea Avg. Retail Price 364 4 364.4 ‐1.6 16 56 5.6 36 3.6 Wheat ‐ Active Contract  447.8 0.3 2.0 3.1 CBOT ‐ Soya bean  954.5 ‐5.7 Shipping  ‐1 2 ‐1.2 2.9 9,155.0 15 1.5 16 1.6 6.7 1,150.0 04 0.4 0.9 875.0 Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 377 5 377.5 0.7 Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam  7.4 C Corn ‐ A i C Active Contract  B lti D I d Baltic Dry Index  %MTD LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT)  Agriculture  1 282 0 1,282.0 Closing A Aromatics (in USD/ MT)  i (i USD/ MT) Energy  NYMEX Gasoline  Index  33 4 33.4 Urea (in USD/ MT)  Urea Price (RMB/ MT)  Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 4/13/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News SMN Power Holding reports Q1 2017 results (Source: MSM) Overall review: Below our estimates due to impact on deferred tax liability  Total operating revenues for Q1 stood at RO 17.211 million as compared to RO 24.374 million in the same period of last year, declining by 29% YoY. Operating costs for the quarter declined 36% YoY to RO 12.547 million.  Q1 Profit from operations is at RO 4.469 million as against RO 4.541 million, reporting marginal decline of 1.6% YoY  The Company has recorded a net loss of RO 1.091 million during Q1. The loss is due to the revaluation of the Deferred Tax Liability  following the recent increase in corporate income tax rate from 12% to 15%.  The adjustment has caused a significant increase in tax expense of RO 3.166 million. This reduction in net result will however not impact  the ability of the Company to distribute the projected dividend in 2017 as the company has sufficient retained earnings. Oman Refreshment reports Q1 2017 results (Source: MSM) Overall review: Marginally lower than our estimates  Total revenue of the company for Q1 2017 is at RO 16.161 million as compared to RO 16.565 million, reporting a decline of 2.4%. Q1 total  expenses  remained flat at RO 14.449 million.  Net profit after tax for Q1 is at RO 1.429 million as compared to RO 1.711 million, declining by 16.5% YoY. This is lower than our estimates  of RO 1.6 million.  Al Omaniya Financial reports Q1 2017 results (Source: MSM)  Total revenue for Q1 stood at RO 4.746 million, reporting a decline of 3.2% YoY. While total expenses declined by 3.9% YoY to RO 3.182 million. Net profit after tax for Q1 is at RO 1.329 million as against RO 1.403 million in the same period of last year, decline of 5.3% YoY.  End Q1 2017, the gross installment finance receivables of the company is at RO 244.038 million, an increase of 2.4% YoY. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Renaissance Services reports Q1 2017 results (Source: MSM) Overall review: PAT (after minority) below our estimates  Total revenue for Q1 stood at RO 46.587 million as compared to RO 56.343 million, reporting a decline of 17.3% YoY. This is as compared to our estimates of RO 48 million.  Total operating costs declined by 13.5% YoY to RO 31 million. Net profit from operations for Q1 stood at RO 7.405 million, declining by 38% YoY. The company reported net loss after tax from continuing operations of RO 1.046 million as against profit of RO 2.692 million.  Q1 Net loss after minority stood at RO 2.568 million as compared to reported profit of RO 451K in the same period last year. This is below our estimates of loss of RO 1.5 million. Al Madina Takaful reports Q1 2017 results (Source: MSM) Overall review: Reasonable set of numbers  Q1 2017 surplus from Takaful operations before Wakala fees stood at RO 1.050 million as compared to RO 913K in the same period of last year, an increase of 15% YoY  Wakala fees of the company for Q1 2017 increased to RO 1.57 million as compared to RO 1.285 million in the same period last year. While investment income for the quarter remained flat at RO 237K.  Q1 Net profit after tax for shareholders is at RO 786K as compared to RO 463K in the same period of last year, an increase of 70% YoY. United Finance reports Q1 2017 results (Source: MSM)  End Q1 2017, total assets stood at RO 117.825 million, reporting a decline of 6% YoY. Net installment finance debtors declined 6% YoY to RO 112.856 million. While total equity increased by 4% YoY to RO 43.6 million  Total income for Q1 declined by 11% YoY to RO 2.807 million. While total expenses increased 2% YoY to RO 2.050 million. Q1 2017 Net profit after tax stood at RO 757K as compared to RO 1.152 million, reporting a decline of 34% YoY GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. Oman News Bank Muscat (Operating Profit‐ in line, PAT‐ Above our estimates) (Source: MSM) Key positives  Deposits grew by 1.8% QoQ, more in line with our estimates. While loan book grew by 6% QoQ. The loans to deposits of the bank lower to 105.4% levels (end Q1) as compared to 106.7% levels at the end of 2016.  As per our crude estimates, the net interest margins of the bank is at 2.7% levels, revealing an increase 5‐7 bps on a YoY basis, while remain flat on a QoQ basis.  Overall estimated cost of risk for Q1 2017 is at 0.49% is lower as compared to our estimates of 0.56%. The bank has reported higher provisions duringg the q p quarter,, while the recoveries also remained stronger g than our estimates. Key negatives  Loan book grew by 0.6% QoQ, lower than our estimates  Lower non‐operating income growth seen during the quarter Overall review‐ Reasonable set of numbers with operating profit came in line with our estimates, while net profit for the quarter is higher than our estimates on higher recoveries. Gulf Hotels reports Q1 2017 results (Source: MSM)  Total revenue of the company for Q1 stood at RO 2.408 million as compared to RO 2.662 million, reporting a decline of 9.5% YoY.  The net profit for the quarter stood at RO 652k as against RO 805kin Q1 2016, a considerable decline of 18.9% YoY GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. Oman News Oman Fisheries reports 2016 /17 results (Source: MSM) Overall review: PAT above our estimates  Total revenue of the company for Q1 stood at RO 27.925 million as compared to RO 25.958 million, a modest increase of 7.6% YoY. This is below our estimates of RO 30 million  Significant improvement in the catchment (during Q3) coupled with cost optimization measures taken which had resulted in considerable drop in the staff costs (RO 798K in Q3 2016‐17 compared to RO 1.117 million in Q3 2015‐16) have boosted the earnings during the year  Net profit after tax for the period stood at RO 1.298 million as compared to loss of RO 446K in the same period of last year. This is Q4,, the p profit stood at RO 416K as against g our estimates of RO 250K. above our estimates of RO 1.100 million. For Q National Detergent reports Q1 2017 results (Source: MSM)  The total sales of the company for Q1 stood at RO 6.207 million, a decline of 1.6% YoY.  Net profit after tax for the period stood at RO 321k as compared to RO 399K in the same period of last year, a significant decline of 19.4%. Dhofar Poultry reports Q1 2017 results  (Source: MSM) Gross revenue of the company for Q1 stood at RO 2.588 million. The company posted Net profit of RO 65k for Q1 2017 as compared to RO 123k in the same period of last year, a significant decline of 46.8%. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. MSM ‐ Market Watch Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Peak earnings season in Oman, Stock specific activity likely to prevail… During the last trading session, we saw most of the regional markets ended on a positive note amid the ongoing earnings season. Oman ended on a flattish note along with dull market participation. participation We estimate the MSM and GCC markets to reveal sideways movement for the last trading day of the week and to see range bound activity with the major Q1 earnings anticipated. In Oman, we saw the first set of Q1 corporate earnings which seems to be mixed in nature. On the technical perspective, MSM see support closer to 5,535 levels. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. UAE  News Mashreq reports Q1 2017 results  (Source: Reuters) Mashreq reported a 2.7% rise in Q1 net profit as bad loans eased. Net profit rose to 546 million dirhams ($148.7 million) up from 532 million.  ashreq said the rise was primarily due to a 15% drop in impairment charges. Nakheel awards $1.14 billion Deira Mall contract (Source: Trade Arabia)  Nakheel has awarded a Dh4.2‐billion ($1.14 billion) contract to United Engineering Construction for building its ambitious Deira Mall, the  biggest shopping, dining and entertainment destination  in terms of retail space in Dubai.  The construction will begin in Q3 2017, with completion set for 2020, said a statement.   With a total built‐up area of 10.3 million sq ft, including a 3.8‐million‐sq‐ft multi‐storey car‐park with 8,400 spaces, the Dh6.1‐billion ($1.66  billion) Deira Mall will feature over 1,000 shops, cafes, restaurants and entertainment outlets across three floors. GBCM Morning Briefing 11
12. UAE  News Saudi debut sukuk set at $9 billion; attracts $33 billion orders (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Arabia has set the final issuance amount for its first international Islamic bond or sukuk at $9 billion, split equally between a five‐year and a 10‐year tranche, the kingdom’s finance ministry said.  The issuance attracted total orders of more than $33 billion (SAR 123.75 billion) and the strong investor interest reflects the strength of the h kingdom’s k d ’ economy, the h ministry added. dd d  Said to be the largest sukuk ever issued, the government sold a $4.5 billion worth of the five‐year sukuk maturing in 2022 and a ten‐year tranche of equal size, maturing in 2027 Zain i Saudi di reports Q1 2017 results l (Source: Reuters)  Zain Saudi reported its first quarterly profit since launching in 2008. Zain Saudi made a net profit of SR 45 million in Q1 as compared with a net loss of SR 250 million in the prior‐year period.  Th company attributed The ib d the h profit fi to a drop d i expenses as a result in l off the h extension i off its i licence li b an another by h 15 years, a rise i in i revenues and a drop in costs due to the cut in mobile termination rates in April 2016. Distribution expenses also fell.  Quarterly revenue reached SR 1.92 billion, up from SR 1.77 billion recorded in the same period a year ago. Ali i raises Alimtiaz i $120 million illi from f H HumanSoft S f stake k sale l (Source: Reuters)  Alimtiaz Investment Group has raised $120 million from the sale of a 10% stake in education provider HumanSoft Holding which it plans to reinvest. It plans to use the money to invest in sectors including education, healthcare and real estate.  Citigroup and Citi d EFG Hermes H acted t d as joint j i t bookrunners b k on the th deal, d l which hi h cutt the th sharia‐compliant h i li t investment i t t company's ' stake t k in i HumanSoft H S ft to 10 percent, the parties said in a joint statement.  The buyers were institutional investors including regional sovereign wealth funds and other funds. HumanSoft establishes and manages private universities and colleges in Kuwait and internationally. GBCM Morning Briefing 12
13. | Institutional Sales ‐ Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage ‐ Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research ‐ Kanaga Sundar, Sundar (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, Sridharan (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. report The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 4/13/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 13