GCC Daily Market Update - 28 March 2016

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 28 , 2016 MARKET COMMENTARY GLOBAL MARKETS Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,035.9 17,515.7 4,405.5 6,106.5 9,851.4 4,329.7 81,356.5 17,002.8 20,345.6 2,979.4 25,337.6 NA NA NA NA NA NA (1.9) 110.4 NA 18.5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 0.0 0.7 NA 0.6 NA 5.4 6.0 4.9 0.2 3.7 (0.5) 7.3 6.1 6.5 10.8 10.2 (0.4) 0.5 (4.1) (2.2) (8.3) (6.6) 13.4 (10.7) (7.2) (15.8) (3.0) 10,229.0 6,256.7 4,298.3 3,279.2 5,242.0 5,536.7 1,157.4 1,468.4 2,770.8 (56.5) (94.2) (33.7) (39.6) (26.4) 3.1 (1.5) 0.0 (0.1) (0.6) (1.5) (0.8) (1.2) (0.5) 0.1 (0.1) 0.0 0.0 3.4 2.7 (1.2) 1.2 0.7 2.6 (1.8) 3.7 5.1 (1.9) (9.5) (0.2) 4.1 (6.6) 2.4 (4.8) 1.5 (1.1) 40.4 39.5 1.8 1,221.6 222.5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 13.3 17.9 4.4 (1.0) 4.5 9.3 7.4 (23.5) 15.2 4.2 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Most markets remained closed on Friday for Good Friday holiday Global Most major global markets were closed on Friday on account of Good Friday. In Asia, Japan’s benchmark index advanced 0.7% amid low volumes as insurers and carmakers led gains while the yen weakened against the dollar for a sixth day. Major exporters benefitted from weaker yen, closing sharply higher. Shares of Toyota ended 2.8% higher, Nissan added 2.6%, while Honda was up by 2.8%. Gains were however, capped after data released showed no change in inflation. China’s benchmark added 0.6% as consumer-staples producers rallied on improving earnings prospects, while property developers halted a three-day slide. GCC Most of the Gulf markets ended in red on Sunday. Saudi Arabia’s index fell 1.5%, following an 8.2% plunge in Saudi Cement, after the stock went exdividend. Saudi Telecom sank 3.5% as telecommunications shares continued to slide, after a GCC official said on Thursday that the six-nation bloc would cut roaming charges for making and receiving calls and sending text messages by an average 40% from April 1. Dubai’s index retreated 1.2%. The index’s heavily traded stock, Dubai Parks & Resorts fell 5.1% after proposing to boost its capital by AED 1.68bn through a rights issue. Abu Dhabi's index fell 0.8% as telecommunications firm Etisalat, also hit by the cut in regional roaming charges, dropped 1.1%. Qatar QE index ended 0.6% lower, majorly due to increased net selling by domestic institutions and lower buying support from their foreign counterparts. Insurances stocks (-0.9%) were a major drag on the broad based index. Some shares however, bucked the trend. Mesaieed Petrochemical, the most heavily traded share, surged 9.5%, while Gulf Warehousing added a further 6%, continued to be buoyed by the increase in its foreign ownership limit last week. Al Khalij Commercial Bank rose 1.8% after the depository raised its foreign ownership ceiling to 49% on Sunday. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%) Value Traded (USD mn) Qatar All share 12.2 1.6 4.2 74.1 10,400 DSM 20 12.7 1.6 4.1 36.1 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.4 1.5 4.1 1,257.1 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.3 1.4 5.7 17.9 8,900 UAE (DFM) 11.5 1.2 3.8 61.4 8,400 30/Dec Kuwait (KSE) 15.1 1.0 4.8 35.6 Oman (MSM) 12.2 1.2 4.5 14.6 Bahrain (BAX) 8.9 0.6 5.6 0.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatari Investors Group QCFS MPHC Gulf Warehousing Co Al Ahli Bank Top Losers Mannai Corporation Zad Holding Co Islamic Holding Group Commercial Bank Qsc Qatar Islamic Bank Close Price 45.1 33.1 19.6 60.0 48.0 4.1 3.0 1.7 3.4 2.6 10.0 10.0 9.5 6.0 5.7 19.6 (2.8) 1.0 5.4 9.4 90.0 90.0 77.0 41.1 105.6 (2.8) (2.0) (1.5) (0.6) (1.4) (3.0) (2.2) (1.9) (1.3) (1.3) (5.6) 6.1 (2.2) (10.6) (1.0) Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 17.4 644.2 22.2 (25.8) 1.5 14.5 (23.9) 1,357.9 22.5 13.3 277.9 16.5 5.0 76.5 14.2 (13.0) (3.5) (21.0) (27.7) 6.1 0.5 0.1 303.2 87.1 9.1 7.7 10.4 59.4 10.8 12.9 Qatar DSM Index 10,900 10,229.0 25.0 0.0 13/Jan 27/Jan 10/Feb Index Volume (mn) 24/Feb 9/Mar 23/Mar Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,778.5 6,637.5 3,095.2 4,445.6 2,471.1 1,090.3 2,533.1 1D Change (%) (0.4) 0.2 0.4 (0.9) 0.0 (0.2) 0.2 Buy (%) 49.0 23.4 72.5 22.4 5.1 27.5 Sell (%) 44.3 29.2 73.5 22.0 4.4 26.5 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 28 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  The US Department of Commerce revealed that the US GDP rose by an annual rate of 1.4% in Q4-15, instead of the previously reported 1.0%, with strong consumer spending offsetting the drag from efforts by businesses to reduce an inventory overhang. (Source: RTT)  According to the US Department of Commerce, manufactured durable goods orders in US fell by 2.8% MoM in February-16 after surging up by a revised 4.2% MoM in January-16. (Source: RTT)  The European Central Bank said that the Euro-area economic recovery would continue at a moderate pace as global concerns such as the emerging market slowdown and a stronger euro weaken prospects for stronger expansion. (Source: RTT)  British retail sales volume dropped 0.4% MoM in February-16 thereby reversing 2.3% growth in January-16 as poor weather delayed clothing purchases. Likewise, sales excluding fuel grew at a slower pace of 4.1% MoM after rising 5.1% MoM in January-16.  According to a report, the Saudi Arabian Technical Consumer Goods (TCG) market recorded a double-digit decline of 10.5% in Q4-15, with a turnover of SAR 10.3bn, when compared to the same period in 2014. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  The Saudi government is in discussions for an international loan in its first significant foreign borrowing in more than a decade. Standards & Poor's estimates that the Kingdom will issue up to USD 31bn in debt in 2016, as it strives to manage the fiscal deficit caused by the fall in oil prices. (Source: Zawya)  A royal decree was issued in Saudi Arabia to grant tourism locations additional leasing terms of up to 25 years, and for projects whose volume of investment reaches over SAR 20mn, leasing terms may reach up to 50 years, maximum, in accordance with specific criteria. (Source: Zawya)  Oman's Public Authority for Civil Aviation (PACA) shall raise fees charged for air traffic through the Sultanate. The new aviation tariff is expected to increase PACA's revenues by more than 25%, improving the sector's contribution to the state budget. (Source: Zawya)  Oman’s trade balance registered a surplus of OMR 2.2bn at the end of 2015, despite a fall in exports by 34.7% YoY, primarily driven by decline in total value of oil & gas exports. Oil & gas exports declined 41.9% YoY while non-oil exports dropped 27.2% YoY at the end of 2015. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait said that it has signed a deal worth USD 150mn with Piraeus Bank, one of the largest private lenders in Greece, to acquire 98.5% of its Egyptian unit as a part of its regional expansion strategy. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: RTT)  French GDP rose 0.3% QoQ in Q4-15. On the expenditure side, gross fixed capital formation accelerated at a pace of 0.7% QoQ. For the full year GDP advanced 1.2%, corrected from the 1.1% rise initially estimated. (Source: RTT)  According to the National Bureau of Statistics, profits earned by Chinese industrial firms in January and February combined rose 4.8% from a year earlier, totaling CNY 780.7bn (USD 119.8bn) in the twomonth period. This is attributed to quicker product sales of industrial firms and a slower decline of industrial producer prices during the period. (Source: Reuters)  Shanghai unveiled a package of measures designed to stem a surge in property prices in the metropolis. Some of these measures include tightening approval criteria for non-resident homebuyers, raising down payment requirements for some second homes and ban unregulated lending. (Source: Bloomberg)  Japan's consumer prices were unchanged in February-16 from a year earlier as low energy costs and weak consumption put a lid on price growth. Excluding the effects of energy and fresh food prices, consumer inflation stood at 1.1% in February-16. (Source: Reuters)  Japan’s public pension funds boosted holdings of foreign assets to a record in the three months through December 2015, while reducing their investment in local sovereign debt to the least in more than a decade. The funds bought a net JPY 1.3tn (USD 11.5bn) of overseas securities, bringing their total to JPY 59.5tn, and also added to investments in domestic equities. (Source: Bloomberg) QATAR NEWS  According to Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics, Qatar’s foreign merchandise trade surplus stood at QAR 7.4bn in February 2016, up 3.0% from January 2016. However, the surplus declined 53.5% compared to February 2015 due to decline in total exports. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar is ranked second globally in the World Safety Index 2015 released by GoldenVisa.ch, Switzerland. The country was rated at the top in three different categories namely; global terrorism, unemployment rate, and disaster risk. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar achieved a major breakthrough when nine of its highest quality projects were named national winners at the MEED Quality Awards for Projects. (Source: The Peninsula)  Prime Minister and Interior Minister H E Sheikh Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Al Thani laid the foundation stone for the QAR 11bn Umm Al Haul Power Plant of Qatar Electricity and Water Company (QEWC), which will give a major boost to water and electricity production. GCC NEWS (Source: Zawya)  According to GCC Statistical Centre report, GCC inflation rose 1.5% in 2015 compared to 2014. The index represents the GCC region and excludes the group of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels from the national indices of the GCC countries. (Source: Saudi Gazette)  Qatar National Cement Company decided to shut down cement plant No (1) as of 1 June, 2016. The plant's current production capacity reached 200,000 tons of clinker and about 140,000 tons cement per year. (Source: 4 Traders)  Abu Dhabi International airport reported an 8.7% YoY increase in passenger traffic for February-16. Aircraft movements in February-16 reached 13,307 up by 3.5% from 12,852 movements recorded in February-15. (Source: Arabian Business)  Al-Jazeera, the Qatar-based broadcaster, slashes about 500 jobs worldwide, mainly in Qatar HQ, as part of a workforce optimization initiative tied to an evolving media landscape. (Source: China Post)   Dubai Electricity & Water Authority plans to build 64 substations over the next three years for a total cost of USD 1.8bn (AED 6.7bn) in cooperation with various developers in the Emirate. (Source: Arabian Qatar Solar Technologies signed a MoU with Turkish state energy company Elektrik Üretim Anonim Şirketi in order to explore areas of mutual interest that would further develop Turkey's solar industry. Business)  Dubai Silicon Oasis Authority, a premier innovation hub for high-tech industries in the Middle East region, has attracted investments worth AED 3.6bn (USD 979mn) in 2015 for the development of its integrated free zone technology park. (Source: Trade Arabia) (Source: Zawya)  Qatar Stock Exchange announced trading suspension on Al Meera Consumer Goods Company shares on Monday, March 28, 2016 due to its AGM being held on that day. (Source: Qatar Stock Exchange) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 28 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1197 USD/QAR 3.6411 113.0800 EUR/QAR 4.0769 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4162 JPY/QAR 0.0322 USD/CHF 0.9776 GBP/QAR 5.1565 USD/CAD 1.3270 CHF/QAR 3.7245 AUD/USD 0.7507 CAD/QAR 2.7439 NZD/USD 0.6686 AUD/QAR 2.7334 USD/INR 66.1362 INR/QAR 0.0551 USD/TRY 2.8758 TRY/QAR 1.2661 USD/ZAR 15.4551 ZAR/QAR 0.2356 USD/BRL 3.6786 BRL/QAR 0.9898 FX Commentary Most of the markets were closed on Friday for Good Friday holiday. The US dollar recorded a modest gain on Thursday, its fifth consecutive day of gains, though weak US economic data pulled it down a bit in late trading. The hawkish comments by the US Fed officials bolstered the USD last week. The USD turned flat in the afternoon trade after data showed a fall in US durable goods orders coupled with a slight increase in the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits. The USD rose about 0.4% against the JPY, posting its largest one-day percentage gain in about two weeks. The EUR too weakened against the USD and was trading about 0.1% towards the end. However, the GBP ended its losing spree against the USD, first time in the week, as it benefitted from better than expected UK retail sales numbers. The dollar index was last trading at 96.133. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 0.37 0.39 0.44 0.63 1.23 (0.39) (0.35) (0.33) (0.24) (0.01) QAIBOR 1.10 1.21 1.32 1.46 1.80 SAIBOR NA NA 1.56 1.80 2.00 1.07% EIBOR 0.35 0.46 0.68 1.02 1.58 0.75% 1.32% BMIBOR 0.43 0.63 0.93 1.33 1.73 2 Yrs 5 Yrs KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.25% 5.0% 2.15% 0.0% Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% 1.0% 1.83% 1.58% 2.0% 2.38% 2.19% 0.99% 0.83% 2.05% 1.77% 1.55% 1.35% 2 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs 1.62% 1.89% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 2.66% Qatar Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change 20.7 3.7 Turkey 272.5 (26.6) UK 40.3 25.6 Brazil 400.6 (99.4) Germany 19.6 6.1 Egypt 499.7 158.2 France 34.1 1.5 Abu Dhabi 95.1 18.5 129.9 6.8 Bahrain 386.0 77.5 Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 2.59% US Italy 0.0% 2.59% 1,147.6 (66.2) Dubai 218.0 15.5 Russia 304.0 (69.1) Qatar 95.1 18.3 Japan 47.0 5.5 157.6 29.0 Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 15:30 US Personal Income Feb 0.10% 0.50% 15:30 US Personal Spending Feb 0.10% 0.50% 17:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM Feb 1.10% (2.50%) 2:30 Japan Jobless Rate Feb 3.20% 3.20% 2:30 Japan Job-To-Applicant Ratio Feb 1.29 1.28 2:50 Japan Retail Trade YoY Feb 1.60% (0.20%) QoQ (%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) Kuwait Reinsurance Co Ksc 9.28 15.45 (3.84) 1.35 (504.11) 115.13 Real Estate Trade Centers Co 0.14 (7,121.82) NM 0.11 (45.43) (489.72) Al Sharqiya Invest Holding (0.21) 321.20 (395.27) (0.44) 58.69 197.24 Kuwait Financial Centre Sak 1.97 (165.11) (239.01) 0.49 (121.32) (136.23) Kuwait Foundry Co Sak 0.55 (9.56) 16.38 (0.64) (508.68) (73.34) Abu Dhabi National Insurance 330.65 (16.22) (19.44) (3.41) (99.09) (89.47) National Industries Co Ksc 12.86 (0.67) 15.74 0.88 (38.10) (54.39) National Investments Co (6.47) (431.01) 453.29 (8.12) (598.53) 545.15 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 28 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.2 7.2 0.0 8.1 1.4 5.9 4.9 3.0 4.0 5.6 2.1 5.0 3.6 4.4 4.2 5.0 4.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 7.5 5.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.6 0.0 2.8 4.6 5.4 3.9 3.8 3.1 7.9 4.2 4.0 3.8 5.3 2.7 2.8 5.6 3.0 6.3 2.8 0.0 7.7 3.9 3.5 1.7 3.0 2.2 5.3 5.4 5.0 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.9 0.8 2.0 1.0 7.2 1.0 2.2 0.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.1 1.7 2.9 3.1 1.4 2.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.9 3.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.3 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.6 3.0 2.1 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.9 2.9 0.7 3.1 1.7 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 2.0 1.4 2.4 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 13.4 9.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.0 72.8 9.8 12.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 12.9 13.8 10.4 20.6 11.0 17.6 26.5 13.2 11.4 N/A (‫)غ‬ 13.4 13.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.4 13.5 8.4 14.7 8.0 20.7 14.6 20.2 10.6 11.0 14.3 15.7 8.5 16.2 4.7 13.0 10.8 4.5 28.5 13.8 10.0 12.6 13.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.6 17.9 13.2 9.7 11.9 12.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 4.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.3 1.1 1.7 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.3 5.2 13.4 0.6 6.2 6.4 8.1 2.3 13.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.0 3.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 5.9 1.0 4.3 7.4 11.7 0.9 13.6 2.0 3.6 7.8 3.2 1.7 2.2 5.1 10.6 5.5 5.8 7.9 0.6 1.0 2.0 1.6 6.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.2 1.8 9.6 3.1 3.5 BV/Share (QR) 23.8 53.0 9.3 35.8 10.9 16.6 16.1 21.0 56.8 36.5 72.8 10.5 40.6 38.9 69.3 21.7 76.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.7 14.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 38.0 11.8 21.1 55.6 52.8 11.3 66.8 19.5 31.3 47.9 24.7 22.3 21.5 28.6 71.9 22.6 37.0 45.2 11.3 12.5 30.8 17.1 67.8 6.1 23.1 24.1 14.8 119.4 31.9 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 45.4 41.6 18.7 37.0 78.5 17.0 35.7 16.7 107.0 71.6 139.0 12.0 113.0 215.0 30.1 157.0 13.1 13.3 53.5 92.0 12.9 36.1 107.9 92.8 17.9 199.0 41.0 37.8 85.9 26.7 18.8 83.0 49.5 70.9 35.0 17.8 14.2 19.4 86.9 12.3 56.6 23.2 93.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material s or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4