GCC Daily Market Update - 29 Mar 2016

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 29 , 2016 MARKET COMMENTARY GLOBAL MARKETS Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,037.1 17,535.4 4,398.1 6,106.5 9,851.4 4,329.7 81,344.6 17,134.4 20,345.6 2,957.8 24,966.4 1.1 19.7 (7.5) NA NA NA (11.9) 131.6 NA (21.6) (371.2) 0.1 0.1 (0.2) NA NA NA (0.0) 0.8 NA (0.7) (1.5) 5.4 6.2 4.7 0.2 3.7 (0.5) 7.3 6.9 6.5 10.0 8.5 (0.3) 0.6 (4.2) (2.2) (8.3) (6.6) 13.4 (10.0) (7.2) (16.4) (4.4) 10,145.4 6,268.7 4,281.5 3,266.3 5,252.3 5,546.2 1,152.7 1,450.2 2,773.4 (83.6) 12.0 (16.7) (12.9) 10.2 9.5 (4.7) (18.2) 2.6 (0.8) 0.2 (0.4) (0.4) 0.2 0.2 (0.4) (1.2) 0.1 2.6 2.9 (1.6) 0.8 0.9 2.8 (2.2) 2.4 5.2 (2.7) (9.3) (0.6) 3.7 (6.5) 2.6 (5.2) 0.2 (1.1) 40.3 39.4 1.8 1,220.1 224.2 (0.2) (0.1) 0.0 (1.5) 1.7 (0.4) (0.2) 2.3 (0.1) 0.8 11.2 16.0 8.2 (1.2) 5.3 7.3 5.7 (20.8) 15.1 5.0 Source: Bloomberg Global Global markets ended on a mixed note. Most Asian markets fell after an upward revision in US GDP data on Friday stoked expectations of US rate increases. Japan’s benchmark however bucked the trend ending 0.8% higher, supported by a weaker yen. European markets were closed for the Easter Monday holiday. In US, major indices ended marginally higher after the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation barometer, rose just 1% in the past 12 months ended in February, down from 1.2% in the prior month, thereby reducing concerns about potential interest rate hikes. Energy shares however capped gains following a dip in oil prices. S&P 500 ended 0.1% higher, on the back of Consumer Discretionary sector, which got a boost from merger activity in lodging stocks. GCC GCC markets ended on a mixed note on Monday. Saudi Arabia’s index edged up 0.2%, mainly supported by Petrochemical stocks. SABIC gained 1.0%. Saudi Research and Marketing rose 6.1% after it said it expected to book a capital gain of GBP 28.85mn in the first quarter from the sale of a British real estate asset. Dubai’s index closed 0.4% lower. Arabtec added 1.3% after it scheduled a board meeting on Wednesday to discuss its business. Abu Dhabi benchmark dropped 0.4% as telecom firm Etisalat dropped 0.6%. Qatar QE index edged down 0.8% on Monday, as local retail investors and Gulf individual investors were bearish on the market. Insurance (-1.3%) and Real Estate (-1.2%) stocks witnessed maximum selling pressure. Ooredoo, which had been suspended for its annual general meeting as the overall market slid on Sunday, dropped 2.2%. Major volumes were witnessed in Qatar Insurance, Ezdan, Mazaya Qatar, Milaha, Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding, Ooredoo and Vodafone Qatar. Out of the 43 companies listed, 42 exchanged hands, of which 16 advanced, 23 declined and 3 stayed unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%) Value Traded (USD mn) Qatar All share 12.2 1.5 4.1 101.2 10,400 DSM 20 12.6 1.6 4.1 50.1 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.4 1.5 4.1 1,389.7 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.3 1.4 5.8 61.4 8,900 UAE (DFM) 11.4 1.2 3.8 82.0 Kuwait (KSE) 15.1 1.0 4.8 69.1 8,400 31/Dec Oman (MSM) 12.4 1.2 4.5 12.7 Bahrain (BAX) 8.8 0.6 4.7 0.4 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatari Investors Group QGRI Islamic Holding Group Qatar National Cement Mannai Corporation Top Losers QCFS Qatar Insurance Co Qatar Navigation Ooredoo Qsc Qatar Islamic Bank Close Price 49.6 51.9 80.5 88.0 92.0 4.5 2.5 3.5 2.0 2.0 10.0 5.0 4.5 2.3 2.2 31.6 11.7 2.3 (5.1) (3.5) 30.2 0.2 (18.1) (19.3) (11.9) 925.2 24.4 0.9 4.9 414.6 62.1 13.2 11.3 0.05 7.9 31.1 79.5 90.2 85.0 103.6 (2.0) (2.5) (2.8) (1.9) (2.0) (6.1) (3.0) (3.0) (2.2) (1.9) (8.7) 14.3 (5.1) 13.3 (2.9) (30.3) 19.4 (8.4) (17.5) 5.6 0.7 36.1 19.2 188.2 16.7 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 13.6 16.5 9.4 12.9 12.7 Qatar DSM Index 10,900 10,145.4 25.0 0.0 14/Jan 28/Jan 11/Feb Index Volume (mn) 25/Feb 10/Mar 24/Mar Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,764.0 6,601.9 3,123.8 4,387.7 2,441.3 1,100.1 2,517.8 1D Change (%) (0.5) (0.5) 0.9 (1.3) (1.2) 0.9 (0.6) Buy (%) 45.0 27.9 72.9 17.0 10.1 27.1 Sell (%) 49.1 27.0 76.1 15.7 8.2 23.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 29 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS     Personal income in the US rose 0.2% MoM in February-16, while personal spending inched up by 0.1% MoM. With income rising slightly faster than spending, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income inched up to 5.4% in February-16 from 5.3% a month ago. (Source: RTT) The US pending home sales index climbed 3.5% to 109.1 in February16 from a downwardly revised 105.4 in January-16, beating economists’ expectations of an increase by about 1.5%, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors. The index was up 0.7% YoY, increasing for the eighteenth consecutive month on YoY basis. (Source: RTT) Natural gas overtook coal as the top fuel for US power generators for the first time over the 12 months ended in January-16, according to IEA. EIA said gas produced a record high 1.343 billion megawatt hours during the 12 months through January-16 as compared to 1.337 billion MWh for coal. (Source: Reuters) The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 3.3% in February-16 which was higher than the forecasted 3.2%, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said. The job-toapplicant ratio was 1.28 which remains unchanged from the previous month and the participation rate was 59.3%. (Source: RTT)  The average household spending in Japan advanced 1.2% YoY in February-16 to stand at JPY 269,774, whereas the average monthly income per household stood at JPY 478,624, down 2.4% YoY, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said. (Source: RTT)  Retail sales in Japan increased 0.5% YoY in February-16, well below expectations for an increase of 1.6% YoY, following the 0.2% YoY decline in January-16, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said. The retail sales slid a seasonally adjusted 2.3% MoM missing forecasts for a fall of 0.9% MoM. (Source: RTT)  China’s industrial profits in January-16 and February-16 combined rose 4.8% YoY, totaling CNY 780.7bn in the two-month period, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. China’s real estate investment rose 3% YoY in the same period, as compared to an increase of 1% YoY in the full year of 2015. (Source: The Guardian)  The Saudi-Turkmenistan Joint Commission for Trade and Economic Cooperation discussed measures to promote closer contacts and further expand bilateral trade and investment at its meeting. Energy, Oil, Transportation and Communications were major segments discussed. (Source: Arab News)  Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Housing inked a USD 20bn deal with a Korea-led consortium, which also includes Korea’s Daewoo Engineering & Construction and Saudi construction firm SAPAC to build 100,000 homes in Saudi Arabia. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi International Petrochemical Co (Sipchem) said that its board had approved issuance of sharia-compliant bonds. The firm appointed Riyad Capital and NCB Capital as lead managers for the issue. (Source: Trade Arabia)  The New India Assurance Company Limited, Bahrain reported a profit of USD 3.22mn for 2015 compared with USD 2.5mn the previous year. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bahrain Islamic Bank (BisB) shareholders have approved the distribution of 4 bonus shares against existing 100 shares. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Kuwait Finance House (KFH) has received an offer from investors to buy its stake in affiliate Aref Investment Group (held 53% by KFH). KFH, however did not declare detail and said that no decision has yet been taken. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwait's Agility reported a 5% YoY rise in Q4-15 net profit to KWD 14.3mn. Agility said its board has proposed a cash dividend of KWD 0.030 a share for 2015. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  Tribune)  Communications Regulatory Authority has coordinated with both its Service Providers (Ooredoo and Vodafone) to implement the first phase of the new regulation on reduced roaming charges within the GCC for the benefit of telecom consumers in Qatar and the rest of GCC member states. (Source: QNA)  Ooredoo plans to launch the first stage of its 5G network by 2018 and make it commercially available by 2020, according to the CEO of the company. He further added that once the network is rolled out the internet speed will jump to between 1GB and 10GB per second. GCC NEWS  Petrol prices in the UAE will rise by more than 10% in April-16, according to an announcement by the Ministry of Energy. Diesel will also increase by 11.4%. The rise tracks the increase in the price of Brent crude in the past month. (Source: Arabian Business)  The Dubai Commodities Clearing Corporation (DCCC), said that clearing members will now be able to deposit cash collateral to the corporation in the form of EUR, GBP and JPY in addition to AED and USD. The facility will allow clearing members to utilize these currencies against their Margin commitments, without actually converting those to USD. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Banks in the UAE will suspend legal action against SME’s struggling to repay debt for up to three months to prevent a surge in defaults. The initiative has the backing of the central bank, as well as the unanimous agreement of banks. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Etisalat group appointed Engineer Saleh Adbullah al-Abdooli as CEO, amidst restructuring process. Abdooli replaces Hatem Dowidar, who was appointed interim CEO earlier this month. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai Investments has acquired 20% additional stake in Properties Investments (A JV between Dubai Investments and Union Properties) for AED 98mn. The company now holds a total stake of 70% in the JV. Vice-Chairman of Qatar Chamber said that Qatar meets up to 50% of energy needs of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and indicated further rise due to growing demand in these nations. Singapore’s ambassador to Qatar added that the trade volume between Qatar and ASEAN stood at USD 16bn in 2014.(Source: Qatar (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  Ooredoo announced that its subsidiary Wi-tribe limited concluded the sale of Wi-tribe Pakistan to HB Offshore Investment Ltd. for a cash amount of approximately QAR 32.7mn. (Source: QE)  Qatar First Bank is expecting regulatory approval for the listing of its shares on Qatar Exchange (QE) towards the end of next month, as stated by the Bank Chairman. (Source: Peninsula Qatar)  Qatar Solar Technologies (QSTec) and Turkish state energy company Elektrik Uretim Anonim Sirketi have partnered to explore areas of mutual interest to develop Turkey’s solar sector. QSTec has also signed MoUs with Turkish industrial groups Bendis Enerji and Fernas Group to co-operate in solar energy industry investments. (Source: Gulf Base)  Al Rayan Bank PLC appointed Ahmed Rawaf as as Head of Premier/Private Banking. He joins from Credit Suisse where he specialized in private banking and wealth management. (Source: Peninsula Qatar) (Source: Trade Arabia) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 29 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1226 USD/QAR 3.6412 113.4500 EUR/QAR 4.0876 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4284 JPY/QAR 0.0321 USD/CHF 0.9738 GBP/QAR 5.2011 USD/CAD 1.3187 CHF/QAR 3.7392 AUD/USD 0.7545 CAD/QAR 2.7612 NZD/USD 0.6723 AUD/QAR 2.7473 USD/INR 66.0700 INR/QAR 0.0551 USD/TRY 2.8687 TRY/QAR 1.2693 USD/ZAR 15.4757 ZAR/QAR 0.2353 USD/BRL 3.6273 BRL/QAR 1.0038 FX Commentary The USD edged down against a basket of major currencies yesterday after data showed pull back in US inflation and a downward revision to consumer spending, dashing the expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate increases at a fast pace. The data suggested a moderation in US inflation last month, with a price index for consumer spending dropping 0.1%in February-16. The EUR strengthened against the USD and touched its peak since March 23. The greenback was also down about 0.39% against the CHF. The CAD edged up against its US counterpart, weighed by the economic data. CAD also got a boost as the country’s finance minister expressed optimism that deficit spending will spur domestic economic growth. However, the USD strengthened against the JPY (~+0.27%). The dollar index was trading about 0.18% lower towards the end. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 0.37 0.39 0.44 0.63 1.23 (0.39) (0.35) (0.33) (0.24) (0.01) QAIBOR 1.12 1.21 1.31 1.44 1.78 SAIBOR NA NA 1.56 1.80 2.00 EIBOR 0.35 0.43 0.68 1.03 1.58 BMIBOR 0.43 0.63 0.93 1.33 1.73 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.25% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% 2.15% 1.30% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 1.81% 1.56% 2.0% 2.20% 0.97% 1.0% 0.82% 2.39% 1.77% 1.54% 1.34% 2 Yrs 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Qatar 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS 30 Yrs Spread 6M Change 20.7 2.8 Turkey 270.5 (56.5) UK 40.6 24.5 Brazil 386.6 (132.4) Germany 19.9 5.7 Egypt 499.1 139.1 France 34.0 1.6 Abu Dhabi 95.0 14.4 123.7 0.0 Bahrain 370.0 42.4 Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 1.87% US Italy 0.0% 1.60% 2.65% 0.75% Source: Bloomberg 2.04% 2.59% 1.12% Source: Bloomberg 3.0% 2.59% 1,148.0 (95.4) Dubai 214.2 (0.3) Russia 300.3 (83.5) Qatar 95.0 15.4 Japan 45.8 0.1 158.2 22.5 Saudi Arabia Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey 8:00 Japan Small Business Confidence Mar 49 Prior 47.9 11:00 EC M3 Money Supply YoY Feb 5.00% 5.00% 11:00 Italy Consumer Confidence Index Mar 114 114.5 11:00 Italy Business Confidence Mar 102.4 102 11:00 Italy Economic Sentiment Mar -- 103.1 15:30 Canada Industrial Product Price MoM Feb (0.20%) 0.50% 15:30 Canada Raw Materials Price Index MoM Feb (0.90%) (0.40%) 16:00 US S&P/CaseShiller 20-City Index NSA Jan 182.74 182.75 16:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 YOY NSA Jan 5.75% 5.74% 17:00 US Consumer Confidence Index Mar 94 92.2 2:50 Japan Industrial Production MoM Feb P (5.90%) 3.70% 2:50 Japan Industrial Production YoY Feb P (1.70%) (3.80%) 7:00 Japan Vehicle Production YoY Feb -- (5.80%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Al Tamdeen Investment Co Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 1.92 242.05 (1,662.14) 0.92 83.43 412.56 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE March 29 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 7.3 0.0 8.1 1.4 5.8 4.9 2.9 4.0 5.6 2.1 5.0 3.6 4.4 4.2 4.5 4.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 7.5 5.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.6 0.0 2.8 4.7 5.6 3.6 3.8 2.8 7.9 4.2 4.0 3.8 5.3 2.8 2.8 5.7 3.0 6.3 2.8 0.0 7.8 3.9 3.5 1.7 3.0 2.0 5.4 5.4 5.0 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 2.0 0.8 2.1 1.0 7.0 1.0 2.2 0.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.2 1.7 2.9 3.1 1.5 2.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 0.9 3.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.3 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 3.0 2.3 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.9 2.9 0.7 3.1 1.7 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.6 1.2 1.3 2.0 1.4 2.5 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 14.1 9.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.0 71.4 10.0 12.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 12.8 13.8 10.3 20.8 11.0 17.6 26.6 14.5 11.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 13.4 13.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.4 13.4 8.4 14.5 7.7 22.7 14.5 22.3 10.6 11.0 14.4 15.5 8.6 16.0 4.7 12.9 10.7 4.5 28.5 14.1 9.9 12.6 13.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.6 19.0 13.1 9.7 11.9 12.6 EPS (QR) 3.4 4.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.3 1.1 1.7 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.3 5.2 13.4 0.6 6.2 6.4 8.1 2.3 13.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.0 3.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 5.9 1.0 4.3 7.4 11.7 0.9 13.6 2.0 3.6 7.8 3.2 1.7 2.2 5.1 10.6 5.5 5.8 7.9 0.6 1.0 2.0 1.6 6.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.2 1.8 9.6 3.1 3.5 BV/Share (QR) 23.8 53.0 9.3 35.8 10.9 16.6 16.1 21.0 56.8 36.5 72.8 10.5 40.6 38.9 69.3 21.7 76.0 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.7 14.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 38.0 11.8 21.1 55.6 52.8 11.3 66.8 19.5 31.3 47.9 24.7 22.3 21.5 28.6 71.9 22.6 37.0 45.2 11.3 12.5 30.8 17.1 67.8 6.1 23.1 24.1 14.8 119.4 31.9 27.6 Stock Price (QR) 48.0 41.1 19.6 37.0 77.0 17.3 35.7 17.0 105.6 71.5 138.5 12.1 113.0 215.7 33.1 157.6 13.0 13.3 53.5 90.0 12.7 36.1 106.5 90.0 19.6 197.1 45.1 37.8 86.0 26.4 19.0 82.0 49.5 70.5 35.1 17.8 14.5 19.3 86.9 12.2 60.0 22.9 93.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the inf ormation provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4