GCC Daily Market Report - 20 Oct

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 20 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,144.3 18,202.6 4,836.6 7,021.9 10,645.7 4,520.3 79,209.9 16,998.9 23,305.0 3,084.7 27,984.4 4.7 40.7 (3.1) 21.9 14.1 11.4 869.5 35.3 (89.4) 0.8 (66.5) 0.2 0.2 (0.1) 0.3 0.1 0.3 1.1 0.2 (0.4) 0.0 (0.2) (1.1) (0.6) (0.8) 1.8 1.3 1.6 3.6 3.3 0.0 2.7 0.4 4.9 4.5 5.3 12.5 (0.9) (2.5) 10.4 (10.7) 6.3 (12.8) 7.1 10,452.1 5,522.6 4,309.0 3,319.5 5,315.2 5,592.9 1,144.5 1,482.6 2,932.2 (32.0) 61.6 39.7 1.5 31.6 9.3 7.5 8.4 6.0 (0.3) 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 (1.8) (3.7) (4.5) (1.5) (2.3) (0.5) (2.6) (1.6) 0.2 (20.1) 0.0 5.3 (5.3) 3.5 (5.9) 2.9 4.7 52.7 51.6 3.2 1,267.9 210.4 1.0 1.3 (0.1) 7.1 (0.2) 1.9 2.6 (2.9) 0.6 (0.1) 7.1 6.5 9.4 (3.5) (4.7) 41.0 38.7 36.0 19.6 (1.3) Global Global Markets ended on a mixed note on Wednesday. S&P 500 edged up 0.2% as Energy stocks gained 1.4% on the back of rise in oil prices. Financial stocks further supported the broader index after higher the expected results from Morgan Stanley added to the optimism in Financial stocks. European stocks closed higher following a rally in Energy stocks after the Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister said at a London conference that many countries outside the OPEC are willing to join an output deal to help stabilize the oil market. In Asia, China’s benchmark closed marginally in green after the nation’s economy expanded 6.7% in the third quarter from a year earlier, in line with market expectations. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.2% taking cues from a bounce in Wall Street shares. GCC Most Gulf markets rose on Wednesday. Saudi Arabia’s index rose 1.1% lifted by gains in index heavyweight Saudi basic Industries, as the Gulf's largest petrochemical producer, climbed 1.8% after reporting a better than expected results. Shares of Middle East Healthcare edged up after reporting a 1.2% rise in its net profit. Dubai’s benchmark added 0.1% as DXB Entertainments climbed 3.3% ahead of opening its theme parks at the end of this month. Abu Dhabi's index rose 0.9% lifted by gains in blue chip stocks with First Gulf Bank adding 1.8%. Qatar QE index closed 0.3% on Wednesday, underperforming its gulf peers with Commercial Bank of Qatar and Qatar Islamic Insurance falling more than 3% after posting weak 3Q-16 results. Profit booking also weighed on its index, with strong selling pressure witnessed in consumer goods, insurance and industrials counter. Losses were limited as foreign institutions turned strong buyers in the bourse, following gains in oil prices. Out of 44 companies listed, 40 exchanged hands, of which 25 declined, 11 advanced and 4 remain unchanged. Source: Bloomberg QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 14.0 1.6 3.9 53.9 DSM 20 14.8 1.6 3.9 36.0 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 13.4 1.3 4.3 658.8 UAE (ADX) 11.5 1.4 5.7 32.4 UAE (DFM) 11.9 1.2 4.1 65.5 Kuwait (KSE) 18.4 1.0 4.5 34.1 Oman (MSM) 10.7 1.1 5.1 5.4 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.5 0.4 4.9 1.0 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Gulf Warehousing Co Dlala Holding Qatar Islamic Bank Qatar Gas Transport Gulf Intl Services Top Losers Commercial Bank Qsc Qatar Islamic Insurance Medicare Group Islamic Holding Group Mannai Corporation Close Price 57.7 23.0 105.6 23.7 35.0 0.7 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 1.4 24.1 (1.0) 1.6 (32.1) (9.0) 8.0 (11.2) (2.6) (49.2) 326.5 NA 284.5 NA 87.2 12.0 36.8 13.6 39.2 18.3 37.5 51.5 79.8 58.5 77.9 (1.9) (1.9) (2.4) (1.6) (2.1) (4.8) (3.6) (2.9) (2.7) (2.6) (18.3) (28.5) (33.1) (25.7) (18.3) (32.2) (29.9) (51.8) (32.7) (21.4) 515.2 0.2 127.3 372.5 5.7 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 35.6 12.7 25.8 208.9 7.5 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 24/Jul 30.0 20.0 10,452.1 10.0 0.0 7/Aug 21/Aug 4/Sep Index Volume (mn) 18/Sep 2/Oct 16/Oct Index Value Closing Level 2,902.0 6,077.9 3,170.1 4,495.3 2,423.0 1,207.1 2,496.1 1D Change (%) (0.2) (1.5) (0.6) (0.7) (0.2) 0.1 0.1 Buy (%) 31.1 16.2 47.3 7.8 44.9 52.7 Sell (%) 33.0 35.1 68.1 8.9 22.9 31.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 20 , 2016 prices and falling sales volumes weighed on the petrochemicals major’s bottom line. (Source: The National) GLOBAL NEWS  Federal Reserve policymaker, William Dudley said that the Fed will likely raise interest rates by 25 bps in Decmber-16, if the US economy stays on its current trajectory. (Source: Reuters)  Fed’s Beige book report showed that the US economy exhibited some signs of rising wage pressures in September-16 and early October-16 but overall compensation growth remained modest, thus clouding the bank’s outlook as it decide on interest rate hike by year end. (Source:  Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC) has combined its chemicals and polymers businesses and will spin off its steel unit as part of its restructuring efforts to counter the depressed oil market and weak product prices. (Source: Zawya)  A senior IMF official said that the pace of Saudi Arabia's austerity drive is broadly appropriate and there is no room for Riyadh to ease up on the spending cuts that have slowed economic growth sharply. (Source: Reuters)  US housing starts fell 9.0% YoY to 1.0 mn units in September-16, mainly due to large decline in multifamily housing. However, singlefamily starts, which account for the largest share of the residential housing market rose 8.1% YoY to a rate of 783,000 units for the period. (Source:WSJ)    UK unemployment rate were held at 11-year low of 4.9% in the three months ending August-16, as number of people in work rose by 106,000 between June-16 and August-16, down from gains of more than 170,000 in each of three previous readings. The data signals that Britain's labour market has largely weathered the initial shock of the referendum decision to leave the EU. (Source: Reuters) Arabian Business)  Oman’s central bank plans to float OMR 150mn worth of government development bonds towards the end of the year for raising funds to repay a maturing bond issue, executive president of the Central Bank of Oman said. (Source: Times of Oman)  Bahrain’s government is no longer obliged to cut public spending as international oil prices have started to stabilise, said committee chairman for financial and economic affairs ahead of the national budget meeting. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  Banks in Qatar are better placed than GCC peers to cope with an eventual deterioration in asset quality brought about by a prolonged period of weak oil prices, Fitch Ratings said. (Source: The Peninsula) Bloomberg)  The Central Bank of Brazil has cut interest rates by 25 bps to 14% for the first time in four years to launch an easing cycle aimed at pulling economy out of its worst recession in over a century. (Source: Reuters) Qatar is considering investing in the USD 100bn global technology fund formed by SoftBank Group Corp. and Saudi Arabia, according to people familiar with the matter. (Source: Bloomberg)  Qatar’s real estate market witnessed a total 235 transactions during the second week of Oct-16 compared to 100 deals in the previous week, according to Ezdan weekly report. Total value of the transactions during the second week of October was QAR 618.7mn compared QAR 746.7mn a week ago. (Source: The Peninsula)  The London-listed Qatar Investment Fund, which invests largely in Qatari-listed stocks, said that the directors have resolved to put forward the proposal to implement the tender offer in Q4-16 to purchase up to 12% of the company’s issued share capital. (Source: The China’s crude output dropped 9.8% YoY to 16.0mn barrels a day in September-16 reflecting spending cuts at oil fields and the closure of old wells. The output for 9M-16 fell 6.1% YoY for the period. (Source: GCC NEWS  Economic activity in the GCC region is projected to slow this year despite continued expansion in hydrocarbon output, according to the IMF regional report. The report further said that the hydrocarbon budget revenues are projected to be lower by USD 400bn in 2016 compared to 2014, however, non-oil growth could marginally increase next year. (Source: Trade Arabia) Peninsula)  The overall growth in the UAE would fall to 2.3% in 2016, down from 4% last year, as the effect of lower oil prices impacts the wider economy, according to an IMF official. The official however said that the IMF welcomed UAE’s imminent plans to ratify a bankruptcy law as a measure to boost non-oil economic growth. (Source: The National)   Moody's Investors Service's maintained ‘stable’ outlook for the UAE banking system, reflecting the rating agency's view that resilient capital and liquidity buffers will help to protect banks' credit profiles despite the continued economic slowdown. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Dubai’s real estate developer Nakheel reported 8.3% YoY increase in net profit to AED 3.91bn for 9M-16 due to robust growth in its development, retail, leasing and leisure businesses. On quarterly basis, net profit rose 22% to AED 955mn in Q3-16 from AED 781mn in Q315. (Source: Khaleej Times)  DP World has signed a memorandum of understanding with the government of Ukraine to develop ports and logistics capabilities in the country. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in August fell to 7.31mn barrels per day from 7.62mn bpd in July. (Source: Arab News)  Saudi Arabia could issue the biggest bond deal in emerging markets history with a total deal size of up to USD 17.5bn with its triple-tranche transaction which has already attracted about USD 67bn in orders, according to one investor familiar with the deal. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Basic Industries Corp (SABIC) reported net profit of SAR 5.2bn in Q3-16 as against SAR 5.6bn in Q3-15, a 6.8% YoY decline as low oil Nakilat Shipping Qatar Limited (NSQL), a wholly owned subsidiary of Nakilat, signed an agreement with Shell International Trading and Shipping Company Limited to begin the planned phased transition of the management of Nakilat’s LNG fleet from Shell to NSQL. (Source: The Peninsula) Qatargas signed a new five-year LNG Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with Petronas LNG UK Limited (PLUK). Under the terms of the new SPA, Qatargas will deliver LNG to PLUK until 31st Dec-23, which is an extension of its current contract due to expire on 31st Dec-18. (Source: The Peninsula)  Doha Bank reported a net profit of QAR 1,019mn in 9M-16 supported by sustained growth in core earnings. Total assets increased by 2.6% YoY to QAR 84.5bn at the end of Q3-16 from QAR 82.3bn at the end of Q3-15. (Source: QSE)  Qatar Navigation (Milaha) reported net profit of QAR 759mn for 9M16, compared to QAR 959mn during 9M-15, with decline led by Maritime & Logistics’ segment, which fell by 13% YoY. (Source: The Peninsula)  Al Khaliji bank reported net profit of QAR 425mn for 9M-16 which was down 9% YoY due to conservative approach in provisions, said its chief executive. Total assets grew 6% YoY to QAR 58.5bn with loans and advances expanding 15% YoY to QAR 36.3bn during 9M-16. (Source: Gulf Times)  Doha’s Hamad International Airport was adjudged the third best international airport in the world by Condé Nast Traveller following the results of its 29th annual Readers’ Choice Awards. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 20 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1004 USD/QAR 3.6414 103.4400 EUR/QAR 4.0070 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2315 JPY/QAR 0.0352 USD/CHF 0.9890 GBP/QAR 4.4844 USD/CAD 1.3114 CHF/QAR 3.6819 AUD/USD 0.7722 CAD/QAR 2.7767 NZD/USD 0.7232 AUD/QAR 2.8119 USD/INR 66.1775 INR/QAR 0.0550 USD/TRY 3.0615 TRY/QAR 1.1894 USD/ZAR 13.8341 ZAR/QAR 0.2632 USD/BRL 3.1690 BRL/QAR 1.1491 FX Commentary USD was little changed against the basket of six major currencies, with dollar index up 0.02% as investors remained cautious ahead of the final debate before next month's US presidential election. CAD started on a strong note, powered by gains in oil prices, however closed the session lower as Bank of Canada surprised markets with a dovish tilt after holding rates at 0.5%. GBP ended in green on the back of steady UK unemployment rate, which stood at a near 11-year low of 4.9% in the three months to August. EUR weakened against greenback on growing anticipation on how ECB will chart a course to taper bond purchase program in December. AUD strengthened after data showed that Chinese economy expanded at a steady rate indicating healthy demand in commodity. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.46 0.53 0.88 1.57 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.07) 1.04 1.14 1.36 1.62 2.04 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 2.10 2.39 2.65 EIBOR 0.41 0.52 0.74 1.26 1.83 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.50 2.13 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 3.99% 4.0% 1.99% 2.0% 2.36% 2.36% 1.38% 1.68% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.86% 2.49% 0.54% 0.0% 1.09% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 26.4 5.6 Turkey 248.5 18.0 UK 38.6 (1.4) Brazil 263.1 (73.0) Germany 18.7 (0.5) Egypt 481.8 (3.8) France 28.9 (8.7) Abu Dhabi 66.7 (16.3) 137.6 9.4 Bahrain 391.5 34.6 (61.8) 2.52% 2.0% 1.04% 1.0% 0.0% 1.99% 1.69% 1.38% 1.58% 1.40% 1.25% 1.94% Italy 0.73% 2 Yrs Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1034.28 (94.2) Dubai 147.7 Russia 228.0 (19.4) Qatar 90.3 7.0 Japan 33.6 (6.9) Saudi Arabia 142.5 (1.9) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 14:45 Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate Oct-20th 0.00% 0.00% 14:45 Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate Oct-20th (0.40%) (0.40%) 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Oct-15th 250k 246k Oct-14th -- 395.4b Sep 5.35m 5.33m 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve 17:00 US Existing Home Sales Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name The Commercial Bank Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 1,531.6 2.6 950.3 9.8 98.9 Doha Bank Medicare Group Al Khalij Commercial Bank Islamic Holding Group Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 2.9 (1.0) (100.4) (100.5) 1.5 310.6 (8.9) (12.3) (23.9) (18.6) 4.8 (85.3) (71.0) 524.0 23.8 2.9 104.8 (36.2) (36.2) 1.8 (28.1) (49.1) 0.3 (249.8) (65.3) Saudi Basic Industries Corp 33,310.0 (10.8) (3.4) 5,220.0 (6.8) 10.2 Saudi Telecom Co 13,498.0 4.7 (0.6) 2,148.0 (7.5) 15.1 Etihad Etisalat Co 2,932.0 (20.4) (10.9) (167.7) 5.9 (991.2) 332.2 95.5 44.2 (81.0) (1,088.9) (201.7) Emaar Economic City Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 20 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as on 13th October, 2016) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 7.7 0.0 8.0 1.8 5.5 5.0 2.9 0.0 4.1 6.2 1.9 5.6 3.4 5.9 6.1 4.5 5.2 5.2 0.0 9.0 4.2 5.1 5.4 6.3 2.9 4.7 4.1 3.6 2.4 7.1 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.9 2.2 3.1 7.5 2.6 6.5 3.0 2.0 7.7 4.2 3.1 1.9 2.8 2.2 5.3 5.7 5.0 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.9 2.4 1.1 2.4 1.1 2.3 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.4 1.6 3.1 1.4 2.0 1.2 0.8 4.4 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.6 3.2 2.6 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.1 1.0 2.7 0.6 2.5 1.7 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.3 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.8 14.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.5 (H) (ç) 10.1 12.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 44.8 11.6 12.4 10.7 28.9 11.2 20.9 7.9 24.5 11.9 10.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.0 14.3 6.2 11.5 15.0 18.2 16.2 18.2 14.9 22.5 11.2 11.0 16.1 20.1 11.7 19.7 4.3 11.8 12.8 16.2 25.6 13.3 15.0 21.1 12.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.2 16.4 13.3 10.1 12.1 13.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.5 0.4 6.0 4.1 10.4 8.2 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.5 12.6 6.8 1.0 1.9 6.6 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 7.7 2.9 1.1 1.8 4.4 10.2 4.5 5.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.5 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 77.2 9.9 38.8 34.9 52.6 64.7 20.9 73.5 8.6 14.2 14.6 104.7 42.7 12.2 21.0 53.8 11.0 65.7 19.5 30.3 50.2 23.9 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 21.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 39.6 39.1 23.1 37.4 59.8 18.1 35.3 17.2 10.7 104.0 64.6 154.9 10.7 85.4 82.5 200.5 28.6 147.5 10.5 11.1 64.0 78.3 15.1 35.0 107.0 17.0 210.3 51.5 42.4 85.0 22.0 20.5 87.4 44.0 53.2 33.7 16.7 13.7 19.6 98.0 10.8 55.7 23.8 87.9 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4