GCC Daily Market Update - 22 September

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 22 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,163.1 18,293.7 4,853.7 6,834.8 10,436.5 4,409.6 77,915.9 16,807.6 23,669.9 3,025.9 28,507.4 23.4 163.7 48.5 4.0 42.6 21.0 602.4 315.5 139.0 2.9 (15.8) 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 (0.1) (0.4) (0.6) 1.7 0.8 (1.5) (0.6) 2.6 (0.5) 3.0 (1.9) 0.2 5.8 5.0 5.7 9.5 (2.9) (4.9) 8.6 (11.7) 8.0 (14.5) 9.2 10,252.9 5,948.9 4,470.4 3,446.1 5,390.8 5,750.2 1,134.1 1,505.1 2,969.2 (3.6) 23.8 6.5 (9.1) (7.2) (2.0) 2.2 2.4 27.5 (0.0) 0.4 0.2 (0.3) (0.1) (0.0) 0.2 0.2 0.9 (6.7) (2.1) (0.0) (1.7) (0.5) 0.3 (0.7) (1.8) 0.5 (1.7) (13.9) 3.8 9.4 (4.0) 6.4 (6.7) 3.9 6.3 46.8 45.3 3.1 1,327.2 214.5 1.0 1.9 0.0 13.2 (1.1) 2.1 4.4 0.3 1.0 (0.5) 0.4 2.4 6.8 1.5 3.6 26.7 23.5 32.0 25.2 0.5 Source: Bloomberg Global Most major global markets ended higher on Wednesday as US and Japanese Central Bank’s announcements reinforced their commitment to growth-boosting efforts. A rally in oil further supported global stocks. US stocks rallied after the Fed left interest rates unchanged, and projected a less aggressive rise of rates in coming years. The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed up around 0.5%, with Basic resources and Energy stocks leading sectoral indices. The sector benefitted from a 2.1% rise in Brent prices. In Asia. Japanese stocks rallied with Financials surging as high as 6% after the BoJ decided to change its policy framework by adopting a target for long-term interest rates, amending its purchases of exchange traded funds (ETFs) and maintaining the 0.1% negative interest rate. India’s benchmark bucked the broader positive trend on back of profit booking. GCC Gulf stocks ended on a mixed note on Wednesday. Saudi Arabia's Index edged up 0.4% supported by Petrochemical sector which rose on the back of gains in oil prices. Petrochemical heavyweight SABIC added 0.9%. Insurance counter all witnessed strong buying activity as almost all the constituents advanced, recouping some of the heavy losses of the week. Dubai's Index fell 0.3% weighed down by decline in blue chip stocks, while Abu Dhabi index rose 0.2% led by Agthia Group which rose 4%. Qatar Qatar's stock index slipped marginally as 7 of the 22 shares which are now FTSE members pulled back after surged on news of inclusion. Domestic Institutions turned net sellers of the bourse with sell-off majorly witnessed in Real Estate (0.93%), Insurance (0.82%) and Industrials (0.12%) counter. Strong gains in Telecom stocks (2%) contained the fall. The surge in the sector is majorly attributable to Ooredoo, which added 1.4%, after it said that it had no intention of selling any of its interest in Indonesian subsidiary Indosat Ooredoo. In terms of volume, Banking and Telecom stocks together accounted for about 64% of the total traded. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.6 1.6 4.0 53.2 DSM 20 14.3 1.6 4.0 50.5 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.0 1.4 4.0 560.1 UAE (ADX) 11.9 1.4 5.5 37.6 UAE (DFM) 12.3 1.3 4.4 62.8 Kuwait (KSE) 18.5 1.0 4.4 11.2 Oman (MSM) 10.8 1.1 5.0 9.5 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.5 0.4 4.9 0.5 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Al Khalij Comm Bank Ooredoo Qsc Dlala Holding Qatar Navigation Qatar Intl Islamic Top Losers Aamal Co Ezdan Holding Group Barwa Real Estate Co QOIS Qatar Insurance Co Close Price 17.8 97.9 21.9 87.5 65.1 0.7 2.3 0.5 1.5 1.1 4.3 2.4 2.3 1.7 1.7 (0.9) 30.5 18.4 (7.9) 1.2 (16.4) 28.8 9.9 (11.6) (13.0) 4.8 9.9 263.5 12.2 9.7 NA 0.2 10.0 34.7 12.5 14.6 17.1 34.3 10.8 86.2 (0.3) (0.2) (0.4) (0.1) (0.8) (1.9) (1.2) (1.0) (1.0) (0.9) 4.1 7.5 (14.4) (12.0) 24.0 9.4 (8.3) (20.3) (20.7) 8.2 58.0 256.9 168.6 33.7 60.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 14.3 25.9 16.4 29.2 17.5 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 27/Jun 30.0 10,252.9 20.0 10.0 0.0 11/Jul 25/Jul 8/Aug Index Volume (mn) 22/Aug 5/Sep 19/Sep Index Value Closing Level 2,832.3 6,321.0 3,063.9 4,508.1 2,437.7 1,192.7 2,447.5 1D Change (%) 0.3 0.5 (0.1) (0.8) (0.9) 2.0 1.5 Buy (%) 16.9 24.5 41.4 6.4 52.2 58.6 Sell (%) 14.5 31.0 45.4 8.4 46.2 54.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 22 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS         OECD trimmed its global growth forecasts by 0.1% for 2016, with 2.9% and 3.2% in 2017 and 2018 respectively. A collapse in trade growth suggests that globalization may be stalling and is contributing to a stagnation in world economic output. (Source: Bloomberg) OECD has slashed its 2017 growth forecast for UK in half to 1% from 2% forecasted in June-16, acknowledging that financial markets has stabilized since the immediate volatility in the wake of the referendum and swift action by Bank of England. (Source: Independent) The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25% to 0.50%. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to its 2% inflation target. (Source: Federal Reserve) Moody's said that Chinese life insurers show a decreasing trend in their solvency positions under China's Risk-Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS), mainly due to substantial new business growth, the correction in the equity market and an increase in reserves due to lower valuation rates. (Source: Moody’s)  Saudi Binladin Group has requested a second extension on an SAR 817mn (USD 217.9mn) Islamic loan being used to fund construction at the kingdom's Grand Mosque. The company has previously requested an extension to 31st Aug-16. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Electricity Company has awarded a major contract to Indian construction giant Larsen & Toubro (L&T) for building a 132 kV double circuit transmission line besides a 132 kV cabling in the Rafah, Arar, and Sakaka areas of the kingdom. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hokair Company has won a major contract to develop a commercial and entertainment district adjacent to King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah. The development, King Abdulaziz International Airport City, will boast two hotels and commercial and administrative centres. (Source: Arabian Business)  Gulf Mining Group has planned to set up a major potash mining project targeting prolific reserves in central Oman. Initial investments in the project are estimated at between USD 300 - 500mn, effectively making it the single largest mining related venture in the Sultanate. (Source: Oman Daily Observer)  The Bank of Japan shifted the focus of its monetary stimulus from expanding the money supply to targeting interest rates on government bonds to achieve its inflation target. The bank would adjust the volume of its asset purchases in the short term to control bond yields, while keeping it at about JPY 80tn (USD 780bn) annually over the long term. (Source: Bloomberg)  Japan's exports fell 9.6% YoY in August-16 dragged down by shipments of cars and steel. The fall was for 11th consecutive month, due to the strong JPY and sluggish overseas demand, in a sign that an exportreliant economy may struggle to accelerate in Q3-16. (Source: Reuters) Kuwait’s trade surplus with Japan shrank 52.8% YoY to JPY 25.2bn (USD 248mn) in Auguest-16, according to Japanese Finance Ministry. Kuwait’s overall exports to Japan Plunged 40.7% YoY to JPY 40.2bn (USD 496mn) for Q1-16, while import from Japan rose 4% YoY to JPY 15bn (USD 148mn) for the same period. (Source: KUNA)  Kuwait’s GDP declined 25.9% YoY to KWD 34mn in 2015, according to Central Bank of Kuwait. The GDP at current price amounted to KWD 34,314.6mn during 2015. Meanwhile, CPI-based Inflation was 3.3% during 2015, compared with 2.9% during 2014. (Source: KUNA) Arabian Business) The shock to Turkey's economy from the failed coup in July-16 has largely dissipated, Moody's said. The agency further added that Turkey's challenges remain in longer-term, pointing to the country's policymaking drives and the economy's sensitivities to external factors such as global interest rate shifts and capital flows. (Source: Reuters)  India posted current account deficit of USD 300mn in Q2-16 (0.1% of GDP) compared to USD 6.1bn (1.2% of GDP) in Q2-15. Private transfer receipts, fell to USD 15.2bn in Q2-16 from USD 16.3bn a year ago, due to an economic slowdown in popular work destinations such as the Middle East. (Source: Reuters) Consumption of natural gas in Qatar has witnessed a steep rise of 40% over the last five years from 32.1bn m3 (bcm) in 2010 to 45.2bcm in 2015, according to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016 report. Increasing population and rapid expansion of infrastructure are the main drivers behind surge in consumption. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatari investments in Turkey are expected to increase by USD 12bn once the agreement for a power generating project in southern Turkey is finalized, according to the Vice Chairman of Qatar Chamber. Currently, Qatar ranks second in terms of investment size at USD 20bn in Turkey. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar’s banks will continue to face challenges in H1-16, but is expected to turn more positive in 2017, according to KPMG. As the FIFA World Cup draws near, KPMG expect a pickup in government spending on committed projects, which will fuel balance sheet growth for banks in Qatar. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Stock Exchange in cooperation with Iridium will launch the IR Excellence Program for the second year to encourage listed companies to adhere to the international best practices in disclosure, transparency and investor relations. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Airways has announced to introduce nearly 40% additional capacity to its two South American gateways- Buenos Aires and Sao Paulo from 1st December-16 as the airline upgrades its aircraft operating on the route from a Boeing 777-200LR to a Boeing 777300ER. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar Cool, Doha’s premier provider of district cooling announced that it will commission the third plant in the West Bay district in 2017. The new cooling plant is designed to have a capacity of 40,000 tons of refrigeration. (Source: Gulf Times) QATAR NEWS GCC NEWS   Banks in emerging markets of the GCC countries, Nigeria, Russia, South Africa, and Turkey will remain under pressure for the remainder of 2016 and 2017 due to low commodity prices and geopolitical risks, according to S&P. (Source: Arabian Business) UAE based MSA Holdings has bought the local operations of McDonald's Corp from Shanduka Group for an undisclosed amount. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwait Food Co's (Americana) said that conditions for Gulf-based Adeptio to buy its 69% stake have been met, in order to complete the USD 2.4bn deal. Adeptio will now proceed with the acquisition of the shares according to the Kuwait market's rules and regulations. (Source: UAE's largest online home services provider, MoveSouq.com announced the successful closure of a USD 3mn funding round at an undisclosed valuation. The funding round was led by AddVenture, an international venture capital company focused on service marketplaces. (Source: Zawya)  Average rents in Dubai fell by 5% MoM in August-16, while rental values in Abu Dhabi rose by 3% MoM, according to the real estate website Bayut.com. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi has received six bids to build a 350 megawatt solar plant in the emirate, one of which was cited by the Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Authority (ADWEA), the lowest equated to USD 2.42 cents per kilowatt-hour. (Source: Arabian Business) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 22 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1219 USD/QAR 3.6415 100.3200 EUR/QAR 4.0854 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.3062 JPY/QAR 0.0363 USD/CHF 0.9739 GBP/QAR 4.7565 USD/CAD 1.3101 CHF/QAR 3.7391 AUD/USD 0.7624 CAD/QAR 2.7796 NZD/USD 0.7350 AUD/QAR 2.7763 USD/INR 66.5212 INR/QAR 0.0547 USD/TRY 2.9553 TRY/QAR 1.2322 USD/ZAR 13.5779 ZAR/QAR 0.2682 USD/BRL 3.2069 BRL/QAR 1.1355 FX Commentary The USD extended losses against a basket of major currencies after the US Fed left monetary policy unchanged and projected a less aggressive rise of interest rates in coming years. Fed policymakers cut the number of rate increases they expect this year to one from two, and also projected a less aggressive rise in rates next year and in 2018. Losses were limited by the Fed statement suggesting it was still open to a December rate increase. The dollar index extended its decline to a five-day low of 95.515, off more than 0.50% and down from a more than six-week high of 96.333 touched earlier. Investors took a skeptical stance on the BOJ's shift to targeting interest rates on government bonds to achieve its elusive inflation target, sending JPY higher against the dollar. EUR and CAD rose supported by weakness in USD. CAD further benefitted from gains in oil prices. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.42 0.46 0.54 0.87 1.56 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.30) (0.06) 0.99 1.11 1.38 1.57 1.93 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 2.07 2.35 2.65 EIBOR 0.28 0.44 0.75 1.24 1.79 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.35 1.83 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.19 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 3.96% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.96% 2.27% 2.27% 1.06% 1.33% 1.61% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 1.06% 2.36% 0.59% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 25.4 5.1 Turkey 255.8 (1.2) UK 33.0 (4.2) Brazil 273.0 (93.4) Germany 17.8 (2.3) Egypt 480.2 (16.7) France 28.6 (5.8) Abu Dhabi 67.4 (28.2) 137.5 9.9 Bahrain 384.2 10.4 2.67% 1.0% 1.83% 1.50% 2.0% 2.15% 0.80% 1.51% 1.34% 1.04% 1.22% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 1.84% Italy Greece 0.0% 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,039.7 (83.4) Dubai 147.5 (55.9) Russia 215.0 (68.3) Qatar 90.7 (9.8) Japan 34.5 (12.5) Saudi Arabia 153.3 (6.8) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 09:45 France Manufacturing Confidence Sep 101 101 09:45 France Production Outlook Indicator Sep 0 0 09:45 France Own-Company Production Outlook Sep 0 (1) 13:00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Sep (5) (5) 15:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Aug 0.15 0.27 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Sep-17th 261k 260k 15:30 US Continuing Claims Sep-10th 2140k 2143k 16:00 US FHFA House Price Index MoM 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve 16:45 US Bloomberg Economic Expectations 16:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 17:00 EU Consumer Confidence 17:00 US 17:00 US 17:00 18:00 03:30 Jul 0.30% 0.20% Sep-16th -- 399.6b 44.5 Sep -- Sep-18th -- 42.2 Sep A (8.2) (8.5) Existing Home Sales Aug 5.45m 5.39m Existing Home Sales MoM Aug 1.10% (3.20%) US Leading Index Aug 0.00% 0.40% US Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Sep (3) (4) Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Sep P -- 49.5 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE September 22 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.4 8.0 0.0 8.5 1.8 5.6 5.2 3.0 0.0 4.3 6.2 1.9 5.5 3.4 5.5 4.3 4.8 5.1 0.0 8.8 4.2 4.8 5.1 6.4 2.8 5.1 6.1 4.1 3.7 2.5 7.1 3.9 4.6 4.5 4.9 2.3 3.0 7.3 2.7 6.3 2.9 2.0 7.7 4.1 3.2 0.0 2.5 2.3 5.6 5.9 5.3 3.7 P/B Ratio (x) 1.7 0.9 2.4 1.0 2.5 1.1 2.2 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.7 2.6 3.3 1.5 2.0 1.2 0.8 4.4 0.8 1.9 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 3.1 2.6 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.1 1.0 2.6 0.7 2.6 1.7 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.4 2.2 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.7 P/E Ratio (x) 12.5 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.1 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.0 12.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 45.7 11.1 12.3 10.8 29.5 11.1 22.2 25.7 13.1 10.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.2 14.3 6.6 12.8 14.9 18.4 15.0 7.9 18.2 14.5 21.9 11.1 10.8 15.0 20.1 11.6 19.1 4.5 12.2 12.5 16.8 26.2 13.3 14.9 21.6 11.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 18.6 15.8 12.4 9.8 11.5 13.8 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.2 0.4 6.0 4.1 8.2 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.5 12.6 6.3 1.0 1.9 6.6 10.4 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 8.0 3.0 1.1 1.8 4.4 10.2 4.5 5.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.5 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 74.2 9.9 38.1 34.9 64.7 20.9 73.5 8.6 14.2 14.6 104.7 41.2 12.2 21.0 53.8 52.6 11.0 65.7 19.5 30.3 48.4 24.3 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 21.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.1 Stock Price (QR) 42.0 37.7 22.5 35.3 60.5 17.9 33.9 16.5 10.9 99.5 64.2 152.9 10.9 90.9 210.0 31.5 149.1 10.6 11.3 64.0 83.3 15.0 35.3 99.0 82.2 17.0 204.4 50.0 42.1 85.7 22.1 20.3 84.5 46.0 54.7 35.0 17.1 13.8 19.5 95.2 10.3 53.5 22.2 84.9 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4