GCC Daily Market Update - 17 October

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 17 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,133.0 18,138.4 4,808.5 7,013.6 10,580.4 4,470.9 77,554.2 16,856.4 23,233.3 3,063.8 27,673.6 0.4 39.4 5.4 35.8 166.3 65.8 743.9 82.1 202.0 2.5 30.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.1 0.1 (1.6) (0.9) (1.4) 1.7 0.7 0.5 1.4 2.5 (0.3) 2.0 (0.7) 4.4 4.1 4.7 12.4 (1.5) (3.6) 8.1 (11.4) 6.0 (13.4) 6.0 10,367.7 5,632.7 4,315.6 3,301.8 5,309.2 5,651.1 1,141.0 1,492.6 2,918.3 (22.2) (61.3) (31.6) (33.1) (18.9) (9.2) (3.6) (0.3) (0.0) (0.2) (1.1) (0.7) (1.0) (0.4) (0.2) (0.3) (0.0) (0.0) (0.6) 0.2 (3.6) (5.0) (1.7) (1.3) (0.8) (1.9) (2.1) (0.6) (18.5) 0.2 4.8 (5.4) 4.5 (6.2) 3.2 4.2 52.0 50.4 3.3 1,253.1 211.1 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (1.9) (1.2) (0.2) (0.2) (1.7) (0.2) (0.5) 5.8 4.1 11.6 (4.6) (4.2) 39.2 35.6 38.8 18.2 (0.8) Source: Bloomberg Global Most major global indices ended higher on Friday buoyed by better than expected Chinese inflation data which eased some concerns about the slowdown in the second largest economy. US Indices rose lifted by gains in financial stocks after J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo reported better than expected earnings. Additionally better than expected US retail sales also added to the optimism in the market. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.3% lifted by banking stocks. DAX rose 1.6% lifted by utility companies on news that these companies will pay a less-than-expected levy into a national fund. FTSE 100 rose 0.5% lifted by Mining stocks which were the buoyed by positive economic data from China. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.5% on weaker yen. Shanghai Composite rose 2.5% after the data released on Friday revealed that Chinese producer prices turned positive for the first time since 2012, an encouraging sign for economic activity. GCC Most major gulf indices retreated on Monday. Saudi Arabia’s Index fell 1.1% dragged down by banking stocks as the Kingdom’s largest listed bank, National Commercial Bank plunged 5.6% after reporting lower than expected earnings. Dubai’s index closed 1.0% lower as Druke & Scull retreated by 3.7%, while Abu Dhabi’s benchmark fell 0.7% weighed by Etisalat, which dropped 0.8%. Oman’s Index edged down 0.2% dragged down by National Bank of Oman after the company reported 15.2% fall in its Q3 net profit. Qatar QE Index fell 0.2% in a board sell-off, with strong selling activity witnessed in Transport (-0.7%), Insurance (0.5%) and Industrials (0.4%) counter. Qatari retail investors were the net sellers on the bourse however buying interest from Institutional and foreign retail investors capped losses. Banking and telecom sectors constituted about 62% of the total traded volumes. Out of the 44 companies listed, 42 exchanged hands, of which 28 declined, 8 advanced and 6 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.7 1.6 4.0 19.4 DSM 20 14.4 1.6 3.9 14.3 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 13.4 1.3 4.2 569.1 UAE (ADX) 11.5 1.4 5.7 18.5 UAE (DFM) 11.8 1.2 4.2 52.9 Kuwait (KSE) 18.3 1.0 4.5 16.8 Oman (MSM) 10.8 1.1 5.1 9.1 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.5 0.4 4.9 1.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers National Leasing Al Khaleej Takaful Gr Al Meera Consumer Islamic Holding Group Commercial Bank Qsc Top Losers Doha Insurance Co Qatar Industrial Manf. Qatar National Cement Medicare Group Zad Holding Co Close Price 18.0 22.5 202.0 60.2 39.3 0.8 0.5 1.5 0.4 0.2 4.4 2.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 27.3 (26.2) (8.2) (23.5) (14.4) (1.6) (35.7) (17.0) (31.3) (30.9) 198.7 16.2 13.1 8.7 28.9 NA 20.6 25.2 291.7 18.9 19.8 41.3 83.0 83.8 77.2 (0.7) (1.2) (2.0) (1.6) (1.1) (3.4) (2.7) (2.4) (1.9) (1.4) (5.7) 3.5 (10.5) (29.8) (9.0) (15.7) (1.8) (16.2) (50.0) (17.9) 0.1 0.6 38.1 11.8 0.7 11.3 10.8 10.7 20.5 10.1 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 20/Jul 30.0 20.0 10,367.7 10.0 0.0 3/Aug 17/Aug 31/Aug Index Volume (mn) 14/Sep 28/Sep 12/Oct Index Value Closing Level 2,865.4 6,165.1 3,162.7 4,514.9 2,388.2 1,196.8 2,487.5 1D Change (%) (0.1) (0.3) (0.4) (0.5) (0.1) (0.3) (0.7) Buy (%) 29.8 23.7 53.5 17.6 28.9 46.5 Sell (%) 55.5 14.5 70.0 10.9 19.1 30.0 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 17 , 2016 winning consultancy will also help the company in the tendering process for the 200 MW independent power project. (Source: Trade Arabia) GLOBAL NEWS  President of Federal Reserve Boston said that he expects unemployment to fall to 4.7% and inflation to beat the 2% target by mid-2017, which will leave policymakers at risk of having to suppress the recovery with faster than expected rate increases. (Source: Reuters)  Bank Dhofar said that its board has decided to discontinue its negotiations with Bank Sohar for the proposed merger. The decision to walk away from the merger comes four months after the banks agreed terms of the share-swap ratio for the deal. (Source: Times Of Oman)  US business inventories rose by 0.2% MoM in August-16 after coming unchanged in July-16. The rise was supported by a 0.6% MoM gain in retail inventories. (Source: Reuters)  Bahrain-based Batelco has signed an MoU with Ericsson, to collaborate on the development of 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) use cases. (Source: Trade Arabia)  BRICS group’s President said that the group’s development bank will ramp up lending to USD 2.5bn in 2017. He further added that with Russian, Brazilian and South African economy on a downtrend and China slowing, the initial euphoria has faded, yet there is much to gain by deepening their cooperation. (Source: Reuters)  Kuwait National Petroleum Co is expecting to finalise a loan worth over USD 5bn to finance its Clean Fuels project by the end of Q1-17, CEO of the company said. NBK Capital was acting as exclusive financial adviser for the facility, while HSBC is coordinating the transaction.  Bank of Japan Governor said that the economy is expected to expand moderately and the central bank will adjust monetary policy as needed to achieve its 2% inflation target taking economic, price and financial developments into consideration. (Source: Reuters)   India’s exports grew by 4.6% YoY to USD 22.90bn in September-16 compared to USD 21.80bn in September-15, on the back of healthy growth in sectors such as engineering, gems and jewellery. However, imports contracted by 2.5% YoY to USD 31.22bn for the same period. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  Qatar CPI rose 0.1% MoM in September-16. The annual CPI inflation has risen 2.6% YoY, mainly due to costlier recreation, transport and housing and utilities, according to the MDPS. The education group, which carries 5.8% weight in the CPI basket, saw an increase of 1.6% MoM in September-16, while Recreation and Culture, which has 12.7% weightage, rose 0.7%. (Source: Gulf Times)  All six GCC countries will experience sharp economic slowdowns in the coming months and throughout 2017, but Qatar is expected to weather the storm better than most, according to a report by BMI Research. (Source: Doha News)  Qatar’s large financial buffers will facilitate the continuation of infrastructure projects in the country, according to BMI Research. The research firm doesn’t expect Qatar to significantly draw down on its reserves or assets. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Qatari royal family has put a halt on its future equity investment to beleaguered Deutsche Bank, as bank is under investigation by the US Department of Justice for alleged misselling of mortgage-backed securities. (Source: Arabian Business)  More than 70% of Qatar’s SMEs have posted cumulative investments worth USD 852.3mn in 2015, Secretary General the Gulf Organisation for Industrial Consulting said. The amount came from 77.3% of the total 771 manufacturing factories in Qatar, and represents about 1% of the total industrial investments valued at around USD 82.4bn. (Source: Live Mint) GCC NEWS  Q3-16 earnings of UAE banks are likely to take a hit due to oil price withering and lower business growth, according to a report by EFGHermes. Atleast nine UAE banks are expected to witness a 6% YoY fall in profits as revenues slow and reserve to cover bad debt rise. (Source: Arabian Business)  Hotels in Abu Dhabi recorded a 2% YoY increase in profit per room in August-16 as management slashed costs to offset the 9.2% decline in total revenue, according to the HotStats. (Source: Arabian Business)  Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Deputy Ruler of Dubai and UAE Minister of Finance, has approved AED 128mn (USD 34.8mn) residential complex for employees of the Dubai Corporation for Ambulance Services. (Source: Arabian Business)   Dubai International’s USD 1.2bn Concourse D, which was opened in February-16, has won the Airport Development of the Year award at the 10th Aviation Business Awards in Dubai, UAE. (Source: Trade Arabia) Saudi Arabia's Finance Ministry will close its accounts for this year's budget on 15th November-16, according to the Ministry. Traditionally, the Ministry has closed its books in mid-December each year. (Source: (Source: Gulf Times) Arabian Business)  Saudi Oger has begun talks with potential buyers for its 20.9% stake in Arab Bank to raise about USD 1bn for the company. The fund raising is a part of company’s multibillion-dollar debt restructuring. (Source: Kuwait's Emir ordered the dissolution of parliament. He said that the regional developments and security challenges meant the national assembly should choose fresh representatives. Elections now need to be held under constitutional rules. (Source: Arabian Business)  Nakilat reported net profit of QAR 747.8mn in 9M-16 compared to QAR 756.3mn for the same period of the previous year. EPS amounted to QAR 1.35 in 9M-16 compared to QAR 1.37 for the same period of the previous year. (Source: QSE) Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia's National Commercial Bank reported a 1.6% fall in net profit to SAR 1.96bn (USD 523mn) in Q3-16 as compared to SAR 1.99bn in Q3-15. The bank blames its performance on an 18.7% rise in operating expenses, caused by higher impairment charges on financing and investments. (Source: Reuters)  Ezdan Holding is seeking a US dollar-denominated syndicated loan. The facility is being arranged by banks outside Qatar, with Dubai's Mashreq bank and HSBC playing lead roles. The loan is estimated to be an upward of USD 500mn and would be finalised by the end of October-16. (Source: Reuters)  The Ascott Limited, Singapore-based serviced residence owneroperator, has unveiled its plans to open two new properties in the Saudi Arabia. Both projects in Makkah and Jeddah are expected to open next year. (Source: Arabian Business)  Ooredoo said that its plans to sell a part of its Maldives operation, via an IPO on the island nation's stock exchange. The offer, made under the terms of its licence obligations, will be open to both local and international investors. (Source: Arabian Business)  Oman Power and Water Procurement Company is seeking bids from major consultants to conduct a technical and economic study for setting up the first large-scale solar project in the sultanate. The  Qatargas has successfully delivered more than 2,500 LNG cargoes to its Japanese customers, Chairman of the company said at the annual reception hosted by Qatargas for its Japanese partners and customers in Tokyo. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 17 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1002 USD/QAR 3.6414 104.1800 EUR/QAR 4.0063 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2221 JPY/QAR 0.0350 USD/CHF 0.9903 GBP/QAR 4.4502 USD/CAD 1.3139 CHF/QAR 3.6771 AUD/USD 0.7618 CAD/QAR 2.7714 NZD/USD 0.7087 AUD/QAR 2.7740 USD/INR 66.2150 INR/QAR 0.0550 USD/TRY 3.0903 TRY/QAR 1.1783 USD/ZAR 14.3182 ZAR/QAR 0.2543 USD/BRL 3.2062 BRL/QAR 1.1357 FX Commentary USD rose against most major currencies on Friday with dollar index up 0.6% as robust retail sales and producer prices supported the view of modest US economic expansion, strengthening the Federal Reserve’s case to raise interest rates by December. The gains were however capped following Fed Chairman’s aggressive stance on letting inflation cross its 2% inflation target. CAD gained against its US counterpart due to rise in oil prices. GBP fell as there was unexpected fall in British construction output, however statements by Bank of England Governor over higher expected inflation due to lower GBP, pulled back the currency. EUR fell against greenback, despite recovery in trade surplus. CNY recovered some losses as pickup in China's consumer prices eased concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy after weak trade numbers. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.46 0.54 0.88 1.59 (0.40) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.07) 0.98 1.09 1.33 1.61 2.04 LIBOR EURIBOR QAIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year SAIBOR NA NA 2.10 2.39 2.65 EIBOR 0.44 0.51 0.75 1.27 1.83 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.25 1.56 2.13 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.01% 4.0% 1.99% 2.0% 2.36% 2.36% 1.43% 1.74% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 1.02% 2.54% 1.15% 0.56% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 26.5 6.3 Turkey 252.8 9.7 UK 35.8 (5.1) Brazil 267.5 (70.0) Germany 19.5 2.7 Egypt 480.2 27.2 France 28.8 (2.0) Abu Dhabi 67.6 (16.2) 137.1 10.2 Bahrain 386.1 17.8 2.53% 2.0% 1.06% 1.0% 0.0% 2.00% 1.69% 1.38% 1.63% 1.45% 1.30% 1.99% Italy 0.73% 2 Yrs Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,028.6 (177.1) Dubai 149.3 (60.4) Russia 234.4 (35.0) Qatar 88.6 3.6 Japan 32.5 (10.0) Saudi Arabia 147.6 4.6 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event 07:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Period Survey Prior Aug F -- 1.50% 12:00 Eurozone CPI MoM 12:00 Eurozone CPI YoY Sep 0.40% 0.10% Sep F 0.40% 0.20% 15:30 US Empire Manufacturing Oct 1 (1.99) 16:15 US Industrial Production MoM Sep 0.20% (0.40%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Saudi British Bank NA NA NA 995.00 (12.69) (13.60) Bank Al-Jazira NA NA NA 161.00 (2.86) (9.30) Boubyan Bank K.S.C NA NA NA 10.72 17.52 9.28 Oman Telecommunications Co 128.20 1.17 (5.81) 28.30 (3.79) (11.52) Yanbu National Petrochemical NA NA NA 607.60 101.38 (11.85) Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co 2,313.00 5.39 7.35 156.32 (1,232.26) 71.74 National Commercial Bank NA NA NA 1,962.00 (1.61) (19.51) Alinma Bank NA NA NA 312.00 (16.84) (23.74) 69.10 6.35 3.60 12.70 24.89 3.52 Ooredoo Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE October 17 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (as on 13th October, 2016) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 7.7 0.0 8.0 1.8 5.5 5.0 2.9 0.0 4.1 6.2 1.9 5.6 3.4 5.9 6.1 4.5 5.2 5.2 0.0 9.0 4.2 5.1 5.4 6.3 2.9 4.7 4.1 3.6 2.4 7.1 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.9 2.2 3.1 7.5 2.6 6.5 3.0 2.0 7.7 4.2 3.1 1.9 2.8 2.2 5.3 5.7 5.0 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.9 2.4 1.1 2.4 1.1 2.3 0.8 1.0 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.4 1.6 3.1 1.4 2.0 1.2 0.8 4.4 0.8 1.8 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.6 3.2 2.6 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.1 1.0 2.7 0.6 2.5 1.7 0.7 1.5 1.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.5 2.3 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 11.8 14.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.5 (H) (ç) 10.1 12.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 44.8 11.6 12.4 10.7 28.9 11.2 20.9 7.9 24.5 11.9 10.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.0 14.3 6.2 11.5 15.0 18.2 16.2 18.2 14.9 22.5 11.2 11.0 16.1 20.1 11.7 19.7 4.3 11.8 12.8 16.2 25.6 13.3 15.0 21.1 12.2 (M) (‫)س‬ 19.2 16.4 13.3 10.1 12.1 13.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.2 9.0 5.2 14.5 0.4 6.0 4.1 10.4 8.2 2.4 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.5 12.6 6.8 1.0 1.9 6.6 0.9 14.1 2.3 3.8 7.7 2.9 1.1 1.8 4.4 10.2 4.5 5.1 2.1 0.7 1.0 1.3 0.9 8.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.8 3.4 1.8 8.7 3.0 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 24.1 44.1 9.5 35.2 24.7 16.4 15.7 20.5 10.3 56.6 35.5 77.2 9.9 38.8 34.9 52.6 64.7 20.9 73.5 8.6 14.2 14.6 104.7 42.7 12.2 21.0 53.8 11.0 65.7 19.5 30.3 50.2 23.9 20.8 21.0 32.4 70.7 21.0 37.9 46.0 11.0 13.1 30.0 16.9 69.9 5.8 23.4 24.2 14.5 115.6 31.2 27.4 Stock Price (QR) 39.6 39.1 23.1 37.4 59.8 18.1 35.3 17.2 10.7 104.0 64.6 154.9 10.7 85.4 82.5 200.5 28.6 147.5 10.5 11.1 64.0 78.3 15.1 35.0 107.0 17.0 210.3 51.5 42.4 85.0 22.0 20.5 87.4 44.0 53.2 33.7 16.7 13.7 19.6 98.0 10.8 55.7 23.8 87.9 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4