GCC Daily Market Update - 9 June

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 9 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,119.1 18,005.1 4,520.6 6,301.5 10,217.0 4,448.7 78,832.7 16,830.9 21,297.9 2,927.2 27,020.7 7.0 66.8 7.5 17.0 (70.7) (27.1) 675.0 155.5 (30.4) (8.9) 11.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 (0.7) (0.6) 0.9 0.9 (0.1) (0.3) 0.0 1.1 1.2 (0.1) 1.1 (0.4) (1.3) 1.3 (2.3) 2.3 0.4 1.3 3.7 3.3 (1.6) 0.9 (4.9) (4.1) 9.9 (11.6) (2.8) (17.3) 3.5 9,919.0 6,605.0 4,408.3 3,354.5 5,406.1 5,887.7 1,116.0 1,447.6 2,903.1 61.0 71.5 62.6 27.4 13.1 44.4 (0.4) 18.2 9.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.8 (0.0) 1.3 0.3 4.0 2.4 3.7 1.2 0.1 1.3 0.4 1.9 1.8 (4.9) (4.4) 2.3 6.5 (3.7) 8.9 (8.2) 1.0 3.6 52.5 51.2 2.5 1,259.8 206.2 1.1 0.9 (0.0) 15.4 1.1 2.1 1.7 (0.2) 1.2 0.5 6.1 5.0 7.9 3.7 (1.1) 41.4 39.1 5.6 18.8 (2.9) Source: Bloomberg Global Global markets closed on a mixed note on Wednesday. US indices closed higher with Raw Material and Industrial stocks leading gains, supported by an uptick in oil prices. European benchmarks closed in the red as concerns over the health of the global economy continued to weigh on markets after the World Bank cut its world growth forecasts from 2.9% to 2.4%. Weak Chinese trade number also contributed to the pessimism. The losses were however offset to some extent by a 2% gain in Basic Resources sector which benefitted from gains in metal prices. Mining heavy FTSE bucked the broader negative trend closing 0.3% higher on back of higher metal prices. Asian markets ended on a mixed note. Japan’s benchmark gained 0.9% after it upgraded its GDP growth estimate, while China’s index edged 0.3% lower on back of weak export numbers. GCC Gulf indices ended in green on Wednesday tracking gains in Brent prices. Saudi Arabia's index rose 1.1% as investors accumulated shares in companies set to benefit from economic reform plans. Property developers Dar Al Arkan and Emaar Economic City surged after they announced that they were in talks with the government to build new homes under the National Transformation Plan. Petrochemical shares (+1.4%) were also strong, supported by gains in oil prices. Dubai's index rose 0.8% supported by Emaar and DAMAC Properties, while Abu Dhabi's index gained 1.4% buoyed by Real Estate and Banking stocks. Qatar QE index continued its upward trajectory ending 0.6% higher driven by positive sentiments in the global oil front where crude hit an eight-month high to USD 52.5 a barrel. Gulf institutions were net buyers in the market, with buying activity concentrated in Telecom, Banking and Industrials stocks, which together constituted 80% of the trading volumes. Buying was seen more pronounced in the Industrials, Transport and Realty segments. About 54% of the stocks in the broader index ended in green. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.1 1.5 4.1 81.3 10,400 DSM 20 13.5 1.5 4.1 70.8 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.2 1.5 3.7 1,487.7 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.7 1.5 5.5 346.8 8,900 UAE (DFM) 11.3 1.2 4.2 131.3 Kuwait (KSE) 18.1 1.0 4.5 25.1 8,400 16/Mar Oman (MSM) 11.2 1.3 4.3 13.2 Bahrain (BAX) 9.3 0.4 4.9 0.1 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Islamic Insurance Mannai Corporation Al Khaleej Takaful Industries Qatar Qatari Investors Group Top Losers Al Ahli Bank Medicare Group Islamic Holding Group National Leasing Salam Intl Investment Close Price 60.0 90.0 24.1 99.9 48.6 2.0 2.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 3.4 2.3 1.7 1.4 1.3 (16.7) (5.6) (21.0) (10.1) 28.9 (28.6) (19.6) (44.0) (26.3) (8.8) 6.3 0.3 15.1 128.2 166.8 12.7 8.3 20.5 14.4 22.9 42.0 95.0 63.0 16.8 11.1 (2.0) (2.0) (1.0) (0.2) (0.1) (4.5) (2.1) (1.6) (1.1) (0.9) (4.2) (20.4) (19.9) 19.3 (6.3) (2.0) (48.6) (44.9) (18.9) (19.1) 6.4 68.5 55.0 46.3 101.9 12.5 18.4 102.8 NA 10.9 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 10,900 20.0 9,919.0 10.0 30/Mar 13/Apr 27/Apr Index Volume (mn) 11/May 25/May 0.0 8/Jun Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,687.8 6,410.4 3,066.1 4,077.2 2,483.5 1,089.7 2,476.5 1D Change (%) 0.4 (0.5) 0.8 (0.0) 0.8 0.1 0.8 Buy (%) 31.7 29.1 60.8 8.8 30.4 39.2 Sell (%) 42.9 35.2 78.1 9.4 12.5 21.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 9 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  British industrial production logged its fastest growth in almost four years in April-16. Industrial output advanced 2.0% MoM in April-16 after a growth of 0.3% in March-16, according to the National Statistics. Growth in manufacturing output was 2.3% MoM. (Source: RTT)  Germany's manufacturing turnover rose a seasonally and workingday-adjusted 0.8% MoM in April-16, reversing a 0.7% drop in March16. On YoY basis, manufacturing turnover grew 0.9% in April-16. (Source:  Revenues of star hotels in Oman fell 8% YoY to OMR 53.0 mn in Q116, according to National Centre for Statistics and Information. The fall in revenue was partly due to a drop in occupancy and to some extent due to discounted room rates offered to local residents as part of attracting local people. Occupancy rate declined to 65.3% for Q1-16, from 66.9% for Q1-15. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman government is keen to develop its OMR 300mn (USD 775mn) medical city project in the Barka region of the sultanate on a publicprivate-partnership model. The medical city, which will come up in a five mn sq. meter area, will offer a total of 1,200 beds, according to a government report. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Oman’s Bank Sohar agreed with Bank Dhofar on the proposed merger to create a bank with combined assets of almost USD 16bn. Each Bank Dhofar share will be exchanged for 1.29 shares of Bank Sohar, according to Bank Sohar. (SourcE: Trade Arabia)  Two Muscat firms, Al Ibtikar for IT and Mwasalat, have been awarded taxi licences by the Oman Ministry of Transport, to operate across a number of different areas in Muscat. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain's Gulf Air announced that its annual losses in 2015 fell by almost BHD 40mn YoY to BHD 24.1mn (USD 63.9mn).The airline losses have fallen from BHD 196mn in 2012 since the company has been restructuring. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain-based Bin Faqeeh is planning to build five luxury developments in five years, the company said. The ‘Limited 5’ project started in 2015 with the development of a high-end residential building resembling a five-star hotel. (Source: Arabian Business) RTT)    Consumer prices in China were up 2.0% YoY in May-16, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. On a monthly basis, consumer prices slipped 0.5% after dipping 0.2% in April-16. Producer prices fell 2.8% YoY as compared to an expected decline of 3.2%. (Source: CNBC) The Japan’s M2 money rose 3.4% YoY in May-16 to JPY 937.9tn, according to the Bank of Japan. While the M3 money stock added 2.8% YoY to JPY 1,256.3tn. (Source: Investing) Japan's core private-sector machinery orders plunged a seasonally adjusted 11% MoM in April-16 as compared to rise of 5.5% in March16, indicating companies' cautiousness towards investments. Orders from the manufacturing sector plunged 13.3% to JPY 332.9bn, while those from the non-manufacturing sector shed 3.9% to JPY 475.0bn. (Source: Nikkei Asian Review)  Turkey's industrial production growth slowed unexpectedly to 0.7% YoY in April-16, much slower than the 3.0% climb in the previous month. Production in the manufacturing sector advanced 0.6% YoY and those of utility sector grew by 3.5% YoY. At the same time, mining and quarrying output registered a decline of 4.5% YoY. (Source: RTT) GCC NEWS  Greenko Energy Holdings, one of India's leading renewable energy firms, has secured USD 230mn in total new funds from an entity owned by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and an affiliate of Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC. (Source: Arabian Business)  AED 677mn (USD 184.3mn) project to build a highway interchange for the rapidly-expanding Abu Dhabi International Airport is expected to be completed in Q4-17. (Source: Arabian Business)  Revenues and rates at Dubai hotels continued to fall between JanuaryApril-16 despite occupancy holding at about 87%, according to HotStats. Average room rate fell by 9.6% YTD in the first four months of 2016 while, revenue per available room fell by 10.5% YTD to USD 258. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai's Shuaa Capital said that Abu Dhabi Financial Group had reached an agreement to buy the 48.36% stake of the investment bank held by Dubai Banking Group. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals. (Source: Arabian Business)  Ramada Dubai hotel in Bur Dubai, operating in Dubai for 33 years, is scheduled to be demolished in September-16, with 31st August fixed as the last day of operations. (Source: Arabian Business)  Dubai-based The World islands has announced a new version of its Floating Seahorse homes which are being built on the island. Designed, engineered and built in the UAE’s 40 Signature Edition Floating Seahorses are now under production and are currently priced at AED 12 mn (USD 3.7mn), the company said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia will pay for parts of its USD 72bn five-year economic reform plan, by making efficiency savings and cutting spending on existing projects, country’s Finance Minister said. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia's Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Co said that it was in talks with the government to provide housing units under the kingdom's economic reform plan. (Source: Arabian Business) QATAR NEWS  Qatar is ranked the most peaceful out of the 20 countries in the Mena region and 34th internationally, according to the Global Peace Index GPI 2016. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar will double its capacity for processing condensate by adding almost 150,000 bpd in August-16 when trials begin on a new splitter at the Ras Laffan refinery with commercial production starting by October-16, according to Qatar Petroleum official. Condensate exports are expected to drop from the current 500,000 bpd to about 350,000 bpd when the new splitter starts operating. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar will play a significant role in the global digital signage sector, which is expected to grow to USD 23bn by 2023, Chairman of International Expo Consults said. The major driving force for this growing demand is expected to come from retail, commercial, healthcare, tourism, education and the massive infrastructure development sectors. (Source: The Peninsula)  The General Directorate of Nature Reserves (GDNR) and Qatar Shell have collaborated for the development and implementation of the master plan for Al Reem Biosphere Reserve, which covers almost 10% of the total land area of Qatar. The biosphere reserve was declared in 2007 that aims to efficiently manage natural resources for the wellbeing of both people and environment. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Solar Test Facility inside the Qatar Science and Technology Park plays (QSTP) a significant role in addressing the grand challenge on energy security by focusing on renewables sources like solar, QSTP MD said. (Source: Gulf Times)  Ooredoo signed of a new USD 1bn Revolving Credit Facility Agreement (RCF). The tenor of the facility is six years and it will be used for general corporate purposes including the refinancing of a USD 1bn RCF maturing in March-17. (Source: Gulf Times)  Qatar Petrochemical Company (Qapco) employees and stakeholders celebrated world-class achievement of completing 20mn man-hours recently without a single Lost Time Injury. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 9 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1425 USD/QAR 3.6399 106.9900 EUR/QAR 4.1586 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4534 JPY/QAR 0.0340 USD/CHF 0.9593 GBP/QAR 5.2902 USD/CAD 1.2693 CHF/QAR 3.7943 AUD/USD 0.7471 CAD/QAR 2.8676 NZD/USD 0.7010 AUD/QAR 2.7194 USD/INR 66.1512 INR/QAR 0.0550 USD/TRY 2.8928 TRY/QAR 1.2583 USD/ZAR 14.7386 ZAR/QAR 0.2470 USD/BRL 3.3622 BRL/QAR 1.0826 FX Commentary The USD continued its downward trajectory falling to a five-week low against a basket of currencies on Wednesday as traders reduced bets of an imminent US interest rate increase following a poor jobs report released on Friday and perceived dovish comments from the Federal Reserve chief made on Monday. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six currencies, shed 0.24% at 93.601. The EUR gained against the greenback majorly due to weakness in dollar. Gains were however limited as the European Central Bank began buying corporate debt for its bond purchase program in a bid to boost the euro zone economy. Stronger-than-expected Chinese import data boosted the AUD, NZD and other commodity-sensitive currencies versus the greenback as improved imports indicated higher anticipated demand from oil and other metals. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.39 0.41 0.45 0.66 1.29 (0.40) (0.36) (0.35) (0.26) (0.02) QAIBOR 1.37 1.46 1.59 1.76 1.99 SAIBOR NA NA 1.93 2.19 2.44 EIBOR 0.35 0.41 0.71 1.12 1.69 BMIBOR 0.43 0.63 0.93 1.33 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.40% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% 2.31% 2.55% 2.55% 1.10% 1.39% 1.65% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.98% 2.49% 0.64% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 4.0% US 20.7 1.1 Turkey 241.4 (35.8) UK 32.5 14.8 Brazil 326.0 (127.5) Germany 18.6 5.9 Egypt 488.4 12.5 France 37.6 12.0 Abu Dhabi Italy 131.0 39.6 Greece 909.0 Russia 235.1 Japan 37.0 2.0% 0.0% 2.56% 2.26% 1.91% 0.98% 0.91% 2 Yrs 1.56% 1.35% 1.18% 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 2.99% 2.02% 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 96.3 8.8 Bahrain 347.2 (10.9) (183.1) Dubai 210.4 (24.7) (55.8) Qatar 114.2 27.7 (14.4) Saudi Arabia 163.5 21.6 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 9:00 Japan Machine Tool Orders YoY May P -- (26.30%) 9:00 Germany Trade Balance Apr 22.8b 26.2b 11:30 UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Apr (£11,100) (£1,1204) 11:30 UK Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn Apr (£3,200) (£3,114) 11:30 UK Trade Balance Apr (£3,700) (£3,830) 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jun-04th 270k 267k 15:30 Canada New Housing Price Index MoM Apr 0.20% 0.20% 15:30 US Continuing Claims May-28th 2,171k 2,172k 16:00 Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Jun-03rd -- 389.0b 16:45 US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Jun-05th -- 43.2 17:00 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Apr 0.10% 0.10% 2:50 Japan PPI YoY May (4.20%) (4.20%) Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Intl Financial Advisors NA NA NA (4.41) 40.28 25.06 Amwal International Investme NA NA NA 0.19 410.08 (252.81) Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE June 9 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 8.3 0.0 8.5 1.7 6.1 5.3 3.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.5 6.5 2.1 5.6 3.7 5.2 4.3 4.6 5.0 0.0 9.0 4.6 4.7 5.1 7.4 2.7 5.2 5.7 3.8 3.7 2.7 7.3 3.8 4.6 4.3 5.2 2.6 2.7 6.9 2.9 7.1 2.9 2.1 8.2 4.2 3.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.7 2.1 5.5 5.8 5.2 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.9 0.8 2.3 1.0 2.5 1.0 2.2 0.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.1 1.7 2.8 3.3 1.6 2.1 1.3 0.7 3.7 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 3.3 2.5 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.1 0.9 3.1 0.7 2.9 1.8 0.7 1.5 1.0 0.6 1.1 1.2 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.6 2.5 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 12.8 9.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.0 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.3 11.9 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 10.9 11.7 10.0 25.7 10.5 18.8 24.8 15.2 11.0 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.9 13.7 7.1 12.7 12.9 13.3 14.0 8.2 19.5 14.9 22.0 10.6 11.2 14.4 18.0 8.9 16.5 4.8 12.3 11.2 26.6 26.1 12.5 9.4 21.8 10.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.4 17.8 12.7 9.1 11.4 12.6 EPS (QR) 3.4 3.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.7 5.3 13.6 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 13.7 2.1 3.9 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 4.4 10.3 4.7 5.2 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.9 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.1 3.3 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 23.2 43.4 9.4 34.0 24.5 15.9 15.0 20.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 54.2 34.1 70.9 10.0 36.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.0 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 62.4 18.8 29.2 46.3 23.4 21.5 21.0 23.4 70.7 20.0 32.8 44.7 11.6 12.8 29.8 17.2 69.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 23.3 14.1 114.2 30.6 25.9 Stock Price (QR) 43.0 36.2 21.0 35.2 61.8 16.5 33.4 16.3 11.5 94.7 61.3 136.2 10.8 96.9 208.5 32.5 151.5 11.6 11.1 59.1 86.0 12.9 37.4 96.7 88.0 18.3 203.8 46.7 41.3 86.7 23.3 19.2 73.3 49.9 58.0 31.0 17.0 12.9 18.3 84.4 10.5 58.0 22.9 86.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4