GCC Daily Market Update - 3 May

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 3 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,081.4 16.1 17,891.2 117.5 4,381.3 40.0 6,241.9 NA 10,123.3 84.3 4,442.8 13.8 83,829.9 (1,498.0) 16,147.4 (518.7) 21,067.1 NA 2,938.3 NA 25,437.0 (169.7) 0.8 0.7 0.9 NA 0.8 0.3 (1.8) (3.1) NA NA (0.7) 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.3 (1.8) (3.1) 1.4 (2.2) (0.7) 1.8 2.7 (4.6) (0.0) (5.8) (4.2) 16.9 (15.2) (3.9) (17.0) (2.6) 10,092.1 6,716.5 4,469.8 3,385.3 5,372.5 5,952.1 1,112.7 1,518.0 2,845.4 (95.9) (37.7) (36.3) (62.0) (30.9) 4.0 2.2 0.7 8.9 (0.9) (0.6) (0.8) (1.8) (0.6) 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 (0.9) (1.3) (1.6) (3.1) (0.4) 0.2 0.2 2.0 0.3 (3.2) (2.8) 3.8 7.4 (4.3) 10.1 (8.5) 3.0 1.7 45.8 44.8 2.0 1,295.8 226.2 (2.3) (1.1) (0.1) 5.3 (1.8) (4.8) (2.5) (6.2) 0.4 (0.8) (4.0) (1.8) (6.1) 0.4 (1.4) 23.9 21.8 (12.5) 22.2 5.2 Source: Bloomberg Global Global markets ended on a mixed note on Monday. US indices closed higher in broad based gains, supported by weakness in dollar. Consumer Discretionary sector led its peer indices, buoyed by gains in Wynn Resorts (+6.8%) and Amazon (+3.7%). US factory data showing a rise in export orders and fading inventory overhang also lent to the optimism. European markets finished marginally lower, with broad based Stoxx 600 down 0.1%, dragged by weak performing Italian banks and decline in oil prices. Germany’s index bucked the trend closing 0.8% higher following an upbeat manufacturing survey report. French benchmark also gained 0.3%, supported by Auto stocks, which got a boost from data showing a 7.1% YoY rise in new car registrations during Apr-16. Japan’s Nikkei, however, fell 3.1% as the market reopened from a holiday, hit by a recent appreciation of the yen and continued disappointment over the Bank of Japan’s decision to leave monetary policy unchanged. GCC Most major Gulf indices closed in red on Monday, tracking a 4.8% plunge in Brent oil. Oil fell following OPEC data showing continued rise in production. Saudi Arabia's index slipped 0.6%, dragged by weakness in Petrochemical sector. Petchem major, SABIC closed 1.2% in red. Dubai’s index plunged 1.8%, after Emaar Properties closed 2.1% lower on disappointing earnings. Abu Dhabi's index lost 0.8% led by Banking stocks after last week's disappointing earnings in the sector. Qatar QE index edged down 0.9%, in line with its peer group after oil prices pulled back. Stronger selling, especially in the Real Estate and Industrials stocks dragged the broader index. Most of the sectors ended in red, with Real Estate (-2.1%), Industrials (-1.3%), Banks and Financial Services (0.6%) and Transport (-0.2%). Out of the 44 companies listed, 39 exchanged hands, of which 10 advanced, 26 declined and 3 stayed unchanged QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%) Value Traded (USD mn) Qatar All share 13.4 1.3 4.2 68.0 10,400 DSM 20 13.7 1.2 4.3 43.5 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.5 1.6 3.8 1,552.6 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.7 1.5 5.6 45.0 8,900 UAE (DFM) 11.4 1.3 4.2 107.5 Kuwait (KSE) 17.3 1.0 4.8 29.8 Oman (MSM) 12.1 1.3 4.4 14.8 Bahrain (BAX) 9.2 0.6 4.9 0.5 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Dlala Holding MERS National Leasing QGMD Qatar Islamic Bank Top Losers Islamic Holding Group Ezdan Holding Group Aamal Co Gulf Intl Services UDC Source: Bloomberg; Close Price 22.0 218.0 18.9 12.7 99.6 2.0 8.0 0.7 0.3 1.1 10.0 3.8 3.8 2.5 1.1 19.0 (0.9) 34.0 (7.3) (6.7) 66.0 18.3 13.3 34.2 19.0 (2.3) (0.5) (0.3) (0.6) (0.3) (3.4) (2.7) (2.3) (1.6) (1.6) (16.1) 15.0 (4.7) (33.6) (8.4) Note: Prices are (22.0) (13.5) (7.4) (10.9) (1.9) 703.4 NA 46.1 26.4 864.6 NA 137.5 NA 76.9 11.6 (35.6) 118.1 107.7 7.8 1,103.3 27.7 (17.7) 292.2 13.2 (61.6) 200.5 12.1 (17.5) 872.8 9.8 in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 10,900 8,400 4/Feb 10,092.1 20.0 10.0 0.0 18/Feb 3/Mar 17/Mar Index Volume (mn) 31/Mar 14/Apr 28/Apr Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,711.1 6,571.5 3,110.9 4,325.3 2,531.0 1,160.4 2,535.8 1D Change (%) (0.6) 0.1 (1.3) 0.2 (2.1) 0.6 (0.2) Buy (%) 49.5 14.5 64.0 15.6 20.4 36.0 Sell (%) 50.6 8.8 59.4 15.4 25.2 40.6 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 3 , 2016 from the private sector to help it to achieve its aim of doubling visitor numbers by 2040, according to the Tourism Ministry Official. The country wants to grow the contribution of travel and tourism to more than 6% of annual GDP, it is currently estimated to account for around 2.5%. (Source: Arabian Business) GLOBAL NEWS  Growth in US manufacturing activity slowed by more than expected in the month of April-16 mainly due to a slowdown in the pace of growth in new orders. The purchasing managers’ index dipped to 50.8 in April-16 from 51.8 in March-16. (Source: Nasdaq)  Eurozone manufacturing growth improved marginally in April-16, according to Markit Economics. The factory PMI rose to 51.7 in April16 from 51.6 in March-16, and was slightly better than an earlier flash estimate of 51.5. (Source: Reuters)  Demand for German plant and machinery grew strongly in March-16, driven by a surge in foreign orders. Engineering orders grew rose 18% YoY in March-16, primarily on strong foreign demand. (Source: RTT)  Japan's Markit/ Nikkei Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in April-16 from 49.1 in March-16. Production fell in April-16 at the steepest pace since April 2014, led by the fastest decline in new orders in over three years. (Source: RTT)   India's manufacturing growth moderated notably in April-16, as new business inflows were broadly unchanged, according to Markit Economics. The Nikkei Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.5 in April-16 from 52.4 in March-16. (Source: RTT) Turkish manufacturing PMI fell from 49.2 in March-16 to 48.9 in April-16, to its lowest rate in seven months, driven by declines in output, new orders and exports, which suggested deteriorating business conditions. (Source: Business Recorder)  Oman Islamic banking entities provided financing to the extent of OMR 1.85bn by end of February-16, compared to OMR1.10 bn a year ago. Total deposits held with Islamic banks and windows also registered a significant increase to OMR 1.59bn in February-16 from OMR 0.70bn outstanding in February-15. (Source: Times of Oman)  Oman has planned to build a major oil storage terminal on its southeastern coast, spending between USD 300mn and USD 400mn on the first phase, Minister of Oil and Gas said. It will be built by a subsidiary of state-owned Oman Oil Company at Ras Markaz, about 70 kilometres from Duqm. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwaiti MP has proposed to introduce a 5% tax on expat remittances, which he said will provide increased revenue for the state. Under the proposal, expatriates will pay 2% on money transfers less than USD 332, 4% on transfers between USD 332 and USD 1,660, and 5% exceeding the USD 1,600. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwaiti telecom firm Zain has agreed to buy Abu Dhabi-listed Etisalat's 92.3% stake in Sudanese fixed line operator Canar for KWD 349.6mn (USD 95.2mn). The deal would strengthen Zain's grip on Sudan's telecom sector. It is subject to approval from the Sudanese authorities. (Source: Arabian Business)  Commercial Bank International reported Q1-16 net profit of AED36.5 mn. Net loans and advances increased by AED 703mn, or 6% to AED 12,209mn as compared to AED 11,506mn in December-15. Customer deposits increased by 6% QoQ to AED 11,782mn from AED 11,106mn. (Source: CPI Financial) GCC NEWS  Fuel prices in the UAE to rise by about 10% from 1st May-16, according to the Ministry of Energy. Diesel price will also increase from AED 1.56 to AED 1.60. (Source: Arabian Business)  Wall Street Exchange, a UAE-based money exchange service provider and a unit of Emirates Post Group, has reported a 10% growth in its remittance business for 2015. The company said that the top five expatriate nationalities in the UAE remitting money were Indians, Bangladeshis, Filipinos, Pakistanis and Sri Lankans. (Source: Arabian Business)   Italy's Alitalia, in which Abu Dhabi-based carrier Etihad Airways bought a 49% stake, is planning buy a 49% stake in Air Malta to boost its services to customers and accelerate consolidation in the aviation industry. (Source: Arabian Business) Dubai's DP World reported 2.4% rise in gross container volumes in Q1-16. Gross volumes totaled 15.5mn 20-foot equivalent units in the opening three months of 2016. Growth was largely driven by the company's terminals in Europe and the Indian subcontinent. (Source: Arabian Business)   Dubai's Emaar Properties reported an increase of 17% in Q1-16 net profit of AED 1.21bn (USD 330mn) compared with a profit of AED 1.03bn in Q1-15. The company generated revenue of AED 1.97bn in Q1-16, up 32% YoY. (Source: Arabian Business) Dubai's Jumeirah Group has been appointed by Turkey’s Kuzu Group to operate a mixed-use development in the Ataköy district of Istanbul. The USD 450mn Sea Pearl development, which is expected to open in 2019, will include a luxury 202-room Jumeirah hotel and 62 private residences managed under the Jumeirah brand. (Source: QATAR NEWS  Qatar’s population increased 9% YoY to 2,559,267 as of 30th April-16, according to Ministry of Development. The population increased 1.27% MoM as compared to March-16. (Source: Doha news)  With hyper-connectivity and e-commerce, Qatar's business-tobusiness (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) markets are set to grow from USD 2.3bn in 2014 to USD 4.3bn in 2019, according to the Ministry of Transport and Communications. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar's Central Bank will offer QAR 2bn (USD 550mn) of Treasury bills in an auction first week of May-16, according to an invitation sent to banks. The offer comprises QAR 1bn of three-month bills, QAR 500mn of six-month bills and QAR 500mn of nine-month bills. (Source: Zawya)  (Source: The Peninsula)  Barwa Real Estate Company has announced that it would invest over QAR 15bn (USD 4.12bn) in various new projects including on building over 12,000 housing units aimed at meeting the growing demand for affordable accommodations across the country. (Source: Zawya)  Barwa Real Estate Group and Economic Zones Company (Manateq) will sign an agreement for a warehousing project, which consists of a 253,000sqm, as part of plans to diversify investments and increase Barwa's presence in the local market, Group CEO stated. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar National Bank has informed about a massive data leak that affected its customers. The bank has released a statement on 1 May16, that shows it has taken steps to secure its systems after detecting “abnormal activity” and also noted that the attack only targeted a portion of Qatar based customers. (Source: Zawya) Arabian Business)  Bank of Sharjah has registered a drop of 5% in Q1-16 net profit to AED 81mn (USD 22.1mn) from AED 85mn (USD 23mn) in Q1-15. Customers’ deposits reached AED 19,303mn, an increase of 3% to AED 18,746mn over the corresponding period 31st March-15. (Source: Gulf News)  Omani government is seeking an investment of USD 28bn or more About 1.3 mn expatriate workers have benefitted from the wage protection system in Qatar, which makes it mandatory on employers to transfer workers’ salaries on time to their bank accounts, Minister of Administrative Development, Labour and Social Affairs stated. 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 3 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1564 USD/QAR 3.6406 106.4100 EUR/QAR 4.2100 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4703 JPY/QAR 0.0342 USD/CHF 0.9544 GBP/QAR 5.3528 USD/CAD 1.2530 CHF/QAR 3.8145 AUD/USD 0.7667 CAD/QAR 2.9055 NZD/USD 0.7020 AUD/QAR 2.7912 USD/INR 65.9538 INR/QAR 0.0552 USD/TRY 2.8042 TRY/QAR 1.2983 USD/ZAR 14.2710 ZAR/QAR 0.2551 USD/BRL 3.5017 BRL/QAR 1.0397 FX Commentary The US dollar fell against a basket of major currencies as solid German manufacturing data helped push the EUR higher. Lower trading was witnessed with several Asian and European markets were closed due to public holidays including those in the UK, Ireland, Greece, Russia and China. CAD rose modestly and ended the North American trading session slightly stronger at C$1.2536 against the greenback as the benefit from a broadly weaker USD was offset by a drop in oil prices, which have been a major driver for the commodity-sensitive CAD. BRL weakened almost 1.5%, hurt by a drop in global commodities prices and heavy intervention by Brazil’s Central Bank aimed at curbing gains in the currency, which recently hit eight-month highs. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year 0.38 0.41 0.44 0.64 1.23 (0.39) (0.36) (0.34) (0.25) (0.01) QAIBOR 1.13 1.17 1.27 1.38 1.72 SAIBOR NA NA 1.75 2.05 2.25 EIBOR 0.29 0.38 0.64 1.06 1.62 BMIBOR 0.43 0.63 0.93 1.33 1.80 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.15% 5.0% 2.11% 2.5% 2.43% 2.43% 1.54% 1.83% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 0.97% 2.71% 0.63% 0.0% 1.21% 5 Yrs 2 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 19.7 2.4 Turkey 239.7 1.2 UK 35.9 20.4 Brazil 337.4 (66.0) Germany 16.8 3.6 Egypt 484.8 94.3 France 41.7 12.6 Abu Dhabi 94.4 19.4 118.2 15.3 Bahrain 360.6 31.6 1.97% 1.66% 2.0% 2.23% 2.26% 0.93% 1.0% 0.86% 2.66% 1.76% 1.51% 1.30% Italy Greece 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,241.7 149.3 Dubai 213.1 15.6 Russia 244.7 (12.5) Qatar 98.5 23.5 Japan 37.5 (6.7) Saudi Arabia 155.6 2.1 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey 14:00 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Apr 51.2 Prior 51 14:30 EC PPI MoM Mar 0.00% (0.70%) 14:30 EC PPI YoY Mar (4.30%) (4.20%) 19:15 US ISM New York 19:30 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 11:00 Saudi Arabia 11:00 UAE Apr -- 50.4 May 46.5 46.3 Emirates NBD Saudi Arabia PMI Apr -- 54.5 Emirates NBD UAE PMI Apr -- 54.5 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 2.0 (6.9) (46.6) Aluminium Bahrain Bsc 156.5 (24.3) (11.3) 4.2 (88.6) (126.9) Arkan Building Materials Co 212.3 (3.6) 0.8 30.7 0.7 52.8 United Real Estate Company Source: Bloomberg QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE May 3 , 2016 Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 7.9 0.0 8.1 1.6 5.9 5.2 2.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.3 6.4 2.0 5.2 3.6 5.3 4.3 4.3 4.8 0.0 8.8 4.3 4.7 4.9 7.0 2.9 4.8 5.7 3.5 3.6 2.4 7.7 3.8 4.4 3.9 4.9 2.9 2.8 6.4 3.1 6.6 2.7 1.9 7.8 3.9 3.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.5 1.9 5.3 5.6 4.9 3.8 P/B Ratio (x) 1.9 0.9 2.1 1.1 2.8 1.1 2.3 0.9 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.4 1.7 2.2 1.4 0.8 3.9 0.8 2.0 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.9 3.3 2.8 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.2 1.0 2.8 0.7 3.1 1.7 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.7 1.2 1.3 N/A (‫)غ‬ 1.8 2.7 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.7 P/E Ratio (x) 12.9 9.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.3 (H) (‫)م‬ 9.7 12.1 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 11.4 12.0 10.5 27.5 10.9 18.2 24.9 16.3 11.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 11.2 14.5 7.0 13.1 13.7 12.3 15.0 8.2 21.1 15.3 25.1 10.0 11.3 15.2 19.8 9.5 15.0 4.7 13.2 10.5 28.8 28.9 14.0 10.0 24.0 11.7 N/A (‫)غ‬ 15.7 19.5 13.0 9.5 11.9 13.3 EPS (QR) 3.4 3.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.1 0.5 1.8 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ N/A (‫)غ‬ 8.7 5.3 13.6 0.4 5.9 5.2 8.4 2.1 13.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.3 12.1 6.4 1.0 2.8 6.9 10.8 0.9 13.7 2.1 3.9 7.8 3.1 1.3 2.2 5.3 10.3 4.7 5.7 1.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 0.9 7.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.1 3.3 1.8 9.5 3.1 3.3 BV/Share (QR) 23.2 43.4 9.4 34.0 24.5 15.9 15.0 20.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 54.2 34.1 70.9 10.0 36.1 34.4 62.4 20.4 71.0 8.8 15.0 15.9 106.6 40.7 12.0 20.6 51.7 50.5 10.8 62.4 18.8 29.2 46.3 23.4 21.5 21.0 27.8 70.7 20.0 36.0 44.7 11.6 12.8 29.8 17.2 69.5 N/A (‫)غ‬ 19.1 23.3 13.9 114.2 30.3 25.9 Stock Price (QR) 43.4 38.0 20.0 36.9 68.3 17.1 33.9 18.2 14.1 98.5 62.9 143.5 11.6 93.8 210.0 35.1 157.9 12.4 11.4 62.8 85.0 13.7 34.8 103.9 88.0 19.9 208.2 53.3 39.0 87.9 25.6 20.5 79.0 48.9 62.3 33.6 18.8 14.4 19.3 91.0 11.9 63.5 23.2 90.0 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the inf ormation provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4