GCC Daily Market Update 4 April 2016

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 4 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,072.8 17,792.8 4,532.1 6,146.1 9,794.6 4,322.2 82,359.4 16,164.2 20,498.9 3,009.5 25,269.6 13.0 107.7 48.4 (28.9) (170.9) (62.8) (908.6) (594.5) (277.8) 5.6 (72.2) 0.6 0.6 1.1 (0.5) (1.7) (1.4) (1.1) (3.6) (1.3) 0.2 (0.3) 0.6 0.6 1.1 (0.5) (1.7) (1.4) (1.1) (3.5) (1.3) 0.2 (0.3) 1.4 2.1 (1.3) (1.5) (8.8) (6.8) 14.8 (15.1) (6.5) (15.0) (3.2) 10,252.0 6,126.1 4,360.2 3,303.2 5,207.9 5,488.9 1,126.3 1,488.8 2,811.6 (124.2) (97.0) (30.2) (52.3) (20.8) 21.5 (4.8) 0.4 (0.1) (1.2) (1.6) (0.7) (1.6) (0.4) 0.4 (0.4) 0.0 0.0 (1.2) (1.6) (0.7) (1.6) (0.4) 0.4 (0.4) 0.0 (0.2) (1.7) (11.4) 1.2 4.8 (7.3) 1.5 (7.4) 2.9 0.6 38.7 36.8 2.0 1,222.2 216.3 (0.9) (1.6) (0.0) (12.0) (2.0) (2.4) (4.0) (0.2) (1.0) (0.9) (3.1) (5.0) 1.5 (1.0) (0.9) 2.9 (1.7) (14.9) 15.3 1.3 Source: Bloomberg Global Major global markets ended in red on Friday, however the US markets bucked the trend, following encouraging readings on the US economy. Nonfarm payrolls rose in line with expectations, while US manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in March since last summer. Some of the only decliners in the S&P 500 were shares of Energy companies, which fell 1.4%, tracking fall in oil prices. Oil prices fell sharply after the deputy crown prince placed the onus of reducing oil output on other countries. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.3% following a downbeat session in Asia. Asian markets were majorly down, with Japan’s benchmark ending 3.6% lower after the Bank of Japan survey showed business confidence falling to its lowest in three years, despite aggressive easing measures by the country's Central Bank. China’s index edged up 0.2% after two gauges of Chinese manufacturing activity showed a March pickup, beating market expectations. GCC GCC markets retreated on Sunday following a drop in Brent crude oil prices. Saudi Arabia’s index fell 1.6%, mainly dragged by Petrochemical sector which slipped 2.2%. Uncertainty over execution of economic policy, which attempts to shift kingdom’s reliance from oil income to investment income by creating the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund also had a negative impact on the market. The insurance sector, favored by speculative day traders, tumbled 3.9%. Dubai's index fell 1.6% in modest volume, while Abu Dhabi’s benchmark edged down 0.7%, led lower by Energy-related stocks. Qatar QE index retreated 1.2%, in line with its gulf peers, as oil prices receded on Friday, following statements of Saudi Arabia’s deputy crown prince. A marginally higher net selling by domestic institutions and a substantially lower buying interests from foreign institutions’ hastened the overall bearish run. Most sectors ended in red, with selling pressure majorly witnessed in the Transport, Banking and Real Estate counters. Out of the 41 companies traded, 8 advanced, 31 declined and 2 stayed unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 12.4 1.6 4.1 79.0 10,400 DSM 20 12.4 1.6 4.2 39.1 9,900 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 14.1 1.4 4.2 982.8 9,400 UAE (ADX) 11.2 1.4 5.6 14.8 8,900 UAE (DFM) 11.3 1.2 3.7 59.5 Kuwait (KSE) 15.2 1.0 4.8 37.8 8,400 6/Jan Oman (MSM) 12.5 1.2 4.7 4.9 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 8.6 0.6 4.9 0.5 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatari Investors Group Medicare Group Widam Food Co Ooredoo Qsc Dlala Holding Top Losers QCFS Al Ahli Bank Commercial Bank Qsc QGMD Gulf Warehousing Co Close Price 65.3 113.9 56.5 95.0 19.4 5.9 5.9 2.3 2.0 0.4 9.9 5.5 4.2 2.2 1.9 73.2 (4.5) 7.0 26.7 4.8 62.0 (19.3) (2.8) (4.0) (34.0) 741.6 57.1 381.7 212.4 266.1 32.2 17.8 14.7 14.4 NA 32.0 46.0 40.4 12.3 57.2 (2.2) (2.0) (1.3) (0.4) (1.5) (6.3) (4.2) (3.0) (2.9) (2.6) (5.9) 4.9 (12.0) (10.3) 0.5 (28.2) (1.6) (28.2) 11.6 2.1 0.3 1.9 58.2 186.9 213.8 14.0 13.6 10.6 NA 15.7 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 10,900 25.0 10,252.0 0.0 20/Jan 3/Feb 17/Feb Index Volume (mn) 2/Mar 16/Mar 30/Mar Index Value Closing Level 2,753.6 6,642.9 3,208.8 4,447.1 2,491.6 1,198.1 2,514.3 1D Change (%) (1.4) 0.6 (0.3) (0.7) (1.3) 1.3 (1.7) Buy (%) 48.6 22.3 70.9 16.6 12.5 29.1 Sell (%) 48.2 27.9 76.1 19.7 4.2 23.9 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 4 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS  Dubai-based Majid Al Futtaim has announced that it has signed EGP 2.5bn (USD 281.6mn) loan deal for its latest project in Egypt. The agreement was signed with a consortium involving Arab Bank, Bank Audi, Alex Bank, National Bank of Abu Dhabi, Emirates NBD, Mashreq and National Bank of Kuwait. (Source: Arabian Business)  US construction spending fell 0.5% to an annual rate of USD 1.14tn in February-16 after jumping 2.1% to a revised USD 1.15tn in January-16. Spending on public construction registered a decline of 1.7% to an annual rate of USD 297.8bn. (Source: RTT News)   UK manufacturing growth, as gauged by Markit/CIPS PMI rose marginally to 51.0 in March-16 improved from 50.8 in February-16. The marginal increase was due to improved inflows of new business. Dubai Islamic Bank has announced that it has awarded an AED 687mn (USD 187mn) contract to Engineering Contracting Company to build a new residential community in the Emirate. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabian authorities plan to issue a SAR 100,000 (USD 26,700) fine to any company that subtracts weekends from employees’ annual leave. (Source: Arabian Business)  Saudi Arabia plans to create a USD 2tn mega fund for post-oil era, cited by Saudi Deputy Crown Prince. The plan entails the sale of shares in Aramco’s parent company and transform the oil giant into an industrial conglomerate. (Source: Arabian Business)  Oman’s commercial banks have achieved a growth of 8.8% YoY to OMR 18.4bn in total credit by the end of January-16. The incremental credit growth of all banks in absolute terms stood at OMR 1,494.9mn. Total deposits of Omani banks rose only by 2.2% (OMR 384.8mn) to OMR 17.82bn by end of January-16. (Source: Times of Oman) (Source: RTT News)   Italy's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in three months in March-16. The Markit/ADACI Italy Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.5 in March from 52.2 in February-16. (Source: RTT News) China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in March, returning to growth for the first time since July. The growth was witnessed in the output and new order categories, which majorly benefited from the government stimulus. (Source: RTT News)  China's Caixin manufacturing PMI, a gauge of manufacturing activities in smaller and mid-sized companies, rose to 49.7 in March-16 from 48.0 in February-16. (Source: BD live)  Japan’s Markit/ Nikkei Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.1 in March-16, depicting a contraction for the first time in 11 months. The index was majorly dragged by a fall in new export orders. (Source: RTT News)  Oman’s industrial sector received OMR 431mn investments in 2015, said Secretary of the Industrial Register. Total 162 new industrial units have registered in Oman. (Source: Times Of Oman)  Japan's monetary base increased by 27% YoY to a record JPY 375.7tn at the end of March-16 as Bank of Japan continued to provide more liquidity to bolster inflation. (Source: RTT News)   Turkey's manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in March-16 for the first time since October-15. The headline Istanbul Chamber of Industry Turkey Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.2 from 50.3 in February-16. (Source: RTT News) Employment in Bahrain's financial services industry grew by 2.8% to 13,877 people employed in 2015 compared to 13,496 in 2014, mainly due to higher employment in the non-bank financial sector comprising insurance firms, money changers, financing companies, and investment business firms, according to Central Bank. (Source: Arabian Business)  Bahrain's real GDP growth rose to 2.8% YoY in Q4-15. The growth represented a rise from 2.4% in Q3-15, according the Central Informatics Organization. Annually, GDP in Bahrain expanded 2.9% in 2015 after 4.5% in 2014. (Source: Arabian Business)  Kuwait's Jazeera Airways' major shareholder has confirmed that they have no plans to sell their shareholding in the near future. (Source: GCC NEWS  The GCC region witnessed a 14% YoY increase in the total number of closed M&A transactions during Q4-15. The top reported deal value was USD 3.2bn in Q4-15. UAE had the highest number of closed transactions among its GCC counterparts throughout Q4-15. (Source: The Peninsula)  The Prime Minister of UAE has revealed that the government plans to develop 17 new projects worth AED 1.5bn (USD 408mn) during 20162017 period in the Eastern region. The broad plan includes residential support programmes, building new residential complexes, roads, schools, health centres and government buildings. (Source: Trade Arabia) QATAR NEWS Qatar-based banks' total domestic private sector deposits has dropped about QAR 21.2bn to QAR 327bn in February-16. Total domestic loans and credit facilities provided by banks to the local private sector increased QAR 3bn to reach QAR 412.6bn, as per a reading of the banks' consolidated balance sheet. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar’s population was over 2.5mn at the end of March-16, declining by 0.7% MoM but witnessing a yearly growth of 7.7%, according to the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. (Source: Zawya) Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. (TAQA) has slashed its proposed capital expenditure for 2016. The company had reduced 2015 capex by 52% and would cut 2016 spending by 42% to approximately AED 1.8bn (USD 490mn). (Source: Arabian Business) Qatar’s budget for 2016 foresees the first deficit in 15 years at 4.8% of GDP. The budgeted expenditures total QAR 202.5bn, which represents a 7.3% cut from the last full-year budget, according to Samba Financial Group. (Source: Gulf Times). (Source: Gulf Times)  With Qatar announcing to fill-in its deficit gap through the issuance of debt, the country's debt market is expected to deepen through to 2019, according to Samba Financial Group. (Source: Zawya)  Qatar signed eight new deals worth QAR 1.3bn, bringing the total value of deals signed during the event to QAR 32.6bn at the largest edition of the Doha International Maritime Defense Exhibition and Conference. (Source: Zawya) Dubai’s non-oil foreign trade fell marginally to AED 1.28tn (USD 349.3bn) in 2015 from AED 1.33tn in the previous year. Crown Prince of Dubai and Chairman of Dubai Executive Council announced that Dubai recorded AED 796 bn of imports, AED 132bn of exports, and AED 355bn of re-exports last year. (Source: Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi based Senaat General Holding Corporation’s revenues for the full year ending December-2015 increased 5% to AED 14.0bn. EBITDA declined to AED 2bn in 2015 from AED 2.1bn a year ago. (Source:  Kuwait's National Real Estate Company has announced a 47.2% YoY rise in 2015 net profit to KWD 15.4mn (USD 51.5mn). The company's rental income in Kuwait, across its commercial and retail portfolios, grew by 4.6% to USD 34.4mn (KWD 10.4mn). (Source: Arabian Business)    Arabian Business)  Abu Dhabi’s investment fund Mubadala posted a rise in 2015 net profit of 12.4% to AED 1.16bn (USD 315.8mn) from AED 1.0bn in 2014. The group’s full-year revenue rose to AED 34.1bn in 2015 from AED 32.7bn the year before, mainly due to a stronger performance of its real estate, health care, information technology and semiconductor assets. (Source: Arabian Business) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 4 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.1421 USD/QAR 3.6416 111.6900 EUR/QAR 4.1591 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.4257 JPY/QAR 0.0326 USD/CHF 0.9580 GBP/QAR 5.1918 USD/CAD 1.3011 CHF/QAR 3.8013 AUD/USD 0.7677 CAD/QAR 2.7989 NZD/USD 0.6904 AUD/QAR 2.7957 USD/INR 65.7475 INR/QAR 0.0554 USD/TRY 2.8215 TRY/QAR 1.2907 USD/ZAR 14.7010 ZAR/QAR 0.2477 USD/BRL 3.5538 BRL/QAR 1.0247 FX Commentary USD remained broadly flat against a basket of major currencies on Friday last week. The traders remained skeptical about the US Fed rate hikes despite a stronger-than-expected US economic data due to Fed officials’ recent dovish comments. USD traded higher initially after the Labor Department data showed a jump in US non-farm payrolls and an increase in average hourly earnings in March. The better than expected US manufacturing report for March also had a positive impact on the greenback. The EUR traded lower against the USD earlier in the day following the release of the US jobs and manufacturing data but rebounded later to trade about 0.14% higher towards the close. The USD also lost ground against the JPY to hit its lowest level in one and half week. The dollar index was flat at 94.615 towards the end. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.38 0.40 0.44 0.63 1.21 (0.39) (0.36) (0.34) (0.25) (0.00) QAIBOR 1.13 1.21 1.32 1.45 1.79 SAIBOR NA NA 1.56 1.80 2.00 EIBOR 0.39 0.46 0.70 1.02 1.57 BMIBOR 0.43 0.63 0.93 1.33 1.73 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.00 1.31 1.69 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.20% 5.0% 2.09% 2.5% 2.55% 2.55% 1.43% 1.73% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 1.01% 2.58% 0.67% 0.0% 1.12% 5 Yrs 2 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 21.0 3.0 Turkey 259.7 (51.5) UK 39.7 23.7 Brazil 363.9 (72.2) Germany 18.3 3.8 Egypt 495.4 143.1 France 32.2 (0.8) Abu Dhabi 95.0 17.2 129.1 7.1 Bahrain 370.3 34.4 2.35% 2.0% 1.95% 1.70% 1.43% 2.12% 0.87% 1.0% 0.0% 0.74% 2 Yrs 1.64% 1.40% 1.19% Italy Greece 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change 1,167.6 (36.8) Dubai 216.2 13.1 Russia 291.7 (77.9) Qatar 99.0 21.1 Japan 45.5 (2.5) Saudi Arabia 155.0 30.1 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey 11:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Mar 54.1 Prior 54.2 12:00 EC PPI MoM Feb (0.50%) (1.00%) 12:00 EC Unemployment Rate Feb 10.30% 10.30% 17:00 US Factory Orders Feb (1.80%) 1.60% 17:00 US Durable Goods Orders Feb F (2.80%) (2.80%) 17:00 US Durables Ex Transportation Feb F (1.00%) (1.00%) 17:00 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Feb F -- (1.80%) 17:00 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Feb F -- (1.10%) 3:00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings YoY Feb 0.20% 0.00% 5:00 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Services Mar -- 51.2 5:00 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Composite Mar -- 51 Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Abu Dhabi National Energy Co Bank Of Sharjah Zad Holding Co Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) 4,677.0 (29.3) (3.1) (1,219.0) (66.4) QoQ (%) 193.0 313.6 (19.7) (23.3) (46.9) (405.0) (139.3) NA NA NA 33.6 (0.4) 1.0 Source: Bloomberg 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE April 4 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS (31st March 2016) Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mannai Corp. Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.0 7.1 0.0 8.1 1.4 5.7 4.9 3.0 4.1 5.6 2.1 4.8 3.5 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.9 0.0 7.5 5.1 N/A (‫)غ‬ 4.6 0.0 2.7 4.6 5.5 3.6 3.8 2.3 7.9 4.1 3.9 3.7 5.3 2.8 2.6 5.6 3.1 6.0 2.8 0.0 7.7 3.8 3.4 1.7 3.0 2.0 5.3 5.5 4.9 3.7 P/B Ratio (x) 2.0 0.8 2.0 1.0 7.2 1.1 2.2 0.8 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.2 1.7 2.9 3.0 1.6 2.1 1.5 0.9 3.6 N/A (‫)غ‬ 2.2 1.1 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.7 3.0 2.8 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.9 2.8 0.7 3.2 1.7 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.6 1.2 1.3 2.0 1.4 2.5 1.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 P/E Ratio (x) 14.1 9.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 6.9 72.8 10.1 12.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 12.6 13.8 10.5 21.7 11.0 17.3 25.8 15.0 11.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 13.5 13.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 14.4 13.3 8.5 14.7 7.8 22.3 14.7 26.9 10.8 11.3 14.6 15.8 8.6 15.6 4.9 13.1 10.7 4.7 29.1 13.8 10.0 12.9 13.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.8 19.3 13.3 9.6 12.0 12.7 EPS (QR) 3.4 4.4 (M) (‫)س‬ 5.3 1.1 1.7 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 8.3 5.2 13.4 0.6 6.2 6.4 8.1 2.3 13.7 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 3.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 5.9 1.0 4.3 7.4 11.7 0.9 13.6 2.0 3.6 7.8 3.2 1.7 2.2 5.1 10.6 5.5 5.8 7.9 0.6 1.0 2.0 1.6 6.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.2 1.8 9.6 3.1 3.5 BV/Share (QR) 23.8 53.0 9.3 35.8 10.9 16.6 16.1 21.0 56.8 36.5 72.8 10.5 40.6 38.9 69.3 21.7 76.0 9.0 14.7 14.8 N/A (‫)غ‬ 38.4 11.8 21.1 55.6 52.8 11.3 66.8 19.5 31.3 47.9 24.7 22.3 21.5 28.6 71.9 22.6 37.0 45.2 11.3 12.5 30.8 17.1 67.8 6.1 23.1 24.1 14.8 119.4 31.9 27.7 Stock Price (QR) 47.8 42.0 19.1 36.9 78.5 17.5 35.6 16.7 104.0 71.5 141.0 12.6 111.0 208.7 34.2 156.0 13.0 13.4 53.0 90.8 12.7 36.5 107.9 91.0 19.3 200.0 54.5 38.2 88.2 26.9 19.0 80.0 51.9 71.5 36.5 18.2 14.1 19.5 88.0 12.3 61.0 23.4 91.3 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4