GCC Weekly Wrap - 1 May

Transcription

1. WEEKLY WRAP May 01 , 2016 ECONOMIC UPDATE & NEWS Region Actual Prior Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate Apr-21st 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Initial Jobless Claims Apr-16th 265k 247k 253k Gold and Forex Reserve Apr-15th US Russia Event Period Survey -- 386.2b 387.9b Germany IFO Business Climate Apr 107.1 106.6 106.7 Italy Business Confidence Apr 102.5 102.7 102.2 UK GDP QoQ 1Q A 0.40% 0.40% 0.60% US FOMC Rate Decision Apr-27th 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% Japan Jobless Rate Mar 3.30% 3.20% 3.30% Japan Industrial Production MoM Mar P 2.80% 3.60% (5.20%) US Initial Jobless Claims Apr-23rd US GDP Annualized QoQ 1Q A Russia Gold and Forex Reserve Apr-22nd 259k 257k 248k 0.70% 0.50% 1.40% -- 388.6b 386.2b Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL NEWS    US GDP rose 0.5% in Q1-16 compared to the 1.4% increase in Q4-15 as consumer spending slowed, business investment plunged and exports declined further. (Source: RTT) The US Federal Reserve has made no change to its monetary policy, the benchmark interest rate is kept in a range of 0.25% to 0.50%, in light of disappointing recent economic data. (Source: RTT) The US Conference Board has said that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 94.2 in Apr-16 from a revised 96.1 in Mar-16. (Source: RTT)   New orders for US durable goods rose 0.8% in Mar-16 to USD 230.7bn as demand for automobiles, computers and electrical goods slumped, suggesting that the downturn in the factory sector was far from over. (Source: Market Watch) UK GDP grew 0.4% QoQ in Q1-16 compared to 0.6% QoQ in Q4-15, as the service sector alone made positive contribution to growth. (Source: UST 10yr Bond 2.00 1.90 1.80 1.70 1.60 Feb-16 Feb-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Mar-16 Apr-16   German-based IFO Institute's Business Climate Index fell to 106.6 points in Apr-16 from 106.7 Mar-16. Meanwhile, the current assessment index came in at 113.2 in Apr-16 from 113.8 in the earlier month. (Source: Bloomberg) Italy's overall Economic Sentiment Index climbed from 100.2 in Mar16 to 102.7 in Apr-16. (Source: LSE) Australia's CPI edged down 0.2% QoQ in Q1-16 due to six out of the eleven CPI groups recording a fall for the quarter. (Source: RTT news) GCC NEWS   Economic growth in GCC is forecasted to slow to 1.8% in 2016 due to tighter fiscal policy, weaker private sector confidence and lower liquidity in the banking system. (Source: Financial Times)   Qatar’s foreign merchandise trade surplus stood at QAR 6.3bn in Mar-16, a decline of 15.3% MoM. The total exports of goods increased by 0.4% MoM in Mar-16. (Source: The Peninsula)  Government and public sector deposits in Qatar banks increased by QAR 5.4bn in Mar-16 on MoM to QAR 209.4bn. The sector’s total loans increased about QAR 3.5bn to QAR 255.7bn. Qatar bank’s total assets increased by QR26.7bn on MoM to QR1.14trillion in Mar-16. (Source: The Peninsula)  The Peninsula) Qatar is working on setting up a specialized center to combat money laundering and terrorism financing in order to raise awareness and raise the level of operation of different stakeholders locally, regionally and globally. (Source: The Peninsula)  The overall PPI of Qatar's industrial sector for Feb-16 stood at 42.3 points, down 6% MoM. On YoY basis, the PPI of Feb-16 fell 37.6% due to fall in prices of crude petroleum and natural gas. (Source: The Peninsula)   Oman's conventional and Islamic financial institutions have achieved a robust 12.5% growth in credit at OMR 20.54bn for the 12-month period ending Feb-16. Total deposits rose moderately by 6.3% to OMR 19.42bn by Feb-16. (Source: Times of Oman) Qatar will allow its domestic gasoline and diesel prices to fluctuate in response to changes in global markets from May-16 as it seeks to reduce wastage of fuel and save money for the state budget. (Source: Arabian Business)  Ezdan Holding Group has launched its QAR 4.5bn Ezdan Oasis project in Al Wukair, a residential-cum-commercial development, more than 60% of the project is ready. (Source: Zawya)  Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services assigned its ‘BBB-‘ long-term corporate credit rating to Ezdan Holding Group with Stable Outlook. Also, Moody’s Investors Service assigned a Ba1 Corporate Family Rating and Ba1-PD Probability of Default Rating on the company with stable outlook. (Source: The Peninsula)  Fitch Ratings has affirmed International Bank of Qatar’s (IBQ) Longterm issuer default ratings at ‘A+’ with a stable outlook. The agency also upgraded IBQ’s Viability Rating to ‘bbb-’ from ‘bb+’. (Source: The Abu Dhabi is expected to post a wider budget deficit of AED 36.9bn in 2016 as compared to AED 32.4bn in 2015 due to low oil price. (Source: The total nominal value of Sukuk currently listed in Dubai has now reached USD 42.61bn, followed by the additional listing of USD 300mn sukuk on Nasdaq Dubai for the development of the private sector. (Source: Gulf News) Qatar is able to continue maintaining and developing gas projects under the current situation of energy prices, pointing out that it is in a good competitive position and is trusted by its customers. (Source:  Arab News)  IMF expects Bahrain’s fiscal deficit to touch 19.5% of GDP in 2016 and sees it remaining high over the medium term, weighed down by weak investor sentiment and fiscal adjustments with financial outflows. (Source: Gulf News) QATAR NEWS Abu Dhabi's inflation rate stood at 2.8% in Mar-16, with the largest contribution coming from housing, water and power & fuels prices. (Source: Khaleej Times)  Apr-16 Source: Bloomberg RTT)  1.80 Peninsula)  Qatar Airways is in advanced negotiations to buy a 49% stake in Italian airline Meridiana, but a deal is dependent on restructuring and job cuts. (Source: Arabian Business) 1
2. WEEKLY WRAP May 01 , 2016 EQUITY Index Price Index Price WTD %Δ 2,065.3 (1.3) 0.3 1.0 MSCI EM 840.2 (0.6) 0.4 5.8 17,773.6 (1.3) 0.5 2.0 S&P GCC 1,518.0 (0.6) 2.0 4.9 Nasdaq 4,341.3 (3.0) (3.2) (5.5) Dow Jones Islamic 2,836.5 (1.3) 0.7 1.3 FTSE 100 6,241.9 (1.1) 1.1 (0.0) KSA (TASI) 6,805.8 3.3 9.4 (1.5) DAX 30 10,039.0 (3.2) 0.7 (6.6) UAE (DFM) 3,491.9 (2.6) 4.1 10.8 CAC 40 4,429.0 (3.1) 1.0 (4.5) UAE (ADX) 4,543.5 (2.0) 3.5 5.5 BIST 100 85,327.8 (0.6) 2.5 19.0 Qatar (DSM) 10,186.2 (2.0) (1.8) (2.3) Nikkei S&P 500 DJIA WTD %Δ MTD %Δ YTD %Δ COMMENTARY MTD %Δ YTD %Δ 16,666.1 (5.2) (0.6) (12.4) Kuwait (KSE) 5,391.8 0.8 3.1 (4.0) Sh. Comp 2,938.3 (0.7) (2.2) (17.0) Bahrain (BAX) 1,110.5 (1.0) (1.8) (8.7) Hang Seng 21,067.1 (1.9) 1.4 (3.9) Oman (MSM) 5,942.7 2.2 8.7 9.9 Sensex 25,606.6 (0.9) 1.0 (2.0) Jordan (ASEGI) 2,094.7 (2.9) (2.7) (1.9) Source: Bloomberg GLOBAL INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) (0.6) (0.6) (0.7) (0.9) (1.1) (1.3) (1.3) (1.9) BIST 100 MSCI EM Sh. Comp Sensex FTSE 100 S&P 500 DJIA Hang Seng Jordan (ASEGI) Nasdaq CAC 40 DAX 30 Nikkei (2.9) (3.0) (3.1) (3.2) (5.2) (6.0) (5.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) 19.0 BIST 100 MSCI EM DJIA S&P 500 FTSE 100 (0.0) Jordan (ASEGI) (1.9) Sensex (2.0) Hang Seng (3.9) CAC 40 (4.5) Nasdaq (5.5) DAX 30 (6.6) Nikkei (12.4) Sh. Comp(17.0) (1.0) 0.0 Source: Bloomberg (20.0) (10.0) 5.8 2.0 1.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Source: Bloomberg GCC INDICES Weekly Performance (%) YTD Performance (%) KSA (TASI) Oman (MSM) S&P GCC KSA (TASI) (1.5) (2.3) Kuwait (KSE) (2.0) (4.0) Bahrain (BAX) (8.7) (2.6) (4.0) 1.3 Qatar (DSM) (2.0) Qatar (DSM) 4.9 Dow Jones Islamic (1.3) UAE (ADX) 5.5 S&P GCC (0.6) (1.0) Dow Jones Islamic 9.9 UAE (ADX) 0.8 Bahrain (BAX) 10.8 Oman (MSM) 2.2 Kuwait (KSE) UAE (DFM) UAE (DFM) 3.3 (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 Source: Bloomberg (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Global Global markets ended the week in red as poor economic data and weak corporate earnings for Q1-16, impacted investors sentiments. Also, Fed and Bank of Japan, both held policy meetings that announced no new measures. While the dollar softened notably and oil and precious metals soared. In the US, DJIA and S&P500 dropped 1.3%. Nasdaq slumped 3.0%, weighed down by Technology and Biotech stocks. European markets also ended the week lower, dragged by disappointing inflation and weak earnings reports. CAC 40 and DAX 30 fell 3.1% and 3.2%, respectively, while FTSE 100 ended the week 1.1% lower. In Asia, Nikkei tumbled 5.2% as the Bank of Japan declined to add additional monetary stimulus despite slumping inflation data. Strong yen further induced risk aversion. The Shanghai Composite ended 0.7% lower for the week as investors remained concerned over debt-fueled growth despite good economic report. GCC Gulf markets closed on a mixed note for the week. Saudi Arabia’s market outperformed its peers closing 3.3% higher on back on firmer oil prices and an economic overhaul announced by the crown price to diversify the kingdom away from oil. Dubai index was the worst performing Gulf bourse ending 2.6% lower, dragged by Real Estate sector which closed 2.8% as Arabtec and Union Properties plunged 5.7% and 3.6%, respectively. The Banking sector also shed 2.7% on the back of Dubai Islamic Bank’s 4.7% slide after disappointing financial results. Qatar QE index closed 2% in red for the week pressured by bearish bets by local retail investors and reduced buying interest of domestic institutions. Strong selling was majorly witnessed in Real Estate and Consumer goods counter. In terms of capitalization, heavier selloff was witnessed in micro and mid cap stocks. More than 81% of the scrips were in the red with major losers being Alijarah Holding, Ezdan, Ahli Bank, Aamal Company and Qatar Islamic Bank. Source: Bloomberg DSM INDEX Indicator Price Last Close 10,186.2 MAVG 50 10,204.8 10,000 MAVG 100 9,929.5 9,000 MAVG 200 10,671.1 6 Month High 11,221.6 6 Month Low 8,516.8 RSI (14 Days) 48.2 12,000 11,000 8,000 Nov-15 10,186.2 Dec-15 Index Jan-16 50 SMA 100 SMA Mar-16 200 SMA Apr-16 Source: Bloomberg 2
3. WEEKLY WRAP May 01 , 2016 RATES & CREDIT US Treasury (%) Qatar Treasury (%) 3.00 2.83 2.50 2.11 2.00 1.50 0.50 3.13 3.50 1.83 2.00 1.30 0.60 0.83 0.00 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs Current Last Year 7 Yrs 10 Yrs 30 Yrs Last Year Source: Bloomberg CDS Qatar Govt. Int. Bonds Price (BPS) WTD Δ (BPS) MTD Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) US 21.5 0.4 0.5 2.3 UK 34.6 (1.7) (5.0) 15.8 Germany 18.0 (0.6) (0.4) 5.5 France 38.9 0.8 6.5 12.9 Italy 126.0 (2.0) (2.0) Greece 1,241.7 121.4 Russia 245.5 Japan Turkey Maturity Price (USD) Z Spread (BPS) Yield (%) WTD Δ (USD) YTD Δ (USD) QGIB 2017 101.5 22.0 0.69 (0.0) (0.3) QGS 2018 101.4 41.8 1.15 NA 0.1 QGIB 2019 114.1 58.3 1.50 (0.3) (0.9) QGIB 2020 111.1 101.1 2.04 (0.5) 0.3 Qatari Diar 2020 110.9 110.6 2.27 NA (1.6) 29.3 QGIB 2022 111.0 110.5 2.38 0.1 1.3 99.1 159.7 QGS 2023 104.3 111.0 2.49 (0.3) 0.6 (8.5) (42.6) (61.8) QGIB 2030 164.1 201.1 3.78 (0.5) 6.1 36.0 (1.8) (10.3) (12.6) QGIB 2040 134.1 207.4 4.10 (0.5) 7.5 240.3 (1.7) (16.9) (36.8) QGIB 2042 125.1 206.4 4.12 (0.5) 7.6 Global Brazil 337.0 (21.0) (21.6) (167.1) Egypt 484.9 9.7 (13.7) 6.1 Abu Dhabi 93.9 3.7 1.9 1.3 Bahrain 360.5 (1.0) (2.4) (5.1) Dubai 213.0 (2.9) 3.0 (20.7) Qatar 98.0 7.1 5.7 5.4 Saudi Arabia 155.0 0.3 5.0 (0.8) 72.7 3.6 (0.4) 72.7 GCC Source: Bloomberg, QCB US Swap Rates Tenor International Credit Spreads iTraxx Europe 5 Yrs Current Source: Bloomberg 5 Years CDS 2 Yrs 30 Yrs 2.12 1.74 1.00 0.50 0.00 2.55 1.28 1.50 4.07 2.43 2.28 2.50 1.62 0.78 4.15 3.00 1.50 1.00 2.68 1.88 4.50 4.00 Price (%) Weekly Δ (BPS) YTD Δ (BPS) 3M LIBOR 0.637 0.001 0.024 6M LIBOR 0.905 (0.004) 0.059 12M LIBOR 1.230 (0.006) 0.052 2 years 0.919 (0.033) (0.260) 5 years 1.267 (0.045) (0.478) 10 years 1.727 (0.024) (0.461) 30 years 2.214 (0.024) (0.408) iTraxx Europe Crossover 309.5 14.9 2.7 309.5 Source: Bloomberg CDX North America IG 77.4 3.6 (1.8) 77.4 Commentary CDX North America HY 432.7 13.3 (3.7) 432.7 iTraxxSovX CEEMEA NA NA NA NA iTraxx Europe Senior Financial 71.8 7.6 (3.8) 71.8 iTraxx Europe Sub Financial 122.6 19.8 (5.5) 122.6 Treasury yields fell during the week as investors opted for safe havens, following a slew of disappointing US data. New home sales and permits came in lighter than expected, and March durable goods orders (excluding defense spending) were almost flat. The advance estimate of Q1-16 growth in US GDP came in at a soft 0.5% while initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 for the week. High yield bonds posted solid gains led by commodity related issuers. Municipal returns were marginally positive for the week, buoyed by strong demand. Source: Bloomberg 3
4. WEEKLY WRAP May 01 , 2016 COMMODITIES Commodities Price Commentary Brent (USD/bbl) 47.4 WTI Crude (USD/bbl) 45.9 Brent oil rallied 6.7%, buoyed by weakness in US Dollar and a sixth consecutive weekly fall in in US oil rigs. Dollar-denominated oil became more attractive for buyers of rival currencies as dollar plunged on dovish statements by Fed and strong gains in Yen. The rally was further buoyed by data released by Baker Hughes, which showed that the rigs fell by 11 last week to stand at 332. The gains were, however, capped by a report showing near record high production of oil by OPEC nations. Gold surged to its highest level since early-2015 as investors sought shelter in the safe-haven asset, amid a considerable sell-off on global equity markets and downbeat US consumer spending data. Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) 2.2 Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,290.5 Silver (USD/t oz.) 17.9 Copper (USD/lb) 227.9 Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) Brent Silver Gold WTI Crude Natural Gas Copper YTD Performance (%) Silver Brent WTI Crude Gold Copper Natural Gas (6.8) 6.7 5.3 5.0 5.0 1.8 0.6 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 29.4 27.1 24.0 21.7 6.7 (10.0) Source: Bloomberg 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Source: Bloomberg FX Currencies Price Currencies Price GBP/USD 1.4642 USD/INR 65.8300 EUR/USD 1.1481 USD/CNY 6.4780 CAD/USD 0.7965 USD/TRY 2.7955 AUD/USD 0.7603 USD/EGP 8.8724 NZD/USD 0.6977 USD/ZAR 14.2302 106.5000 USD/RUB 64.7671 USD/JPY Commentary USD closed the week lower against most of its trading partners following dovish statements from Fed Chair and the release of soft economic data. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in March rose by 0.8% on an annual basis, down slightly from February's annual gains of 1.0%, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment dropped to a 7-month low. The JPY staged a strong rally against USD gaining 5.1% for the week after the Bank of Japan held back from further stimulus, against market expectations for additional monetary easing. EUR also registered a 2.0% weekly gain, supported by higher than expected GDP data. Source: Bloomberg Weekly Performance (%) JPY RUB EUR TRY NZD GBP ZAR CAD CNY INR EGP AUD (1.4) (2.0) Source: Bloomberg YTD Performance (%) JPY RUB CAD ZAR EUR TRY AUD NZD CNY INR GBP EGP 5.1 2.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 13.1 12.7 10.2 8.8 5.4 4.4 4.4 2.1 0.3 (0.3) (0.8) (11.8) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Source: Bloomberg DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall Commercial Bank or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4