GCC Daily Market Update - 14 November

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 14 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,164.5 (3.0) 18,847.7 39.8 4,752.0 4.9 6,730.4 (97.6) 10,668.0 37.8 4,489.3 (41.7) 75,174.2 (1,186.2) 17,374.8 30.4 22,531.1 (308.0) 3,196.0 24.8 26,818.8 (698.9) (0.1) 0.2 0.1 (1.4) 0.4 (0.9) (1.6) 0.2 (1.4) 0.8 (2.5) 1.8 3.9 (1.0) (3.2) 0.0 (0.4) (4.3) (0.3) (1.8) 3.1 (4.0) 5.9 8.2 3.5 7.8 (0.7) (3.2) 4.8 (8.7) 2.8 (9.7) 2.7 9,871.7 6,663.3 4,235.7 3,232.9 5,481.1 5,417.0 1,162.3 1,484.4 2,869.2 (89.2) 135.3 (46.8) (41.1) 0.7 (0.7) 1.3 0.0 (0.1) (0.9) 2.1 (1.1) (1.3) 0.0 (0.0) 0.1 0.0 (0.0) (3.0) 10.8 (1.5) (3.0) 1.5 (1.2) 1.2 (0.8) (0.7) (5.3) (3.6) (1.7) 2.6 (2.4) 0.2 (4.4) 2.6 2.3 44.8 43.4 2.6 1,224.3 250.9 (1.1) (1.3) (0.0) (42.1) (4.2) (2.4) (2.8) (0.5) (3.3) (1.7) (7.4) (7.5) (11.6) (3.8) 16.9 20.0 17.0 14.5 15.5 20.7 Source: Bloomberg Global Global stocks ended on a mixed note on Friday. In US, S&P 500 underperformed its peers falling 0.1% as lower oil prices weighed on the Energy companies. Nasdaq rose 0.1% as large-cap technology shares rebounded from a slide. European stocks reversed gains to close lower, with Mining stocks leading the decline. FTSE 100 fell 1.4% dragged down by surge in the pound. DAX rose 0.4% after data released showed that the nation’s October inflation rose to a 4 year high. Hang Seng fell 1.4% as investors remained highly cautious ahead of GDP data release, which is expected to be disappointing. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.2% buoyed by Financial stocks after US Treasury yields climbed on the view that Trump's economic policies would push up inflation. GCC Gulf markets ended on a mixed note on Sunday. Saudi Arabia’s Index outperformed the region rising 2.1% on the back of gains in Banking stocks. Banking stocks continued their ascent, with lender Saudi Hollandi surging 6.7%. Etihad Etisalat (Mobily) surged 6.2% after the company announced it has been awarded SAR 219.5mn from rival Zain Saudi, following an arbitration ruling in a contract dispute between the two firms. Dubai's index fell 1.3% as Emaar Properties lost 3%. Abu Dhabi’s benchmark edged down 1.1% with First Gulf Bank and Etisalat falling 0.8% and 1.4% respectively. Qatar QE index closed in red on Sunday, tracking a fall in oil prices. Bearish bets by Gulf institutions and Qatari individuals were to some extent offset by increased buying interest from local retail investors and domestic institutions. The sell-off was strongly observed in Realty, Industrials and Insurance counters, with Transportation bucking the broader trend. Trade turnover and volumes were on the decline in the market, where Telecom, banking, Real estate and Insurance stocks together constituted about 82% of the total volumes. Out of 44 stocks listed, 40 exchanged hands, of which 5 gained, 31 declined and 4 remained unchanged. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.4 1.5 4.2 73.4 DSM 20 14.3 1.5 4.1 55.6 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 15.8 1.5 3.5 1,527.5 UAE (ADX) 10.9 1.3 5.8 94.4 UAE (DFM) 11.7 1.2 4.3 143.4 Kuwait (KSE) 18.9 1.0 4.3 57.1 Oman (MSM) 10.2 1.0 5.3 2.4 Source: Bloomberg Bahrain (BAX) 9.4 0.4 4.8 0.8 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar Navigation Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Zad Holding Co United Development Masraf Al Rayan Top Losers Qatari Investors Group Medicare Group Aamal Co Dlala Holding Islamic Holding Group Close Price 89.4 20.5 77.0 19.2 33.8 2.5 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.1 2.9 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 (5.9) (32.8) (9.2) (7.6) (10.1) (7.1) (33.9) (14.4) (15.2) (15.0) 4.5 5.2 0.7 29.3 205.2 11.3 17.7 9.4 12.4 12.0 55.2 61.1 13.1 20.7 55.9 (2.0) (1.7) (0.3) (0.5) (1.3) (3.5) (2.7) (2.5) (2.3) (2.3) 46.4 (48.8) (6.6) 12.1 (29.0) 30.7 (56.4) (0.2) 3.6 (32.8) 629.9 53.7 4.8 0.9 4.3 24.0 19.8 13.0 NA 199.6 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 17/Aug 30.0 20.0 9,871.7 10.0 0.0 31/Aug 14/Sep 28/Sep Index Volume (mn) 12/Oct 26/Oct 9/Nov Index Value Closing Level 2,757.3 5,660.3 3,002.9 4,368.2 2,211.0 1,158.5 2,419.6 1D Change (%) (0.3) (0.8) (1.6) (0.9) (1.8) (0.0) 0.5 Buy (%) 25.4 24.9 50.3 6.7 43.0 49.7 Sell (%) 16.3 50.3 66.6 5.8 27.6 33.4 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 14 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS   projects and general businesses. (Source: Tadawul stock exchange)  Saudi Airlines Catering Company (SACC) entered into a consortium agreement with Lagardere Travel Retail and Arabian Ground Handling Logistic Co. for operation and management of the duty free in King Fahad International Airport in Dammam. (Source: Tadawul stock exchange)  The average residential rental rates in Oman fell by 2.3% in Q3-2016 mainly due to the negative impact from the evolving demand dynamics which is stagnant across Oman’s residential and office market, according to Cluttons. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Total direct premiums paid to insurance companies in 2015 rose by 11.7% to OMR 442.8mn, compared to OMR 396.5mn in 2014. Vehicles insurance premiums stood at OMR 162.7mn, while premiums for life insurance amounted to OMR 53.0mn, according Oman’s National Centre for Statistical Information (NCSI). (Source: Mubasher)  Chinese banks extended CNY 651.3bn (USD 95.6bn) in net new CNY loans in October-16, below expectations and falling sharply from September-16, as policymakers pledged to prevent asset bubbles in the increasingly debt-fueled economy. The lending has been driven by robust mortgage growth due to boom in housing market. (Source: Reuters) S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Oman to negative from stable and affirmed the 'BBB-/A-3' long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings. The deterioration in outlook was due to a higher than anticipated fiscal deficit to GDP ratio, which is expected to deepen to 20%) in 2016. (Source: CPI financials)  Chinese government spending rose 10.0% YoY in the first 10 month for 2016 while revenue rose 5.9% YoY for the same period. The country has heavily relied on government spending to stabilize growth this year as private companies pull back on spending. (Source: Reuters) Bahrain based Eskan Bank said it has finalized the formal registration of its real estate investment trust (REIT) with the Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB). Subscriptions will open in Nov 22 for a two-week period with target distributable yield of 6.5% net of all costs, and a minimum subscription of BHD 500 mn (USD 1.32 bn). (Source: Trade Arabia)  Bank ABC’s (Arab Banking Corporation) Q3-2016 net profit increased by 2.1% YoY to USD 49mn, slightly higher than USD 48mn reported for the same period last year. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Aluminium Bahrain reported a 64.4% YoY Q3-2016 net profit to BHD 14.3mn largely on back of a solid operational performance, despite a relatively weak physical premium environment. (Source: Gulf Business)  Kuwait Food Co (Americana) reported 85.8% YoY increase in its Q32016 net profit, which stood at KWD 20.4mn, reflecting positive impact on its earnings due to an asset disposal. (Source: Zawya)  Agility a Kuwait based logistics company is looking to invest USD 1bn in the UAE over the next two years and is also considering publicprivate partnerships (PPP) in the country, according to the chief executive. (Source: The national) IMF said that its executive board approved the renewal of its USD 250.0bn crisis lending fund, aimed to provide supplementary resources to cope with an impairment of the international monetary system. The fund is renewed for another five-year period starting 17th Nov-16. (Source: Reuters) Federal Reserve Vice Chairman said that the central bank is getting closer to raising interest rates again as both the inflation and employment components of its mandate are within its target range. He however did not specify the date when the next move might occur. (Source: WSJ)  Bank of Japan Governor said that the Japanese economy is sustaining momentum towards hitting the central bank's 2% inflation target but risks are tilted to the downside due to uncertainty over the global economy. The governor’s optimistic view is due to rebound in exports and output, reflecting an expected improvement in overseas demand. (Source: Reuters)    Turkey’s current account deficit stood at USD 1.7bn in September-16 from a surplus of USD 167.0mn for the same period in 2015 mainly due to USD 686.0mn increase in deficit for goods item and USD 1.2bn decrease in the service surplus for the period. (Source: Hurriyet Daily) GCC NEWS  Consumer confidence in the UAE was the highest in the region at 108 points in Q3-2016, a one-point decrease from Q2-2016, while Saudi Arabia (KSA) posted confidence scores of 100 points in Q3-2016 down from 104 in Q2 2016, according to Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Index. (Source: Trade Arabia)  UAE government revenues from e-Dirham system during 9M-2016 stood at AED 5.8 bn (USD 1.58 bn), while the number of e-Dirham transactions rose by 20% YoY to reach 15 mn during the same period. QATAR NEWS  (Source: Trade Arabia)  Dubai-based billionaire Mohamed Alabbar and Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund are teaming up to launch a Middle East e-commerce platform, Noon.com, with initial contribution of USD 1bn to the project. (Source: Reuters)  Emirates NBD expects loan growth within its retail business to halve next year to around 5% as the market slows. (Source: Zawya)  Sharjah-based firm, Air Arabia announced Q3-2016 results where its net profit increased by 26.4% YoY to AED 297.0 mn compared to AED 235 mn in Q3-2015. (Source: Gulf Times)  The Saudi Economic and Development Affairs Council has agreed on shelving SAR 1tn (USD 266bn) worth of future projects as the Kingdom is reeling under a sharp oil price crunch. In addition, the council has decided to stop contracting on planned projects whose projected economic and development feasibility does not match their costs. Hurriyet Daily)  Abdullah A. M. Al-Khodari Sons announced the signing of the renewal of existing Islamic Facilities Agreement with Riyad Bank worth SAR 276.0 mn to provide bonding commitments and to fund capital requirements and working capital needs for the company specific Qatar Petroleum’s affiliate Ocean LNG has signed a long-term deal to provide Brazil-based CELSE-Centrais Elétricas de Sergipe with liquefied natural gas (LNG) from 2020. Under this deal, Qatar will ship 1.3 mn tonnes of LNG per year on an Ex-Ship basis, which will begin in 2020. (Source: Zawya)  The CEO of Qatar Development Bank (QDB) said that the bank has provided over QAR 6.0bn through its direct lending program benefiting more than 5,000 Qataris. QDB's Al Dameen programme, a partial guarantee scheme has also surpassed QAR 1.0bn mark. (Source: The Peninsula)  Qatar-based Abu Issa Holding has expanded its operations in Dubai with the opening of its first restaurant in the emirate. The restaurant has opened at Divan Patisserie at Dubai Mall. (Source: Arabian Business)  Stadiums for the 2022 FIFA World Cup Qatar will be built by making use of the green building practices, according to chairman of Abdullah Bin Hamad Al Attiyah International Foundation for Energy and Sustainable Development. (Source: Gulf Times) (Source: Trade Arabia)  Turkey and Qatar signed a MoU to enhance bilateral ties further, finalizing a number of previously agreed deals. The deputy PM of Turkey said that the proposed free trade agreement between two nations is greatly expected to boost bilateral trade volume. (Source: 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 14 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0885 USD/QAR 3.6409 106.6500 EUR/QAR 3.9631 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2626 JPY/QAR 0.0341 USD/CHF 0.9880 GBP/QAR 4.5970 USD/CAD 1.3542 CHF/QAR 3.6851 AUD/USD 0.7546 CAD/QAR 2.6886 NZD/USD 0.7130 AUD/QAR 2.7474 USD/INR 66.7462 INR/QAR 0.0545 USD/TRY 3.2488 TRY/QAR 1.1207 USD/ZAR 14.3352 ZAR/QAR 0.2540 USD/BRL 3.4023 BRL/QAR 1.0701 FX Commentary USD rose to a nine month high against a basket of major currencies on Friday, as investors bet that the administration of President-elect Donald Trump will implement large fiscal stimulus measures (infrastructure investment and tax cuts) which will boost inflation leading to faster pace of rate hike. The gains in currency were further supported by hawkish comment from Fed Vice Chairman and improvement in consumer sentiment index. CAD weakened to an eight-month low against USD as oil prices fell following data showing OPEC October output reaching record high. EUR fell to its lowest against the greenback since March-16 mainly due to strength in latter. The gains were however capped as Germany’s October inflation reached 2-year high. JPY fell amidst reduced demand for safe haven currency and fall in October producer prices. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.46 0.54 0.91 1.59 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.07) QAIBOR 1.17 1.29 1.47 1.73 2.17 SAIBOR NA NA 1.96 2.20 2.54 EIBOR 0.38 0.50 0.73 1.31 1.96 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.19 1.44 2.06 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.37% 4.0% 2.18% 2.0% 2.62% 2.62% 1.77% 2.13% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 2.98% 0.76% 1.38% 0.62% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.0 7.8 Turkey 289.7 23.2 UK 38.4 2.4 Brazil 301.8 (25.4) Germany 20.8 1.1 Egypt 468.6 (11.9) France 31.6 (7.8) Abu Dhabi 79.0 (17.5) Italy 151.7 25.3 Bahrain 370.7 12.8 Greece 934.7 (183.4) Dubai 156.5 (60.6) Russia 234.3 (19.2) Qatar 101.0 (3.3) Japan 33.5 (3.5) Saudi Arabia 147.0 (6.0) 2.0% 2.62% 1.88% 1.60% 2.44% 1.22% 2.06% 1.86% 1.67% 1.0% 0.0% 2.15% 0.94% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 07:30 Japan Industrial Production MoM Sep F -- 0.00% 07:30 Japan Industrial Production YoY Sep F -- 0.90% 07:30 Japan Capacity Utilization MoM Sep -- 2.60% 12:00 Italy CPI EU Harmonized YoY Oct F (0.10%) (0.10%) 13:00 Eurozone Industrial Production SA MoM Sep (1.00%) 1.60% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) United Gulf Bank 21.6 25.3 (22.9) 1.7 119.6 39.8 Waha Capital Pjsc 125.9 35.4 (19.6) 81.8 (30.6) (37.1) Ras Al Khaimah Ceramics 645.7 (17.5) (14.6) 11.4 (84.9) (79.3) Dubai Refreshments Company 263.4 (3.5) 13.5 35.2 (15.8) 25.7 Mezzan Holding Co Kscc Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) NA NA NA 3.1 (14.5) (34.9) 174.3 (5.5) 5.2 14.3 65.1 (12.1) Commercial Real Estate Co NA NA NA 3.0 3.4 51.3 Albaraka Banking Group NA NA NA 35.0 (3.8) (19.6) Amanat Holdings Pjsc NA NA NA 12.9 135.4 (9.7) Aluminium Bahrain Bsc Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 14 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 9.0 0.0 8.5 1.9 5.7 5.2 3.5 0.0 4.2 6.5 1.9 5.9 3.5 6.5 8.0 5.3 5.4 5.4 0.0 9.2 4.3 5.2 5.8 7.1 3.3 4.9 4.6 3.6 2.2 7.0 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.4 2.3 3.1 8.0 2.7 7.1 3.2 2.2 7.9 4.4 3.2 2.0 2.9 2.3 5.6 5.8 5.2 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.8 2.3 1.0 2.3 1.0 2.1 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.8 2.6 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.8 4.0 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 3.0 2.9 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.0 0.9 2.6 0.6 2.3 1.6 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 17.5 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.3 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.8 11.9 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.1 11.7 10.5 27.8 11.1 7.1 20.3 21.1 13.5 11.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.6 13.4 5.7 11.1 13.4 33.4 18.7 18.8 14.4 24.8 10.4 11.0 17.2 17.2 9.4 19.3 4.0 12.3 12.0 12.3 24.2 14.5 12.4 18.5 13.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 22.7 15.5 12.8 11.1 12.3 13.5 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 10.9 3.1 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 55.3 35.1 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 39.0 33.4 21.2 35.2 57.2 17.5 33.7 14.3 9.4 101.1 61.4 153.0 10.1 77.0 62.8 171.0 28.1 141.5 10.2 10.9 63.2 76.3 13.4 30.3 103.0 15.3 208.0 57.2 43.0 85.0 20.1 18.5 85.1 44.5 49.9 31.1 15.8 12.4 19.1 95.0 10.3 53.0 22.5 86.9 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4