GCC Daily Market Update - 29 november

Transcription

1. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 29 , 2016 GLOBAL MARKETS MARKET COMMENTARY Change Performance Value (%) MTD (%) YTD (%) Closing Level Indices Global S&P 500 Dow Jones Ind. Average Nasdaq FTSE 100 DAX 30 CAC 40 BIST 100 Nikkei Hang Seng Shanghai Composite BSE Sensex GCC QE Index Saudi Arabia (TASI) UAE (ADX) UAE (DFM) Kuwait (KSE) Oman (MSM) Bahrain (BAX) S&P GCC Dow Jones Islamic Commodity Brent (USD/bbl) WTI (USD/bbl) Natural Gas (USD/mmBTU) Gold Spot (USD/t oz.) Copper (USD/lb) 2,201.7 19,097.9 4,857.0 6,799.5 10,582.7 4,510.4 74,990.2 18,356.9 22,830.6 3,277.0 26,350.2 (11.6) (54.2) (13.0) (41.3) (116.6) (39.9) 626.8 (24.3) 107.1 15.1 33.8 (0.5) (0.3) (0.3) (0.6) (1.1) (0.9) 0.8 (0.1) 0.5 0.5 0.1 3.6 5.3 1.2 (2.2) (0.8) 0.0 (4.5) 5.3 (0.5) 5.7 (5.7) 7.7 9.6 5.7 8.9 (1.5) (2.7) 4.5 (3.6) 4.2 (7.4) 0.9 9,689.1 6,903.9 4,257.0 3,310.5 5,539.8 5,486.2 1,177.2 1,480.4 2,881.6 (45.1) 60.1 (41.4) (27.8) 4.8 (32.9) (19.3) (0.1) (9.0) (0.5) 0.9 (1.0) (0.8) 0.1 (0.6) (1.6) (0.0) (0.3) (4.8) 14.8 (1.0) (0.7) 2.6 0.1 2.5 (1.0) (0.3) (7.1) (0.1) (1.2) 5.1 (1.3) 1.5 (3.2) 2.1 3.0 48.2 47.1 3.2 1,190.8 265.7 1.0 1.0 0.1 12.4 (1.2) 2.1 2.2 4.8 1.1 (0.4) (0.6) 0.1 11.1 (6.5) 19.7 28.8 26.6 43.8 12.3 23.7 Source: Bloomberg Global Most global stocks retreated on Monday. The three major US indices ended in red weighed down by a pullback in the Financial and Consumer Discretionary sectors as investor started profit-booking post a massive post-election rally. European markets closed lower, with banks leading the fall on rising concerns about risks to their financial stability from the upcoming referendum in Italy. UK’s banks also fell ahead of the Bank of England’s stress results due on Wednesday. In Asia, Nikkei 225 fell 0.1% mainly due to strength in JPY, as investors sought safe haven with continued uncertainty over OPEC’s production deal. Hang Seng added 0.5% after news that the trading link connecting the Shenzhen and Hong Kong stock exchanges will open on 5th Dec-16, allowing foreign investors to invest in China’s fastest-growing companies in Hong Kong. GCC Most major gulf indices retreated on Monday, with Saudi Arabia bucking the broader trend on back of strength in second-tier stocks favored by local retail investor. Real Estate developer Jabal Omar gained 4.2% after it announced the end of contract with Saudi Binladin Group, settling its outstanding SAR 196mn debt to the group. In Dubai, the benchmark fell by 0.8% as Union Properties pulled back after a rally on Sunday. Abu Dhabi's index dropped 1.0% as Telecom blue chip Etisalat fell 1.4%. Kuwait’s index added 0.1%, showing little initial reaction to parliamentary elections held at the weekend. Qatar QE index closed 0.5% lower on stronger profit booking by foreign institutions. Half of the traded stocks closed in red as Investors expressed caution ahead of OPEC’s meet in Vienna on Wednesday to decide on production cut. Banks and Financial sector led losses, as the nation’s largest lender, QNB lost 1.1%. Trade turnover and volumes were on the increase in the market, where Telecom and Banking sectors together accounted for more than 71% of the total volume. QATAR MARKET OVERVIEW P/E (x) P/B (x) Qatar All share 13.2 1.5 4.2 40.0 DSM 20 14.0 1.5 4.2 30.6 Saudi Arabia (TASI) 16.4 1.6 3.4 1,393.4 UAE (ADX) 11.0 1.3 5.7 37.2 UAE (DFM) 10.8 1.2 4.2 189.1 Kuwait (KSE) 18.6 1.0 4.4 37.3 Oman (MSM) 10.4 1.1 5.3 39.1 Bahrain (BAX) 9.6 0.4 4.8 0.7 1D Change Performance Value (%) YTD (%) YoY (%) Vol. P/E (‘000) TTM GCC Fundamentals Dividend Value Traded Yield (%) (USD mn) Source: Bloomberg Qatar Trading Activity Top Gainers Qatar General Ins & Re Widam Food Co National Leasing Qatari Investors Group Medicare Group Top Losers Al Khaleej Takaful Grp Vodafone Qatar Al Khalij Comm Bank Commercial Bank Qsc Qatar National Bank Close Price 44.5 61.2 13.9 54.0 64.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 3.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 (4.2) 15.9 (1.5) 43.2 (46.4) (12.6) 27.5 (9.2) 36.7 (52.6) 19.2 8.8 17.2 33.6 149.0 (0.9) (0.4) (0.5) (0.4) (1.6) (4.7) (4.7) (2.5) (1.2) (1.1) (37.2) (30.7) (4.3) (26.8) 2.2 (37.7) 21.9 16.5 (27.7) 2,872.9 NA (7.5) 12.9 10.6 (30.0) 94.4 31.9 5.8 164.3 10.2 Source: Bloomberg; Note: Prices are in local currency. 0.1 4.0 3.1 13.0 13.5 NA 5.2 23.5 327.9 20.7 Qatar DSM Index 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 1/Sep 30.0 20.0 9,689.1 10.0 0.0 15/Sep 29/Sep 13/Oct Index Volume (mn) 27/Oct 10/Nov 24/Nov Index Value Source: Bloomberg QE Sector Indices Banks & Financial Services Consumer Goods & Services Industrials Insurance Real Estate Telecoms Transportation Closing Level 2,713.7 5,531.4 3,028.7 4,202.9 2,128.0 1,085.2 2,389.9 1D Change (%) (0.9) (0.3) (0.0) 0.1 (0.3) (0.9) 0.1 Buy (%) 41.9 24.5 66.4 7.8 25.8 33.6 Sell (%) 33.6 19.6 53.2 6.8 40.0 46.8 Source: Qatar Exchange Qatar Trading Summary Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Qatari – Total Foreign Individuals Foreign Institutions Foreign – Total Source: Qatar Stock Exchange, Bloomberg 1
2. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 29 , 2016 GLOBAL NEWS    The OECD lifted the global growth projection for 2017 to 3.3% from 3.2% it forecasted in September-16. The rise in growth forecast was attributed to an ongoing shift in fiscal stance of major economies, especially the USA, after Donald Trump takes office as the president in 2017. (Source: Bloomberg)  (Source: Trade Arabia)  Euro zone recovery has withstood economic and political uncertainty and its recovery is expected to continue, partly supported by European Central Bank's monetary stimulus, according to ECB President Mario Draghi. (Source: Reuters) Net foreign assets at Saudi Arabia's central bank shrank by USD 10.8bn from a month earlier to USD 535.9bn in October-16, as the government liquidated reserves to cover a large budget gap caused by low oil prices. (Source: Zawya)  Bank loans to euro zone companies grew by 2.1% MoM in October-16, registering its fastest pace of growth in the last five and a half years, however the pace of money circulation slowed, with annual growth in M3 money supply slowing to 4.4% in October-16 from 5.1% in September-16. (Source: Reuters) Saudi Arabia and the emirate of Abu Dhabi plan to more than double their production of petrochemicals to cash in on growing demand from Asia, according to statements by ADNOC chief and head of ARAMCO’s downstream business. (Source: Bloomberg)  Al Akaria, a leading Saudi real estate development company, has announced plans to set up a new contracting and building construction works company following regulatory approval. The new firm will start operations with a capital of SAR 100mn consisting of 10mn common shares with par value of SAR10 each. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Murabaha Finance, a top financing company in Saudi Arabia, has entered into an agreement with Shariyah Review Bureau (SRB), under which SRB will be the exclusive Sharia Advisor and Sharia Auditor for its financing products and operational upgrades. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Saudi Arabian Mining Company plans to double gold production by 2020 to 500,000 ounces from 200,000 in 2016, according to the company’s CEO. He further added that the company is increasing output of other commodities from aluminium to ammonia in attempts to diversify its product base away from crude. (Source: Gulf Times)  Supreme Judicial Council of the Ministry of Justice and Islamic Affairs and Waqf has appointed Savills, a leading consultancy firm as advisor to the Committee for the Settlement of Stalled Real Estate Projects in Bahrain. The consultancy will act as exclusive sales agent for the project. (Source: Trade Arabia)  Italy’s consumer confidence index remained stable in November- 16 at 107.9, as compared with October’s 108.(Source: Econotimes)  The People’s Bank of China will leave the reserve ratio unchanged at 17% through 2016 year end, however, the rate is expected to be cut to 16.5% in Q1-17, according to Bloomberg economists. (Source: Bloomberg)  The average household spending in Japan slid 0.4% YoY to JPY 281,961 in October-16. The unemployment rate stood at 3.0 %, unchanged from September-16, according to Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. (Source: Nikkei Asian Review) GCC NEWS  The National Bank of Abu Dhabi has confirmed UK’s court ruling against British energy company (BP), which must now pay over AED 250mn to NBAD, in a case stemming from the closure of Morocco’s Samir refinery in 2015. (Source: Zawya)  Etihad Cargo, the freight division of Etihad Airways, recently recorded its busiest month in October-16, uplifting 53,785 tonnes of cargo. The growth is attributable due to perishables traffic from Africa, US inbound and outbound traffic, and volumes from Europe to Asia Pacific. (Source: Trade Arabia)   Yoox Net-A-Porter Group (YNAP), a global online luxury fashion retailer, has announced a joint venture with Symphony Investments (controlled by Mohamed Alabbar), to create a new online luxury retail business in the Middle East. YNAP will hold a 60% stake in the JV, while Symphony Investments will own the remaining 40%. (Source: Trade Arabia) Al Futtaim Engineering and Technologies a leading regional business house in Dubai, appointed Dr Hayan Sayed as its new CEO. (Source: Trade Arabia)    Saudi Arabia has appointed Haulotte Group, a French aerial work platform manufacturer, for cleaning of the Masjid Al Haram in Makkah. The company has deployed its fleet of hitech equipment and machineries through Roots Group Arabia, its dealer in Saudi Arabia. Al Hamra Real Estate Development, the largest real estate developer in Ras Al Khaimah, UAE, has become the first in the country to be awarded Leed (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) for Homes status by the US Green Building Council for the company’s Bayti community of upmarket townhouses. (Source: Trade Arabia) Mubadala, the Abu Dhabi based investment & development company, and Chinese aviation & shipping conglomerate HNA Group have signed a MoU regarding expanded investment collaboration between the two organizations across range of sectors which include tourism, logistics, and financial services. (Source: Trade Arabia) Saudi Arabia's government has decided to suspend its monthly issue of domestic bonds for November-16. This is the second month in a row that it has cancelled the debt sale. The government had been offering about SAR 20bn riyals of bonds to banks every month since mid-2015, to help cover a budget deficit caused by low oil prices. (Source: Zawya) QATAR NEWS  KLJ Organic Qatar and Gulf Chlorine recently signed an agreement to establish a calcium chloride plant at the Mesaieed Industrial City in Doha, Qatar. The new plant, which will be set up the under the name of United Chemicals, and will produce 60,000 tonnes per year of calcium chloride. (Source: Trade Arabia)  QSE announces trading suspension on Qatar Islamic Insurance Company shares on Tuesday, 29th November, 2016 due to its EGM being held on that day. (Source: QSE)  QSE announces trading suspension on Qatar International Islamic Bank shares on Tuesday, 29th November, 2016 due to its EGM being held on that day. (Source: QSE)  Ukraine considers Qatar as a truly important commercial and investment partner and a potential supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to Ukrain’s ambassador. (Source: Gulf Times)  Members of a business delegation from Georgia recently met with officials of the Qatar Chamber to discuss ways to boost trade ties and attract more Qatari investments into Georgia. During the meeting, both parties reviewed investment opportunities and the potential of Georgia’s Health sector, according to Georgia’s Deputy Minister of Labour, Health and Social Affairs. (Source: Gulf Times)  Ooredoo became a key technology service partner for Hamad Port as they signed a MoU that will see Ooredoo provide telecom services, including ICT implementation to the new port. (Source: Gulf Times)  International Bank of Qatar, which has around 3% market share in the total assets of the country’s banking industry, has been assigned A2/Prime-1 deposit ratings, a four-notch uplift from the lender’s baa3 baseline credit assessment by Moody’s. (Source: Gulf Times) 2
3. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 29 , 2016 FX RATES Currencies Value Currencies Value EUR/USD 1.0644 USD/QAR 3.6414 111.9400 EUR/QAR 3.8759 USD/JPY GBP/USD 1.2446 JPY/QAR 0.0325 USD/CHF 1.0127 GBP/QAR 4.5321 USD/CAD 1.3412 CHF/QAR 3.5957 AUD/USD 0.7482 CAD/QAR 2.7150 NZD/USD 0.7073 AUD/QAR 2.7245 USD/INR 68.2750 INR/QAR 0.0533 USD/TRY 3.4154 TRY/QAR 1.0662 USD/ZAR 13.7300 ZAR/QAR 0.2652 USD/BRL 3.3876 BRL/QAR 1.0749 FX Commentary USD fell against the basket of currencies as investor resorted to profit booking prompted by a drop in US treasury yields. CAD gained due to rally in oil prices. The currency got further support after Bank of Canada governor signaled the continuation of a wait and watch stance. GBP closed lower against the greenback after leaks showed increased possibility of the UK leaving the European single market. BoE’s MPC member’s hawkish stance had little impact of the currency. The EUR rose to a 11-year high, boosted by the election of Francois Fillon as the center-right candidate in next year's French presidential elections. The gains were however capped after ECB President reiterated the importance of monetary stimulus for Eurozone recovery. JPY rose as October unemployment rate came in line with expectation. General profit booking in USD also supported the yen. Source: Bloomberg INTERBANK OFFERING & US SWAP RATES Duration SOVEREIGN YIELD CURVES & CDS SPREAD Overnight 1 Week 0.43 0.46 0.61 0.94 1.65 (0.41) (0.38) (0.37) (0.31) (0.08) QAIBOR 1.03 1.14 1.36 1.69 2.13 SAIBOR NA 1.40 1.87 2.09 2.48 LIBOR EURIBOR 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year EIBOR 0.42 0.53 0.74 1.41 2.04 BMIBOR 0.43 0.65 0.95 1.53 1.90 KIBOR 0.75 NA 1.06 1.38 2.00 Qatar vs US Treasuries Yields 4.0% 2.36% 2.0% 0.0% 2.82% 2.82% 1.95% 2.28% 7 Yrs 10 Yrs US 4.49% 2.99% 0.68% 1.53% 0.63% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs Qatar 30 Yrs Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg US Swap Rates 5 Years CDS 3.0% US 29.0 6.7 Turkey 294.7 21.0 UK 39.0 7.0 Brazil 302.4 (48.1) Germany 22.8 3.6 Egypt 451.1 (37.4) France 39.9 2.9 Abu Dhabi 69.0 (31.0) Italy 181.5 54.9 Bahrain 332.9 (37.1) Greece 927.9 (27.9) Dubai 158.0 (57.0) Russia 224.6 (35.4) Qatar 89.0 (21.0) Japan 33.0 (1.0) Saudi Arabia 126.8 (38.2) 2.0% 2.53% 2.15% 1.96% 1.77% 1.31% 1.0% 2.07% 1.81% 1.57% 2.42% 0.99% 0.0% 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs Current 10 Yrs Last Year 30 Yrs Spreads 6M Change 5 Years CDS Spread 6M Change Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg ECONOMIC CALENDAR Time Country Event Period Survey Prior 10:45 France GDP YoY 3Q P 1.10% 1.10% 10:45 France GDP QoQ 3Q P 0.20% 0.20% 12:30 UK Mortgage Approvals Oct 65.0k 62.9k 13:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov F (6.1) (6.1) 16:00 Germany CPI MoM Nov P 0.10% 0.20% 16:00 Germany CPI YoY Nov P 0.80% 0.80% 16:00 Germany CPI EU Harmonized MoM Nov P 0.10% 0.20% 16:00 Germany CPI EU Harmonized YoY Nov P 0.80% 0.70% 16:30 US GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q S 3.00% 2.90% 16:30 US GDP Price Index 3Q S 1.50% 1.50% 18:00 US Consumer Confidence Index Nov 101.5 98.6 02:50 Japan Industrial Production MoM Oct P 0.00% 0.60% 02:50 Japan Industrial Production YoY Oct P (1.30%) 1.50% Source: Bloomberg GCC COMPANY RESULTS Company Name Revenues (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) Net Profit (mn) YoY (%) QoQ (%) 37.4 6.0 3.3 13.5 (0.5) 34.3 Ahli United Bank (Almutahed) Source: Bloomberg; Note: All figures are in local currency 3
4. DAILY MARKET UPDATE November 29 , 2016 QSE MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS Company Ahli Bank Comm. Bank of Qatar Dlala Doha Bank Islamic Holding Al khalij Commercial Bank Rayan National Leasing First Bank (QFC) Qatar Islamic Bank Intl. Islamic Bank QNB Qatar Oman Banks & Financial Services Medicare Mannai Corp. Al Meera Cinema Qatar Fuel Qatar German Co. Med Salam International Widam Zad Holding Company Consumer Goods & Services Aamal Gulf International Industries Qatar Mesaieed Qatar Electricity & Water The Investors Ind. Manf. Co. National Cement Co. Industrials Al Kaleej Takaful Doha Insurance Qatar Insurance General Insurance Islamic Insurance Insurance Barwa Ezdan Holding Mazaya Qatar United Dev. Company Real Estate Ooredoo Vodafone Qatar Telecoms Gulf warehousing Co Nakilat Qatar Navigation Transportation Market Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 8.8 0.0 8.9 2.0 5.7 5.2 3.6 0.0 4.3 6.6 1.9 6.3 3.5 6.6 7.9 6.0 5.9 5.5 0.0 9.3 4.4 5.3 6.0 7.3 3.4 4.8 4.7 3.6 2.3 7.1 3.9 4.6 5.0 5.6 2.4 3.2 8.2 2.8 7.3 3.4 2.3 8.1 4.7 3.3 2.3 3.1 2.4 5.5 5.9 5.3 4.0 P/B Ratio (x) 1.6 0.8 2.1 0.9 2.2 1.1 2.1 0.7 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.8 2.3 1.2 1.8 1.1 0.8 3.8 0.7 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.4 3.0 2.7 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.0 0.9 2.4 0.6 2.2 1.6 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.3 2.0 1.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 P/E Ratio (x) 11.5 17.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 7.0 (H) (‫)م‬ 10.9 11.9 (M) (‫)س‬ (H) (‫)م‬ 11.0 11.6 10.4 26.1 10.9 7.0 20.6 18.5 12.2 11.1 (M) (‫)س‬ 10.5 12.9 5.6 10.8 13.1 32.4 18.9 18.5 14.4 23.3 10.1 10.9 17.2 17.2 9.1 18.3 3.9 12.0 11.4 12.0 22.7 14.0 12.1 17.6 13.3 (M) (‫)س‬ 21.4 14.6 12.9 10.9 12.2 13.2 EPS (QR) 3.4 1.9 (M) (‫)س‬ 4.8 0.2 1.6 2.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 0.0 9.1 5.3 14.5 0.4 5.9 10.9 3.1 8.1 2.1 12.6 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.0 4.7 13.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 5.5 0.8 14.5 2.3 4.1 7.7 2.6 1.2 2.0 4.4 11.1 4.1 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.0 6.8 (M) (‫)س‬ 1.5 3.4 1.8 7.8 2.8 3.2 BV/Share (QR) 25.0 43.6 9.3 36.6 24.7 16.9 16.4 20.5 10.3 58.6 37.0 77.2 10.0 39.3 55.3 35.1 66.7 21.4 76.8 8.5 14.3 15.9 106.9 44.2 12.4 21.1 55.1 11.2 70.1 20.0 31.9 50.2 24.4 20.9 21.3 33.1 72.5 22.0 38.8 46.7 11.2 13.2 30.3 17.2 70.9 5.7 23.6 25.1 15.0 120.1 32.4 27.9 Stock Price (QR) 39.0 34.0 20.0 33.9 54.0 17.7 33.7 13.8 9.6 99.9 61.0 150.6 9.5 76.2 63.7 150.0 25.4 139.0 9.6 10.8 60.8 76.1 13.1 29.3 104.2 15.1 208.0 53.7 42.0 84.0 20.1 18.0 80.6 43.0 48.7 30.1 14.8 12.0 18.6 90.8 9.2 49.9 22.7 85.3 Company ‫االهلي‬ ‫التجاري‬ ‫داللة‬ ‫بنك الدوحة‬ ‫اإلسالمية القابضة‬ ‫الخليجي‬ ‫الريان‬ ‫االجارة‬ ‫ األو ل‬QFC ‫المصرف‬ ‫الدولي‬ ‫الوطني قطر بنك‬ ‫قطروعمان‬ ‫البنوك والخدمات المالية‬ ‫الرعاية‬ ‫مجمع المناعي‬ ‫الميرة‬ ‫السينما‬ ‫قطر للوقود‬ ‫الطبية‬ ‫السالم‬ ‫ودام‬ ‫زاد‬ ‫البضائع والخدمات االستهالكية‬ ‫أعمال‬ ‫الخليج الدولية‬ ‫صناعات قطر‬ ‫مسيعيد‬ ‫كهرباء وماء‬ ‫المستثمرين‬ ‫التحويلية‬ ‫االسمنت‬ ‫الصناعات‬ ‫الخليج‬ ‫الدوحة‬ ‫قطر‬ ‫العامة‬ ‫االسالمية‬ ‫التأمين‬ ‫بروة‬ ‫إزدان القابضة‬ ‫مزايا قطر‬ ‫المتحدة للتنمية‬ ‫العقارات‬ ‫كيوتل‬ ‫فودافون قطر‬ ‫االتصاالت‬ ‫مخازن‬ ‫ناقالت‬ ‫المالحة‬ ‫النقل‬ Source: Qatar Exchange; Note: The above mentioned indicators were calculated according to the latest reliable financial data. DISCLAIMER It is understood that any opinions expressed by Commercial Bank or its affiliates as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific securities reflects the views of the individual analyst who issued them, and not necessarily represent the views of Commercial Bank or its affiliates in any way. In no event shall CBQ or its affiliates have any liability for any direct or indirect losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this materials or for any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of the said information. 4