Oman Weekly Market Monitor - 11 June

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1. Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research June 11 , 2017 Current Week Index Performance Previous Week 5,354.77 MSM 30 Index . Financial Index Industrial Index Services Index 5,435.41 WTD (%) YTD (%) Beta (Yr) -1.48% -7.40% 1.000 8,005.58 8,112.26 -1.32% 4.35% 1.208 7,204.54 7,322.07 -1.61% -2.74% 0.716 2,723.48 2,759.24 -1.30% -10.96% 0.597 Source: MSM, GBCM Research MSM 30 Index Performance Vs Turnover 4,000 5,445 5,425 In RO 000s 3,000 5,405 2,000 5,385 5,365 1,000 5,345 - 5,325 Turnover 1-Jun 3,164 4-Jun 3,670 5-Jun 2,270 6-Jun 2,679 7-Jun 2,762 8-Jun 2,031 MSM 30 5,435 5,428 5,406 5,412 5,377 5,355 S MSM Weekly Trading Activity - Total Turnover RO 13.411 million (c.US$ 34.87 million) Fig. In RO Omanis GCC Arabs Others Source: MSM, GBCM Research Page | 1 Buy Sell Net Buy / (Sell) 12,193,972 11,014,565 1,179,407 846,102 411,278 434,824 153,916 92,977 60,938 217,055 1,892,225 (1,675,170) Negativity in the region weighs on market… The MSM 30 Index ended the week lower by 1.48% at 5,354.77 points. Escalating geo political tensions in the region coupled with drop in global crude prices weighed on the performance of the benchmark. For the week, the Financial Index ended lower by 1.32% while the Industrial Index declined by 1.61%. The Services Index ended the week in red by 1.30%. In terms of market activity, a total 71.971 million shares got traded during the week amounting to an aggregate turnover of RO 13.411 million as against RO 14.186 million in previous week. In terms of participation, Foreign Investors emerged as net sellers to an extent of RO 1.675 million. Omani and GCC Investors emerged as net buyers to an extent of RO 1.179 million and RO 435 K respectively. Oman Telecom Data – April 2017 Mobile subscription in the Sultanate reached 7.05 million at the end of April, registering a 2.7% growth over 2016. There was a similar growth in pre-paid subscriptions which reached 6.42 million from 6.25 million. The total number of fixed telephone lines was 457,022 marking an increase by 8.2%. Internet subscribers grew to 306,186. Active mobile broadband subscriptions reached 4.1 million, up 4.2%. International internet bandwidth grew by 18.8% to 404,718 Mbps. (Source: Oman Tribune) Outlook for the upcoming week… During the last trading week, we saw mixed closing among the GCC markets with the underperformance seen in Oman and Qatar. Saudi, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain closed the week almost flat while DFM closed in a positive territory. Owing to enduring regional geopolitical tensions coupled with volatile oil prices we anticipate the MSM and the GCC markets to reveal an increased risk aversion trend among the investors during the week. In addition the ongoing holy month of Ramadan and also holiday’s season may dampen the overall market participation. We recommend investors to stick to the frontline stocks which provide comfort.
2. Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research Value Leaders-Weekly 2 ,500 15.2% Top Five Gainers/ Losers for the Week 14.9% 16% Financial Ser 14% Oman Nat Engr 2,000 12% 7.2% 6.9% 6.9% Al Sharq Inv Hldg -5.1% 0.8% 6% 2.4% 4% 500 3.3% 2% Raysut Cement Ooredoo Gulf Inv Ser Al Madina Tak Omantel 0% HSBC Bank Oman Al Izz Islamic Al Bat Dev & Inv Hldg 4.7% Acwa Power Barka United Finance 14.2% MSM Sectoral Market cap for the week Volume Leaders- Weekly 12,000 -5.9% -5.2% Oman Fisheries 8% 1,000 -7.7% Al Jaz Steel Prod 10% 1,500 0 -41.7% 14.9% Other Services, 5.1% 16% 13.0% 10,000 14% 11.0% 12% 10.5% 8,000 Power Utilities, 12.6% 10% 7.0% 6,000 6% 4,000 Banking, 35.1% 8% Telecom, 14.8% 4% Investments, 6.7% 2,000 0 2% Gulf Inv Ser Source: MSM, GBCM Research Page | 2 Bank Nizwa Al Madina Tak Al Izz Islamic Al Madina Inv 0% Oil Marketing, 4.7% Other Industry, 11.3% Engg & Const., 0.4% Source: MSM, GBCM Research Leasing, 3.3% Cement, 4.3% Brokerage, 0.2% Insurance, 1.5%
3. Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research MSM - Value Indicators GCC- Market Performance for the week Value Indicators Mkt . Cap (RO’000s) PER P/BV Dividend Yield (%) MSM 30 Index 6,165,854 12.9 1.1 6.0% Financial 3,324,281 8.4 0.9 5.0% Industrial 897,829 12.8 1.3 5.5% Services 2,598,177 60.9 1.7 7.1% 2,422,290 12.9 1.5 6.8% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% MSM Shariah ` Source: MSM, GBCM Research Current Week Last Week WTD (%) NYMEX WTI Crude 45.8 47.7 -3.8% ICE Brent Crude 48.2 50.0 -3.6% Crude Oil, Oman 47.1 48.8 -3.5% NYMEX Natural Gas 3.0 3.0 1.3% 150.2 157.7 -4.8% Gold Spot 1,266.6 1,279.2 -1.0% Silver Spot 17.2 17.6 -2.0% LME Aluminium (Spot) 1,901.3 1,929.3 -1.5% LME Copper (Spot) 5,779.5 5,640.0 2.5% LME Zinc (Spot) 2,515.0 2,514.5 0.0% Hot Rolled Coil - Steel 600.0 575.0 4.3% CBOT Corn 387.8 372.8 4.0% CBOT Wheat 445.8 429.5 3.8% CBOT Soyabean 941.5 921.3 2.2% NYMEX Gasoline Source: Bloomberg; GBCM Research Page | 3 Saudi UAE (DFM) UAE (Abu Dhabi) Kuwait Qatar Bahrain WTD (%) -1.5% 0.0% 1.4% -0.1% -0.4% -7.1% -0.1% YTD (%) -7.4% -4.8% -3.7% -1.5% 18.0% -11.5% 8.4% Source: Bloomberg, GBCM Research Commodities Performance for the week Commodities Oman Oman - Weekly News watch… Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) of HSBC Bank Oman (HBON) at 'A-' and Bank Muscat (BM) at 'BBB'. National Bank of Oman (NBO), Ahli Bank (ABO), BankDhofar (BD) and Bank Sohar (BS) have also been affirmed at Long-Term IDR BBB-'. The Outlooks on all the Long-Term IDRs are Stable .Fitch has downgraded the Viability Rating (VR) of ABO, reflecting its weaker funding profile relative to peers, particularly its high reliance on wholesale funding and high deposit concentration. Fitch believes Oman has the financial flexibility to support its banking system despite some weakening as a result of lower oil prices. The fiscal policy response to the drop in oil prices has not prevented a significant deterioration in public finances. (Source: Bloomberg) GCC - Weekly News Watch… Emaar Properties has announced plans to offer up to 30% of its UAE real estate development business in an initial public offering (IPO). Subject to market conditions, the funds raised through the sale of equity will be primarily distributed as dividends to Emaar’s shareholders. This will help create significant value for its shareholders, it added. (Source: Trade Arabia) S&P Global reduced Qatar’s credit rating to AA- from AA in the latest fallout from the decision by a group of Middle Eastern countries to cut diplomatic and trade ties. (Source: Trade Arabia)
4. Weekly Market Monitor GBCM Research | Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage – Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727| Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728| Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither GULF BAADER CAPITAL MARKETS SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. Page | 4