GCC - Equity Market Monitor - 8 June

Transcription

1. GBCM Morning Briefing Contents GCC Equity Markets Monitor MSM Statistics and Indicators MENA , Global markets, Benchmark Indices and Currencies Performance Global Commodities and Petrochemicals Oman News MSM Market Watch Regional News Coverage June 8, 2017 6/8/2017
2. GCC - Equity Market Monitor 25 .0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Daily Return Oman -0.6% Saudi 0.2% UAE (DFM) 2.5% UAE (ADX) -0.1% Kuwait - PI 0.3% Kuwait - Wtd -0.5% Qatar -1.0% Bahrain -0.3% YTD Return -7.0% -3.7% -3.5% -2.0% 18.6% 5.3% -14.1% 8.2% MTD Return -0.8% 1.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% -1.0% -9.5% 0.1% QTD Return -3.1% -0.8% -2.1% 0.2% -3.0% -3.1% -13.7% -2.6% Source: Respective Stock Markets, Bloomberg, GBCM Research GBCM Morning Briefing 2
3. MSM - Net Buy /(Sell) Position Top 5 - Turnover Market Share – Previous Day Previous Day Turnover: RO 2.762 million (c. US$ 7.2 million) Figures In RO Value Leaders Sector Turnover (RO) Market Share Al Madina Takaful Insurance 389,719 14.1% BUY SELL NET 2,607,440 2,010,698 596,742 Bank Nizwa Banking 351,390 12.7% GCC 93,949 99,765 (5,816) Ooredoo Services 325,260 11.8% Arabs 33,258 2,130 31,128 Anwar Ceramic Tiles Industry 263,370 9.5% OTHERS 26,977 649,031 (622,053) Bank Muscat Banking 205,866 7.5% OMANIS MSM - Lead Indicators Value Indicators ** Mkt. Cap (In RO 000s) Daily Market Performance PER (X) P/BV (X) Dividend Yield (%) Indices Monitor Current Closing Previous Closing Daily % MTD % Chg Chg YTD % Chg MSM 30 6,188,872 13.0 1.1 6.0% MSM 30 5,377.17 5,411.93 -0.64% -0.83% -7.01% Financial 3,337,790 8.4 0.9 5.0% Financial 8,028.10 8,081.02 -0.65% -0.42% 4.64% Industrial 902,802 12.8 1.3 5.5% Industrial 7,250.48 7,302.82 -0.72% -0.61% -2.12% Services 2,604,419 61.1 1.7 7.0% Services 2,729.07 2,739.82 -0.39% -1.53% -10.78% MSM Shariah 2,430,273 13.0 1.5 6.8% 790.29 797.35 -0.89% -0.37% -9.06% MSM Shariah 6/8/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 3
4. MENA Markets Performance Index Global Markets Performance Closing % Chg MENA 13,633.0 0.0 Egypt Jordan Tunis Morocco Palestine Turkey %MTD %QTD %YTD 4.9 -3.5 4.3 2.8 -2.0 9.7 10.4 0.0 5.4 0.4 -0.4 24.9 -1.6 -2.2 -4.0 -3.1 -1.8 5.6 7.1 -1.5 -2.6 -3.0 -2.6 1.1 -2.8 13.6 17.0 -2.4 2.2 2,170.7 0.2 -0.2 5,782.6 0.2 1.5 24,552.2 1.0 1.4 528.2 0.2 0.0 97,616.5 -0.7 0.1 MENA Benchmark (S&P/ MSCI) S&P GCC LMC 118.6 0.1 -0.4 S&P GCC (USD) 96.4 0.2 -0.5 977.1 0.2 -2.4 S&P GCC (40 Index) – Price Return S&P GCC (40 Index) – Total Return 1,589.4 0.2 -2.4 MSCI GCC 463.4 0.1 -0.2 MSCI Frontier 567.4 -0.2 1.1 MSCI Frontier ex GCC 882.0 0.0 1.8 MSCI Arabian Index 506.7 0.2 -0.1 Index Closing % Chg Americas S&P 500 Dow Jones Nasdaq Brazil 2,433.1 21,173.7 6,297.4 63,170.7 Index Closing Nikkei Hang Seng Sensex Shanghai Korea Russia % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD 1,927.1 0.1 0.8 4.0 10.0 MSCI World -Ex USA 1,890.2 -0.1 0.7 5.4 11.8 MSCI Europe- USD 1,684.5 -0.1 0.0 7.3 14.5 MSCI EM Index 1,015.7 0.0 1.0 6.0 17.8 Dollar Index USD Vs EURO USD Vs Canadian Dollar USD Vs Japanese Yen USD Vs GBP USD Vs Swedish Krona USD Vs Swiss Franc USD Vs Chinese Renminbi USD Vs Hong Kong Dollar USD Vs Indian Rupee USD Vs Aus Dollar USD Vs Indonesia Rupiah USD Vs Turkish Lira Spot USD Vs Omani Riyal USD Vs UAE Dirham USD Vs Saudi Riyal USD Vs Kuwait Dinar USD Vs Qatar Riyal USD Vs Bahrain Dinar Fixed Income (Bloomberg/EFFAS Bond Indices) US 10+ Yr TR 583.8 -0.4 0.6 4.0 5.9 Euro Liquid 10+ Yr TR 230.4 -0.2 0.0 1.1 -0.4 -3.7 -6.1 Commodity (Bloomberg) Commodity 82.2 0.3 -0.8 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg GBCM Morning Briefing %QTD %YTD 0.9 0.8 1.6 0.7 3.0 2.5 6.5 -2.8 8.7 7.1 17.0 4.9 -0.5 -0.3 0.5 2.1 2.8 2.9 4.7 8.3 10.4 1.7 1.4 0.4 0.9 0.3 -1.8 5.7 7.9 5.6 -2.4 9.0 -7.1 4.6 18.3 17.4 1.3 16.2 -10.2 %QTD %YTD -3.6 5.7 -1.4 1.5 3.2 3.3 3.9 1.3 -0.3 0.7 -1.1 0.1 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -5.3 7.0 -0.5 6.6 5.0 4.8 5.6 2.2 -0.5 5.5 4.7 1.3 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 Global Currencies Index Global Equity (MSCI) MSCI World – USD Europe 7,478.6 -0.6 5,265.5 -0.1 12,672.5 -0.1 Asia Pacific 19,993.1 0.0 26,027.4 0.2 31,271.7 0.0 3,144.8 0.1 2,354.3 -0.2 1,034.3 -0.7 FTSE 100 CAC 40 DAX Global Benchmark Indices 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 %MTD 4 Closing % Chg %MTD In Comparison with USD 96.759 1.126 1.351 109.710 1.295 8.686 0.965 6.796 7.797 64.404 0.755 13,304.000 3.548 0.385 3.673 3.751 0.303 3.651 0.377 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.2 1.5 0.1 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.1
5. Commodities Performance Index Closing Petrochemical Performance % Chg %MTD %QTD %YTD Index Benzene Aromatics Rotterdam Benzene FOB Korea Spot 765.0 740.0 Benzene CFR Japan Spot Benzene CFR India Spot NYMEX Crude 46.0 0.6 -4.8 -10.5 -19.0 ICE Brent Crude 48.4 0.7 -4.6 -10.3 -17.7 Crude Oil, Oman 47.1 -3.7 -5.6 -9.2 -13.2 NYMEX Natural Gas 3.0 -0.2 -1.8 -9.1 -15.9 150.2 0.7 -5.9 -10.9 -18.8 Precious Metals Gold Spot 1,285.5 -0.1 1.3 2.9 11.6 Silver Spot 17.6 0.1 1.7 -3.5 10.7 Platinum Spot 947.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 4.9 Palladium Spot 829.7 0.2 1.7 3.9 21.1 Base Metals LME Aluminium-Spot 1,902.8 0.2 -1.2 -2.5 11.7 LME Copper-Spot 5,591.8 0.1 -1.2 -3.9 1.2 LME Zinc-Spot 2,428.8 -0.5 -6.1 -11.7 -5.0 LME Lead-Spot 2,041.0 -0.5 -2.8 -12.4 2.1 LME Nickel-Spot 8,754.5 -0.7 -1.9 -12.1 -12.1 Steel US - Hot Roll Coil Steel 589.0 0.0 2.4 -3.4 -3.1 Agriculture Corn - Active Contract 386.3 0.4 3.8 3.9 6.0 Wheat - Active Contract 447.0 0.5 4.1 1.8 2.9 CBOT - Soya bean 935.8 0.5 2.2 -2.2 -8.2 Shipping Baltic Dry Index 821.0 0.4 %QTD %YTD -6.1 -2.0 -6.7 -8.1 -10.0 -10.8 745.0 -2.0 -8.0 -10.8 750.0 -2.0 -8.0 -10.7 -13.0 -13.7 %MTD Aromatics (in USD/ MT) Energy NYMEX Gasoline Closing -6.5 -36.7 -14.6 Condensates (in USD/ MT) European Naptha 399.8 -8.0 Naphtha C&F Japan 428.0 -2.0 -8.7 -13.8 Naphtha CIF NWE Cargo 402.1 -6.2 -14.2 -17.3 Naphtha fob Singapore Spot 46.3 -2.0 -8.7 -13.7 Olefins (in USD/ MT) Ethylene Spot 1,125.0 1.4 -5.5 21.6 Ethylene FOB Korea Spot 925.0 -5.6 -15.5 -16.3 Ethylene FOB Japan Spot 920.0 -5.6 -15.6 -16.4 Propylene FOB Korea Spot 855.0 -0.6 2.4 -1.2 8.6 Intermediate (in USD/ MT) 2EH CFR Far East Asia 945.0 -1.1 -8.3 2EH CFR South East Asia 965.0 -1.0 -8.1 8.4 DOP CFR Far East Asia 975.0 -1.0 1.0 -1.0 Polymers (in USD/ MT) LLDPE Future Contract (CNY/ MT) Film Grd Poly HDPE Far E Spot 8,980.0 1,090.0 -1.8 0.0 -1.9 -4.4 -8.0 -6.8 Film Grd Poly HDPE SE Asia 1,120.0 0.9 -3.5 -4.3 Film Grd Poly HDPE India Spot 1,130.0 0.0 -3.4 0.0 0.6 -1.8 5.2 Urea (in USD/ MT) Urea Price (RMB/ MT) 1,630.0 UREA Cornbelt 225.0 0.0 -10.0 -18.2 UREA Middle East 199.0 -5.2 -6.1 -18.8 US Urea Avg. Retail Price 342.6 -2.3 -7.5 -0.8 Source: Data taken from Bloomberg 6/8/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 5
6. Oman News Fitch Affirms 6 Omani Banks ' LT IDRs; Downgrades 1 VR (Source: Bloomberg)  Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) of HSBC Bank Oman (HBON) at 'A-' and Bank Muscat (BM) at 'BBB'.  National Bank of Oman (NBO), Ahli Bank (ABO), BankDhofar (BD) and Bank Sohar (BS) have also been affirmed at Long-Term IDR BBB-'.  The Outlooks on all the Long-Term IDRs are Stable.Fitch has downgraded the Viability Rating (VR) of ABO, reflecting its weaker funding profile relative to peers, particularly its high reliance on wholesale funding and high deposit concentration.  BM's, NBO's, ABO's, BD's and BS' IDRs, Support Ratings (SRs) and Support Rating Floors (SRFs) reflect Fitch's expectation of a high probability of support fromthe Omani authorities in case of need.  Fitch believes Oman has the financial flexibility to support its banking system despite some weakening as a result of lower oil prices. The fiscal policy response to the drop in oil prices has not prevented a significant deterioration in public finances.  Fitch believes the Omani authorities' willingness to support domestic banks remains high, partly because of high contagion risk (small number and high concentration of banks in the system) and the importance of the banking system in building the local economy.  BM's, NBO's, ABO's, BD's and BS' IDRs, SRs and SRFs are sensitive to a change in Fitch's assumptions around the Omani authorities' propensity or ability toprovide timely support to the banking sector.  If the sovereign is downgraded by one notch the SRFs would also be revised down by one notch. This would affect the Long-Term IDRs of ABO, BD and BS as they are driven by the SRF. This would also affect the Long-Term IDR of BM as BM is unlikely to be rated above the sovereign. Bank Sohar: Conversion of Second One-Third portion of MCB’s Issued in 2013 (Source: MSM)  The bank has disclosed that that the second one-third tranche of the Mandatory Convertible Bonds of OMR 7.150 Million, issued in 2013 and amounting to OMR 2.383 Million was converted to common equity shares of the Bank on 28 April, 2017.  As per the terms of the bond issuance, the price for the conversion was OMR 0.121. This price was calculated at a twenty percent discount on the weighted average closing market price of the shares of the Bank for the three months immediately preceding 28 April, 2017.  The overall process is complete and the conversion was enforced by MSM on May 4th, 2017. GBCM Morning Briefing 6
7. Oman News Oman Drydock to tie up with three major intl firms (Source: Oman Observer)  Oman Drydock Company (ODC) is set to join hands with a trio of prominent international marine engineering services providers in an ambitious bid to add new market segments to its portfolio of ship repair and maintenance services.  While two of the companies in question are based in Singapore, a global hub for ship repair and marine engineering services, the third is headquartered in the Far West, said Dr Ahmed al Abri (pictured), ODC Deputy CEO — Operations.  The identities of the three companies, he added, will be revealed once their appointments as technical partners are formally approved by Asyad (formerly Oman Global Logistics Group), the holding company which represents the government’s interests in a number of transport and logistics entities operating in the Sultanate, including ODC.  The first will be dedicated to the small, specialised vessels segment of the market, while the second will focus on the market for large vessels, retrofits, conversions and subsea projects. The third partner will be exclusively focused on the offshore market.  The new partnerships, due to be formalised shortly, will help wholly government-owned ODC diversify its service offerings to encompass the dry-docking and maintenance of all kinds of crafts and structures.  This includes submersibles and semi-submersibles, structures for underwater operations, specialised sea and subsea vehicles, offshore structures, dredgers and so on — vessels and structures that are proposed to be handled for the first time at the Duqm facility. Several municipal and water projects under way in South Al Sharqiyah (Source: Oman Observer)  The Ministry of Regional Municipalities and Water Resources is currently carrying out a number of service projects in most wilayats of South Al Sharqiyah Governorate as part of the municipal and water projects undertaken by the ministry and aimed at developing the Omani urban centres and improving the services rendered to the citizens.  Among the projects under implementation are: development and beautification of the gateways and other areas, pavement and lighting of internal roads in a number of wilayats of the governorate.  Also, as part of its water conservation efforts, the ministry oversees the construction of the Wadi Al Filaij Dam.  So far four hydraulic-powered floodgates have already been installed and a group of workers received training on how to operate them. GBCM Morning Briefing 7
8. Oman News Acwa Power barka : Meeting of Board of Directors (Source: MSM)  A meeting of Board of Directors of ACWA Power Barka SAOG (the Company) was held on 7 June 2017. The Board unanimously made the following decision:  The Board reviewed and approved the audited financials of the Company for the period 01 January – 30 April 2017 with revenues of RO 20.791 Million as compared to RO 19.709 Million for the same period in 2016. The net profit for the period January 01 30 April 2017 was RO 0.048 Million as compared to RO 3.331 Million for the same period in 2016.  The Board approved the distribution of 23% cash dividend amounting to RO 3,680,000 (Rial Omani Three Million Six Hundred Eighty Thousand Only) based on the retained earnings as per audited financial statements as at 30 April 2017.  The record date for distribution of dividend is 18 June 2017. GBCM Morning Briefing 8
9. MSM - Market Watch Source : Bloomberg, GBCM Research Market Outlook – Fall in crude prices to weigh on markets… During the last trading session, except Dubai and Saudi we saw rest of the regional markets ending on a negative note amid prevailing geopolitical tensions. Qatar declined further by 1.0% for the day. Oman ended in red by declining 0.6%. For the day we anticipate the local and regional markets to see continued volatility as Crude oil prices dropped further into the red owing to a report showing US stockpiles increased. GBCM Morning Briefing 9
10. UAE News Emaar to offer 30pc real estate development business in IPO (Source: Trade Arabia)  Emaar Properties, a global real estate company, has announced plans to offer up to 30% of its UAE real estate development business in an initial public offering (IPO), which will be the largest since the Emaar Malls IPO in 2014.  The decision to list Emaar’s UAE real estate development business was a result of an internal review of Emaar’s asset values, said the company in a statement to Dubai bourse.  Subject to market conditions, the funds raised through the sale of equity will be primarily distributed as dividends to Emaar’s shareholders, said the top regional developer. This will help create significant value for its shareholders, it added.  Emaar said this indicated the importance of highlighting the value of this business as a major contributor to the overall profitability of the developer through an independent listing.  Investors who value the proven development track record of Emaar can invest directly in this business and benefit from the strong growth profile of the company’s UAE development business, it stated.  In turn, this will enhance Emaar’s overall valuation as the desirability of this important business is properly recognised in the market.  Emaar’s real estate development in the UAE has recorded significant growth over last five years. The real estate sales increased from Dh4.2 billion ($1.14 billion) in 2012 to Dh14.4 billion ($3.92 billion) in 2016. Until end of May 2017, the business recorded sales of Dh9.7 billion, 24 per cent above the same period in 2016.  Total backlog as at the end of May 2017 is Dh40 billion. This backlog represents the value of properties sold but where related revenues have not been recognised. GBCM Morning Briefing 10
11. GCC News S &P Global downgrades Qatar's credit rating (Source: Trade Arabia)  S&P Global reduced Qatar’s credit rating to AA- from AA in the latest fallout from the decision by a group of Middle Eastern countries to cut diplomatic and trade ties, media reports said.  "We believe this will exacerbate Qatar's external vulnerabilities and could put pressure on its economic growth and fiscal metrics," S&P said.  S&P said it expects Qatar's economic growth to slow, as regional trade falls and corporate profitability declines in the face of reduced confidence. It said there had been big “non-resident” deposits in Qatar's banks, and an increase in their lending to the government to fund infrastructure projects.  "In our opinion recent events have the potential to destabilise these no-resident deposits and provoke an outflow," said S&P. It said Qatar may need to use Qatar Investment Authority and sovereign wealth fund money, as well as central bank reserves to tackle any big outflow of funds.  The rating agency said Qatar's economy would suffer from the decision of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain to cut diplomatic and transport ties with Doha. They accused it of supporting terrorism, a charge that Qatar denies.  S&P put the rating on CreditWatch with negative implications, meaning there was a significant chance of a further downgrade, Reuters reported. Another major rating agency, Moody's Investors Service, assesses Qatar at Aa3, which is equal to S&P's new rating. Fitch Ratings puts Qatar at AA. Saudi Arabia to roll out second phase of white land tax in 2020 (Source: Argaam)  Saudi Arabia will implement the second phase of undeveloped land tax by 2020, Al-Hayat daily reported, citing Mohammed Almudaiheem, a supervisor for the white land tax scheme at the housing ministry.  The ministry may also impose white land fees on commercial areas in the near future, Almudaiheem said, without giving further details.  Meanwhile, he added that the Kingdom’s housing ministry is not planning to be a market maker or control real estate prices.  Saudi Arabia started levying the white land tax on undeveloped plots at the end of March, Argaam reported. The first phase applies the tax to undeveloped lands larger than 10,000 square meters. GBCM Morning Briefing 11
12. | Institutional Sales - Hunaina Banatwala, (+968) 2235 0717 |Institutional Brokerage - Talal Al Balushi, (+968) 2235 0725| | Equity Research - Kanaga Sundar, (+968) 2235 0727 | Vijay Sridharan, (+968) 2235 0728 | Disclaimer: This document has been prepared and issued by Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC ("the Company") on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. While all care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate and the opinions given are reasonable, neither Gulf Baader Capital Markets SAOC nor any employee shall be in anyway responsible for the contents of this report. The Company may have a position and may perform buying/selling for itself or its clients in any security mentioned in this report. This is not an offer to buy or sell the investments referred therein. 6/8/2017 GBCM Morning Briefing 12